Prospects of Graduation from the LDC category for African LDCs

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1 Prospects of Graduation from the LDC category for African LDCs Accelerating the implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action for African LDCs Dakar, 28 February 2017 Matthias Bruckner Committee for Development Policy Secretariat UN-DESA

2 Structure 1. The CDP and the LDCs 2. The LDC category 3. Graduation trends 4. Prospects for graduation 5. Additional information

3 THE CDP AND THE LDCS

4 Mandates Committee for Development Policy (CDP) : Subsidiary body of the United Nations ECOSOC Meets annually in New York 24 independent experts Policy advice Identification of LDCs since 1971: Triennial reviews (since 1991) Methodology and process (refined over time) Monitoring of graduating and graduated LDCs (DESA/DPAD): Dissemination of CDP work Substantive support LDC Portal on support measures Capacity development

5 THE LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRY CATEGORY

6 LDC criteria and indicators LDCs are low-income countries suffering from the most severe structural impediments to sustainable development. GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI) Percentage of population undernourished Under-five mortality rate Maternal mortality rate Gross secondary school enrolment ratio Adult literacy rate Population Remoteness Merchandise export concentration Share of agriculture, forestry and fisheries in GDP Share of population in low elevated coastal zones Victims of natural disasters Instability of agriculture production Instability of exports of goods and services

7 Graduation eligibility Country passes thresholds of any 2 criteria GNI and HAI; or GNI and EVI; or HAI and EVI. Or: Income > twice income graduation threshold Not mechanic: impact assessment, vulnerability profile, country views taken into account

8 Graduation procedures Several years Multi-stage process Multiple actors Based on rigorous methodology Objective: no country to fall back into the category

9 STATUS IN PROGRESS TOWARDS GRADUATION

10 Overview of graduation trends I. The period : Expansion 25 countries on first LDC list; 16 in Africa 23 additional countries joined; 16 in Africa II. The period : Plateau 3 countries graduated; 2 in Africa Botswana, Cabo Verde 4 additional countries joined; 3 in Africa Angola, Eritrea, Senegal III. The period since 2011: Shrinking 1 country joined; South Sudan 4 countries graduated or are graduating; 2 in Africa Equatorial Guinea, Angola Share of African LDCs slowly increasing

11 Current situation 7 additional LDCs met the graduation criteria in the 2015 triennial review Most will be considered by the CDP in 2018 for possible graduation Only one of the seven is in Africa: Sao Tome and Principe Share of African LDCs could increase more drastically

12 MEETING THE GRADUATION CRITERIA: PROSPECTS

13 Latest available data African LDCs non-african LDCs Graduation thresholds

14 Income: growth acceleration needed in difficult global economic environment

15 HAI: solid progress; still lagging behind

16 EVI: Limited progress in Africa

17 Summing up. Progress towards graduation has been very limited among African LDCs Share of African LDCs could further increase Higher economic growth needed, but not sufficient Low human assets and high vulnerability to economic and environmental shocks major constraints Need to expand productive capacities for sustainable development Requires integrated policies by LDCs Development governance; industrial and sectoral policies; social polices; macro- and financial policies International support by partners necessary

18 Thank You Contact: Matthias Bruckner Committee for Development Policy Secretariat Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations /UN-DESA

19 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

20 Handbook on the LDC category Updates previous version (2008) Methodological changes Smooth transition and monitoring provisions French version coming up soon Also available from CDP website: desa/policy/cdp/cdp_ldcs_handbook. shtml

21 LDC Country Snapshots Individual country information 2015 Triennial review Criteria indicators Available in two formats: Category: 48 countries Individual snapshots

22 LDC data and further information

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