Q3 09. Earnings Call

Transcription

1 Q3 09 Earnings Call November 3, 2009

2 Forwardlooking statements Certain statements contained in this presentation constitute forwardlooking statements. Such forwardlooking statements are based on management's current expectations and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the Company s actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forwardlooking statements. Such factors include, among others, the following: general economic and business conditions, both nationally and regionally; industry capacity; demographic changes; changes in, or the failure to comply with, laws and governmental regulations; the ability to enter into managed care provider arrangements on acceptable terms; changes in Medicare and Medicaid payments or reimbursement, including those resulting from a shift from traditional reimbursement to managed care plans; liability and other claims asserted against the Company; competition, including the Company s failure to attract patients to its hospitals; the loss of any significant customers; technological and pharmaceutical improvements that increase the cost of providing, or reduce the demand for, health care; a shortage of raw materials, a breakdown in the distribution process or other factors that may increase the Company s cost of supplies; changes in business strategy or development plans; the ability to attract and retain qualified personnel, including physicians, nurses and other health care professionals, including the impact on the Company s labor expenses resulting from a shortage of nurses or other health care professionals; the significant indebtedness of the Company; the availability of suitable acquisition opportunities and the length of time it takes to accomplish acquisitions; the Company's ability to integrate new businesses with its existing operations; and the availability and terms of capital to fund the expansion of the Company's business, including the acquisition of additional facilities. Certain additional risks and uncertainties are discussed in the Company s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company s annual report on Form 10K and quarterly reports on Form 10Q. Do not rely on any forwardlooking statement, as we cannot predict or control many of the factors that ultimately may affect our ability to achieve the results estimated. We make no promise to update any forwardlooking statement, whether as a result of changes in underlying factors, new information, future events or otherwise. NonGAAP Information This document includes certain financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA, which are not calculated in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Management recommends that you focus on the GAAP numbers as the best indicator of financial performance. These alternative measures are provided only as a supplement to aid in analysis of the Company. Reconciliation between nongaap measures and related GAAP measures can be found in our Q3 09 quarterly earnings release issued on November 3,

3 Trevor Fetter President & Chief Executive Officer

4 Q3 09 Highlights 50% growth in adjusted EBITDA for 2 nd consecutive quarter (1) 5.7% growth in net operating revenues (1) 0.6% decline in controllable costs PAPD (samehospital) Outlook range raised by $25mm to $925mm to $975mm $764mm YTD adjusted EBITDA 2009 YTD performance supported by: Solid revenue growth Excellent cost control Pricing growth inline with our objectives Admissions stabilizing Outpatient volume growth remains strong Bad debt less than initially anticipated 4 (1) Totalcompany, Q3 09 as compared to Q3 08

5 Cost control has been excellent 8% Controllable Expenses (1) per Adjusted Patient Day 6% YoY Growth 4% 2% 0% 2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q % 5 5 (1) Samehospital controllable expenses are defined as SWB, supplies, and other operating expenses.

6 Volume growth trends are favorable Samehospital Annual Growth 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Q1 2.0% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Paying O/P Visits (1) Total O/P Visits Paying Admits (1) Total Admits 10.0% (1) Paying admissions/visits are defined as total admissions/visits less charity and uninsured admissions/visits. 6 6

7 Outpatient visits continue to set the pace for volume growth 4.8% increase in outpatient visits (samehospital, Q3 09 vs Q3 08) 5.3% growth including Sierra Providence East (El Paso) in both quarters Commercial outpatient visits flat 4.4% growth in outpatient surgeries Outpatient growth driven by multiple factors: Capex focused on outpatient Newly added physician relationships show initial growth on the OP side Dedicated PRP reps focused on outpatient business Competition becoming less aggressive in OP OP s wider margins contributed to Q3 s margin expansion 7

8 Net revenue growth despite weak economy Samehospital YoY Growth 8% 6% 4% 2% 0.9% 1.9% 8.1% 6.6% 6.3% 6.4% 4.2% 4.1% 2.9% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9% 4.5% 3.9% 0% 2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 0.6% % 8

9 Bad debt increase remains manageable 15% 13% Bad Debt Expense / Net Revenues 11% 9% 7% 8.5% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.0% 5.7% 6.2% 6.5% 6.4% 6.7% 7.2% 7.6% 6.9% 7.5% 6.0% 5% 3% 1% 1% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q

10 Commercial managed care volumes: Stable OP, but commercial admissions remain soft 6.0% Annual Growth 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Commercial volumes (samehospital) Commercial O/P Visits Commercial Admissions 8.0% 10.0%

11 Outpatient volumes are establishing solid growth patterns 1,000,000 Samehospital Total O/P Visits 900,000 Paying O/P Visits 800,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 375,000 Commercial O/P Visits 325,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q

12 Adjusted EBITDA margin widened by 310bp from Q3 08 Adjusted EBITDA (1) Adjusted EBITDA Margin $ % 14% $ Millions $250 $200 $150 $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.5% $165 $163 $160 $159 $ % $200 $ % $ % $240 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Adjusted EBITDA Margin $50 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2% (1) Total company

13 Adjusted EBITDA building an attractive multiyear growth trend Total Company Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin $950 Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA Margin 11.3% 12% $ Millions $ % 8.1% $631 $ % $739 $764 10% 8% 6% Adjusted EBITDA Margin $ Sept '09 YTD 4% 13

14 Balance Sheet DeRisking 2011s and 2012s effectively moved out to 2015 and 2018 (Q1 09 transaction) 2014s effectively moved to 2019 (Q2 09 transaction) Next meaningful debt maturity is in 2013 (1) $345mm mandatory convertible preferred stock issued (Q3 09 transaction) Proceeds used for debt repurchase (2) Net Leverage Ratio (3) /31/08 9/30/09 (1) $1.0 billion matures on 2/1/13, $67mm maturing in 2011; $57mm maturing in (2) $308mm of % coupon debt repurchased in Q3 09. (3) Net Leverage Ratio defined as ratio of net debt (debt less cash and cash equivalents) to trailing 12 month Adjusted EBITDA. 14

15 (millions) $1,200 Nearterm debt maturities extended Existing 12/31/08 debt which remains outstanding Debt at 12/31/08 which was repurchased in 2009 Debt issued in 2009 $1, % (1) % % % $ % 9 % 10 % $600 $ % % $200 $ (1) Effective 5/2/2009 Tenet entered into an interest rate swap agreement that converts our 7.375% senior notes due 2013 to a variable interest rate based on the onemonth LIBOR plus a spread of 5.46%. 15

16 Q3 09 Summary Positive earnings momentum building towards $925mm to $975mm adjusted EBITDA outlook range for 2009 Strong cost culture in place Pricing gains reflect competitive strength of THC hospitals Total admissions growth turned positive Commercial admissions decline moderated relative to Q2 09 Outpatient growth trend maintained Bad debt has remained manageable 16

17 Stephen L. Newman, M.D. Chief Operating Officer

18 Strong cost culture Exceeded $188mm of gross cost savings objective for % decline in SW&B per adjusted patient day (samehospital) 27% decline in employee turnover 29% decline in registered nurse turnover 31% decline in overtime and contract labor expense ($23mm) 190bp decline in SW&B as % net revenue (42.2% in Q3 09 vs. 44.1% in Q3 08) 18

19 Strong cost culture... (continued) 40bp decline in supply expense % net revenue (17.2% Q3 09 vs. 17.6% Q3 09)... despite 2.2% increase in total surgeries and 4.4% growth in OP surgeries MPI Phase One rollout to 8 hospitals 13% decline in malpractice expense ($4mm Q3 09 versus Q3 08) 0.6% decline in controllable operating expenses PAPD (samehospital, Q3 09 v Q3 08) 19

20 Flurelated ED OP visits in Q3 09 were largely insured patients... No change from typical ED patient population Total ED OP Visits 1H 09 Flu ED OP Visits Q ,928 Total ED OP visits (YTD 6/30/09) 4,742 Flu ED OP Visits (Q3 09) 154,472 were uninsured 1,043 were uninsured 22% Percentage of uninsured ED OP patients is identical (22%): Q3 09 flurelated ED OP visits Compared to: 1H 09 total population of ED OP visits 20

21 Physician recruitment success provides foundation for future volume growth 22.2% net growth in active physicians since Jan. 1, 2007 Active physicians 11,603 Active (1/1/07) Net Growth of 846 or 7.3% Class of ,744 (898) 12,449 Active (12/31/07) Net Growth of 1,122 or 9.0% Class of ,068 (946) 13,571 Active (12/31/08) Net Growth of 606 or 6.0% (1) Class of ,542 (936) 14,177 Active (9/30/09) (1) Net growth in active physicians 12/31/08 to 9/30/09 is 606; growth rate of 6.0% annualizes YTD net increase. 21

22 Biggs C. Porter Chief Financial Officer

23 Pricing growth remains strong 3.7% increase in net patient revenue per admission 2.7% increase in net outpatient revenue per visit 4.2% increase in commercial managed care revenues, despite % decline in commercial managed care admissions Flat commercial managed care OP visits 23

24 Bad debt remains manageable $28mm increase in bad debt expense (Q3 09 over Q3 08, samehospital) P&L driver is the cost of providing care for charity and uninsured patients, net of collections, Not the reported bad debt expense $12mm increase cost of care (1), net of collections, for uninsured and charity (Q3 09 over Q3 08) (1) Fully burdened cost, excluding depreciation 24

25 Charity + Uninsured volumes have begun to grow but remain manageable Samehospital 12.0% Quarterly Growth 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% Admissions Outpatient Visits

26 2009 Outlook Assumptions Revised Assumptions Prior Assumptions (9/14/09) Admissions growth (1) (%) n/c (0.5) 0.5 Outpatient visits growth (1) (%) n/c Net operating revenues growth (%) n/c Net operating revenues ($Bil) Controllable operating expenses ($Bil) n/c Bad debt ratio (%) n/c Bad debt expense ($mm) n/c Adjusted EBITDA (3) ($mm) Depreciation and Amortization ($mm) n/c Interest Expense, Net ($mm) n/c Income from continuing operations before income taxes (3) ($mm) Net income from cont. ops. (normalized at 37.1% tax rate) (3) ($mm) Preferred stock dividends ($mm) (6) n/a Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests ($mm) n/c (8) (13) Net income attributable to common shareholders ($mm) E.P.S. (normalized at 37.1% tax rate, continuing operations) (2) ($) n/c (2) (1) Samehospital annual growth versus prior year (2) Revenue assumption increased by $25mm, but this increase was insufficiently large to be visible given rounding of assumptions to nearest $100mm (3) Excludes impairments, restructuring charges, litigation costs, net gains (losses) on sales of investments, and net gain on early extinguishment of debt 26

27 Line # adjusted EBITDA walkforward (Continuing operations) ($mm) Revenue Bad Debt Expense Control Cost Adjusted EBITDA (a) 8,585 (628) (7,218) Volume assuming constant mix (b) 65 (5) (35) 25 3 impact from adverse mix shift (37) (2) (39) 4 Pricing Base Line Increase/Adj (c) 317 (28) Managed Care (d) Costs Base Line Inflation (e) (253) (253) 7 Cost Reduction Initiatives (f) Bad Debt impact of rate differential only (g) (50) (50) 9 Other (h) 57 (7) (23) Total Upper End of Adjusted EBITDA Range 9,036 (720) (7,341) Allowance for Risk (i) (50) 12 Total Lower End of Adjusted EBITDA Range Revised Outlook Nov. 3, 2009 Change Prior Outlook (09/09) (a) 2008 financials restated for NorthShore Regional Medical Center reclassification to discontinued operations (b) Assumes admissions growth of 0.2% and outpatient visit growth of 3.7%, using 2008 average pricing. Margin assumption on incremental revenues 40%. (c) Base line pricing increases of approximately 3.5% and certain PYCA/Settlement activity. This assumption before discrete initiatives valued in this analysis. (d) Rate parity price increases in existing contracts and anticipated future increases plus $7mm from P4P payments. (e) Inflation rate of 3.5% reflects normal merit increases, union contract adjustments, supply cost increases and other items before discrete initiatives valued in this analysis. (f) Full year impact of cost initiatives initiated in late 2008; malpractice reductions; plus original $29mm in 2008 s estimates as previously disclosed (g) Assumes 2009 bad debt ratio of approximately 7.9%, a 30 basis point increase over our Q4 08 bad debt ratio of 7.6%. Bad debt ratio was 7.3% in (h) Includes impact of Sierra Providence East Medical Center (El Paso) and Coastal Carolina Hospital. (i) Various risks including volume growth, volume mix, and bad debt create at least $50 million in uncertainties for 2009 performance. This schedule is not intended to provide a series of spot estimates or line item guidance. Other combinations of line item performance could produce the same or higher or lower results (39) (253) 188 (50) (50) 900

28 2009 Cash Walk Forward ($mm) Low Revised High Change Low Prior High 2009 EBITDA Add Back: Stock Compensation Charges Changes in Cash from Operating Assets and Liabilities (120) (100) (120) (100) Interest Payments (420) (435) (420) (435) Adjusted Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities Cont. Ops Capital Expenditures Cont. Ops. (425) (400) (425) (400) Adjusted Free Cash Flow Cont. Ops. (20) (45) 40 Income Tax Refunds Payments against Reserves for Restructuring Charges, Litigation Costs and Settlements (195) (185) (195) (185) Net Cash Provided by (Used In) Operating Activities from Disc. Ops Investing Activities, Reserve Fund, Divestitures and Other Net Financing Activities (130) (120) (130) (120) Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents (7) 128 Cash and Cash Equivalents December 31, Cash and Cash Equivalents December 31,

29 Sept 30 Dec 31, 2009 Cash Walk Forward ($mm) EBITDA Outlook (Q4 09) Add Back: Stock Compensation Charges 2 7 Changes in Cash from Operating Assets and Liabilities (81) (61) Interest Payments (80) (95) Adjusted Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities Cont. Ops Capital Expenditures Cont. Ops. Adjusted Free Cash Flow Cont. Ops. Net Decrease in Cash and Cash Equivalents Cash and Cash Equivalents September 30, 2009 Cash and Cash Equivalents December 31, 2009 (161) (159) Income Tax Refunds (Payments) 10 Payments against Reserves for Restructuring Charges, Litigation Costs and Settlements Low (206) (136) (74) (30) (20) Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities from Disc. Ops. (3) 7 Investing Activities, Reserve Fund, Divestitures and Other 1 11 Net Financing Activities (15) (5) High (71)

30 October (1) volume growth (2) 0.9% increase in total admissions 0.3% increase in paying admissions 5.9% decrease in commercial managed care admissions 9.4% increase in uninsured + charity admissions 30 (1) Volume data for first four full 7day weeks of Oct (Oct. 1 Oct 28), samehospital (Q3 09 vs Q3 08) (2) Outpatient visit data is not yet available

31 Summary Strong Q3 09 performance: Solid revenue growth Excellent cost control Strong cash flow Outpatient volume acceleration has mitigated revenue impact of softer commercial admissions Bad debt pressures have been manageable Further upside potential if stability in: Bad debt Payer mix State government reimbursement Confident in our strategies 31