Research Update: The Currency Exchange Fund N.V. (TCX) Outlook Revised To Negative From Stable; 'A-/A-2' Ratings Affirmed.
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1 February 23, 2010 Research Update: The Currency Exchange Fund N.V. (TCX) Outlook Revised To Negative From Stable; 'A-/A-2' Ratings Affirmed Primary Credit Analyst: Maria J Redondo, London (44) ;maria_redondo@standardandpoors.com Secondary Credit Analysts: Christian Esters, CFA, Frankfurt (49) ;christian_esters@standardandpoors.com Claire Curtin, London (44) ;claire_curtin@standardandpoors.com Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Related Research Ratings List 1
2 Research Update: The Currency Exchange Fund N.V. (TCX) Outlook Revised To Negative From Stable; 'A-/A-2' Ratings Affirmed Overview We are revising the outlook on The Currency Exchange Fund N.V. (TCX) to negative from stable. The negative outlook reflects our concerns that TCX's business volumes are below expectations, which we believe could result in TCX becoming of lower importance to its shareholders in the medium term. We are affirming the 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term issuer credit ratings on TCX, which are unaffected by the ownership transfer of TCX Investment Management Company B.V., TCX's manager. We believe the likelihood of extraordinary financial support from TCX's dominant shareholders, including FMO and KfW, remains "high". TCX's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) remains 'BBB-'. Rating Action On Feb. 23, 2010, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on The Currency Exchange Fund N.V. (TCX) to negative from stable, and affirmed its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term issuer credit ratings. The ratings are unaffected by the sale of Nederlandse Financierings-Maatschappij voor Ontwikkelingslanden N.V.'s (FMO; AAA/Stable/A-1+) 100%-stake in TCX Investment Management Company B.V. (TCX IMC) (not rated). FMO is one of TCX's major shareholders. Rationale The outlook revision reflects our concerns about TCX's low business volume with shareholders. It is our view that protracted low transactional volumes could undermine TCX's purpose by jeopardizing its business model and by weakening shareholders' support. TCX's financial position has improved in 2009, with TCX posting a $73 million profit, following a $65 million loss in Transactions contracted with shareholders--which are at the core of its mandate--remain subdued, however, and far below our expectations. The nominal value of transactions concluded with shareholders amounted to $101 million in 2009, a low amount compared to 2008 and far below TCX's own expectations. We understand that market conditions in 2009 did not favour local currency financing, nor did difficulties faced by financial institutions in frontier markets. However, we believe that such subdued business volumes create a challenge for TCX to prove that its business model works, in order to attract investors and counterparties and achieve the benefits of Standard & Poor s RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal February 23,
3 Research Update: The Currency Exchange Fund N.V. (TCX) Outlook Revised To Negative From Stable; 'A-/A-2' Ratings Affirmed diversification. Failure to achieve this could lead to eroding shareholders' support. In our view, new products and a broader client base would boost business volumes and, provided TCX's risk management policies remain in place, reduce concentration risks. The affirmation of the ratings on TCX follows TCX's shareholders' approval on Feb. 12, 2010, for a transfer of FMO's 100%-stake in TCX IMC to Cardano Development B.V. (not rated), a subsidiary of Cardano Holding B.V. (not rated)--which also owns Cardano Risk Management B.V. (not rated), TCX's risk manager. We believe that the sale of TCX's management company does not imply a reduced likelihood of extraordinary support by FMO or by any other shareholder, which under our criteria we view as "high", based on our assessment of the "important" role of TCX for its dominant owners and its "very strong" link (see Related Research below). The dominant owners include FMO, KfW (AAA/Stable/A-1+) (including Deutsche Investitions- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft; DEG), and The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD, AAA/Stable/A-1+), each of which holds a 16.71% stake. We understand that FMO's disinvestment is driven by its wish to avoid potential conflicts of interest resulting from its role as client and shareholder of TCX, and owner of TCX's management company. FMO's share in TCX remains unchanged, and FMO will continue to provide a US$150 million back-stop guarantee to TCX. In addition, we expect that FMO will remain the largest client of TCX. As the initiator of TCX, FMO's commitment remains critical, especially in the short term, to avoid early equity redemptions by other shareholders--although redemptions are subject to yearly limits. Redeemable capital and two subordinated convertible loans granted by the Dutch government and KfW stood at $537 million as of end-2009, and the notional size of the swap portfolio was $635 million. In our view, the sale of TCX IMC does not have any impact on TCX's stand-alone credit profile, which we currently assess at 'BBB-' on the basis of TCX's strong capital base and sound liquidity levels. In our view, these factors go some way to offsetting the significant market risk inherent in its activities. The ownership transfer of TCX IMC also does not impact the business or financial profiles under the current governance set-up, whereby TCX's shareholders maintain control of TCX's strategy and operations through TCX's supervisory board. Outlook The negative outlook reflects our concern that TCX's business volumes remain subdued and below expectations, and indicates that downward pressure on the rating exceeds upward pressure over a two-year period. Although we view shareholders' commitment to TCX as high, this support could wane if TCX's business model does not prove its viability. The ratings could stabilize if TCX's business and financial profiles improve significantly on the basis of a larger and more diversified portfolio in terms of products, which we believe would ensure that TCX was continuing to play an important role for its shareholders. 3
4 Research Update: The Currency Exchange Fund N.V. (TCX) Outlook Revised To Negative From Stable; 'A-/A-2' Ratings Affirmed Related Research Enhanced Methodology And Assumptions For Rating Government-Related Entities, June 29, 2009 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action To The Currency Exchange Fund N.V. (TCX) Issuer credit ratings A-/Negative/A-2 From A-/Stable/A-2 Additional Contact: Sovereign Complete ratings information is available to RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal subscribers at and RatingsDirect subscribers at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow (7) Standard & Poor s RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal February 23,
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More informationBNP Paribas 'A+/A-1' Ratings Affirmed, Off Watch; Outlook Negative; Subordinated Debt Rating Lowered
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Research Update: Swedish District Heating Company Fortum Varme Holding samagt med Stockholms stad Rated Primary Credit Analyst: Alf Stenqvist, Stockholm (46) 8-440-5925; alf.stenqvist@standardandpoors.com
More informationTemasek Holdings 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed On Close Government Ties; Outlook Stable
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More informationVolkswagen Financial Services Outlook To Stable, 'BBB+' Ratings Affirmed; VW Bank Ratings Affirmed, Outlook Negative
Research Update: Volkswagen Financial Services Outlook To Stable, 'BBB+' Ratings Affirmed; VW Bank Ratings Affirmed, Outlook Negative Primary Credit Analyst: Harm Semder, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-158;
More informationPetroleos Mexicanos, Its Subsidiaries, And Comision Federal de Electricidad Outlooks Revised To Stable From Negative
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More informationEuropean Investment Fund Ratings Affirmed At 'AAA/A-1+'; Outlook Stable
Research Update: European Investment Fund Ratings Affirmed At 'AAA/A-1+'; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Alexander Ekbom, Stockholm (46) 8-440-5911; alexander.ekbom@spglobal.com Secondary Contact:
More informationDelta Lloyd Operating Entities Upgraded To 'A' On Integration Into And Core Status To NN Group; Outlook Stable
Research Update: Delta Lloyd Operating Entities Upgraded To 'A' On Integration Into And Core Status To NN Group; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Marc-Philippe Juilliard, Paris +(33) 1-4075-2510;
More informationBanca Popolare dell'alto Adige Outlook Revised To Positive From Stable; 'BB/B' Ratings Affirmed
Research Update: Banca Popolare dell'alto Adige Outlook Revised To Positive From Stable; 'BB/B' Ratings Affirmed Primary Credit Analyst: Letizia Conversano, Milan (39) 02-72111-283; letizia.conversano@spglobal.com
More informationBasler Kantonalbank Long-Term Ratings Lowered To 'AA' Due To Remaining Legal And Reputational Risks; Outlook Stable
Research Update: Basler Kantonalbank Long-Term Ratings Lowered To 'AA' Due To Remaining Legal And Reputational Risks; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Dirk Heise, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-163; dirk.heise@standardandpoors.com
More informationDLR Kredit A/S Affirmed At 'A-/A-2'; Outlook Stable
Research Update: DLR Kredit A/S Affirmed At 'A-/A-2'; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Pierre-Brice Hellsing, Stockholm +46 (0)8 440 59 06; Pierre-Brice.Hellsing@spglobal.com Secondary Contact: Sean
More informationSpain-Based Bankia Ratings Affirmed At 'BBB-/A-3' Following Merger Announcement; Outlook Still Positive
Research Update: Spain-Based Bankia Ratings Affirmed At 'BBB-/A-3' Following Merger Announcement; Outlook Still Positive Primary Credit Analyst: Antonio Rizzo, Madrid (34) 91-788-7205; Antonio.Rizzo@spglobal.com
More informationAustrian Export Credit Agency Oesterreichische Kontrollbank 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
Research Update: Austrian Export Credit Agency Oesterreichische Kontrollbank 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Alois Strasser, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-240; alois.strasser@spglobal.com
More informationFortum Oyj 'BBB+/A-2' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Possible Adverse Impacts Of Planned Uniper Acquisition
Research Update: Fortum Oyj 'BBB+/A-2' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Possible Adverse Impacts Of Planned Uniper Acquisition Primary Credit Analyst: Lovisa E Forsloef, Stockholm (46) 8-440-5908;
More informationAXA Insurance Group 'AA-' Ratings Affirmed After Announcement Of IPO Of U.S. Subsidiaries; Outlook Stable
Research Update: AXA Insurance Group 'AA-' Ratings Affirmed After Announcement Of IPO Of U.S. Subsidiaries; Primary Credit Analyst: Taos D Fudji, Milan (39) 02-72111-276; taos.fudji@spglobal.com Secondary
More informationLuxembourg-Based Investment HoldCo JAB 'BBB+' Rating On Watch Positive On Expected Improved Portfolio Characteristics
Research Update: Luxembourg-Based Investment HoldCo JAB 'BBB+' Rating On Watch Positive On Expected Improved Portfolio Characteristics Primary Credit Analyst: Vittoria Ferraris, Milan (39) 02-72111-207;
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September 20, 2010 Research Update: European Financial Stability Facility Rated 'AAA' On Sovereign Guarantees And Cash Buffer; Primary Credit Analyst: Moritz Kraemer, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-99-9249;moritz_kraemer@standardandpoors.com
More informationCore Entities Of German Insurance Group W&W Affirmed At 'A-'; Outlook Stable
Research Update: Core Entities Of German Insurance Group W&W Affirmed At 'A-'; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analysts: Volker Kudszus, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-192; volker.kudszus@spglobal.com Benjamin
More informationInteractive Brokers LLC
Summary: Interactive Brokers LLC Primary Credit Analyst: Clayton D Montgomery, New York (1) 212-438-5079; clayton.montgomery@spglobal.com Secondary Contact: Robert B Hoban, New York (1) 212-438-7385; robert.hoban@spglobal.com
More informationGermany-Based Specialty Insurer Inter Hannover Downgraded To 'A+' On Change Of Group Structure; Outlook Stable
Research Update: Germany-Based Specialty Insurer Inter Hannover Downgraded To 'A+' On Change Of Group Structure; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Jean Paul Huby Klein, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-198;
More informationFive Colombian Corporate And Infrastructure Companies Downgraded To 'BBB-' From 'BBB' On Same Action On The Sovereign
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More informationAXA China Region Insurance Co. (Bermuda) Ltd. And AXA China Region Insurance Co. Ltd. Rated 'AA-'; Outlook Stable
Research Update: AXA China Region Insurance Co. (Bermuda) Ltd. And AXA China Region Insurance Co. Ltd. Rated 'AA-'; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Michael J Vine, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2013; Michael.Vine@spglobal.com
More informationRatings Affirmed On All Members Of The German Cooperative Banking Sector; Outlook Stable
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More informationSouth Africa-Based Capitec Bank Ltd. Assigned 'BB+/B' And 'zaa/zaa-1' Ratings; Outlook Stable
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More informationDanish Telecom Operator TDC A/S Downgraded To 'B+/B' On Completion Of Leveraged Buyout; Outlook Stable
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More informationNetherlands-Based ING Bank Outlook Revised To Stable On Strengthening Capital; 'A/A-1' Ratings Affirmed
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More informationVarious Rating Actions On Three Deutsche Postbank Covered Bond Programs; Ratings Then Withdrawn At The Bank's Request
Various Rating Actions On Three Deutsche Postbank Covered Bond Programs; Ratings Then Withdrawn At The Primary Credit Analyst: Ioan Isopel, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-306; ioan_isopel@standardandpoors.com
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