ANNEX N. 2017/18 Budget Risk Matrix. Consequence 6,7, 10,12 3,17 14,16 2,8 11, , Likelihood

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1 1, 5 9 ANNEX N 2017/18 Budget Risk Matrix 5 Likelihood 3 2 2,8 11, 13 15,7, 10,12 3,17 1, Consequence

2 Parking income lower than anticipated A further downturn in levels of parking income being achieved will result in shortfall against the parking income budget. This is 1.0m of income to the Council. No Risk Title/Description Control Income Risks 1 Localisation of Council Tax Benefits modelling of the Council Tax Base, with regular performance A Local Council Tax Scheme has now been in place since April 2013, with collection rates performing well against forecasts. 1 Prudent assumptions have been made in the financial and financial monitoring of the in year impacts. 2 The implementation of Universal Credit and further of universal credit. The service is monitoring the progress of the universal credit roll out in order to anticipate the timing of the next stage in Milton Keynes (This will occur between May 201 and September 2018). The next stage will substantially reduce the number of housing benefit claims made by working The Revs and Bens service is monitoring the impacts on the Welfare Reforms service (which includes the financial impacts) of the introduction age claimants in Milton Keynes. 3 Impact of the business rates retention funding of business rate income, there is a risk of achieving the annual income target. However, the Revenue and Benefits team are pro-actively working with the Valuation Office to support the development of best practise, in addition to implementing a robust strategy to minimise business rate avoidance and to maximise the overall amount of collectable business rates. Financial modelling of projected income levels and regular income monitoring is undertaken to review the performance Due to the delays in the processing of backdated business mechanism rates appeals by the Valuation Office and the general volatility against planned levels. Estimated income from Fees and Charges or new Regular budget monitoring will identify any deviation from the anticipated income levels. Options for corrective management Budgets are set on a prudent basis considering current income 1 Income Generation schemes is not achievable. being achieved or a robust proposal for new income generation. action will be considered. 5 HCA Asset/Tariff could have unforeseen financial assets and Tariff have been undertaken to assess any unknown risks. The risk reserve was reviewed with Department for Communities Agency and the risk sharing agreement currently A Tariff risk reserve has been established to protect the Council 3 liabilities to the level of the risk sharing agreement. Due diligence on the Communities and Local Government and Homes and remains.

3 8 Homelessness Reduction Bill Costs acceptances by its third year. It has announced funding of 8m nationally over the period to cover thins New Burden. There are risks that costs to MKC of the new duties, especially in respect of single homeless people, may exceed MKC s share of the 8m; and that the prevention and reduction do not achieve sufficient savings to offset costs and growth in the The government expects the new duties in the Homelessness Reduction Bill to lead to a 30% decrease in homelessness numbers of homelessness to be addressed. No Risk Title/Description Control 7 Temporary Accommodation Management Fee announced that this would be withdrawn from April 2017, but that councils would receive "more than equivalent funding" directly. Although DWP have confirmed the reduction in HB Subsidy, DCLG have not yet provided details of the alternative funding mechanism. There is, therefore, a risk that the funding mechanism may allocate the replacement funding in a way that Currently, Housing Benefit Subsidy covers a 0 per property per week management cost allowance. The Autumn Statement disadvantages MKC. Expenditure Risks (including Demography & Legislation) 9 Families with no recourse to public funds who acquire National lobbying to highlight the impact of this new financial leave to remain in the UK are no longer entitled to burden on local government; close scrutiny and ongoing benefit payments, extending the period during which monitoring of all applications for support; work with individual the council is legally obliged to provide them with families to e.g. support adults in obtaining employment. financial support Action to address this issue includes: Robust contract management, better route planning and securing lower contract prices within the home to school travel service school transport. Managing demand for support with home to school travel by introducing more regular reapplication points to check continuing eligibility, rolling out a travel training service, reviewing options for discretionary charging and ensuring that travel support is provided in an appropriate but cost effective manner. Investigating the viability of an innovative new scheme where teaching assistants and other trusted and appropriately checked MKC or school employees are paid to provide one to one or two to one home to school transport by private car and/or through contracting directly with schools to provide transport services. There is also a demand led reserve for Children's Services of 0.m to mitigate against this risk. 10 Home to school travel financial pressures

4 12 Unaccompanied Asylum seeking Children increase in arrivals of unaccompanied children, largely driven by the clearance of the Calais migrant camp, the Dubs transferred under Dublin III arrangements. This means that the total number of UASC to date is significantly larger today and is set to grow further in the coming weeks and months. 7% of unaccompanied children and young people arriving in the UK were aged 1-17 and over 90% were male, this picture is likely to change as more and more children are reunited in this country under Dublin III arrangements. This national picture is reflected in the number of children arriving in Milton Keynes, although lobbying of government has resulted in additional support for the authorities (not including MK) that are incurring the most significant impact. As at , MK was supporting 2 UASC. The current expectation is that LAs will accept additional children up to a voluntary cap, which for MK is currently. MK is also supporting a further 2 care leavers who are former UASC and for whom we currently receive no additional government funding. There is also the Children's As at 31 March 201 nationally local authorities were supporting,89 UASC. However, since then there has been a sharp Amendment to the Immigration Act and children being demand led reserve to mitigate this risk. No Risk Title/Description Control 11 Increase in demand for children s social care services The anticipated pressures in Children s Social Care, particularly 9 as a result of demographic and demand pressures the cost of placements for children in care due to any increase in care numbers and/or the complexity of individual needs. The budget reflects estimated growth in placement costs of 0.39m, along with a saving of 0.500m to reflect specific actions to reduce placement costs. In addition, the demand led reserve for Children's services will be 0.700m. The Budget will be closely monitored and managed through the following: Ensuring timely and accurate data collection to inform financial planning assumptions; ensuring that internal and externally commissioned service delivery models are based on robust internal and external information about what works and that they deliver best value; continued investment in preventative services, including investment in interventions to prevent entry to care, particularly of adolescents; ensuring that that the Milton Keynes Care System is dynamic and that children and young people are supported to move on to appropriate alternative care arrangements as soon as it is safe and in their best interests to do so.

5 No Risk Title/Description Control 13 Homelessness continuing growth in demand leads In the past few years, demand for temporary accommodation 9 to disproportionate cost increases for those to whom the council owes a statutory duty has doubled and the supply of permanent council housing halved, giving rise to additional budget pressure of 3.2m. Although the budget provides for both this growth in demand and for sizeable savings from various initiatives, further increases in demand are still a major risk for the Council. Both demand-side (prevention & assisting potentially homeless families to self-serve) and supply-side (securing additional temporary accommodation units and new council housing) solutions are being actively progressed. The Budget also creates a demand led reserve of 1.5m to mitigate the risk of further demand increases. 1 Managing increased demand for Adult Social Care The anticipated pressures in Adult Social Care are quantified 8 services as a result of demographic pressures services. Ensuring timely and accurate data collection to inform financial planning assumptions. Regular review of service delivery models (internal and external) to ensure best value. Commissioning services that are cost effective and achieve best value. Continued investment in preventative services, including re-enablement models, to enable people to remain in their homes for as long as possible. Robust processes for agreeing all care and support. The Budget reflects estimated growth in placement costs of 1.2m, along with a saving of.m to reflect the specific actions to reduce costs. Additional in-year demand for services will be managed within existing resources wherever possible, however, the Adult Social Care demand led risk reserve exists to protect against in year unpredicted demand which cannot be managed in this way. and managed through the following. Investment in reablement The estimated value of this for 2017/18 is 2.8m. 15 Market Sustainability for Adult Social Care Services The increased costs for providers associated with the Living 12 including impact of the Living wage and new pension responsibilities on providers and increased demand Wage and other legislative changes have been included in pressures for 2017/18 where evidence of the pressure on providers costs has been provided. However, these may only partly mitigate the issue and there may be further requests to assist providers with the funding of these pressures. We will continue to negotiate with providers on a case by case basis and where cost pressures are appropriately evidenced, to ensure business continuity. 1 Capacity and capability to implement Budget Savings Controls: Appropriate senior level leadership for proposals; 8 Additional capacity sourced when required; For the medium term, focus on commercial joint vehicle, investment income and shared services to create capacity, pace, opportunity and resilience.

6 No Risk Title/Description Control 17 Delayed Opening of the Residual Waste Treatment The residual waste treatment facility is due to be completed for Facility full service commencement on the end of July Any delay in the commencement of the service will result in additional costs of waste disposal through the continued use of landfill, together with the inability to achieve budgeted income targets.