A Regional Early Warning System Prototype for East Asia
|
|
- Wilfred Scott
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 A Regional Early Warning System Prototype for East Asia Regional Economic Monitoring Unit Asian Development Bank 1
2 A Regional Early Warning System Prototype for East Asia Regional Economic Monitoring Unit Asian Development Bank I. Introduction 1 As part of its contribution to the Kobe Research Project, the Asian Development Bank is implementing a technical assistance for an ASEAN+3 Framework for the Development of Early Warning Systems. The main objective of the technical assistance is to support the ASEAN+3 countries collaborative efforts in regional economic monitoring and surveillance by developing a regional early warning system (EWS) prototype that would help detect emerging macroeconomic, financial, and corporate sector vulnerabilities and prevent financial crises in the future. 1 2 The regional EWS prototype under development comprises four components: (i) a set of macroprudential indicators (MPIs); (ii) a nonparametric EWS model; (iii) a parametric EWS model; and (iv) a set of economic leading indicators of business cycles. ADB has worked closely with other concerned institutions (such as IMF, the Institute of International Economics, and the Korea Center for International Finance) and experts in these fields in developing the four components. 3 The four components of the prototype have different focuses. MPIs are used to assess the health and stability of financial systems in a less formal and more qualitative way, while the other three components make use of statistical techniques and have more specific focuses. The nonparametric and parametric EWS models are designed to assess the probability of a currency crisis within a 24-month time horizon, while leading indicators of business cycles are for predicting turning points of business cycles. The latter three components require high and long time series. Therefore, they can only be applied to countries where such data are available, including Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. The focuses and applicability of the four components of the EWS prototype are summarized in Table 1. 1 The need for establishing early warning systems was also highlighted in the Ministerial Statement of the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers at their meeting in Honolulu in May
3 Table 1 The Regional EWS Prototype and Its Applicability Countries with high Countries without high Macroprudential indicators Macroeconomic indicators Aggregated microprudential indicators Not applicable as these indicators are included in the EWS models Assess the health of banks and nonbank financial institutions Assess the health and stability of financial systems Non-parametric EWS Parametric EWS Leading indicators of business cycles Assess the likelihood of a currency crisis Assess the likelihood of a currency crisis Predict turning points of business cycles Not applicable due to the lack of high Not applicable due to the lack of high Not applicable due to the lack of high II. Components of the Regional EWS Prototype A. Macroprudential Indicators 4 IMF, in collaboration with other international finance institutions, national authorities, and the private sector, initiated work on MPIs a few years ago as part of its efforts to strengthen the surveillance process at IMF. MPIs, broadly defined as indicators of health and stability of financial systems, can be classified into two categories. The first is the aggregated microprudential indicators. These are mostly derived by aggregating indicators of the heath of individual financial institutions, including capital adequacy, asset quality, management soundness, earnings, liquidity and sensitivity to market risk, or the so-called CAMELS. The second category pertains to indicators of macroeconomic developments and external shocks. These cover growth performance, balance of payments positions, monetary and fiscal conditions, interest rates and exchange rates, and asset prices. Worsening of these indicators could affect the stability of financial systems, and lead to currency and banking crises. 5 Key aggregated microprudential indicators we have identified so far include the capital adequacy ratios, nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios, rates of return on equity and assets of the banking sector, growth of real commercial bank deposits, corporate debtequity ratios, corporate profitability, credit ratings, sovereign yield spreads, and price indices of banking equities. 3
4 6 Key macroeconomic indicators we have identified can be classified into six groups by sources of financial vulnerability. These are the current account, capital account, financial sector, fiscal account, real sector, and global economy. The selection of indicators was based on economic rationale as well as recent findings of empirical studies on currency and banking crises involving various countries and regions, including East Asia. Another major consideration was data availability. The proposed indicators for each group are as follows: Current account indicators: real exchange rates, export growth, import growth, ratios of the trade account balance to GDP, and ratios of the current account balance to GDP; Capital account indicators: ratios of short-term debt to foreign reserves, ratios of M2 to foreign reserves, ratios of banks foreign liabilities to foreign assets, ratios of residents deposits in the Bank of International Settlement banks to foreign reserves, and growth of foreign reserves; Financial sector indicators: ratios of domestic credit to GDP, M2 money multipliers, excess real M1 balances, domestic real interest rates, and lendingdeposit rate spreads; Fiscal account indicators: ratios of the fiscal balance to GDP, ratios of government consumption to GDP, and ratios of public debt to GDP; Real sector indicators: growth of industrial production, changes in stock prices; and Global economy indicators: growth of world oil prices, the US real interest rate, US GDP growth, and the US dollar/yen real exchange rate. 7 Further work in this area is to develop more aggregated microprudential indicators reflecting the health of banks and non-bank financial institutions, and to identify a set of core MPIs. B. A Nonparametric EWS Model 8 The second component of the regional EWS prototype is a nonparametric EWS model. EWS models offer a systematic, objective, and consistent method of assessing financial vulnerability that avoids analysts biases. In such models, composite leading indices provide summary measures of financial vulnerability for a particular country at a particular point in time, and individual indicators reveal sources of financial vulnerability. 9 The nonparametric EWS model we have developed follows the signaling approach pioneered by Kaminsky and Reinhart. 2 Technically, the model can generate, for each country and on a monthly basis, estimates of the likelihood of a currency crisis within the next 24 months. The model was initially estimated using monthly data from 1970 to 1995 for Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. After 2 See Goldstein, Kaminsky and Reinhart, 2000, Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets. Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC. 4
5 demonstrating that the model is capable of predicting the 1997 Asian financial crisis outof-sample, it was reestimated and updated to include data up to In the model, a crisis episode is considered to occur in a particular month if the month-over-month percentage change in a bilateral nominal exchange rate (e.g., local currency/the US dollar) exceeds its sample mean by two standard deviations. Thirtyeight economic and financial indicators are used to predict such depreciation episodes. Most of these indicators are among the MPIs of the first component described earlier. Some MPIs, such as nonperforming loan ratios, capital adequacy ratios, ratios of government debt to GDP, although important, are not part of the model, because they are available only for more recent years and do not have a long enough time series. In many cases, the model looks at a particular variable not only in its level form, but also its change (or percentage change) over 12 months or deviations from its trend. 11 In the model, each individual indicator is examined to determine whether it has crossed its threshold value that has historically been associated with heightened probability of currency crises. When an observed outcome of an individual leading indicator crosses its threshold value, it is considered as issuing a warning signal. A warning signal is associated with a certain conditional probability. For example, if a particular leading indicator has a conditional probability of 50 percent, this means that, on average, in the six countries under consideration, 50 percent of the months in which this indicator crossed its threshold during were actually associated with increased financial vulnerability leading to currency crises within 24 months. The conditional probability differs across different leading indicators. The higher the conditional probability, the more reliable a leading indicator would be in detecting vulnerability. 12 The threshold value of a leading indicator is set such that the so-called noise-tosignal ratio that is the ratio of the likelihood of the indicator signaling during times with low financial vulnerability (or tranquil period) to the likelihood of it signaling during times with high vulnerability (or crisis period) is minimized. To take into account countryspecific characteristics that are not necessarily related to financial vulnerability but due to factors such as differences in policies, institutional structures, and variable definitions, thresholds of leading indicators are all country-specific. 13 Estimation results show that eight out of the 38 leading indicators have a conditional probability greater than 50 percent. These are, in order of probability value, the deviation of the real exchange rate against the US dollar from its trend, the deviation of the real effective exchange rate from its trend, the ratio of short-term debt to foreign reserves, the ratio of M2 to foreign reserves, the ratio of banks foreign liabilities to foreign assets, the ratio of residents deposits in Bank for International Settlements (BIS) banks to foreign reserves, the deviation of the real dollar/yen exchange rate from its trend, and the deviation of the foreign liabilities/foreign assets ratio from its trend. The conditional probability for the rest of the individual indicators ranges from 30 to 49 percent. Across the six indicator categories, on average, the current account has the highest conditional probability, which is followed by the capital account, the global economy, the financial sector, the real sector, and the fiscal sector. These suggest that the current account and capital account indicators are on average more reliable than other types of indicators, in particular, the real sector and fiscal sector indicators, in assessing the probability of currency crises. 5
6 14 Signals by individual indicators (taking the value of one when signaling and zero otherwise) were then aggregated into composite leading indices to provide summary measures of economic and financial vulnerability that could lead to currency crises. Composite leading indices contain more information than individual leading indicators, and are considered to be more reliable. In the model, there are six sector-specific composite leading indices and two overall composite leading indices. The six sector composite indices are, respectively, the Current Account Composite Index, Capital Account Composite Index, Financial Sector Composite Index, Fiscal Account Composite Index, Real Sector Composite Index, and Global Economy Composite Index. Each of these is a weighted average of one/zero signals of individual leading indicators of the concerned sector, with weights being their respective noise-to-signal ratios. The first overall composite leading index is a weighted average of the six sector composite indices, with weights being its noise-to-signal ratio. The second overall composite leading index is a simple sum of all the one/zero signals of individual leading indicators. 15 Estimation results show that, during 1970 to 2000, the weighted composite leading index captures 83 percent of the crisis episodes at a conditional probability of 82 percent, and the unweighted composite leading index captures about 70 percent of crisis episodes at a conditional probability of 65 percent. 16 Limitations of the EWS approach are: (i) at a theoretical level, there are many conceptual and methodological issues to be further studied; (ii) availability and accuracy of data are also major constraints to the usefulness of such models; and (iii) EWS models have so far found to perform reasonably well when they are applied to currency crises, while the track record of EWS models for banking crises is not so good. For these reasons, EWS models should be used to complement, rather than substitute for, sound and balanced judgments on financial weaknesses. C. A Parametric EWS Model 17 A third component of the regional EWS prototype is a parametric EWS model based on the probit regression analysis. Compared to the signaling approach, a major advantage of a regression-based EWS model is that it is multivariate and considers all explanatory variables simultaneously. Hence impacts of a particular indicator on crisis probability are conditional on values of other indicators in the model, and could be more accurately measured. A further advantage is that it allows testing of statistical significance of individual indicators. 18 The parametric EWS model was also estimated using monthly data of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand from 1970 to In-sample estimation results indicate that the following variables possess the most significant predictive power in identifying currency crises: deviations of the real exchange rate from its trend; changes in the ratio of M2 to foreign reserves; changes in real stock prices (denominated in US dollars); the US real interest rate; and changes in the M2 money multiplier. Employing a cutoff probability of 20 percent, the in-sample test of the probit EWS model predicts 69 percent of all crisis episodes. The out of sample performance of the model is even better, with 78 percent of all crises predicted accurately. This suggests that with data up to 1995, the model is able to predict the 1997 Asian financial crisis with a considerable amount of confidence. 6
7 19 The regression approach also has its limitations. First, within this approach, it is difficult to assess which of the variables is "out of line." Second, the regression-based EWS models require larger sample size than the signalling-based EWS models for them to work properly. Often these large samples are not available and this becomes a major constraint. Third, the regression-based approach permits only a small number of indicators to be used, in order to maintain a sufficient degree of freedom and to avoid multicolinearity. Because each of the two approaches has its advantages and limitations, they should be considered as complements to, not substitutes for, each other. D. Leading Indicators of Business Cycles 20 The last component of the regional EWS prototype is leading economic indicators of business cycles. Leading indicators are arguably the chief forecasting tool used to predict recessions and recoveries. They can provide advance warning of a sharp economic upturn (overheating) or downturn (recession) and thus enable policymakers to initiate preemptive action. Our work on leading indicators is still ongoing and now covers only Malaysia and the Philippines. The main constraint is data availability. Future work will involve expanding country coverage and working together with government agencies that compile similar indicators. III. Summary and Conclusions 21 ADB s work on the regional EWS prototype is still ongoing. But the progress so far has been very encouraging. Further work include (i) identifying a set of core MPIs; (ii) improving the parametric and nonparametric EWS models; (iii) integrating the parametric EWS model with the nonparametric EWS model; and (iv) extending the analysis of leading indicators of business cycles to more countries where high are available. 22 At the recently concluded ASEAN+3 Deputies meeting in Myanmar in early April, ADB presented the Vulnerability Assessment Report containing the simulation results of the EWS prototype using monthly data from January 2001 to February 2002, and received favorable feedback from the Deputies. ADB will continue to present Vulnerability Assessment Reports to the ASEAN+3 Deputies meetings in the future. 23 We have adopted a participatory approach in developing the EWS prototype. Various workshops have been organized, jointly with the Bank of Thailand, the Ministry of Finance and Economy of Korea, and the ASEAN Secretariat, to discuss the prototype and seek views from representatives of all member countries of the ASEAN+3 group. At the Myanmar ASEAN+3 Deputies meeting, the People s Bank of China announced that it would organize jointly with ADB a workshop later this year to finalize the regional EWS prototype. 24 It is envisaged that after the prototype is finalized, individual countries would use it as a model to set up their own early warning systems, taking into account their own circumstances. ADB is processing another technical assistance for supporting the development and implementation of individual country early warning systems. 7
Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What Can an Early Warning System Model Tell Us?
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 26 ECONOMICS AND RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What Can an Early Warning System Model Tell Us? Juzhong Zhuang J. Malcolm Dowling October 2002
More informationTOWARDS A MACRO-PRUDENTIAL LEADING INDICATORS FRAMEWORK FOR MONITORING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
TOWARDS A MACRO-PRUDENTIAL LEADING INDICATORS FRAMEWORK FOR MONITORING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY BISWA N. BHATTACHARYAY CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 1015 CATEGORY 10: EMPIRICAL AND THEORETICAL METHODS AUGUST
More informationSUMMARY POVERTY IMPACT ASSESSMENT
SUMMARY POVERTY IMPACT ASSESSMENT 1. This Poverty Impact Assessment (PovIA) describes the transmissions in which financial sector development both positively and negatively impact poverty in Thailand.
More informationShort-term economic statistics A global response to the economic and financial crisis
Short-term economic statistics A global response to the economic and financial crisis International Workshop on Short-term Statistics 18-20 May 2015 Beijing, China United Nations Statistics Division Financial
More informationAre Macroprudential Indicators Leading Indicators of Economic and Financial Distress in The Bahamas? Written by Jordan Alwyn & Martiniqua Moxey
Are Macroprudential Indicators Leading Indicators of Economic and Financial Distress in The Bahamas? Written by Jordan Alwyn & Martiniqua Moxey Outline Introduction Literature Review Macroprudential Measures
More informationMonitoring Economic Vulnerability and Performance: Applications to the Philippines
Philippine Institute for Development Studies Monitoring Economic Vulnerability and Performance: Applications to the Philippines Josef T. Yap and Mario B. Lamberte DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES NO. 2001-11 The
More informationStrong Asian Growth. Asian Bond Markets Initiative
Strong Asian Growth and Asian Bond Markets Initiative OECD-ADBI 11 th Roundtable on Capital Market Reform in Asia 22-23 February 2010 Tokyo, Japan Takehiko Nakao Director-General, International Bureau
More informationAsiA ECONOMiC MONitOr December 2009
Asia ECONOMIC Monitor December 2009 ASIA ECONOMIC MONITOR DECEMBER 2009 2009 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published 2009. Printed in the Philippines. Printed on recycled paper. Cataloging-In-Publication
More informationRegional Cooperation for Financial Stability and Resilience
Regional Cooperation for Financial Stability and Resilience AsianBondsOnline Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. Director, Macroeconomics Research Division Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian
More informationASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REPORT 2017
ASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REPORT 2017 THE ERA OF FINANCIAL INTERCONNECTEDNESS: HOW CAN ASIA STRENGTHEN FINANCIAL RESILIENCE? Cyn-Young Park Director of Regional Cooperation and Integration Economic Research
More informationShort term indicators
Short term indicators Seminar on developing the capacity to produce economic statistics, including national accounts in accordance with the 2008 SNA, in the Asian and Pacific region 10-13 October 2011,
More informationLEADING INDICATORS FOR MONITORING THE STABILITY OF ASSET AND FINANCIAL MARKETS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC. Biswanath Bhattacharyay* and G.
LEADING INDICATORS FOR MONITORING THE STABILITY OF ASSET AND FINANCIAL MARKETS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Biswanath Bhattacharyay* and G. Nerb** The Asian economic and financial crisis of 1997 has spawned
More informationAsian Bond Market Initiative to support Infrastructure Development in the Region
Asian Bond Market Initiative to support Infrastructure Development in the Region Irfa Ampri Vice Chairman Fiscal Policy Agency for Climate Change Finance and Multilateral Policy Indonesia s Minister of
More informationTHIS QUARTER IN ASIA ASEAN SHOWING RESILIENCE WHILE CHINA AND INDIA WEAKENING
Apr-9 Oct-9 Apr-1 Oct-1 Apr-9 Oct-9 Apr-1 Oct-1 THIS QUARTER IN ASIA Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs), Vol.8 April June 212 Source: OECD Development Centre ASEAN SHOWING RESILIENCE WHILE CHINA AND
More informationThe Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation: Origin, Development and Outlook
The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation: Origin, Development and Outlook by Chalongphob Sussangkarn Presented at a conference on Regionalism and Reform of the Global Monetary & Financial System:
More informationYen and Yuan. The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Asian Economies. C. H. Kwan RIETI
Yen and Yuan The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Asian Economies C. H. Kwan RIETI November 21 The Yen-dollar Rate as the Major Determinant of Asian Economic Growth -4-3 -2 Stronger Yen Yen
More informationASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REPORT 2017
ASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REPORT 2017 HIGHLIGHTS ASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REPORT 2017 HIGHLIGHTS Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) 2017 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue,
More informationINDICATORS OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN MATURE ECONOMIES
B INDICATORS OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN MATURE ECONOMIES This special feature analyses the indicator properties of macroeconomic variables and aggregated financial statements from the banking sector in providing
More information14. What Use Can Be Made of the Specific FSIs?
14. What Use Can Be Made of the Specific FSIs? Introduction 14.1 The previous chapter explained the need for FSIs and how they fit into the wider concept of macroprudential analysis. This chapter considers
More informationDescribing the Macro- Prudential Surveillance Approach
Describing the Macro- Prudential Surveillance Approach JANUARY 2017 FINANCIAL STABILITY DEPARTMENT 1 Preface This aim of this document is to provide a summary of the Bank s approach to Macro-Prudential
More informationRegional Monetary Cooperation in East Asia against Asymmetric Responses to the US Dollar Depreciation 1)
THE JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN ECONOMY, Vol. 5, No. 2 (Fall 2004), Regional Monetary Cooperation in East Asia against Asymmetric Responses to the US Dollar Depreciation 1) Eiji Ogawa In this paper we consider
More informationHow to Increase Bond Market Liquidity an AsianBondsOnline Survey
2009/FMM/009 Session: Plenary 2 How to Increase Bond Market Liquidity an AsianBondsOnline Survey Purpose: Information Submitted by: Asian Development Bank 16 th Finance Ministers Meeting Singapore 12 November
More informationSUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN ASEAN ECONOMIES: THE ACCESS TO RISK MITIGATION INSTRUMENTS. Knut Gummert, OECD Southeast Asia Division
SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN ASEAN ECONOMIES: THE ACCESS TO RISK MITIGATION INSTRUMENTS Knut Gummert, OECD Southeast Asia Division UNESCAP EGM meeting 25 November 2015 Outline i. OECD projects
More informationJournal of Asian Economics xxx (2005) xxx xxx. Risk properties of AMU denominated Asian bonds. Junko Shimizu, Eiji Ogawa *
1 Journal of Asian Economics xxx (2005) xxx xxx 2 3 4 5 6 7 89 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Risk properties of AMU denominated Asian bonds Abstract Junko Shimizu, Eiji
More informationOverview: Financial Stability and Systemic Risk
Overview: Financial Stability and Systemic Risk Bank Indonesia International Workshop and Seminar Central Bank Policy Mix: Issues, Challenges, and Policies Jakarta, 9-13 April 2018 Rajan Govil The views
More informationRecent Trends in Japan's Balance of Payments
Bank of Japan Review 1-E- Recent Trends in Japan's Balance of Payments --Findings from the New Balance of Payments Statistics-- International Department Noritaka Fukuma, Kentaro Morishita,* Takeshi Nakamura
More informationim onitoring Banking Sector Fragility
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 2085 im onitoring Banking Sector Fragility A Multivariate
More informationFuture of Central Bank Cooperation in Asia, Latin America, and Caribbean States
October 11, 2012 Bank of Japan Future of Central Bank Cooperation in Asia, Latin America, and Caribbean States Remarks at the BOJ-CEMLA Seminar on Regional Financial Cooperation Kiyohiko G. Nishimura Deputy
More informationAchievements of Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI) in the last decade and Future Challenges
Achievements of Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI) in the last decade and Future Challenges for OECD-ADBI 12th Roundtable on Capital Market Reform in Asia February 7, 2012 in Tokyo Takeshi Kurihara,
More information1 DIRECTIVE 2013/36/EU OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 26 June 2013 on access to the
Methodology underlying the determination of the benchmark countercyclical capital buffer rate and supplementary indicators signalling the build-up of cyclical systemic financial risk The application of
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationWill Asian Fiscal Stimulus Packages Stimulate Growth
2009/SOM2/FMP/SFOM6/010 Session: 2 Will Asian Fiscal Stimulus Packages Stimulate Growth Purpose: Information Submitted by: Asian Development Bank 6 th Senior Finance Officials Meeting Singapore 17-18 July
More informationQuantifying Qualitative Data from Expectation Surveys How Well Do Expectation Surveys Forecast Inflation?
Quantifying Qualitative Data from Expectation Surveys How Well Do Expectation Surveys Forecast Inflation? Teresita Bascos-Deveza Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas As early as 2001, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
More informationQuantifying qualitative data from expectation surveys: how well do expectation surveys forecast inflation?
Quantifying qualitative data from expectation surveys: how well do expectation surveys forecast inflation? Teresita Bascos-Deveza 1 As early as 2001, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas adopted new measures
More informationI. MACROECONOMIC AND MONETARY POLICY MANAGEMENT
I. MACROECONOMIC AND MONETARY POLICY MANAGEMENT MP1A. Foundational Course on Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Dates : 17 21 April 2017 Venue : Sasana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur Host : The SEACEN Centre This
More informationADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration. A Macroprudential Framework for Monitoring and Examining Financial Soundness
ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration A Macroprudential Framework for Monitoring and Examining Financial Soundness Lotte Schou-Zibell, Jose Ramon Albert, and Lei Lei Song No. 43 March
More informationThe Joint Statement of the 15 th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting
The Joint Statement of the 15 th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting 3 May 2012, Manila, the Philippines I. Introduction 1. We, the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
More informationThe Relative Significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific
The Relative Significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific 19 June 2014 Consulting Fellow, RIETI Kenichi Kawasaki 29 October 2011 Overview The relative significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific TPP and RCEP are shown
More informationCORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND FINANCE IN EAST ASIA
i CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND FINANCE IN EAST ASIA CORPORATE GOVERNANCE A Study of Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand AND FINANCE IN EAST ASIA VOLUME ONE A Consolidated Report
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Second Meeting October 9, 2015 IMFC Statement by Tharman Shanmugaratnam Deputy Prime Minister & Coordinating Minister for Economic and Social Policies
More informationKey Aspects of Macroprudential Policy
Seminar for Senior Bank Supervisors from Emerging Markets WB/IMF/Federal Reserve October 2016 1 Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy Luis I. Jácome H. Monetary and Capital Markets Department International
More informationRecent Development in ABF Projects
Recent Development in ABF Projects February 23, 2010 Center for Monetary Cooperation in Asia (CeMCoA) International Department, Bank of Japan EMEAP The Executives Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Banks
More informationAdvancing Good Corporate Governance by Promoting Utilization of the OECD Principles of Corporate Governance
011/SOM1/EC/WKSP1/00 Advancing Good Corporate Governance by Promoting Utilization of the OECD Principles of Corporate Governance Submitted by: PECC Workshop on Advancing Good Corporate Governance by Promoting
More informationEffectiveness of macroprudential and capital flow measures in Asia and the Pacific 1
Effectiveness of macroprudential and capital flow measures in Asia and the Pacific 1 Valentina Bruno, Ilhyock Shim and Hyun Song Shin 2 Abstract We assess the effectiveness of macroprudential policies
More informationAsia s Debt Risks The risk of financial crises is limited, but attention should be paid to slowing domestic demand.
Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis November 15, 218 Asia s Debt Risks The risk of financial crises is limited, but attention should be paid to slowing domestic demand. < Summary > Expanding private debt
More informationGROWTH IN ASEAN SHOWS RESILIENCE UNDER GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INFUSION
May-1 Nov-1 May-1 Nov-1 THIS QUARTER IN ASIA Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs), Vol.11 April July 213 Source: OECD Development Centre GROWTH IN ASEAN SHOWS RESILIENCE UNDER GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INFUSION
More informationPOST-CRISIS GLOBAL REBALANCING CONFERENCE ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE LAW OF THE SEA WASHINGTON DC, DEC 1-3, Barry Bosworth
POST-CRISIS GLOBAL REBALANCING CONFERENCE ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE LAW OF THE SEA WASHINGTON DC, DEC 1-3, 2010 Barry Bosworth I. Economic Rise of Asia Emerging economies of Asia have performed extremely
More informationCase Study (Finance and Development in Emerging Asia I) Reading 02
Graduate School of Public Policy The University of Tokyo Case Study (Finance and Development in Emerging Asia I) Course No. 5140723 A1/A2 2017 By Toshiro Nishizawa Reading 02 Asian Development Bank. 2017.
More informationAsia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers
2018/FDM1/004 Session 2.1 Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers Purpose: Information Submitted by: International Monetary Fund Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting Port Moresby, Papua
More informationBond Market Development in Emerging East Asia
Bond Market Development in Emerging East Asia Thematic Issues in Emerging East Asia Shu Tian and Cynthia Petalcorin Asian Development Bank Thematic Topics I. Do Local Currency Bond Markets Enhance Financial
More information26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Liang Shibin
Analyst Liang Shibin +6565311516 liangsb@phillip.com.sg Executive Summary Outperformance during Recovery Phase Small caps tend to outperform during economic recovery, attributed to the factor of nimbleness
More informationASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2017: Risks and Opportunities 24 May 2017, Renmin University, China
22 May 2017 ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2017: Risks and Opportunities 24 May 2017, Renmin University, China Introduction: About AMRO Mandate Conduct macroeconomic and financial surveillance
More informationThe Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI) Ministry of Finance, Japan
The Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI) Ministry of Finance, Japan OECD-ADBI 9 th Tokyo Round Table on Capital Market Reform 26-27 February 2008, Tokyo, Japan Background and Purpose of the ABMI Background
More informationSession ASEAN Prospects for Capital Market Integration. by Tan Wai Kuen
Session 3.1.3 ASEAN Prospects for Capital Market Integration by Tan Wai Kuen 1 ASEAN Economic Community Vision 2015 AEC Blueprint 2015 envisages a regionally integrated capital market where: Capital can
More informationWORKING PAPER SERIES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION NO. 16. Emerging East Asian Banking Systems Ten Years after the 1997/98 Crisis.
WORKING PAPER SERIES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION NO. 16 Emerging East Asian Banking Systems Ten Years after the 1997/98 Crisis May 2008 Charles Adams Emerging East Asian Banking Systems Ten Years
More informationOperationalizing the Selection and Application of Macroprudential Instruments
Operationalizing the Selection and Application of Macroprudential Instruments Presented by Tobias Adrian, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Based on Committee for Global Financial Stability Report 48 The
More informationObjectives of the lecture
Assessing the External Position Bank Indonesia International Workshop and Seminar Central Bank Policy Mix: Issues, Challenges, and Policies Jakarta, 9-13 April 2018 Rajan Govil The views expressed herein
More informationCorporate and financial sector dynamics
Financial Sector Indicators Note: 2 Part of a series illustrating how the (FSDI) project enhances the assessment of financial sectors by expanding the measurement dimensions beyond size to cover access,
More informationASIA ECONOMIC MONITOR DECEMBER 2010
Asia ECONOMIC Monitor December 2010 ASIA ECONOMIC MONITOR DECEMBER 2010 2010 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published 2010. Printed in the Philippines. Printed on recycled paper. Cataloging-In-Publication
More informationToward A More Resilient Global Financial Architecture
Toward A More Resilient Global Financial Architecture November 2016 The global economy is undergoing major structural shifts increased multipolarity, greater financial interconnections, and ongoing transitions
More informationGoal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development
112 Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development Snapshots In 21, the net flow of official development assistance (ODA) to developing economies amounted to $128.5 billion which is equivalent to.32%
More informationBilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates. Singapore Thailand. Equity Prices
Figure 1 Selected Asian Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates and Equity Prices (U.S. dollars per currency unit; logarithmic scale; January 5, 1996 = 1) 11 1 9 8 7 6 Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange
More informationRethinking Macroeconomic Policies for Inclusive and Sustainable Development
ESCAP High-level Policy Dialogue Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia International Economic Summit 2013 Eleventh Bank Indonesia Annual International Seminar Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable
More informationINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND NEPAL. Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND NEPAL Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis
More informationNote No. 172 January Corporate Distress in East Asia. The effect of currency and interest rate shocks
Privatesector P U B L I C P O L I C Y F O R T H E Note No. 172 January 1999 Corporate Distress in East Asia The effect of currency and interest rate shocks Stijn Claessens, Simeon Djankov, and Giovanni
More informationExchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policy: Options for China and East Asia
Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policy: Options for China and East Asia Takatoshi Ito, University of Tokyo and RIETI, and Eiji Ogawa, Hitotsubashi University, and RIETI 3/19/2005 RIETI-BIS Conference
More informationSystemic Surveillance and Macro Prudential Indicators
World Bank/IMF/Federal Reserve System Joint Seminar for Senior Bank Supervisors from Emerging Economies Systemic Surveillance and Macro Prudential Indicators Olivier Frécaut IMF - Monetary and Capital
More information6-8 September 2011, Manila, Philippines. Jointly organized by UNESCAP and BANGKO SENTRAL NG PILIPINAS. Country Experiences 3: Net Energy Exporters
High-level Regional Policy Dialogue on "Asia-Pacific economies after the global financial crisis: Lessons learnt, challenges for building resilience, and issues for global reform" 6-8 September 2011, Manila,
More informationAppendix A Specification of the Global Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model
Appendix A Specification of the Global Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model The model is an extension of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models used in China WTO accession studies
More informationWidening Deviation among East Asian Currencies
RIETI Discussion Paper Series 08-E-010 Widening Deviation among East Asian Currencies OGAWA Eiji RIETI YOSHIMI Taiyo Hitotsubashi University The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/
More informationComparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics 2(6)2016 5 Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Fabio Comelli 1 International
More informationFINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM
FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM BANGKOK, THAILAND NOVEMBER 24 DECEMBER 3, 2014 Bangkok December 01, 2014 Rajan Govil, Consultant This activity is supported by a grant from Japan. Outline Financial repression Financial
More informationSustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth
1 Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Source: Google images 2 PH emerges as growth leader in the ASEAN pack
More informationGlobal Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute
Global Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute PECC 18 th General Meeting Economic Crisis and Recovery: Roles for the Asia-Pacific Economies Washington,
More informationOn Determinants of the Depth of Currency Crisis: Fundamentals, Contagion, and Financial Liberalization
International Department Working Paper Series 02-E-2 On Determinants of the Depth of Currency Crisis: Fundamentals, Contagion, and Financial Liberalization Masazumi HATTORI masazumi.hattori@boj.or.jp International
More informationI. BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT
Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries (LIC DSF) Discussion Note August 1, 2016 I. BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 1. The LIC DSF, introduced in 2005, remains the cornerstone of assessing
More informationSTRESS TESTING GUIDELINE
c DRAFT STRESS TESTING GUIDELINE November 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preamble... 2 Introduction... 3 Coming into effect and updating... 6 1. Stress testing... 7 A. Concept... 7 B. Approaches underlying stress
More information2017 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook:
217 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Preparing for Choppy Seas Ranil Salgado International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Department May 12, 217 OAP Seminar Key messages and roadmap The near-term
More informationExecutive Summary of Research Papers and Suggestions KOBE RESEARCH PROJECT. Institute for International Monetary Affairs
Executive Summary of Research Papers and Suggestions of KOBE RESEARCH PROJECT June 2002 Institute for International Monetary Affairs Foreword The Kobe Research Project was endorsed by the ASEM Finance
More informationThree Sisters: The Interlinkage Between Sovereign Debt, Currency and Banking Crises
Three Sisters: The Interlinkage Between Sovereign Debt, Currency and Banking Crises Bilge Karatas Tilburg University and Avans University of Applied Sciences NIFPF-DEA Research Meeting December 11, 2015
More informationOrsolya Csortos and Zoltán Szalai: Assessment of macroeconomic imbalance indicators*
Orsolya Csortos and Zoltán Szalai: Assessment of macroeconomic imbalance indicators* This study examines the set of indicators of the early warning system used within the framework of the new Macroeconomic
More informationIntroduction to VIETNAM
Introduction to VIETNAM Vietnam is a densely populated, emerging economy that has implemented market-oriented reforms since 1986 and benefited from large foreign direct investment inflows since its accession
More informationAsia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook. PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji
Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji 1 Growth in the region remains strong... Growth Projections: World and Selected Asia (Percent change from
More informationKeeping the Door Open Amidst the Global Financial Crisis
Keeping the Door Open Amidst the Global Financial Crisis Lawrence J. Lau, Ph. D. President and Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Kwoh-Ting Li Professor
More informationSustained Growth of Middle-Income Countries
Sustained Growth of Middle-Income Countries Thammasat University Bangkok, Thailand 18 January 2018 Jong-Wha Lee Korea University Background Many middle-income economies have shown diverse growth performance
More informationChanging Trends and Investor Bases of Asian Bond Markets Sabyasachi Mitra, Asian Development Bank S. Ghon Rhee, University of Hawaii
Changing Trends and Investor Bases of Asian Bond Markets Sabyasachi Mitra, Asian Development Bank S. Ghon Rhee, University of Hawaii A Presentation at the 21 st OECD Global Forum on Public Debt Management
More informationStress Testing: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Experience
Stress Testing: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Experience Tomás Baliño Deputy Director Monetary and Financial Systems Department Paper presented at the Expert Forum on Advanced Techniques on
More informationRegional Financial Cooperation in Asia and its impact to the Global Monetary System
Regional Financial Cooperation in Asia and its impact to the Global Monetary System Jan 22, 2013 Ji-Young Choi Ministry of Strategy and Finance Republic of Korea Contents Ⅰ. Background of Asian Regional
More informationEXECUTIVE SUMMARY. IPB dan UI TEAM
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IPB dan UI TEAM The discussion on commodity price volatility became crucial when the world was facing the multiple crisis - 3Fs phase (fuel, food, and financial) during the period of
More informationFiscal policy for inclusive growth in Asia
Fiscal policy for inclusive growth in Asia Dr. Donghyun Park, Principal Economist Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank PRI-IMF-ADBI Tokyo Fiscal Forum on Fiscal Policy toward Long-Term
More informationAsian Regional Policy Coordination
293 Commentary Asian Regional Policy Coordination Dong He Introduction Let me first thank the organizers for inviting me to be part of this very important and interesting conference, and for giving me
More informationStock Prices, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Interest Rates in Emerging and Developing Economies in Asia
International Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 7, No. 9; September 2016 Stock Prices, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Interest Rates in Emerging and Developing Economies in Asia Yutaka Kurihara
More informationDEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF TIMOR-LESTE
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF TIMOR-LESTE January 13, 212 STAFF REPORT FOR THE 211 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Approved By Ray Brooks and Dhaneshwar Ghura (IMF) Prepared By 1 International
More informationMacroeconomics of Finance
Macroeconomics of Finance Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak Lecture 12 Literature Borio C., 2012, The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?, BIS Working Papers No. 395. Business cycles Business
More informationGrowing Asia: Its Promising Markets
Prepared for ASF Annual General Meeting 2011 Growing Asia: Its Promising Markets Sung-Uk Yang Sep 29, 2011 Korea Financial Investment Association Table of Contents I. Intro: Recent Issues II. III. IV.
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Fourth Meeting October 8, 2016 IMFC Statement by Zhou Xiaochuan Governor, People's Bank of China People s Republic of China On behalf of the People's
More informationVietnam: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 1
1 November 2006 Vietnam: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 1 Public sector debt sustainability Since the time of the last joint DSA, the most important new signal on the likely direction of
More informationJapan's Economy and Monetary Policy
Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Miyagi February 4, 2015 Kikuo Iwata Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan Chart 1 World Economy and Exports Projections for
More informationStock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian financial crisis
Journal of Asian Economics 15 (2004) 189 197 Short communication Stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian financial crisis Simon Broome a, Bruce Morley b,* a Department of Economics, National
More informationBenefits of capital inflows - Greater economic opportunities and cushion
OECD-ADBI 12th Roundtable on Capital Market Reform in Asia 7-8 February 2012, Tokyo, Japan Mario B. Lamberte Director of Research Asian Development Bank Institute Note: The book can be downloaded at: http://www.adbi.org/files/2010.12.22.book.managing.capital.flows.pdf
More information