RESEARCH Industrial Vacancy Report
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1 RESEARCH Industrial Vacancy Report
2 KEY FINDINGS As at December 2016, the national industrial vacancy rate as recorded by IPD was 5.8%. This is up from a revised 2.3% at December 2015 and the highest industrial sector vacancy level since Historically, rental growth has lagged shifts in vacancy rate as excess supply or demand typically takes months to filter through to pricing. The current point in the cycle is no different as the higher vacancy rate being experienced at present is not reflecting in rental growth yet. As at December 2016, the sector s base rental growth was recorded at 9.6% - the highest since The relatively strong basic rental growth of 9.6% recorded for the twelve months ended December hasn t translated into an equal quantum of capital growth which suggests that valuers are taking a more bearish view on the sector s future earnings. On a segment level, standard industrial units, warehousing and light manufacturing property came under some pressure during the last 12 months all recording negative real capital growth. Industrial manufacturing volumes remain constrained with the global economic slowdown, the weak local economy and lower commodity prices all playing a role. The future growth potential of the sector also depends on improvements in efficiency measures like capacity utilisation and unit labour costs. On the positive side, supply remains well below peak levels of 2007/ 08 and is the driving factor behind the low vacancy rate and above inflation rental growth in selected segments and geographies. Current volumes of building plans passed is at only 63% of levels recorded at the top of the cycle when viewed on a 12 month rolling basis. Building plan completions have also come under pressure with completions now at 69% of peak levels. With the exception of High Tech Industrial property, all other segments saw occupancy rates come under pressure during the 12 months. Analysing industrial property by box size reveals that there is currently more space available on the upper end of the size scale. The larger box-size segments also recorded the largest increases in vacancy rate over the twelve months. The larger-box segments has consistently had the lowest vacancy rate through the cycle which suggests that occupiers may currently be downsizing their space requirements or splitting up different industrial operations in order to increase capacity utilisation. While the aggregate industrial vacancy rate remains low in historical terms at 5.8% there is significant variance between nodes. Some nodes currently offer virtually zero available space & in most cases, these nodes are also seeing improvements in rental growth momentum. Meanwhile there are others with vacancy rates in excess of 6%. Rental growth in these nodes are mostly sluggish and in some cases slipping to levels below its 3 year average. 2
3 NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL VACANCY & RENTAL GROWTH TREND As at December 2016, the national industrial vacancy rate as recorded by IPD was 5.8%. This is up from a revised 2.3% at December 2015 and the highest industrial sector vacancy level since Historically, rental growth has lagged shifts in vacancy rate as excess supply or demand typically takes months to filter through to pricing. The current point in the cycle is no different as the higher vacancy rate being experienced at present is not reflecting in rental growth yet. As at December 2016, the sector s base rental growth was recorded at 9.6% - the highest since The relatively strong basic rental growth of 9.6% recorded for the twelve months ended December hasn t translated into an equal quantum of capital growth which suggests that valuers are taking a more bearish view on the sector s future earnings. Capital growth for the year was recorded at 3.7% which means that the so-called income residual factor (or valuer sentiment) detracted 8.1% from capital growth bearing in mind that yield compression also added +2.7% to capital growth. On a segment level, standard industrial units, warehousing and light manufacturing property came under some pressure during the last 12 months all recording negative real (inflation-adjusted) capital growth. High tech industrial property outperformed with a capital growth of 7.8% during the period under review and continues to benefit from a low vacancy rate and strong lease covenants. The next section of this report takes a closer view at the sector s macroeconomic fundamentals, which may provide an insight into their thinking. 3
4 ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Industrial manufacturing volumes remain constrained with the global economic slowdown, the weak local economy and lower commodity prices all playing a role. The future growth potential of the sector also depends on improvements in efficiency measures like capacity utilisation and unit labour costs. If these measures do not improve it is likely that the aggregate industrial vacancy rate will continue to slide towards the high single digits. For the year ending January, manufacturing volume growth was marginally positive and on an index basis is 11% off pre recession levels. This also reflects in the capacity utilisation percentage which is currently at 81.5%. Arguably, a level of at least 84% is needed to catalyse expansion in the sector as was the case in the mid-2000 s. Unit labour costs slowed to 2.9% year on year to January (the slowest growth since September 2010) reflecting the slow growth environment and consequent pressure on hiring in the manufacturing sector. 4
5 ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR On the positive side, supply remains well below peak levels of 2007/ 08 and is the driving factor behind the low vacancy rate and above inflation rental growth in selected segments and geographies. Current volumes of building plans passed is at only 63% of levels recorded at the top of the cycle when viewed on a 12 month rolling basis. Building plan completions have also come under pressure with completions now at 69% of peak levels. Completions as a percentage of plans passed was recorded at 36% as at January (on a 12 month moving average basis). Bear in mind, industrial buildings currently scheduled for completion could have had their plans passed at least a year ago. Apart from a general contraction in demand for new, purpose built industrial space it could also mean delays in larger, tenant driven schemes. 5
6 PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT With the exception of High Tech Industrial property, all other segments saw occupancy rates come under pressure during the 12 months. Light manufacturing, warehousing and standard units all saw vacancy rates increase by around 400bps on the year before. This suggests that the weak manufacturing data & currency depreciation of the past year or two is now filtering through to property fundamentals. High tech industrial property only recorded a 30bp increase in vacancy rate to 0.7%. As was the case in 2015, the High tech industrial segment still seems to be in a bit of sweet spot where demand is seemingly quite strong and supply is hampered by a shortage of industrial land and electricity/zoning difficulties. The latest vacancy increase suggests that the industrial market is entering a phase of excess supply as the sector s aggregate vacancy rate is now above its long term average. While the level of building plan completions is still significantly off the highs of 2008, the excess market demand for industrial space has seemingly all been mopped up. 6
7 PERFORMANCE BY BOX SIZE Analysing industrial property by box size reveals that there is currently more space available on the upper end of the size scale. Industrial property with gross lettable area of larger than 25k sqm had a vacancy rate of 6.5% as at December 2016 while those with a GLA ranging between 10k sqm and 25k sqm reported 7.4% of GLA being unoccupied. The larger box-size segments (10k-25k sqm and 25k sqm+) also recorded the largest increases in vacancy rate over the twelve months. Industrial properties with a gross lettable area of 10k-25k sqm experienced a 540bp increase while properties larger than 25k sqm saw vacancy rates increase by 360bps. The larger-box segments has consistently had the lowest vacancy rate through the cycle which suggests that occupiers may currently be downsizing their space requirements or splitting up different industrial operations in order to increase capacity utilisation. This trend may continue since overall industrial capacity utilisation is currently at 81.5% - well off the highs of 2006/07. This argument is backed up by the 300bp improvement in vacancy rate in the 2.5k-5k sqm segment an improvement which led to a strong 9.1% base rental growth. 7
8 NODAL PERFORMANCE SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE ON NODAL LEVEL While the aggregate industrial vacancy rate remains low in historical terms at 5.8% there is significant variance between nodes illustrated below. Some nodes currently offer virtually zero available space & in most cases, these nodes are also seeing improvements in rental growth momentum. Meanwhile there are others with vacancy rates in excess of 6%. Rental growth in these nodes are mostly sluggish and in some cases slipping to levels below its 3 year average. Active asset management with a focus on nodal selection as well as segmental and geographic diversification remain key during this phase of the property cycle - where it seems tenants are increasingly adopting a waitand-see approach. The graphic below emphasises this point as the major industrial nodes are virtually evenly split in their current position in vacancy cycle. Almost as many nodes are either seeing vacancy rates Improving, Slipping, Bottoming out or becoming sluggish or sticky relative to 3 year average. 8
9 NODAL PERFORMANCE Analysing basic rental growth on a nodal level reveals a similar pattern to that of vacancy rates. Some nodes are seeing very strong growth while other nodes are seeing rentals come under pressure either as a result of vacancy rates increasing or negative rental reversions in the interests of retaining existing tenants. Categorising nodes into four quadrants according to their 1 year and 3 year rental growth rates reveal that rental growth in the majority of nodes can be said to be currently peaking or slipping. Some nodes have seen rental growth become sluggish & remain at levels at or below their 3 year annualised growth. Among these nodes are Linbro Park and Boksburg/Anderbolt. These nodes have also seen vacancy rates slipping/peaking adding further proof to the notion that rental growth tends to lag vacancy rate moves. Midrand, Pinetown and Umbilo count among the nodes where the one year rental growth figure to June has slipped below the three year trendline. Johannesburg s West Rand and the Spartan node, meanwhile, are among the areas seeing an improvement in rental growth momentum as their one year rental growth surpasses their low three year rental growth rates. Midrand and Cape Town s Northern Suburbs count among the nodes where rental growth may be peaking given that the latest year on year rental growth exceeds the three year annualised rate. 9
10 NODAL PERFORMANCE Given where the industrial sector finds itself in the property cycle and the variance between individual nodes with regards to vacancy levels it s worth looking at a slightly longer time period. The map below shows 5 year average vacancy levels for individual industrial nodes in the Johannesburg, Cape Town and ethekwini metro area. Industrial property in the two major coastal markets are known to be underpinned by limited supply of quality stock. Most new developments are currently tenant driven with speculative activity suppressed given the low growth economic environment. While 5-year occupancy levels in institutionally owned industrial property in the Western Cape and KZN is low across the board this is not the case in Gauteng where a wide variance is observed in the underlying nodes. This suggests that occupiers of industrial property are preferring certain nodes above others. This could be for a variety of reasons access to main arterial routes, proximity to airport etc. However, the spread of underperforming nodes such as Strijdom Park, City Deep & Booysens suggests that the Gauteng etoll routes may have had a direct impact on occupancy trends in these peripheral nodes. The Linbro Park node has also seen its overall vacancy rate increase as some large occupiers have seemingly chosen not to renew leases. The major nodes around the airport meanwhile maintains their low vacancy rates highlighting the value of proximity to ports in an environment where transport costs are increasing faster than inflation. 10
11 SAMPLE COMPOSITION AS AT DECEMBER
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