JP Morgan 7th Annual - Global Emerging Markets Corporate Conference March, 2016
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1 JP Morgan 7th Annual - Global Emerging Markets Corporate Conference March, 2016 FIBRIA APP WITH THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT APPLE STORE AND GOOGLE PLAY.
2 2 Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the company s filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
3 1 Company 2 Pulp 3 Financial 4 Final Overview and Paper Market and Operational Highlights Remarks Agenda 3
4 Company Overview 4
5 Shareholder Structure and Corporate Governance Votorantim S.A. (1) 29.42% BNDES Participações (1) 29.08% Free Float (2) 41.50% Fiscal Council General Meeting Board of Directors 20% independent members Role of CEO and chairman is split Finance Committee Statutory Audit Committee Personnel and Remuneratio n Committee Sustainability Committee Innovation Committee 30% independent members 100% independent members 50% independent members 45% independent members - Only 1 class of shares 100% voting rights 100% tag along rights (Brazilian corporate law establishes 80%) Board of Directors with minimum 20% independent members Listed on Novo Mercado, highest level at BM&FBovespa: Financial Statements in International Standards IFRS Adoption of Arbitration Chamber SEC Registered ADR Level III program Policies approved by the Board of Directors: Indebtedness and Liquidity Market Risk Management Risk Management Corporate Governance Related Parties Transactions Anti-Corruption Information Disclosure Securities Trading Antitrust Genetically Modified Eucalyptus Dividend Policy Sustainability NEW (1) Controlling group (2) Free Float 41.44% + Treasury 0.06% 5
6 Pulp and Paper Market 6
7 7 Fibria s Commercial Strategy Sales Mix by End Use - Fibria Highlights Region - 4Q15 End Use - 4Q15 Worldwide presence Europe 42% LatAm 9% N. America 29% Asia 20% Tissue 50% Net Revenues by Region - Fibria Specialties 15% Printing & Writing 35% 10% 9% 10% 8% 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 9% 22% 25% 26% 21% 25% 26% 26% 27% 24% 23% 26% 26% 25% 20% 26% 30% 22% 29% 31% 31% 19% 23% 27% 27% 17% 24% 25% 29% Strong global customer base Long-term relationships Focus on customers with stable business Customized pulp products and services Sound forestry and industrial R&D Focus on less volatile end-use markets such as tissue Efficient logistics set up Low dependence on volatile markets such as China Low credit risk 100% certified pulp (FSC and PEFC/Cerflor) 42% 37% 43% 43% 35% 36% 46% 42% 39% 40% 47% 42% 42% 42% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Europe North America Asia Other
8 The better than expected scenario has become a reality again in BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2015 IN DEC 14 REALIZED SCENARIO IN 2015 Suzano Maranhão Montes del Plata Suzano Maranhão Montes del Plata Oji Nantong CMPC Guaiba II Eldorado Portucel Cacia Old Town (Expera) Sappi Cloquet April Rizhao Ence Huelva Possible closures* Net to ,415 to 1,815 Oji Nantong CMPC Guaiba II Eldorado Portucel Cacia Old Town (Expera) Ence Navia Sappi Cloquet April Rizhao Ence Huelva Unexpected Downtimes Net Indonesia, China, Uruguay and Brazil 1,450 BEKP demand growth** 1,095 BEKP demand growth** 1230 *Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr) **Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp December 2014 **Source: PPPC Market Pulp World 20
9 9 and so has been the price scenario BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t) Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Annual 2015 Consultants average at the end previous year Realized PIX/FOEX price Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2014 for 2015 prices)
10 Better worldwide macroeconomics are the key drivers But the special focus is on Europe 10 Real GDP % Annual Growth 7,7 7,7 7,3 6,9 6,3 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,1 3,5 0,9 1,5 1,7 2,2 1,5 2,4 2,4 2,4-0,8-0,3 World Euro Area USA China Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, January 2016
11 11 But the special focus is on Europe Hardwood and Eucalyptus Shipments (000 t and % annual growth) % 3.8% 5.0% 3.3% % -0.8% -0.8% -0.6% BHKP BEKP Source: PPPC World 20
12 12 So, what can we expect for 2016? BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2016 IN NOV 15 FIBRIA S EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2016 CMPC Guaiba II 800 CMPC Guaiba II 800 Klabin 660 Klabin 660 Altri Celbi 30 Altri Celbi 30 Old Town (Expera) -40 Old Town (Expera) -40 Woodland -90 Woodland -90 Verso Wickliffe -55 Verso Wickliffe -55 APRIL Kerinci -120 APRIL Kerinci -120 Possible closures* -400 to -800 Possible closures* -200 Net 385 to 785 Net 985 BEKP demand growth** BEKP demand growth** 1500 *Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr) **Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp May 2015 (930kt) and Fibria s estimates Positive Supply/Demand Balance!
13 Global Market BEKP Demand Shipments of Eucalyptus Pulp 8% CAGR vs (2) 7% 3,787kt Total 7% 387 kt 662 kt North America 3% Western Europe 19% 1,980 kt China 6% 758 kt Others 1,232 kt Total 5% 90 kt North America 5% 330 kt Western Europe 14% 611 kt China 4% 201 kt Others (1) Source: PPPC World 20 January/2015 December/2015 (2) Source: PPPC World 20 Dec/2015 Paper Capacity increase in China FORECAST REALIZED PREVIOUS FORECAST LATEST FORECAST LATEST FORECAST Woodfree ,000 Tissue 1,390 1,278 1, Cartonboard 2,100 1, Total 3,746 2,860 2,855 2,845 2,198 Source: Fibria and Independent Consultants 13
14 Technical Age and Scale in the Pulp Industry Further closures are expected due to lack of adequate investments in the industry 14 Hardwood (BHKP) Producers Integrated and Market Pulp Mills Softwood (BSKP) Producers Integrated and Market Pulp Mills 2000 PM Capacity, 1000 t/a Aracruz Weighted average technical age 12.3 years STRONG PM Capacity, 1000 t/a Weighted average technical age 21 years STRONG Weighted average capacity 1,350,000 t/a Jacareí Veracel Três Lagoas Weighted average capacity 534,000 t/a 0 30 WEAK Technical age, years WEAK Technical age, years 5 0 North American Pulp Mills Other Pulp Mills More than 6.6 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.
15 BHKP prices - CIF Europe (US$/ton) Capacity (000 ton) 15 Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor influencing pulp price volatility. (1) List Price bottoming at US$650/t in 2011 and US$724/t in APP South Sumatra (2) Horizonte II 2,0 1, APP Hainan Fray Bentos Mucuri Veracel Nueva Aldea Rizhao Três Lagoas Maranhão Eldorado Montes del Plata Guaíba II Klabin 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Valdivia Santa Fé Kerinci PL3 APP Guangxi Chenming Zhanjiang Oji Nantong 0,8 0, , , ,0 (1) Source: Hawkins Wright, Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (Dec/15), Brian McClay (Dec./15) and RISI (Jan/16) (2) Partially integrated production.
16 Dec-99 May-00 Oct-00 Mar-01 Aug-01 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 In the last 15 years, pulp volatility has been just 8%...why? 160 BHKP - FOEX Europe (base 100) CPI (base 100) Market price closer to producer s marginal cost The marginal cost producers are based in Europe and North America Flattish industry cost curve Higher flexibility to adjust supply side during imbalanced market Lower dependency on Asian market (~25%) compared to hard commodities (70%+) Market end users are linked to consumer goods, such as tissue Incipient pulp price futures market and low liquidity Source: Bloomberg February 1, 2016
17 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Lowest volatility among commodities = January 1, Iron Ore Soy Bean Crude Oil Sugar BHKP - FOEX Europe Exchange Rate (R$/US$) Low volatility of hardwood pulp price, even though new capacities have come on stream during the period. Source: Bloomberg February 22,
18 The only commodity with lower volatility than FX Historical Volatility of Commodities (US$) 37% 35% 34% 27% 26% 25% 24% 24% 16% 14% 6% WTI Crude Oil Sugar Nickel Copper Soy Iron Ore Ibovespa LME Metals Cattle FX FOEX PIX BHKP Since 2009 until feb/16 18
19 Financial and Operational Highlights 19
20 Each 5% depreciation of the Real increases EBITDA by around R$403m (11%) and FCF by R$482 m (45%) Exchange Rate Average (R$/US$) E 4.20 (1) Fibria net pulp price (US$/t) (2) Fibria net pulp price (R$/t) 912 1,179 1,067 1,133 1,311 1,344 1,951 2,348 53% EBITDA Margin 29% 40% 1,488 34% 36% 1,173 1,153 40% 39% 1,295 1,185 1, EBITDA (US$ million) (1) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank February 19, 2016) I (2) 2016 market consensus 20
21 21 Cash Production Cost (US$/t) 4Q (56) (14) (10) 148 4Q14 Inflation FX Lower energy price Maintenance downtime Non recurring wood Non recurring energy consumption Cash cost 4Q15 Total non recurring Maintenance downtime 4Q15 recurring cash cost ex-downtime Management initiatives gains partially offset the inflation impact
22 Cash Production Cost in dollars saw a decrease over the past 7 years Fibria Cash Production Cost (1) (US$/ton) Consistently controlling the production cash cost 2009 (2) 2010 (2) (1) Constant Currency (2) Excludes Conpacel 22
23 23 Net Results (US$ million) ,600 (909) (249) - (101) 107-0, Adjusted EBITDA FX Debt MtM Hedge Net Interest (567) Deprec., amortiz.and depletion 155 Taxes (1) Others Net Income Non-recurring effects (1) Includes other exchange rate/monetary variations, other financial income/expenses and other operating income/expenses. Dividend proposal of US$90 million, representing 84% of net income.
24 24 Free Cash Flow (1) LTM 4Q15 US$ million 1,600 (484) (89) (151) (23) ( 223 ) 636 Adjusted EBITDA Capex (ex-h2 project & land deal) Net Interest Working Capital Taxes Others FCF (ex-h2 project & land deal) (3) Capex H2 & land deal FCF (1) Not considering dividend payments, capex related to the Horizonte 2 Project and the land acquisition in December (2) Not considering dividend payments. (3) Includes other financial results.
25 ROE and ROIC (US$) ROE = Adjusted EBIT (1) / Equity before IAS 41 (2) ROIC = Adjusted EBIT (3) / Invested Capital before IAS 41 (2) 25.1% 32.0% 22.8% 29.2% 4.8% 3.4% 5.7% 6.2% 3.9% 6.9% 9.2% 8.0% Annualized 4Q15 US$ Annualized 4Q15 US$ Average FX 3.84 (1) Adjusted EBITDA CAPEX Net Interest Taxes (2) International accounting standards for biological assets. (3) Adjusted EBITDA CAPEX Taxes 25 25
26 (1) G-spread on February 25, One of the best performances among Brazilian corporate issuers (1) FIBRIA BRFOODS BRAZIL SUZANO EMBRAER GLOPAR KLABIN BRASKEM VALE GERDAU
27 27 Strong Credit Quality Interest expense, leverage and average cost of debt in US$ Historical G-spread (bps) (1) Leverage 4.6 Cost of debt Interest Expense (US$ million) Fibria 2020 Fibria 2021 Fibria (1) BBB- BBB- Ba1
28 Horizonte 2 Project 28
29 29 Why expand Três Lagoas? ESTIMATED BHKP CAPACITY RANKING 2017 (000T) Brownfield Project, synergies with current operations Modern plant, prepared for potential expansion Availability of wood and low average distance from forest to mill Forest based on the optionality concept and prioritizing lease and partnership models Additional energy surplus of 120 MWh Start-up: 4Q2017 Capacity: 1.85 million tons Fibria 7,950 CMPC RGE/APRIL Suzano APP Eldorado UPM Stora Enso Arauco Cenibra ENCE Altri IP Marubeni Mitsubishi Oji Mondi Nippon Paper Verso Resolute Georgia-Pacific Portucel Soporcel Lwart Pulp Mill Holding Domtar Klabin Others Current Capacity New Capacity New Capacity Klabin Agreement New Capacity Horizonte II Project Source: Poyry and Fibria Analysis (as of May 2015)
30 Even more competitive cash production cost w/ H2 BHKP (US$/t) BHKP capacity (000 t) 2,025 1,445 1,030 2,210 4,595 3,520 14,065 Total: 28,890 BHKP (US$/t) Working Capital Interest Capex Income Tax SG&A China USA Canada Iberia Chile/Uruguay Indonesia Brazil Fibria 2015 Fibria w/ H2 Cash Cost (US$/t) Delivery CIF Europe Source: Hawkins Wright (Price Forecast December 2015) and Fibria s 4Q15 Earnings Release - FX considered by the consultant at R$/US$3.87. H2 cash cost was estimated according to weighted average cost, after mill balance, converted at R$3.87. Includes energy sales. 30
31 Expansion CAPEX update From US$2.5 bi to US$2.2 bi 31 CAPEX (US$ billion) Timetable 60% 2% 26% % % 33% 72% 72% 3% 3% 1% Original Revised BRL EUR USD and others and thereafter FX and inflation partially offset by the negotiation with suppliers
32 Funding Cost and maturity: 4Q15 H2 4Q15 + H2 Average Cost (US$ p.a) 3.3% 2.0% 2.8% Average Maturity (years) Amortization Schedule 4Q15 Proforma with TLS II US$ million Capex H2: 1, BNDES Bond PPE NCE ACC/ACE CRA ECA Outros FDCO Total (1) Considering swap transactions. (2) Debt FX 3Q15: / FX considering new funding for the TLS II Project:
33 Project financials at a glance UNIT R$ US$ Pulp production/year k tons 1,850 1,850 Expansion capex (1) $ billion Expansion capex (1) $/t 4,702 1,204 Sustaining capex (2) $/t Cash cost (3) $/t Energy surplus MWh (1) Includes chemical leasing and investments in order to increase capacity to 1,850 kt/year. (2) Estimated sustaining capex in perpetuity considering capacity of 1,850 kt/year. (3) Estimated weighted average cost, after mill balance. Includes energy sales. Note: FX 2015:
34 Final Remarks 34
35 35 Fibria s structural fundamentals drive the leading return metrics Less volatile commodity in US$ Costs in BRL The highest forest productivity worldwide Operational excellence Unique customer base with steady sales volumes through long-term contracts Low cost of debt Strong corporate governance High ROE/ROIC in the long-term
36 * Considering dividend of R$149 million paid in May and R$ 2 billion paid in December 2015 on Market Cap. on September 30 th, Dividends Management proposal for 2016 OGM: Mandatory dividend: R$81.3 million OGM date: April 27 th, 2016 Additional dividend: R$218.7 million Total dividend proposal: R$300.0 million Dividend policy states that in addition to the dividend proposed for the OGM, management can propose an extraordinary dividend throughout the year according to free cash flow generation and without jeopardizing credit metrics Dividend yield in 2015* = 7.5% Apr. 28, 2015 May 14, 2015 Oct. 22, 2015 Nov. 30, 2015 Dec. 9, 2015 OGM: Dividend distribution approval: minimum compulsory + additional Dividend Payment of US$49 million Dividend Policy Approval EGM: Interim Dividend Payment Approval Dividend Payment of US$532 million
37 37 Fibria is able to create value for its shareholders with capital discipline FREE CASH FLOW BIO-ENERGY AND INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION? PULP Growth with discipline Best portfolio of projects DIVIDENDS OTHER OPPORTUNITIES Complementary to pulp Portocel Land and forest WITHOUT JEOPARDIZING CREDIT METRICS
38 Backup 38
39 Forestry Logistics Low average distance from forest to mill 39 FOREST MILL 95 km H1 + H2 consolidated
40 40 Pulp sales destination: Fibria growing where the market grows 37% 43% 19% 25% 36% 24% 4% 8% Total sales volume distribution after H2 start up (2) Current net revenue distribution (1) (1) Considers 4Q15 last twelve months. (2) Includes Klabin s sales volume
41 Outbound logistics Fibria has logistical alternatives on a competitive basis 41 Data Collection / Preliminary Analysis Ports Highways Railroads Waterways Analysis Logistics Costs Opex - Rates Capex Qualitative Modal conditions Mato Grosso Goiás Brasilia Mato Grosso do Sul
42 We don t think that such competitiveness is easily replicable, since the scenario is becoming more complex Land Public funding constraints Infrastructure/Logistics Governance standards Certified wood availability Environmental requirements Cost of capital Credit rating Although some potential brownfields are listed, there are significant challenges.
43 Rating agencies understand that the Project will not jeopardize Fibria s credit metrics 43 We expect Fibria to continue benefiting from higher operating cash flows which would allow it to enlarge its Três Lagoas industrial complex while keeping its debt at reasonable levels for a low investment-grade rating Fitch s base case, which assumes that the company builds a new pulp mill (Três Lagoas II) starting in 2015 and uses net pulp prices of between USD575 and USD675 per ton during the construction period, results in net leverage reaching 3.5x (1). Net leverage would quickly decline to around 2.5x (1) once the mill becomes operational in the second half of 2017 (1) According to rating agency methodology
44 Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among its Latin American peers Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1) Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Fibria Suzano Klabin CMPC Arauco Eldorado Fibria Arauco CMPC Klabin Suzano S&P BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Negative BB+/Stable Moody s Ba1/Negative Baa3/Stable Baa3/Negative - Ba2+/Stable Fitch BBB-/Stable BBB/Stable BBB+/Stable BBB-/Stable BB/Positive (1) Fibria s historical data in BRL. 44
45 Free Cash Flow US$ million Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 EBITDA Margin 34% 33% 28% 30% 37% 37% 41% 39% 39% 41% 42% 41% 35% 35% 45% 50% 50% 56% 54% Average FX (1) Before expansion capex 45
46 46 Structural Competitiveness 1. Third-party wood reduction NPV: US$0.4 billion 2. Forestry operations productivity NPV: US$0.6 billion 3. Industrial NPV: US$0.1 billion Total : US$1.1 billion
47 47 1. Third-party wood reduction Wood supply recovering to normal condition Peaking in 2016; Returning to 2012 s levels by the end of 2017; NPV of R$1.4 billion from peak to normalized level. 100% Third-party wood decrease will benefit opex andcapex 80% 60% 40% Estimated level for % 0%
48 1. Third-party wood reduction 48 Losango Most part of the standing wood was already paid Despite the higher forest to mill distance, the wood from Losango is less expensive than the available wood from around Espírito Santo and Bahia States Positive impact over industrial costs due to better productivity
49 49 2. Forestry operations productivity Structural change improving competitiveness CLASSIFYING THE FOREST BASE BY CATEGORIES 45% 40% 35% 36% 40% 33% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10% 10% 20% 20% 15% 10% 6% 0% 01 - Diamond 02 - Gold 03 - Silver 04 - Bronze 05 - Lead Current effective area Future effective area The distribution costs by classes helps us to apply resources in order to optimize wood production
50 50 2. Forestry operations productivity Identifying opportunities based on these combinations Possible Restrictions Possible Impediments Declivity 0: Higher than 35 1: Btw 24 and 35 2: Btw 0 and 24 Conservation Areas 0: Within CAs (1) 1: Within EPA (2) and EBZ (3) 2: Out of EPAs and EBZ Municipal Restrictions 0: Total restrictions 1: Partial restrictions 2: No restrictions EPA Altitude 0: Higher than 1800m 1: Lower than 1800m Urban Zones 0: Urban Zones 1: Outside urban areas Remnants of native vegetation 0: Remnants areas 1: Outside remnants areas Possible combinations X 0, 1 and 2, removed; (1) Conservation Areas (2) Envionmental Protection Areas (3) Environmental Buffer Zones 4 e 8, high potential
51 51 2. Forestry operations productivity Cost and Capex KPI s were also included in this geo-model Silviculture Harvest Roads Transportation
52 52 2. Forestry operations productivity Harvest Mixed Harvest Mechanization (Hilly areas) PROJECT DESCRIPTION (JACAREÍ UNIT) Mixed cutting operation with high demand for MO and high risk to safety; Harvest limitations in areas above 24 degrees; Increase annual capacity to harvest in areas up to 35 degrees, previously "locked up" by harvesting capacity of manual staff; NPV: R$71 million Capex: R$5 million Operational since Aug 2015
53 53 2. Forestry operations productivity Transportation PIFF Timber transportation Woodchip transportation PROJECT DESCRIPTION (ARACRUZ, JACAREÍ AND TRÊS LAGOAS UNITS) Freight cost reduction; Increased load box for timber/woodchip transport Use of lightweight steel; Operational risk reduction (flipping); Investment: R$33 million NPV: R$139 million Startup: 2015 / 2016
54 54 2. Forestry operations productivity Transportation Maritime Wood Shipping Project PROJECT DESCRIPTION (ARACRUZ UNIT) Capex and Opex reduction; Capex: R$38 million Increase in cargo handling due to increase in NPV: R$95 million stack height volume Startup: Jan/2017 Reduction in heavy truck road traffic
55 55 2. Structural change in forestry operations productivity Structural cost reduction of R$170 million per year (Capex + Opex) in 2020; NPV of approximately R$2 billion Seek opportunities for purchase / lease of more attractive areas, divest from unattractive land/forest, as well as the implementation of technologies that will lead us to the structural cost NPV Expected Curve 100% 90% 100% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 10%
56 56 3. Industrial: maintenance downtimes schedule change Mills Aracruz A Aracruz B 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 No maintenance downtime No maintenance downtime Aracruz C Jacareí No maintenance downtime Três Lagoas No maintenance downtime Veracel No maintenance downtime 12 months 15 months Regulatory Standard 13 (Boiler and Pressure Vessel Inspection) extended the maximum period between recovery boiler inspections from 12 to 15 months. Fibria was the first company to use the extended period benefit NPV: R$385 million
57 57 3. Industrial: Biological Sludge Dryer Biological Sludge Dryness Process Operational Flow Conditioning and biological sludge burn Sludge drying and burn in biomass boiler Effluent+Sludge Aeration 00Tank Biological Sludge Tank Sludge Dryer Biomass 00 Boiler Biomass Pile PROJECT DESCRIPTION (JACAREÍ UNIT) Variable cost reduction associated with the disposal of sludge operations in external landfill Capex: R$18 million NPV: R$100 million Startup: Dec./2016
58 Fibria s tax structure TAX BENEFITS (1) Fiscal - annual adjustment Tax loss carry forward and tax credits Benefit Amount Maturity Benefit Amount Goodwill (Aracruz acquisition) Annual tax deduction: US$23 million (tax) Remaining Balance Sept/15: US$ billion (base) 2018 Tax loss carryforward Balance up to Dec./15: US$33 million (base) Balance Dec./15: - PIS/COFINS: US$186 million Forestry Capex in Mato Grosso do Sul state 2015 tax deduction related to depletion: US$9.4 million Undefined Accumulated tax credits - Withholding tax (IR and CSLL): R$195 million - Befiex: US$91 million - Reintegra: US$23 million TAX PAYMENT (cash basis) (2) US$ 9 million US$ 2 million US$ 8 million US$ 14 million US$ 12 million US$ 23 million (1) Considering FX (2) Considering average FX for the period. 58
59 Leadership Position Industry Outlook (1) Fiber Consumption 412 million t Recycled Fiber 242 million t 59% 41% Pulp 169 million t Mechanical 30 million t 18% 82% Chemical 140 million t 59% Integrated Mills 83 million t 41% Market Pulp 57 million t 46% 54% Softwood/Other 26 million t Hardwood 31 million t 30% 70% Acacia/Other 9 million t Eucalyptus 21 million t 75% Other Eucalyptus Pulp producers: 16 million t 25% (1) Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Global 100 Report December
60 Global Market Pulp Demand Hardwood demand will continue to increase at a faster pace than Softwood Hardwood (BHKP) vs. Softwood (BSKP) (000 ton) Demand growth rate CAGR: Hardwood: +2.5% Softwood: +0.8% 000 ton Growth Growth Hardwood % 36% Eucalyptus % 52% Softwood % 16% Source: PPPC report (Sept. 2015) Hardwood Softwood Market Pulp % 27% Source: PPPC reports. Excludes Sulphite and UKP market pulp (Sept./15) Paper Production Runnability with BHKP Source: RISI conference, August
61 Benefiting From China s Growth China s Hardwood Imports of BHKP by Country (1) ( 000s t) BHKP Total Latin America (1) Latin America is the leading exporter of BHKP to China, accounting to approximately 53% of China's total imports in Indonesia Others(2) USA Canada Western Europe (1) includes South Africa and New Zealand. (2) Includes China, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand and Vietnam. (million t) World Tissue Consumption, (3) LTM Growth Rate +4.2% (kg/person/year) N.America W.Europe E.Europe L.America Middle East Japan China Asia FE Oceania Africa 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Between 2005 and 2014, the Chinese market share of eucalyptus shipments increased by 19 p.p. (total market pulp: + p.p.) 10% 10% China's Share of Market Pulp (2) 12% 14% 21% 17% 22% (million t) 23% 23% 23% Eucalyptus Hardwood Total % Compared to the global Market Pulp (1) PPPC Pulp China Flash Report September 2015 (2) PPPC W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity (3) RISI Per Capita Consumption of Tissue by World Region (3) (Kg/capita/year) N. West America Europe 12 Japan Oceania 7 East Europe 6 5 LatAm China Africa 1 61
62 Commodities Differentiation China GDP breakdown 8% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 44% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 46% 47% 45% 45% 49% 49% 48% 49% 49% 50% 50% 52% 51% 53% 53% 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Consumption Investment Net Exports China commodity demand - basis 100 Corn Soybeans Wheat Crude oil Iron ore Sugar BHKP A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Source: Itaú Macroeconomic Department and PPPC Oct/
63 Global Paper Consumption CAGR Developed Markets: + 1.7% Emerging Markets : + 6.0% 117,611 CAGR Developed Markets: - 4.0% Emerging Markets : + 4.1% 114,507 85,291 P&W Consumption (000 tons) (1) Developed Markets Emerging Markets CAGR Developed Markets: + 2.4% Emerging Markets : + 6.9% 26,877 CAGR Developed Markets: + 1.4% Emerging Markets : + 6.7% 37,474 15,548 Tissue Consumption (000 tons) (1) Developed Markets Emerging Markets Source: RISI 63
64 Capacity closures DO happen Closures of Hardwood Capacity Worldwide (000 ton) ,260-1,180-1, E (1) Source: PPPC and Fibria (1) As of January : -40kt Old Town (USA), -90kt Woodland (USA), -55kt Verso Wickliffe (USA), -120 April Kerinci (Indonesia) 2017: -275kt Arauco Valdivia (Chile) 64
65 65 Growth rate Chinese GDP vs. Eucalyptus Shipments to China (Sept-09 = base 100) China GDP Eucalyptus Shipments Source: Bloomberg and PPPC.
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