Banco Central de la República Argentina
|
|
- Lesley Blair
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Macroeconomic effects of commodity prices evolution and its relation with monetary policy in emerging countries Banco Central de la República Argentina The implementation of monetary policy: Lessons from the crisis and challenges for coming years Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, October 211 1
2 Global framework Agenda Long term evolution of commodity prices Structural and short term factors Domestic issues The linkages bt between commodity prices and economic performance EMEs. Stylized facts Economic policy challenges. The case of Argentina 2
3 Agenda Global framework Long term evolution of commodity prices Structural and short term factors Domestic issues The linkages between commodity prices and economic performance EMEs. Stylized facts Economic policy challenges. The case of Argentina 3
4 Commodity prices accumulated large increases in recent months, in some cases exceeding 28 levels 7, Jan' 71=1 Commodity prices (current US$) 6, Ener gy 5, Agricultural 4, Metals and Minerals 3, 2, 1, Jan-71 Feb-76 Mar-81 Apr-86 May-91 Jun-96 Jul-1 Aug-6 Sep-11 *: Includes cocoa, coffee, tea, coconut oil, peanut oil, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, barley, corn, Source: World Bank rice, wheat, banana, beef, chicken, oranges, sugar, wood, cotton, rubber and tobacco. 4
5 The hikes are widespread due to the presence of common factors driving the rise and the high correlation between these prices 1971=1 8 Commodity yprices (current US$ index) 1971=1 8 8, Soybeans Corn Wheat Crude oil (right axis) 7, 6, 5, 4 4, 3 3, 2 2, 1 1, Dec-71 Dec-77 Dec-83 Dec-89 Dec-95 Dec-1 Dec-7 Source: World Bank 5
6 Expressed in real terms, the increases are still significant, although not reaching the peak achieved in agriculture in the 7s 1971=1 1, 9 Ener gy Agriculture 8 Mtl Metals and minerals 7 6 Real commodity prices (in constant SDR*) 1, 1971= Sep-5 Sep-6 Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep-1 Sep Dec-71 Dec-76 Dec-81 Dec-86 Dec-91 Dec-96 Dec-1 Dec-6 * Deflated by weighted average CPI of SDR currencies (dollar, euro, yen and pound sterling). **: Includes cocoa, coffee, tea, coconut oil, peanut oil, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, barley, corn, rice, wheat, banana, beef, chicken, oranges, sugar, wood, cotton, rubber and tobacco. Source: BCRA from Bloomberg, World Bank and IMF 6
7 The boom in prices was accompanied by more volatility than in previous periods Standard deviation* of annual growth of commodity prices 1. % 's 9's 's Energy Agriculture Metales and Minerals Source: BCRA from World Bank data *:The Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of values from the mean (average). 7
8 Global framework Agenda Long term evolution of commodity prices Structural and short term factors Domestic issues The linkages bt between commodity prices and economic performance EMEs. Stylized facts Economic policy challenges. The case of Argentina 8
9 Fundamental factors affecting the prices of raw materials Food ddemandd Structural Biofuels Production capacity Stocks Medium term Costs Short term Regulations Weather/Production US dollar changes Commodities as financial assets 9
10 Although declining rates, world population will continue to expand in the coming decades % World population p Emerging countries population (right axis) Advanced countries population (right axis) Emerging coutries population growth Advanced coutries population growth billions Source: Population Division of the UN -2 1
11 The reduction of infant mortality is accompanied by a sharp increase in life expectancy years Life Expectancy and Infant Mortality Advanced coutries infant mortality (right axis) Emerging countries infant mortality (right axis) Advanced countries life expectancy Emerging countries life expectancy in 1 live births Source: Population Division of the UN 11
12 Beyond the reduction achieved in the incidence rate, the number of hungry people showed a slight constant increase million 1, In number of people Impact of World Hunger % 22 9 In percentage (right axis) Sour ce: FAO
13 It is expected that food consumption grows substantially in the next decades, partly due to population growth billions World population and food demand Grains demand (right axis) World population million tons 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Source: BCRA from UNCTAD and FAO data 13
14 The sustained increase in production in recent years accompanied with a limited performance the demand growth 196= World grain sown area, production and yield W orld production World sown area World yield / / / /1991 2/21 21/211* * September estimated Source: BCRA from USDA data 14
15 There is a substantial increase in food consumption in emerging economies, especially China and India 14 million tons China. Soybean oil consumption million % India. Soybean oil consumption tons % 1 Soybean oil demand 12 Soybean oil demand Share in global consumption (right axis) 8 1 Share in global consumption (right axis) / / / /23 26/27 21/11*. 199/ / / /23 26/27 21/11* Source: BCRA from USDA data *September forecast Fb f t Source: BCRA from USDA data *September forecast Fb f t 15
16 To the growth in world demand for food is added the boom in biofuels industry million tons For ethanol production Other uses Ethanol / total (right axis) USA corn consumption % /25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ /212* Source: BCRA from USDA and FAPRI data *September estimates 16
17 that also received pressures for oil price developments US$ per barrel 12 Crude oil price and biofuels production million galons 3, 1 Biofuels production (right axis) 25, 8 Crude oil price 2, 6 15, 4 1, 2 5, Source: World Bank and FAPRI 17
18 The speculative demand in the markets for agricultural products have implicated more volatility in prices in recent years thousands of W heat. Prices and open interest of future contracts and options* contracts US$/tn thousands of Corn. Prices and open interest of future contracts and options* contracts US$/tn. 3, , , , Jan-7 Oct-7 Jul-8 Apr-9 Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-11 Source: US CFTC (*) Data for the last week of each Jan-7 O ct -7 Jul-8 A pr -9 Jan-1 O ct -1 Jul-11 Source: US CFTC (*) Data for the last week of each thousands of contracts 1,2 Soybeans. Prices and open interest of future contracts and options* US$/tn. 7 1, Open interest Price (right axis) 2 1 Jan-7 Oct-7 Jul-8 Apr-9 Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-11 Source: US CFTC (*) Data for the last week of each 18
19 The depreciation of the dollar contributed to the rise in commodities prices 25 index =1 25 Commodity prices and US dollar rate US$/Euro Commodity prices US$/Euro (right axis) dollar depreciation dollar appreciation Sep-5 Sep-6 Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep Sep-11 Source: Bloomberg and IMF 19
20 Global framework Agenda Long term evolution of commodity prices Structural and short term factors Domestic issues The linkages between commodity prices and economic performance EMEs. Stylized facts Economic policy challenges. The case of Argentina 2
21 Given the consumption baskets, the impact of food prices is greater in emerging economies than in advanced ones 4 % g Weight of food in the CPI Latin America Advanced Economies Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela United Sour ce: BIS States Canada Eurozone 21
22 In emerging countries, there is a positive correlation between international food prices and domestic consumer indexes Latin America. Selected countries. Consumer prices y.o.y. % chg. 1 y.o.y. % chg Brazil Mexico Chile Uruguay Colombia -2 Food price index (right axis) -4 Sep-5 Sep-6 Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep-1-4 Sep-11 Source: BCRA from Bloomberg and W orld Bank data 22
23 In Argentina the rise in commodity values also has a significant incidence on prices Price indexes 24 % (y.o.y. chg.) % GDP Implicit Prices Private Consumption Implicit Prices -2-8 W holesale Price Index -12 Commodities prices in $ (IPMP; right axis) Q1-4 Q1-5 Q1-6 Q1-7 Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 Q IPMP: BCRA Commodity Price Index
24 Small open economy Stilyzed Facts of Argentina Low degree of financial deepening (regarding to banking sector and capital market) Highly dollarized d Current account highly dependent on its trade balance 24
25 Impact of an increase in commodity prices Effectin consumer prices Foreign exchange earnings Exchange rate evolution Currency mismatches Monetary aggregates PublicFinance Less exposure from the financial system to the public sector 25
26 Argentina is a strong net exporter of commodities, especially agricultural million US$ 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, Expor t s Imports Trade balance Foreign trade by product groups (accum. 12 months to July 211) Primary products Agricultural Industrial Fuels and energy manufactures manufactures Source: BCRA from INDEC data 26
27 Commodity exports represent an important portion of total exports 8, million US$ Argentina. Goods Exports 7, Crude oil Copper 6, Soybean complex Corn 5, Wheat Rest 4, (21) Wheat 1% Corn 5% Rest 62% Soybean complex 26% Crude oil 4% Copper 2% 3, 2, 1, Source: BCRA From INDEC data 27
28 Export revenues from agricultural exports show a seasonal behavior that affects domestic monetary markets Agricultural export settlements million US$ 4, 3,5 3, 2, (Oilseeds and cereals) billion US$ Quarterly settlements I II III IV 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov Dec Source: BCRA from CIARA-CEC data 28
29 The evolution of the exchange rate has shown low volatility despite external shocks Dec'1 = Argentina. Exchange rate $/US$ Multilateral real exchange rate (deflated by wages) Nominal exchange rate (rigth axis) Jan-1 Jan-3 Jan-5 Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Source: BCRA from Bloomberg data. 29
30 Central Bank reduces the volatility of the exchange rate through intervention in the foreign exchange market $/u$s FX Central Bank's operations (right scale) Exchange rate ($/u$s) FX Market u$s million Jan-3 Dec-3 Dec-4 Dec-5 Dec-6 Mar-8 Feb-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Sour ce: BCRA
31 Exchange interventions are accompanied by sterilization operations million $ 35 Sterilization ti of FX Operations (3 month moving average) Expansion of the MB due to FX operation Sterilization due to Reverse Repo+BCRA Securities+Rediscounts+Reserves Requirements Jan-5 Oct-5 Jul-6 Apr-7 Jan-8 Oct-8 Jul-9 Apr-1 Jan-11 Oct-11 Sour ce: BCRA 31
32 % 19 Central lbank also tries to equilibrate the money market LEBACs Int er est Rat es - Prim ary Mar ket 17 3 Months 4 Months 1 Months 12 Months Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul Source: BCRA
33 Exchange rate evolution has a direct effect on domestic deposits 14% % Exchange Rate Volatility and Retail Time Deposits billion of US$ 4 1% 3 6% 2 2% 1-2% -1-6% 2 days cumulative change of International ti Reserves due to FX operations -right scale- -2-1% Retail Time Deposit 2 days Rate of Change (%) -3 Annualized Volatility ($/US$) -14% May-5 May-6 May-7 May-8 May-9 May-1 May-11 Sour ce: BCRA -4 33
34 Global framework Agenda Long term evolution of commodity prices Structural and short term factors Domestic issues The linkages bt between commodity prices and economic performance EMEs. Stylized facts Economic policy challenges. The case of Argentina 34
35 The pillars of the monetary policy are based on: Monetary policy based in the control of monetary aggregates International Reserves Accumulation with precautionary motive Regulation of capital flows and managed float exchange rate Regulatory and supervisory policies to strengthen the banking system and promote financial intermediation Objectives Ensuring sustainable growth and development Provide monetary and financial stability Minimize external vulnerability 35
36 Economic Policy Challenges After several decades, the sustained rise in commodity prices represents an opportunity for the EMEs. There are structural conditions for the situation to continue. Economic policy should accommodate to this new boom scenario where uncertainty in international financial markets is also an issue. Favorable conditions should be used to address structural conditions of poverty and inequality. The mainfocus is to sustain economic growth in a highh and volatile l commodity prices environment, paying attention to the impact on food prices. 36
37 Monetary Policy Challenges Large fluctuations in commodity prices could generate negative effects on domestic prices and real exchange rates. The "external prosperity" can be transferred to local economies without introducing monetary or relative prices imbalances. Improvements in local financial systems are needed to channel the flow of capital to productive uses and to allow central banks tomanage liquidity efficiently. Particularly l monetarypolicy has the adequate toolkit to handle this kind of issues, and the recent financial crisis management is an example of this. 37
38 Monetary Policy Challenges In open small economies, with shallow in its financial and capital markets, kt like Argentina, is vital toregulate lt the flow of financiali capital in the short term to avoid the generation of monetary imbalances and pressures on the foreign exchange market In particular, monetary policy should aim at providing a framework of equilibrium in the monetary and financial system stability 38
39 Thank you
Commodity Prices Perspectives and Challenges for the Monetary Policy
Commodity Prices Perspectives and Challenges Laura Cuccaro VI Meeting of Monetary Policy Advisors Bogotá, Colombia, 8-9 April 21 Agenda (1) Economic and social importance of agriculture for Latin America
More informationMonetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
More informationGovernor Central Bank of Argentina
Banco Central de la República Argentina "International Crisis and Policy Space: Challenges for Emerging Countries" Mercedes Marcó del Pont Governor Central Bank of Argentina 2th Annual Hyman P. Minsky
More informationMONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT MARCH 2013 HIGHLIGHTS
Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT MARCH 2013 HIGHLIGHTS The overall growth of GDP at factor cost at constant prices, as per
More informationStylized Facts of Commodity Production and Trade in LAC
CHAPTER 2 Stylized Facts of Commodity Production and Trade in LAC Natural resource production shows considerable heterogeneity across LAC countries along a number of dimensions. Before analyzing the implications
More informationMONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT MARCH 2014
Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT MARCH 2014 HIGHLIGHTS The growth of GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices (real
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationPeru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook
Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru October 2016 Content 1. Slow Global Recovery 5. Gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus 2. Reversal in Peru s external
More informationMexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document
More informationINFLATION REPORT. March Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts
INFLATION REPORT March 2016 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 March 2016 International environment Public Monetary
More informationCommodities: A Strategic Asset Allocation?
FINANCE, INVESTMENT & RISK MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE 15-17 JUNE 2008 HILTON DEANSGATE, MANCHESTER Commodities: A Strategic Asset Allocation? John.McManus@union-investment.de Commodities: A Distinct Asset Class
More informationInflation Report. July September 2012
July September 1 November 7, 1 1 Outline 1 External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks External Conditions The growth rate
More informationPrice and Inflation. Chapter-3. Global Inflation Scenario. Chart 3.1 National CPI inflation (12-month average : base FY06=100)
Global Inflation Scenario 3.1 Global inflation remained controlled in 1 while some commodity prices were still high. Decline in commodity prices, especially fuels and foods, has contributed to the decrease
More informationStructural Reforms in the Argentine Economy: Achievements and Pending Reforms
Structural Reforms in the Argentine Economy: Achievements and Pending Reforms Achievements Elimination of Capital Flows Controls ( cepo ) Agreement with holdouts and resolution of conflicts with other
More informationExternal Factors, Macro Policies and Growth in LAC: Is Performance that Good?
External Factors, Macro Policies and Growth in LAC: Is Performance that Good? Alejandro Izquierdo IADB Emerging Powers in Global Governance Conference Paris, July 6, 2007 (based on work with Ernesto Talvi)
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2016
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2016 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationPeru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. March 2015
Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3.
More informationRecent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico
Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Northeast Chapter New York City, 2 June 2017
More informationMexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez
Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Chicago, IL, August 6, 2015 Contents 1 Moderate economic growth 2 Waiting for the liftoff 3 Taming inflation 2 Since 2014, Mexico s economic recovery
More informationLatin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
More informationPeru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. September 2015
Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru September 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. July 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT July 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall not
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationExchange rate policy and inflation targeting in colombia
Exchange rate policy and inflation targeting in colombia Jorge Toro Head of Economic Studies Department Banco de la República, Colombia ECB, Frankfurt 1,2 March 2007 Appreciation OF THE EXCHANGE RATE Steady
More informationThe Future of Mexican Monetary Policy
The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Mexico Summit Mexico City, 2 March 2017 */ The views expressed herein are strictly personal.
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. December 2014
SACU INFLATION REPORT December 2014 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationMCALINDEN RESEARCH WEEKLY MACRO MONITOR
MCALINDEN RESEARCH WEEKLY MACRO MONITOR 1 MARCH 217 US Growth Inflation Money and Credit Sentiment/Other Existing Home Sales up House Prices CreditForecast Households steady Consumer Sentiment New Home
More informationMacroeconomic Outlook: Implications for Agriculture. It has been 26 years since we have experienced a significant recession
Macroeconomic Outlook: Implications for Agriculture John B. Penson, Jr. Regents Professor and Stiles Professor of Agriculture Texas A&M University Our Recession History September 1902 August1904 23 May
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2017
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2017 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationFEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS BANKING AND POLICY STUDIES
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS BANKING AND POLICY STUDIES Minneapolis Options Report December 13 th Commodity Markets Option trading rose relative to two weeks ago to a more average level last week
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationINFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts June 2010
INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2010-2012 June 2010 International environment Public finance Monetary policy: Reference interest rate quantitative easing instruments Exchange
More informationA global economic glimpse and the economic outlook for Latin America
A global economic glimpse and the economic outlook for Latin America Orlando J. Ferreres Centro de Estudios Económicos Orlando J. Ferreres & Asociados AGENDA World Economy: 2016/17 outlook Latin America:
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. January 2017
SACU INFLATION REPORT January 2017 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationCommodity Markets and Food Security
Commodity Markets and Food Security Joachim von Braun Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Germany Global Cooperation for Sustainable Growth and Development Views from G20 Countries
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2015
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2015 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationFourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 26 November 2014
Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 26 November 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationFundamental Factors Affecting Agricultural and Other Commodities. Research & Product Development Updated July 11, 2008
Fundamental Factors Affecting Agricultural and Other Commodities Research & Product Development Updated July 11, 2008 Outline Review of key supply and demand factors affecting commodity markets World stocks-to-use
More informationEarnings Conference Call First Quarter 2018
Earnings Conference Call First Quarter 2018 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. April 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT April 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall not
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. December 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT December 201 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. January 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT January 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationOutlook for the Mexican Economy Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México. April, 2018
Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México April, Outline 1 External Conditions Current Outlook.1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants in Mexico Evolution of Economic Activity Recent
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team 1 December 22, 20 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected
More informationPower of Travel Promotion Evolution
Power of Travel Promotion Evolution Promotion More Important than Ever Power of Promotion $7 million Median state = marketing budget FY 2014-15 OR 45 seconds worth of Super Bowl ads $100 million = Presidential
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. December 2017
SACU INFLATION REPORT December 20 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall not
More informationExchange Rates and Agricultural Commodity Prices
Exchange Rates and Agricultural Commodity Prices Philip Abbott, Exchange Rates, Prices, and Agricultural Trade: What Have We Learned? IATRC sponsored International Track session, AAEA Annual Meeting Denver,
More informationLatin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017
Latin America Outlook 2nd QUARTER Latin America Outlook 2Q17 Main messages 1. Global growth keeps increasing, and uncertainty about US policies starts to fade. Nevertheless, global risks remain. 2. The
More informationoverview October, 2009
Ecuador: macroeconomic overview October, 2009 Real Sector - GDP -Inflation -Unemployment On January 2000, Ecuador adopted a dollarized monetary regime. Economic activity registered sustained average annual
More informationINFLAT N REPORT. Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts December 2016 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU
INFLAT N REPORT December 2016 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2018 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2018 December 2016 International
More informationAPPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. October 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT October 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationCommon Drivers in Emerging Market Spreads and Commodity Prices
Common Drivers in Emerging Market Spreads and Commodity Prices Diego Bastourre (BCRA) Javier Ibarlucia (BCRA) Jorge Carrera (BCRA) Mariano Sardi (BCRA) Fourth BIS Consultative Council for the Americas
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized
More informationAn Uneven Recovery. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department
International Monetary Fund November 1, 2018 An Uneven Recovery Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department I. Key Messages II. Global Crosscurrents III.
More informationDeveloping Countries to Remain Resilient - Risks Considerable
Developing Countries to Remain Resilient - Risks Considerable Financial turmoil a serious threat that has proven manageable so far Developing country dynamism cushions the effect on growth while inflationary
More informationSHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS FOR LATIN AMERICA
SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS FOR LATIN AMERICA Ignacio Hernando Meeting of International Relations Managers Banco de España, 9 July 215 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS CONTENT 1. The Latin America economy at
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team 1 September 18, 20 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team 1 December 17, 20 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected
More informationOtaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank
Otaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank The 11th International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development April 6-8, 2010 Moscow
More informationWeekly Report N 5 February 6, 2015
Weekly Report N 5 February 6, 2015 Indicators Currency grew 11.0 percent in the last twelve months Corporate interest rate in soles fell to 4.3 percent Trade surplus in December: US$ 142 million Price
More informationMichael V. Dunn Commissioner Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Agricultural Outlook Forum February 24,
Michael V. Dunn Commissioner Commodity Futures Trading Commission Agricultural Outlook Forum February 24, 2011 1 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Mission Statement To Protect Market Users and the Public
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team March, 2 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities
More informationOrlando J. Ferreres & Associates A R G E N T I N A. Economic Situation and Perspectives. Comité Mixto Empresarios Argentino-Japonés
Orlando J. Ferreres & Associates A R G E N T I N A Economic Situation and Perspectives Comité Mixto Empresarios Argentino-Japonés Buenos Aires, December 5 th 2014 1 CONTENTS World Economy Argentina: Scenarios
More informationStochastic analysis of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
Stochastic analysis of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 217-226 The Agricultural Outlook projects future outcomes based on a specific set of assumptions about policies, the responsiveness of market participants
More informationLatin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns
Latin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns October 11, 211 Agenda Latin America Sovereigns: Ratings Trajectory In A Weakening Global Environment
More informationForecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta
Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta Huiyu(Evelyn) Huang Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo& Co., LLC June 23, 215 For presentation at ISF 215. The opinions expressed here are solely
More informationWeekly Flows by Sector (US$mn) Top 5 Inflows/Outflows (US$mn) Top 5 / Bottom 5 Performers. TOTAL Diversified Energy Industrial
Weekly Flows by Sector (US$mn) TOTAL Diversified Energy Industrial Precious -81 Agriculture Livestock Equities FX -3-38 -1 2 8 5 75-1 -5 5 1 Top 5 Inflows/Outflows (US$mn) Agriculture Copper USD Coffee
More informationExchange Rate and Fiscal Policies in developing countries: leaning against the wind?
Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policies in developing countries: leaning against the wind? Guillermo Perry Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank Conference on Emerging Powers in
More informationThe Argentine economy in the new political and international environment. MIGUEL A. KIGUEL econviews
The Argentine economy in the new political and international environment MIGUEL A. KIGUEL econviews October 2009 1 Outline The international environment is helping Argentina once again The domestic financial
More informationMonetary Policy Outlook for Mexico
Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 8 October 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 Monetary Policy in Mexico Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation
More informationMonetary and Exchange Rate Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Colombia
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Colombia Hernando Vargas Banco de la República Colombia March, 2009 Contents I. The state of the Colombian economy
More informationSelf Insurance, Regional Arrangements, and Preemptive Financing: The experience of Brazil
Crisis Prevention in Emerging Markets Self Insurance, Regional Arrangements, and Preemptive Financing: The experience Brazil High Level Seminar on Crisis Prevention July 1-11, 11, 26 Singapore Joaquim
More informationJulio Velarde Governor Central Reserve Bank of Peru Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia October 2011
Monetary Policy Implementation: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for Coming Years Julio Velarde Governor Central Reserve Bank of Peru Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia October 2011 Content 1. Introductory remarks
More informationConference Call 2Q17
Conference Call 2Q17 1 Highlights 2Q17 Net Revenue of R$57.7 million in 6M17. Net Income of R$1.6 million in 6M17. Adjusted EBITDA of R$1.9 million in 6M17. Supply of 869.5 thousand tons of sugarcane in
More informationOutlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean. Saul Lizondo. Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund
Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean Saul Lizondo Associate Director Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund Trinidad id d and Tobago, September, 1 Presentation
More informationBanco Galicia. Investor Presentation. August 2014
Banco Galicia Investor Presentation August 214 Agenda» The Argentine Economy»The Argentine Financial System»Banco Galicia»Annex 2 GDP % Change Economic Activity 12% 9 9% 8,8% 9,% 9,2% 8,4% 8,% 9,1% 8.%
More informationMarket Outlook for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans
Market Outlook for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans Identifying Risks - Protecting Profits Can you go wrong with $5 Corn, $12 Beans and $8 Wheat? Progressive Farmer Meeting St. Johns, Michigan Jim Hilker Agriculture,
More informationLatin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018
Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential
More informationECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 41, NOVEMBER Statistical tables
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 41, NOVEMBER 2005 APPENDIX Appendix Statistical tables The world economy Table a1 GDP at constant prices a2 Industrial production a3 Consumer prices a4 External current account
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. November 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT November 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationEconomic & Financial Indicators. November Banco de Cabo Verde
Economic & Financial Indicators November Banco de Cabo Verde Monetary Policy Report BANCO DE CABO VERDE Department of Economic Studies and Statistics Avenida Amílcar Cabral, 27 CP 7600-101 - Praia - Cabo
More informationConfronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Coordinators
Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Policy Trade-offs May for 20, Unprecedented 2009 - Maison Times: Confronting de l Amérique the Global Crisis Latine, America, ParisIADB,
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team 1 November 20 www.imf.org/commodities sbeidasstrom@imf.org Today we are launching the Commodity Outlook and Risks. This new monthly publication
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationFUTURES PRICES. Grain and Oilseed Futures. Thursday, December 21, 2006
Grain and Oilseed Futures 23 LIFETIME OPEN OPEN HIGH LOW SETTLE CHG HIGH LOW INT Corn (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. Mar 373.00 378.50 372.75 377.75 +5.00 393.50 245.25 590,136 May 381.00 386.25 381.00
More informationFactors in the Hog Market. Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo Ag Industries
Factors in the Hog Market June 2011 Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo Ag Industries System analysis: new linkages No more domestic markets No market will be purely domestic New secondary drivers Global
More informationMarket Outlook Considerations Week Beginning May 14, 2018
Market Outlook Considerations Week Beginning May 14, 2018 DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES-ONLY Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness University
More informationSoybeans face make or break moment Futures need a two-fer to avoid losses By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst
Soybeans face make or break moment Futures need a two-fer to avoid losses By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst A year ago USDA shocked the market by cutting its forecast of soybean production, helping
More informationINFLATION REPORT March 2010
INFLATION REPORT March 2010 Research Services Department Bank of Jamaica CONTENTS A. NOTE: March 2010 i B. APPENDIX: TABLE 1A: Jamaica Headline Inflation Rates 1 TABLE 1B: CPI without Food & Fuel (CPIFF)
More informationArgentina post-default
Argentina post-default MARCOS BUSCAGLIA m b u s c a g l i a @ a l b e r d i p a r t n e r s. c o m w w w. a l b e r d i p a r t n e rs. c o m M ay 2 0 1 6 1 Outline The honeymoon is over Will markets and
More informationAdvanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery
Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan
More informationEXECUTIVE SUMMARY. IPB dan UI TEAM
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IPB dan UI TEAM The discussion on commodity price volatility became crucial when the world was facing the multiple crisis - 3Fs phase (fuel, food, and financial) during the period of
More informationPrice and Inflation. Chapter-3. Global Inflation Scenario
Global Inflation Scenario. Higher energy prices lifted headline inflation rates in advanced, emerging market and developing economies in the first six months of. Core inflation (excluding food and energy
More informationMexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook?
Mexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook? Rafael Amiel, Director Latin America Economics IHS Global Insight Julio 2013 Mexico becomes fashionable again Mexico Makes
More informationLATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q2016 OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA. 4th QUARTER 2016
LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA 4th QUARTER LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q Main messages The global economy is heading for a slow recovery. Global GDP growth will improve slightly from the second
More information