United Energy(HK.0467)
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- Sophia Long
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1 Substantial Growth on Performance, Buy Rating for the First Time Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 0467 HK 0467.HK 0467.HK Industry: Oil & Gas Annual report review Rating: Buy Closing price:1.2 Target price:1.92 Company profile United Energy Group Limited, an energy company listed on HKEx, is the fourth largest oil & gas company following Sinopec, CNPC and CNOOC. It is mainly engaged in upstream exploitation, development and production of petroleum and natural gas as well as providing oilfield-related patented technology support, property investment and management services. Investment summary In 2012, the company registered a business income of HKD billion. In comparison with the figure in the same period of 2011, i.e. HKD 877 million, the company realized a growth rate at 266%. The gross profit gained in 2012, totally HKD billion, increased by 853% compared with the HKD 135 million gross profit earned in the same period of In terms of net profit attributed to equity shareholders, it rose up by 47.9% to HKD 786 million or HK 6.1 cents earnings per share. The substantial growth benefited from the great improvement of its oil and gas exploitation profitability in Pakistan. In 2011, the company invested HKD 5.8 billion to purchase oil and gas assets of BP in Pakistan and successfully drilled 11 exploitation wells and 20 development wells, and the average daily net production increased by 17.8% to 24,700 barrel equivalent. The exploration capacity has ranked fourth after Sinopec, CNPC and CNOOC. The enhanced oil recovery project located in Liaohe is the largest commercial oilfield EOR project in China. In 2012, the average daily net oil and gas production of the project increased sharply by 75.3% on a year-on-year basis. The management of the company planned to raise the daily net production above 3000 barrels of oil, pushing down the exploitation cost below USD 35 per barrel in five years. The patented fire-flooding technology of the company is expected to have a wide application in the future. This technology can improve oil production efficiency at aging oilfields, effectively slow down the aging process and extend exploitation period. The technology coverage increased to 37% at the end of 2012 from approximately 25% in development period. The management is confident in improving the coverage above 80% in the following 5 years. United Energy Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Phillip Securities Research Rating 1.00 Buy - Previous Rating n/a Not Rated Target Price (HKD) Previous Target Price (HKD) n/a Closing Price (HKD) 1.20 Expected Capital Gains (%) 60.0% Expected Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% Expected Total Return (%) 60.0% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 0.20 Market Cap. (HKD mn) #NAME? 15, w eek range (HKD) 1.04 #NAME? Closing Price in in w eek range Key Financial Summary FYE F 2014F Revenue (HKD mn) 877 3,214 4,921 6,103 Net Profit, adj. (HKD mn) ,263 1,494 EPS, adj. (HKD) P/E (X),adj BVPS (HKD) P/B (X) DPS (HKD) Div. Yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method EV 01-May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov-12 0% 0% 50% 100% 01-Dec Jan Feb Mar-13 Volume, Volume, mn mn hk hk equity equity HSI HSI 01-Apr Raw Beta Market Ca 52 w eek r Closing Pr The company entered into an USD 5 billion financing agreement with China Development Bank Hong Kong, which will provide financing services, e.g. advices and planning, with respect to the company s oil and natural gas acquisition, and give the company a priority in loan application. With strong capital support, the company may continue to purchase overseas high-quality assets and further expand its businesses scale. Phillip Research libin@phillip.com.cn (0) of 1
2 As to money supply, both Chinese government s interest reduction or massive reverse repurchase and continuous quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by Europe and the United States will drive up international crude oil price. In geopolitics, the continued tension in Middle East will affect crude oil supply and shore up the oil price. In macro-economy, as economy revives continuously in Europe and the United States, industrial and consumption demands for petroleum will continue to expand and push up oil price. For these reasons, we anticipate that the profitability for upstream businesses of the company will increase continuously. Graph 3: The company s capital expenditure in 2012 (HKD mn) On Apr.26th, 2013, the company announced its decision to fund HKD 744,700 in repurchasing 620,600 shares at an average price of HKD 1.2 per share. This was the first time for the company to repurchase its shares since the beginning of It is predicted that the company intends to repurchase shares a second time within this year and the action may improve its market valuation continuously. In a word, we believe the company is in a fast growing stage and its Graph 4: The trend and prediction of the company s P/E and P/B purchase of high-quality assets will continuously improve profitability of the company s upstream businesses. By taking all factors into consideration, we set 6-month target price of the company as HKD 1.92 and gave the company a Buy rating for the first time. Graph 1: The trend and prediction of the company's revenue and profit (HKD mn) Graph 2: The distribution of the company s oil and gas reserves (mn bbl) 2 of 2
3 Financial Predications Project (HKD mn) Annually (As of December 31) F 2014F Revenue 877 3,214 4,921 6,103 Cost 741 1,923 2,807 3,684 Gross Profit 135 1,291 2,114 2,419 Other Income Operating Expenses ,106 Operating Profit & Loss ,283 1,471 Profit Before Tax ,205 1,493 Profit Before Unusual Project ,357 1,584 Net Profit ,263 1,494 Basic EPS Before Unusual Project Basic EPS Dilluted EPS Before Unusual Project Dilluted EPS Dividend Per Share Total Current Asset 2,652 3,379 3,928 4,572 Total Fixed Asset 10,721 11,433 13,927 15,827 Total Asset 13,372 14,812 17,855 20,399 Total Current C Liability 1,065 1,673 2,036 2,674 Total Fixed Liability 6,224 6,362 7,823 8,829 Total Liability 7,289 8,035 9,859 11,503 Total Shareholder's Equity 6,083 6,777 7,996 8,896 Book Value Per Share P/E Ratio P/B Ratio of 3
4 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation. GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the Research ) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Disclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report. Firm s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation. Availability The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ( PSHK ) believed to be accurate. PSHK does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. PSHK (or its affiliates or employees) may have positions in relevant investment products. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited 4 of 4
5 Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore Tel : (65) Fax : (65) Website: HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax (852) Websites: INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta Indonesia Tel (62-21) Fax (62-21) Website: THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66-2) / Fax (66-2) Website UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) Fax (44-20) Website: MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) Fax (603) Website: JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Tel (81-3) Fax (81-3) Website: CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318, Postal code Tel (86-21) Fax (86-21) Website: FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33-1) Fax (33-1) Website: UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel Fax AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) Fax (613) Website: 5 of 5
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