JOBS, GROWTH, EQUALITY: (SURPRISE! THE IMF IS IN FAVOR OF ALL THREE)
|
|
- Lucinda Washington
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 JOBS, GROWTH, EQUALITY: (SURPRISE! THE IMF IS IN FAVOR OF ALL THREE) Prakash Loungani Advisor, Research Department, IMF Co-Chair, IMF Jobs & Growth Working Group PRESENTATION AT GLOBAL PARLIAMENTARY CONFERENCE, APRIL 13, VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE PRESENTER AND SHOULD NOT BE ASCRIBED TO THE IMF.
2
3
4
5 The Two-Handed Approach An old view: getting macro policies right will help labor markets There is sometimes the naïve belief that unemployment must be due to a defect in the labor market, as if the hole in a flat tire must always be at the bottom, because that is where the tire is flat (Solow, 2000). "It takes a heap of Harberger triangles to fill an Okun's gap. (Tobin, 1977)
6 The Two-Handed Approach
7 The Two-Handed Approach Facts and Diagnosis, 1985 [In Europe ] 11.2% of the labor force is unemployed today compared to only 2% in Long-term unemployment is a large and increasing portion [There has been] an increase in both the level of youth unemployment and its share of total unemployment since 1979 a sharp decrease in aggregate demand is indeed the proximate cause of the rise in unemployment in the EC since The use of monetary policy to fight inflation and the major shift in fiscal policy towards "budgetary consolidation", however justified, seem to explain much of the poor growth performance of the 1980s
8 The Two-Handed Approach Fast forward to 2010: déjà vu all over again?
9 Unemployment and Output Output and Employment Since the Great Recession AUS Employment growth 0 5 FIN NOR BELDEU SWE NZL FRA NLD GBR ITA JPN DNK USA PRT CAN AUT CHE ESP IRL Part explained by GDP growth y = 1.03 x (Adj. R 2 = 0.8) Employment growth since the Great Recession can be explained well by changes in output
10 Slow Recovery in Output Why is the output recovery slow? Many theories Deleveraging Policy constraints Limited exchange rate adjustment Fiscal consolidation
11 Slow Recovery in Output: Fiscal Constraints The Divergence in Recovery between Advanced Countries and Emerging Markets Figure 2. Real GDP per Capita: Advanced Countries and Emerging Markets (index, PPP weighted) Advanced Countries Emerging Markets Global Recession Year Average of previous recoveries Recovery from the Great Recession Notes: Dashed lines denote WEO forecasts. Indexed to 100 in the year before global recession. Zero is the time of the global recession year. Each line show the PPP-weighted average of the countries in the respective group.
12 Slow Recovery in Output: Fiscal Constraints Divergence in Government Spending between this Global Recovery and Past Global Recoveries: US and Euro Area
13 Slow Recovery in Output: Policy Implications Implications for Fiscal Policy: Case-by-Case Assessment of Pace Since many governments entered the crisis with high debt-to- GDP ratios, attention turned to consolidation once financial conditions started to stabilize. Cognizant of the adverse impact of fiscal consolidation on growth, the IMF s policy stance has been to support a case-by-case assessment of what is an appropriate pace of consolidation and to emphasize the need to make fiscal policy more growth-friendly (Lipton 2013).
14 Slow Recovery in Output: Policy Implications How IMF advice on fiscal issues was viewed during our 2013 Spring Meetings How the IMF became the friend who wants us to work less and drink more -- Washington Post April 16, 2013 It is to the credit of the economists at the Fund that their recommendations to policymakers have adapted to this strange world we re living in rather than sticking with their more normal, doctrinaire advocacy of monetary and fiscal restraint. IMF Renews Push Against Austerity -- Wall Street Journal April 17, 2013 the International Monetary Fund called on countries that can afford it to slow the pace of their austerity measures.
15 The Two-Handed Approach Recommendations, 1985 Neither supply nor demand measures will by themselves create and sustain employment growth. This simple point forms the basis of our approach Supply measures, without accommodating demand policies, will have little impact on employment and output, at least in the short run if firms do not see improved sales prospects, they will not increase capacity in response only to an improvement in factor prices it is essential to make sure that demand is there to sustain supply [But without supply measures] gains will be temporary at best and may in fact worsen structural problems. Thus, our call for a two-handed approach.
16 Conclusions Two-Handed Approach Unemployment should be the focus: OECD unemployment is high and expected to remain so; this has grave human costs. Jobs and growth are linked: Contrary to some assertions, jobs and growth remain linked. This raises the hope that the jobs will return when growth does. Unemployment still has a large cyclical component: Beveridge curve movements not extreme relative to past swings; mismatch indices back to normal Two-handed approach: Boosting growth requires acting on both demand and supply fronts.
17 Conclusions Getting Macro Policies Right Slow Recovery in Output: Many reasons for it, but inability of fiscal policy to provide support in this global recovery, unlike in past global recoveries, should be kept in mind. Implications for macro policies: Careful calibration of fiscal policy Case-by-case assessment of pace of adjustment Measures to support the unemployed Better targeting of revenue and spending measures to redress distributional effects Infrastructure spending Continued support from monetary policy.
18 Conclusions Strengthening Supply Labor market policies: Well-functioning labor markets require micro and macro flexibility while protecting welfare of workers. To ensure micro flexibility while protecting workers, IMF advice during the crisis has generally been to support unemployment insurance benefits and to advocate a move away from duality and excessive protection. Macro flexibility has proved more difficult. In countries where there is a need to boost competitiveness, the inability to reach national tripartite agreements has left no easy choices. Migration response: an important adjustment mechanism Other structural reforms Product market reforms
19 Conclusions We welcome the measures announced today that will strongly reinforce the ECB s accommodative stance. The planned expansion of the ECB s balance sheet will help lower borrowing cost across the euro area, raise inflation expectations and reduce the risk of a protracted period of low inflation. These measures will also strongly increase the prospects of the ECB achieving its price stability mandate. It remains essential that the accommodative monetary stance is supported by comprehensive and timely policy actions in other areas, not least structural reforms to boost potential growth and ensure broad political support for demand management policies. -- Christine Lagarde, January 22, 2015
20 THANKS! And sorry for going over my allotted time
G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting February February, Structural Reform in a Crisis Environment.
G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting February 24-25 February, 2012 Structural Reform in a Crisis Environment Note by the OECD Structural reform is an essential ingredient to achieve sustainable
More informationWhat is the economic outlook for OECD countries?
The outlook What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent.....9. -..9 Japan. -... Total OECD.... Brazil....
More informationHigh Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy?
High Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy? Paul van den Noord Counsellor to the Chief Economist, OECD 1 Central projection growth, annualised, in
More informationFrom Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies. Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department
From Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department Peterson Institute May 2, 213 1 Main Questions How bad is the fiscal
More informationNero Meeting: Alain de Serres OECD Economics Department. 21 June 2013
Nero Meeting: The structural reform agenda to boost longterm growth and its side-effects on nearterm activity and other objectives Alain de Serres OECD Economics Department 21 June 2013 Benchmarking exercise
More informationRoads to recovery. George Gelauff, Debby Lanser, Albert van der Horst, Adam Elbourne. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Roads to recovery George Gelauff, Debby Lanser, Albert van der Horst, Adam Elbourne The Great Recession 2008-2013 Financial crisis: Global imbalances Risk perception Complex and risky financial innovations
More informationInequality and Fiscal Policy
Inequality and Fiscal Policy Sanjeev Gupta International Monetary Fund G24 meeting - March 3, 2016 Outline of the presentation q Trends in Inequality and the Redistributive Role of Fiscal Policy q Lessons
More informationCredit Supply, Household Debt, and Business Cycles
Credit Supply, Household Debt, and Business Cycles Amir Sufi University of Chicago Booth School of Business; NBER; co-director of IGM February 2017 Big Picture Questions What is the source of macroeconomic
More informationEurope in the World Economy: Economic Recovery and Europe 2020
Europe in the World Economy: Economic Recovery and Europe 2020 Rafael Doménech Economic recovery and Europe 2020: Towards smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Wilton Park, October 24, 2012 Main messages
More informationHow to Get Back on the Fast Track?
REGIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES REPORT ON CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE How to Get Back on the Fast Track? MAY, 216 EUROPEAN DEPARTMENT Map of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe Baltics CEE
More informationOECD long-term projections for the global economy. David Turner, OECD
OECD long-term projections for the global economy David Turner, OECD CMTEA Workshop, 1 st Feb 2013 Overview of long-term model Coverage: OECD & non-oecd G20 countries to 2060 Potential output projections
More informationOverview of the political economic and financial situation in Italy
FEBAF Paris Europlace Italian French dialogue on financial services Paris, 3 september 215 Overview of the political economic and financial situation in Italy Franco Bassanini 1 - 3 Italy finally out of
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL
GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL Aaron Institute for Economic Policy Annual Conference May 4, 217 Craig Beaumont, European Department, IMF Outline World economic outlook (WEO) Broader trends
More informationSTRUCTURAL POLICIES AND THE DISTRIBUTION
STRUCTURAL POLICIES AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE GROWTH DIVIDENDS June 22 nd 2015 Naomitsu YASHIRO and Orsetta CAUSA OECD Economics Department Structural Surveillance Division Overview The dividends of
More informationFiscal consolidation, exit strategies and budgetary institutions
Fiscal consolidation, exit strategies and budgetary institutions David Dreyer Lassen University of Copenhagen Finanspolitiska Rådet, Stockholm, 3 juni Outline Background: Do politics and institutions affect
More informationTHE BENEFITS OF EXPANDING THE ROLE OF WOMEN AND YOUTH IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
G7 International Forum for Empowering Women and Youth in the Agriculture and Food Systems THE BENEFITS OF EXPANDING THE ROLE OF WOMEN AND YOUTH IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea
More informationWirtschaftspolitik für höheres Wachstum und weniger Ungleichheit
Wirtschaftspolitik für höheres Wachstum und weniger Ungleichheit BMWi, Berlin, 16 th March 2017 Christian Kastrop Director, Economics Department Key messages Most people in many OECD countries have seen
More informationOutlook Overview: OECD Countries UN LINK Conference, Bangkok October, 2009
Outlook Overview: OECD Countries UN LINK Conference, Bangkok 26 28 October, 2009 Dave Turner OECD, Economics Department OECD Outlook: Outline 1. Recovery underway but will probably be slow 2. Risks and
More informationStructural perspectives on European employment, productivity and growth in a global context Sintra, Portugal, 23 May 2015
Structural perspectives on European employment, productivity and growth in a global context Sintra, Portugal, 23 May 2015 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Key messages Prolonged weak demand has left
More informationPOLICY STRATEGIES FOR GROWTH- AND EQUITY- FRIENDLY FISCAL CONSOLIDATION
POLICY STRATEGIES FOR GROWTH- AND EQUITY- FRIENDLY FISCAL CONSOLIDATION Jan Stráský With input from Boris Cournède, André Goujard and Álvaro Pina Prague, 19 October 2015 Remarks The opinions expressed
More informationInternational Monetary Economics
International Monetary Economics Lecture 2: Global Imbalances Master d Affaires Publiques SciencesPo Spring 2013 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Roadmap The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account The
More informationFiscal Policy and Inequality: What Do We Know? Benedict Clements International Monetary Fund
Fiscal Policy and Inequality: What Do We Know? Benedict Clements International Monetary Fund Outline of the presentation q Trends in Inequality and the Redistributive Role of Fiscal Policy q Lessons from
More informationOECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Presentation to LUISS 10 April 2017 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Key messages Global
More informationThe Danish flexicurity model and the crisis. Torben M. Andersen University of Aarhus CEPR, CESifo and IZA
The Danish flexicurity model and the crisis Torben M. Andersen University of Aarhus CEPR, CESifo and IZA The Danish Flexicurity Model Particular triple: Lax EPL Flexible hiring/firing rules Generous UIB
More informationInequality and Fiscal Policy
Inequality and Fiscal Policy Sanjeev Gupta International Monetary Fund CEPAL XXVIII Seminario Regional de Política Fiscal March 16-17, 2016 Santiago, Chile Outline of the presentation Trends in Inequality
More informationOECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013
OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 213 CANADA HIGHLIGHTS Canada experienced a decline in business spending on R&D between 21 and 211, despite generous public support, mainly through tax incentives
More informationTHE IMMEDIATE EFFECTS
THE IMMEDIATE EFFECTS OF THE AUSTERITY PROGRAM IN GREECE ZAFIRIS TZANNATOS & YANNISMONOGIOS PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN EUROPE: SCOPE, EFFECTS AND POLICY ISSUES INTERNATIONAL
More informationMINIMUM WAGES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES: BACK TO THE FUTURE?
Paris, 20 October 2017 MINIMUM WAGES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES: BACK TO THE FUTURE? Andrea Garnero Economist Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD A widespread (but heterogenous) wage setting institution
More informationHow to deal with potential secular stagnation
How to deal with potential secular stagnation Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Banque de France Paris 16 January 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/
More informationThe Global Economic Outlook: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Paris, 19th November h00 Paris time
The Global Economic Outlook: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Paris, 19th November 2013 11h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist OECD Economic Outlook: key messages
More informationIceland: From Stabilization to Growth
Íslensk Verðbréf conference on Rebuilding Iceland Iceland: From Stabilization to Growth Hilton Reykjavík Nordica 25. nóvember 2010 Franek Rozwadowski IMF Resident Representative in Reykjavik Overview 1.
More informationHOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES
HOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES Austrian National Bank Workshop - Housing Market Challenges in Europe and the US - any solutions available? September 29, 2008 - Vienna Christophe
More information2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE Boosting productivity and quality jobs Santiago, 26 February 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-chile.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Convergence has been impressive
More informationWHAT DO HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS SUGGEST ABOUT THE TOP 1% INCOMES AND INEQUALITY IN OECD COUNTRIES? Nicolas Ruiz (OECD)
WHAT DO HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS SUGGEST ABOUT THE TOP 1% INCOMES AND INEQUALITY IN OECD COUNTRIES? Nicolas Ruiz (OECD) Motivation: the Inclusive growth puzzle the top percentile managed to capture a very large
More informationIs Full Employment Sustainable?
Is Full Employment Sustainable? Antonio Fatas INSEAD Very preliminary. This version: March 11, 2019 Introduction The US economy started its current expansion phase in June 2009. This means that, as of
More informationFiscal Policy and Economic Growth
Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth Vitor Gaspar Director, Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund Peterson Institute for International Economics June 3, 15 Background The study draws on an
More informationWhy is Japan s inward FDI so low?
Why is Japan s inward FDI so low? Jun Saito, Senior Research Fellow Japan Center for Economic Research August 8, 2017 Japan s low level of inward foreign direct investment stock In May, it was reported
More informationLABOUR MARKET REFORMS IN PORTUGAL
Lisbon, 19 January 217 LABOUR MARKET REFORMS IN PORTUGAL 211-215 A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OVERVIEW Background In October 215 the XIX Government of Portugal asked the OECD to evaluate the labour market
More informationThe surprising resilience of cash
The surprising resilience of cash Helmut Stix Oesterreichische Nationalbank 44th OeNB Economics Conference The Financial System of the Future May 29 and 30, 2017 Based on joint work with Clemens Jobst.
More informationThe Economic Contribution of Older Workers
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development The Economic Contribution of Older Workers Mark Keese Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD CARDI seminar on Living Longer Working Longer in
More informationWhat is the global economic outlook?
The outlook What is the global economic outlook? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent United States.... Euro area. -. -.. Japan -.... Total OECD....
More informationRegional Economic Issues in CESEE
Regional Economic Issues in CESEE JVI Lecture, Vienna, February 8, 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Outlook for CESEE 2 Within CESEE dichotomy:
More informationTHE EURO AREA AT A CROSSROADS
I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D THE EURO AREA AT A CROSSROADS Jeffrey Franks Director, IMF Europe Office International Monetary Fund February 2, 2017 1 MONETARY UNION HAS IMPORTANT ACHIEVEMENTS
More informationOECD Workshop on effective corporate taxation. Corporate taxation on FDI; Kwang-Yeol. YOO, Korean Ministry of Finance. July.
OECD Workshop on effective corporate taxation Corporate taxation on FDI; 1991-001 Kwang-Yeol YOO, Korean Ministry of Finance July.4th, 006 Table of contents I. How to measure tax burden on FDI II. Tax
More information2017 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND
217 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND Boosting productivity and meeting skills needs Bern, 14 November 217 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Living standards
More informationHow demanding are eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits? Quantitative indicators for OECD and EU countries
Seminar on Coverage of unemployment benefits Brussels, 9 December 2015 How demanding are eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits? Quantitative indicators for OECD and EU countries Kristine Langenbucher
More informationWhy Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition?
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition? IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar Vienna, June 13, 2018 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central, Eastern
More informationAbenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth. Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund
Abenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund Abenomics: from where to where? What is the right benchmark? Recovery,
More informationFiscal Implications of Population Ageing Asian Countries
Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this material represent the views of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)
More informationUniversity of Pennsylvania & NBER. This paper reflects only the authors views, and not those of the IMF
An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise Enrique G. Mendoza University of Pennsylvania & NBER Marco E. Terrones IMF This paper reflects only the authors views, and not those of the IMF Motivation and
More informationFA M I LY A L L O WA N C E A N D F E M A L E L A B O U R M A R K E T S U P P LY I G A M A G D A
FA M I LY 5 0 0 + A L L O WA N C E A N D F E M A L E L A B O U R M A R K E T S U P P LY I G A M A G D A Background & research question Introduction of a large Family 500+ Programme in 2016 in Poland aim-
More informationOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Moving forward in difficult times. 3 rd December Mauro Pisu OECD Senior Economist
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Moving forward in difficult times 3 rd December 2015 Mauro Pisu OECD Senior Economist Key issues Global trade weakness Harbinger of further slowing of global GDP growth? China s role
More informationManaging Public Wealth
Managing Public Wealth Jason Harris IMF Fiscal Monitor October 218 November 218 Managing Public Wealth Overview I. The Public Sector Balance Sheet II. Why Does it Matter? III. Policy Implications Risk
More informationProductivity and income differences in the 20 th century
Productivity and income differences in the 20 th century Robert Inklaar and Daniel Gallardo Albarrán (University of Groningen) World KLEMS Conference, June 4 5 2018 Development accounting What can account
More informationHousehold Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide
Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, and Emil Verner Princeton University, University of Chicago, and Princeton University IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference November
More informationOECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF NORWAY
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF NORWAY Maintaining a successful economy in a changing world Centre for Monetary Economics, Oslo, Tuesday 19 December 2017 www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-norway.htm OECD
More informationCosts of Business Cycles Empirical Evidence
Costs of Business Cycles Empirical Evidence Petr Sedláček Bonn University Summer Term 2014 1 / 48 Background and some empirical evidence Seminal contribution by, Lucas (2003) Empirical evidence on the
More informationSERVICES TRADE, REGULATION AND GVCS
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON TRADE, SERVICES AND DEVELOPMENT Geneva, 11 13 May 2015 SERVICES TRADE, REGULATION AND GVCS SESSION 2 Ms. Dorothée Rouzet
More informationEconomic Growth: Lecture 1 (first half), Stylized Facts of Economic Growth and Development
14.452 Economic Growth: Lecture 1 (first half), Stylized Facts of Economic Growth and Development Daron Acemoglu MIT October 24, 2012. Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 1 October 24, 2012. 1
More informationPolicy Forum: How to address Inequality and Poverty in South Africa 7 June 2011, Reserve Bank, Pretoria
Policy Forum: How to address Inequality and Poverty in South Africa 7 June 2011, Reserve Bank, Pretoria Growing Unequal? International trends in inequality and poverty Michael Förster OECD, Social Policy
More informationCapital Access Index 2006 Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital
Capital Access Index 2006 Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital Max = 10 9.0 Hong Kong 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 40 Source: Milken Institute United Kingdom U.S. India China Brazil Russia
More informationPUBLIC SERVICE EMPLOYMENT
PUBLIC SERVICE EMPLOYMENT Projections of Numbers and Demographics of Participants and Economic Effects of the Program L. Randall Wray, Levy Economics Institute and Bard College Report co-authored with
More informationInclusive Growth. Miguel Niño-Zarazúa UNU-WIDER
Inclusive Growth Miguel Niño-Zarazúa UNU-WIDER Significant poverty reduction since 1990s Latin America Percentage of people living on less than $1.25 USD fell from 47% (2bp) in 1990 to 24% (1.4bp) in 2008
More informationTHE ECONOMY AND CAPITAL MARKETS
THE ECONOMY AND CAPITAL MARKETS Clément Gignac Sr VP & Chief economist ia Financial Group September 2017 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this presentation are based on actual market conditions and may
More informationInternational Monetary Economics
International Monetary Economics Lecture 4: Money, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Master d Affaires Publiques SciencesPo Spring 2013 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Roadmap Money and Interest Rates Introduction
More informationUpgrading business investment
218 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF TURKEY Upgrading business investment Paris, 13 July 218 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-turkey.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Growth remains strong despite headwinds
More informationWORKING PAPERS. Global Trends of Multi-Factor Productivity. Jeong Yeon Lee. Economics Series. No. 136, March 2014
WORKING PAPERS E A S T- W E S T C E N T E R WOR K I N G PAP E R S Economics Series No. 136, March 2014 Global Trends of Multi-Factor Productivity Jeong Yeon Lee E A S T- W E S T C E N T E R WOR K I N G
More informationThe Norwegian Economy
The Norwegian Economy NORINT0500 - Norwegian Life and Society Spring 2018 Hilde Karoline Midsem 19.03.2018 Outline of today s lecture 1. Some facts 2. Production, trade and the history of oil 3. The labor
More informationTHE INDEPENDENCE OF ECONOMIC REGULATORS
THE INDEPENDENCE OF ECONOMIC REGULATORS Filippo Cavassini Policy Analyst Regulatory Policy Division Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate RPI Annual Westminster Conference London, 23
More informationMonetary Policy Implementation During US Policy Normalization. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México JP Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 1 October 214 1 Outline 1 Introduction 2 Monetary Policy in 214-15 a. The External Environment b. Domestic
More informationUK Economic Performance since 1997: Growth and Productivity
UK Economic Performance since 1997: Growth and Productivity Anna Valero: Centre for Economic Performance, LSE John Van Reenen: Centre for Economic Performance & LSE CEP/CAGE/IFS Special Session on Growth
More informationUnemployment in the Great Recession
Unemployment in the Great Recession Christopher A Pissarides London School of Economics The British Academy Keynes lecture 30 October 2012 1 Introductory remarks: Timings Great Recession started with a
More information2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF POLAND
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF POLAND Towards an innovative and inclusive economy Warsaw, 19 March 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-poland.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Main messages Economic
More informationECONOMIC POLICY CHALLENGES FOR DENMARK FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
ECONOMIC POLICY CHALLENGES FOR DENMARK FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Ludger Schuknecht OECD Deputy Secretary General Danish Economic Society Copenhagen 15 January, 219 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-denmark.htm
More informationEarnings related schemes: Design, options and experience. Edward Whitehouse
Earnings related schemes: Design, options and experience Edward Whitehouse Retirement-income systems: goal Primary objective ensuring older people have a decent standard of living in retirement Two interpretations
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook What s cooking for?
Global Economic Outlook What s cooking for? Macro Research Hans Bevers Chief Economist Degroof Petercam Agenda Continuing recovery Slowflation to pick up from here Central bankers turning more hawkish
More informationInterim Economic Assessment
Interim Economic Assessment Ongoing recovery for advanced economies, variation among emerging economies 11 March 1 Overall, most signs point to a continued underlying strengthening of the pace of growth
More informationWaiting for the Recovery: OECD Labour Markets in the Wake of the Crisis
OECD Employment Outlook 212 OECD 212 Chapter 1 Waiting for the Recovery: OECD Labour Markets in the Wake of the Crisis The economic recovery has been weak or uneven and some countries have fallen back
More informationImplications of Fiscal Austerity for U.S. Monetary Policy
Implications of Fiscal Austerity for U.S. Monetary Policy Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Boston The Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Conference
More informationCan employment be increased only at the cost of more inequality?
Can employment be increased only at the cost of more inequality? Engines for More and Better Jobs in Europe ZEW Conference, Mannheim April 2013 Torben M Andersen Aarhus University Policy questions How
More informationSlovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges
Copyright rests with the author Slovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges Presentation by Mark De Broeck European Department, IMF Seminar Organized by the European Commission November
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationState Involvement and Economic Growth
State Involvement and Economic Growth (The Future of the European Economy: Over to the State, or to the Market?) 27th Economic Forum Krynica, Poland September 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident
More informationEFFECTS OF NEW US AUTO TARIFFS ON GERMAN EXPORTS, AND ON INDUSTRY VALUE ADDED AROUND THE WORLD
1 ifo Institute ifo Center for International Economics Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger Feb 15, 2019 EFFECTS OF NEW US AUTO TARIFFS ON GERMAN EXPORTS, AND ON INDUSTRY VALUE ADDED AROUND THE WORLD
More informationIncome support for older persons in the Republic of Korea : a perspective of older persons
ESCAP Regional Consultation Incheon, Republic of Korea Income support for older persons in the Republic of Korea : a perspective of older persons Soo-Wan Kim (Kangnam University) 1 I. Introduction This
More informationThe Irish economy and the New Normal of 2018 and 2019
The Irish economy and the New Normal of 2018 and 2019 Corporate Treasury: Mark Hensey Mark.hensey@kbc.ie 01 4321400 Business Banking: Kevin McCarthy Kevin.mccarthy@kbc.ie 0876684261 Austin Hughes Chief
More informationRecommendation for a COUNCIL IMPLEMENTING DECISION. imposing a fine on Spain for failure to take effective action to address an excessive deficit
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 27.7.2016 COM(2016) 517 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL IMPLEMENTING DECISION imposing a fine on Spain for failure to take effective action to address an excessive deficit
More informationFiscal policy in Europe: What is the appropriate stance?
Fiscal policy in Europe: What is the appropriate stance? Gernot Müller (U Bonn and CEPR) ETLA fiscal policy seminar Helsinki, October 16, 212 Fiscal stance in Europe Estimating multipliers Fiscal policy
More informationTrumponomics and the consequences for the policy mix December 2016
PERSPECTIVES Trumponomics and the consequences for the policy mix December 2016 The election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States is, in our view, a game changer. His economic programme
More information3 REDUCING THE EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF CORPORATE BALANCE SHEET REPAIR
3 REDUCING THE EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF CORPORATE BALANCE SHEET REPAIR Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng Corporate Balance Sheets Matter for Employment Corporate sector balance sheets in many euro area economies are
More informationPolicy Alternatives for a Return to Full Employment in Spain
November 2013 Policy Alternatives for a Return to Full Employment in Spain By David Rosnick and Mark Weisbrot * Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 400 Washington, DC
More informationThe near-term global economic outlook
Overview The near-term global economic outlook Paul van den Noord Counsellor to the Chief Economist OECD 1 Overview World growth has slowed, including in EMEs. Trade has weakened. Unemployment is high
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK No.80
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK No.8 Press Conference Paris, 8th November h Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist For a video link to the press conference and related material : www.oecd.org/oecdeconomicoutlook Summary
More informationPress briefing Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s
Press briefing Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s Paul Johnson, Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Anita Charlesworth, Director of Economics and Research, The Health Foundation
More informationIMPROVING TAX COMPLIANCE. 6th IMF-Japan High-Level Tax Conference For Asian Countries Tokyo; April 7, 2015
IMPROVING TAX COMPLIANCE 6th IMF-Japan High-Level Tax Conference For Asian Countries Tokyo; April 7, 2015 Outline Measurement and trends Some key methods and issues Managing compliance Supporting compliance
More informationOECD Economic Outlook. Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea Desk 25 November 2014
OECD Economic Outlook Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea Desk 5 November 1 The global economy is stuck in low gear World GDP growth Per cent, seasonally-adjusted annualised rate 8 6 - - -6-8 Average (1995-7)
More informationTHE TAX SYSTEM IN BELGIUM COMPARED TO OTHER OECD COUNTRIES
THE TAX SYSTEM IN BELGIUM COMPARED TO OTHER OECD COUNTRIES TOWARDS A WELL-BALANCED FUNDAMENTAL TAX REFORM IN BELGIUM Bert Brys, Ph.D. 14 October 2013 Senior Tax Economist Centre for Tax Policy and Administration
More informationeducation (captured by the school leaving age), household income (measured on a ten-point
A Web-Appendix A.1 Information on data sources Individual level responses on benefit morale, tax morale, age, sex, marital status, children, education (captured by the school leaving age), household income
More informationIs the Euro Crisis Over?
Is the Euro Crisis Over? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva 25 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did
More informationGlobal Business Cycles
Global Business Cycles M. Ayhan Kose, Prakash Loungani, and Marco E. Terrones April 29 The 29 forecasts of economic activity, if realized, would qualify this year as the most severe global recession during
More information