Universal Credit Core Deck. October 2013

Transcription

1 Universal Credit Core Deck October

2 Universal Credit overview Universal Credit replaces six in work and out of work benefits. Universal Credit requires claimants to accept a Claimant Commitment. This sets out what is expected in return for receiving assistance, taking into account personal circumstances and capability to earn. Claimants will be able to apply for their benefits online. Nearly 80 per cent of benefit claimants already use the internet. Telephone and other support services available if needed. A single payment will be made to a household rather than an individual. This will include housing costs. It will be paid monthly, in arrears. Designed to make work pay. As claimants earn more money, financial support will be withdrawn at a slower rate than is the case under the current system. Real Time information (RTI) link with HMRC will facilitate this. Local support will be available to help claimants where appropriate. This will be provided through DWP and local authority delivery partnerships. 2

3 Key Dates - overview Autumn UC local authority led pilots began as part of UC testing. April 2013 Pathfinder went live. December 2013 Local authority led pilots complete Direct Payment Demonstration Projects complete January 2013 Learning the lessons early findings of Direct Payment Demonstration Projects Report available. July 2013 Pathfinder expands October 2013 Progressive national roll out, and further testing begins Every eligible person claiming UC 3

4 Universal Credit - it s all about work Universal Credit will encourage a new type of relationship with claimants. Work Coaches will help claimants to become more independent by supporting them in their worksearch activities. They will help claimants plan and focus their jobsearch as well as set them actions that give them the best chance of finding work. Universal Credit aims to support jobseekers through the Claimant Commitment to raise their expectations of what they can achieve, and to encourage responsibility. Those who are fit and ready for work will be expected to look for a job on a full time basis dependent on circumstances. Universal Credit aims to make sure claimants are better off in work than on benefits. No 16 hour rule and no limits on the number of hours someone can work. UC payment only reduces gradually as their take home pay increases so claimants won t lose all their benefits at once if they are on a low income. Universal Credit claimants are expected to use Universal Jobmatch, an intelligent job matching service that helps employers to get the best fit for the jobs that they have on offer. 4

5 Universal Credit - roll out from October 2013 October to Spring 2014: Starting with Hammersmith in October, progressive national roll out of Universal Credit begins to a further 6 Jobcentres across England, Scotland & Wales, with offices taking new claims to Universal Credit: Hammersmith, Rugby, Inverness, Bath, Harrogate & Shotton. October to Spring 2014: Claimant Commitment rolling out nationally to around 100 Jobcentres a month for new claimants to Jobseekers Allowance, to support cultural transformation: 25,000 Jobcentre Plus advisers retrained to deliver Claimant Commitment From October: 11 in-work progression pilots being delivered. From October: Improved digital services rolling out nationally across Jobcentre Plus: 6,000 new computers will be installed across the country, helping claimants search and apply for jobs online, claim on-line benefits and improve their digital skills. 5

6 Claimant Commitment Claimant Commitment Individually tailored to take account of someone s circumstances Claimant Work Coach Outlines what a claimant must do in return for their benefit Claimant Create Accept Work Requirements Work Sets out clearly the consequences of not meeting Claimant Commitment Claimant Commitment reviewed on a regular basis 6

7 Universal Credit - development and testing Direct Payment Demonstration Projects Local authority led pilots Claimant Commitment Pathfinder Progressive National Roll-Out 7

8 Pathfinder Universal Credit Pathfinder Pathfinder is testing the new system with local authorities, employers and claimants in a live environment. It provides an opportunity to learn lessons before extending the service and bringing in more complex cases. Scope Pathfinder focuses on new single, unemployed people, with or without rented housing costs, in selected areas in Tameside, Wigan, Oldham and Warrington local authority areas. It started with Ashton-under-Lyne on 29 April. Wigan joined on 1 July, Oldham and Warrington started on 29 July. 8

9 Pathfinder update (1) All Pathfinder locations of Ashton-under-Lyne, Wigan, Warrington and Oldham are now taking claims to Universal Credit. The majority of claims from Universal Credit claimants in all 4 Pathfinder locations have been made online. Already seeing people moving into work as you would expect with this claimant group. Claimants making use of services provided by local authorities Internet Access Devices support to make a Universal Credit claim on line Personal Budgeting Support Process in place to make alternative payments to vulnerable claimants, including: split payment managed payment, i.e. landlord paid housing costs more frequent payment period, i.e. fortnightly 9

10 Pathfinder update (2) High rate of access to the Universal Credit service via the Universal Credit website. Universal Credit Service Centres in Bolton and Glasgow have been dealing with: claimant enquiries new claim action changes of circumstances Continuing to manage Universal Credit claims through our Operations Control Centre allowing us to improve practical details of the process. 10

11 Support for claimants Local Partners Local Area LA Services National Partners Support for claimants with complex needs Budgeting Work Online Housing Jobcentre Plus 11

12 Developing and testing our approach Direct Payment Demonstration Projects Identifying what interventions best help tenants and landlords e.g. different levels of arrears at which direct payment reverts back to landlords, ways of providing support to tenants and using a range of payment methods. Local authority led pilots Aim to explore approaches on how local expertise can support residents to claim Universal Credit, and so: a) Partnership working which is key area of work b) encourage people to access online support independently; c) improve their financial independence and how they manage their money; d) deliver efficiencies and reduce homelessness. 12 West Dunbarton North Lanarkshire Edinburgh Dumfries & Galloway Shropshire Birmingham Caerphilly Newport North Dorset Oldham Wigan Torfaen Wakefield West Lindsey Rushcliffe Melton Oxford Bath & NES Southwark Lewisham Key: UC LA led pilots Direct Payment Demonstration Projects

13 Key learnings to date: Direct Payment Demonstration Projects Early and clear communication is essential using a mix communication channels Direct Debits are not always the best payment method, tenants want to feel in control of their budget Accurate assessment of people s support needs is important, and the arrears trigger is used to balance the risk for tenants and landlords Local authority led pilots Understand and map local delivery partners and agree shared objectives, focussing on delivering a simple holistic service to meet the needs of the local population. There must be commitment to partnership working at all levels across the organisations, with open communication and regular review points to monitor projected demands. Understanding the partners resources, abilities, flexibilities and expectations is key as is allowing time to build trust. 13

14 Universal Credit lessons learned so far Stephen Finlay Research Director 17 October 2013

15 Some key questions What do the public think about the benefits system and welfare reforms? What have been the initial reactions of those affected? And how has the sector been preparing? 15

16 Public perceptions of the benefit system and welfare reforms 16

17 The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes 70% 60% Agree total 50% 55% 43% 40% 30% 20% 22% Disagree total 27% 10% 0%

18 A strong sense that the benefits system is important, but needs refining Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that % disagree % agree it is important to have a benefits system to provide a safety net for anyone who needs it? the benefits system is working effectively at present in Britain? there are some groups of people who claim benefits who should have their benefits cut? politicians need to do more to reduce the amount of money paid out in benefits? benefit payments for unemployed people are too high and discourage them from finding jobs Base: 2,017 GB adults (online), June Source: Ipsos MORI/DWP

19 Public sentiment on the generosity of the benefits system is high Q. Generally speaking, do you think the benefits system in Britain is too generous, not generous enough, or gets the balance about right? Don t know 14 Not generous enough 20 % 50 Too generous 16 Gets the balance about right Base: 2,017 GB adults Source: Ipsos MORI/DWP

20 Welfare sentiments among the public are perhaps understandable Q. Now thinking about the next 12 months, how concerned, if at all, are you about your household having enough income to cover living costs and bills? % Not at all concerned % Not very concerned % Fairly concerned % Very concerned l renters % e renters % r occupiers % Base: 2,016 GB adults 16-75, March 2013 (313 social renters, 289 private renters and 1,384 owner/occupiers) 20 Source: Ipsos MORI/Halifax

21 And compounded by increasing recognition of a housing crisis There is a housing crisis in Britain 80% Agree 18% Disagree Source: Evening Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, Standard/Ipsos January MORI

22 Driven principally by supply and affordability concerns, but not welfare reforms Q. Overall, which two or three, if any, of the following do you see as the biggest problems facing the housing market in Britain today? Lack of affordable homes House prices too high Banks not giving out mortgages Lack of council housing Upfront costs eg. deposit, stamp duty etc. Rents too high Housing benefit changes/ bedroom tax Too many people owning second homes Lack of space to build homes Big homes being occupied by one or two people Planning restrictions Inheritance tax is too high Other None Don t know Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/JRRT 22

23 Strong agreement among the public that social renters should move if they have a home larger than they need Q. For each of these statements please tell me whether you agree or disagree that people who live in social housing should be prepared to move to a smaller property if they can no longer afford the rent for their current accommodation? % agree 68 % disagree 11 their accommodation is larger than they need? they are claiming housing benefit and are living in an expensive area? they can afford rent in the private sector? their landlord needs their current accommodation for someone else they think has a greater need? Base: 1,001 GB adults 16-75, May Source: Ipsos MORI

24 Although sentiments softens for those directly affected Q. For each of these statements please tell me whether you agree or disagree that people who live in social housing should be prepared to move to a smaller property if they can no longer afford the rent for their current accommodation? % agree 57 % disagree 14 their accommodation is larger than they need? they are claiming housing benefit and are living in an expensive area? they can afford rent in the private sector? their landlord needs their current accommodation for someone else they think has a greater need? Base: 167 social renters among 1,001 GB adults 16-75, May Source: Ipsos MORI

25 Awareness of recent reforms is high, especially Bedroom Tax As you may know, one of the changes the Government is introducing will mean capping the total amount of benefits that any working age household with no-one in work can receive a year/ is reducing the amount of housing benefit that those living in social housing receive if they have more bedrooms than they need. Before starting to complete this survey how much, if anything, did you know about this change? Benefits cap 71% 6% 23% 42% 18% 8% 2% A great deal A fair amount Just a little Heard of, know nothing about Never heard of Don t know 13% 36% 39% 9% 2% 1% Bedroom Tax 88% Base: 2,017 GB adults Source: Ipsos

26 A strong brand? Identify white space 26

27 And stronger in principle support for the benefit cap than for the Bedroom Tax Q. In principle do you support or oppose..? 50% Support the amount of housing benefit being reduced for those living in social housing if they have more bedrooms than they need capping the total amount of benefits that any household can receive a year? 74% Support 30% oppose 12% oppose 27

28 Reasonable responses to the reforms work yes, moving less so Q. For each of these, please indicate whether you think households affected by the cap/ RSRS should or should not be prepared to Benefits cap Bedroom Tax find ways of reducing their living costs & bills +71 should +62 should find new or alternative work or ork more hours +58 should +49 should to a cheaper property +48 should move to a smaller property in the same area +52 should e to a similar size property eaper area +26 should move to a smaller property even if means moving to a different area +3 should 28 Base: 2,017 Universal GB adults Credit Core (online), Deck June v3 October Source: Ipsos MORI/DWP

29 And what of those affected by the reforms 29

30 Initial reactions of those affected Strong sense of anxiety and unease Managing finances Barriers to moving Because I ve got a spare room I ve got to pay for that like ten, eleven pound a week. That really has spun my head because I don t know how I m going to cope. I m struggling at the minute gas and electric and stuff like that. 30 There is not enough housing stock to accommodate the amount of people they need to move out

31 Viridian Case Study: Typologies of those affected Financial Resilience: strength of income levels, support, or assets Can manage to pay bedroom tax and unlikely to default Cannot manage to pay bedroom tax and likely to default Older single people Support networks likely to be adult children No arrears and debt-averse Bedroom tax is low (single bedroom) Full HB claimants, typically with children in household Arrears or other debts Competing household priorities (children/ debt) Not working and far from the labour market Bedroom tax may be high (two bedrooms) In paid work No arrears and debtaverse Bedroom tax is small proportion of rent (single bedroom; HB lower as in work) Single people claiming benefits as only income Typically have a disability Not working; likely to be claiming ESA and/ or DLA Financial Capability: financial management skills, and knowledge and awareness of householdlevel impact of changes 31

32 Viridian Case Study: Typologies of those affected Ready to move Short-term stay and pay Long-term stay and pay Will move now with support Will move in time Unlikely to move Have moved before recently; not emotionally attached to home Parent/ children s lifestage means move is suitable Aware that staying and paying unsustainable Reforms a catalyst for move Waiting for change in parent/ child s lifestage for move to be suitable A time-sensitive emotional tie to the home/ area Do not understand for how long it will be sustainable to stay and pay Looking for work Very strong practical and emotional ties to home/ area Likely to be service-dependent Likely to have grandchildren Place high importance on familiarity of environment hence likely to be disabled or have disabled child Likely not to have moved recently or at all 32

33 Viridian Case Study: Interventions to meet different needs of those affected Communication MOVERS STAY & PAY Support to find suitable home, transfer system Incentives for cost of moving Good quality, decent standard One to one support to bolster financial capability/ resilience Personal briefings of reform impacts Reward vouchers, rent holidays Reputation & Trust 33

34 The sector view: Challenges and responses 34

35 The introduction of welfare reforms has perhaps galvanized debates across the sector on purpose and objectives The sector is debating its purpose and objectives HA#1 housing needs only, development & pushing into PRS HA#2 non-housing needs (back-towork), downscaling building ambitions The relationship between housing associations and their tenants is at a crossroads 35 Source: Smith Institute Social hearted, commercially minded April 2013

36 Welfare reforms anticipated to be a big challenge to HA businesses prior to implementation Q How likely, if at all, do you think the following are to occur because of the introduction of the size criteria? Very likely Fairly likely Not very likely Not at all likely Don't know % Increased difficulty in rent collection A rise in the level of arrears very/ 90% fairly likely 90% A fall in your total rental income % A change in allocations policy (eg prioritising under-occupiers wishing to % A change in allocations policy relating to the size criteria for working age % A change in allocations policy relating to the size criteria for working age % Re-classification of a significant number of properties to a smaller number of % Base: All valid responses (210) RSLs 36 Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012

37 An expectation for most that rent arrears will increase, and dramatically Q Do you expect your rent arrears to increase, decrease or stay the same following the introduction of welfare reforms? Q By what percentage do you expect your rent arrears to increase? Stay the same Increase Decrease 16% 84% 0% Don t know 25% 21% Under 25% Average % increase: 51% 12% 25% - 49% 100% + 15% 5% 22% Base: All valid responses (232 & 211) 37 75% - 99% 50% - 74% Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012

38 Anticipated impact on evictions from welfare reform measures Q How likely, if at all, do you think the following are to occur because of the introduction of the size criteria/ household benefit cap/ direct payment to tenants? - A rise in the number of evictions due to arrears Direct payment of benefit to tenants Very likely Fairly likely Not very likely Not at all likely Don't know % very/ 77% fairly likely Size criteria % Household benefit cap % Base: All valid responses (210) 38 Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012

39 And some development activity potentially dampened? Q If you are a delivery partner, to what extent do you think the following will make it harder to deliver your commitments under the Affordable Homes Programme? Introduction of size criteria Don t know 14% A great deal 5% A fair amount 21% Not at all 19% % great deal/ fair amount 26% 41% Not very much Base: All valid responses who are a delivery partner (143) 39 Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012

40 But also a sector that is responding to these challenges Q Which, if any, of these changes is your organisation making or planning to make as a result of welfare reform? Base: All valid responses (232) 40 Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012

41 Despite concerns for what is still to come in the future Q Overall, to what extent if at all do you think your organisation will be affected by the following...? % A great deal % A fair amount % Not very much % Not at all % Don't know % great deal/ fair amount Introduction of direct payments to tenants % Introduction of size criteria % Introduction of benefit/ welfare cap % Base: All valid responses (232) 41 Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012

42 In addition to challenges in other areas too The digital divide The banking divide? -16% % All (GB) SRS 30% HB tenants with no bank account with DD facility Jul Nov % Don t know Source: Ipsos MORI Tech Tracker 42

43 To summarise 43

44 Summary Most significant reforms of a generation Public recognise need for change, plurality support for current reforms Presents significant challenges for tenants and landlords alike Some early indicators of impact are: Increased investment in support and comms Arrears and evictions a key focus Increasing pressure on smaller stock Affected tenant responses influenced by information, financial capability and attitudes to moving Programme of research ongoing, and we need your help 44

45 Thank you Stephen Finlay Ipsos MORI, Social Research Institute 45

46 Universal Credit lessons learned so far Stephen Finlay Research Director 17 October 2013

47 Some key questions What do the public think about the benefits system and welfare reforms? What have been the initial reactions of those affected? And how has the sector been preparing? Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

48 Public perceptions of the benefit system and welfare reforms Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

49 The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes 70% 60% Agree total 50% 55% 43% 40% 30% 20% 22% Disagree total 27% 10% 0% Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

50 A strong sense that the benefits system is important, but needs refining Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that % disagree % agree it is important to have a benefits system to provide a safety net for anyone who needs it? the benefits system is working effectively at present in Britain? there are some groups of people who claim benefits who should have their benefits cut? politicians need to do more to reduce the amount of money paid out in benefits? benefit payments for unemployed people are too high and discourage them from finding jobs Base: 2,017 GB adults (online), June 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/DWP Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

51 Public sentiment on the generosity of the benefits system is high Q. Generally speaking, do you think the benefits system in Britain is too generous, not generous enough, or gets the balance about right? Don t know 14 Not generous enough 20 % 50 Too generous 16 Gets the balance about right Base: 2,017 GB adults (online), June 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/DWP Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

52 Welfare sentiments among the public are perhaps understandable Q. Now thinking about the next 12 months, how concerned, if at all, are you about your household having enough income to cover living costs and bills? % Not at all concerned % Not very concerned % Fairly concerned % Very concerned Social renters % Private renters % Owner occupiers % Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public Base: 2,016 GB adults 16-75, March 2013 (313 social renters, 289 private renters and 1,384 owner/occupiers) Source: Ipsos MORI/Halifax

53 And compounded by increasing recognition of a housing crisis There is a housing crisis in Britain 80% Agree 18% Disagree Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, January 2013 Source: Evening Standard/Ipsos MORI

54 Driven principally by supply and affordability concerns, but not welfare reforms Q. Overall, which two or three, if any, of the following do you see as the biggest problems facing the housing market in Britain today? Lack of affordable homes House prices too high Banks not giving out mortgages Lack of council housing Upfront costs eg. deposit, stamp duty etc. Rents too high Housing benefit changes/ bedroom tax Too many people owning second homes Lack of space to build homes Big homes being occupied by one or two people Planning restrictions Inheritance tax is too high Other None Don t know Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/JRRT Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

55 Strong agreement among the public that social renters should move if they have a home larger than they need Q. For each of these statements please tell me whether you agree or disagree that people who live in social housing should be prepared to move to a smaller property if they can no longer afford the rent for their current accommodation? % agree 68 % disagree 11 their accommodation is larger than they need? they are claiming housing benefit and are living in an expensive area? they can afford rent in the private sector? their landlord needs their current accommodation for someone else they think has a greater need? Base: 1,001 GB adults 16-75, May 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

56 Although sentiments softens for those directly affected Q. For each of these statements please tell me whether you agree or disagree that people who live in social housing should be prepared to move to a smaller property if they can no longer afford the rent for their current accommodation? % agree 57 % disagree 14 their accommodation is larger than they need? they are claiming housing benefit and are living in an expensive area? they can afford rent in the private sector? their landlord needs their current accommodation for someone else they think has a greater need? Base: 167 social renters among 1,001 GB adults 16-75, May 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

57 Awareness of recent reforms is high, especially Bedroom Tax As you may know, one of the changes the Government is introducing will mean capping the total amount of benefits that any working age household with no-one in work can receive a year/ is reducing the amount of housing benefit that those living in social housing receive if they have more bedrooms than they need. Before starting to complete this survey how much, if anything, did you know about this change? Benefits cap 71% 6% 23% 42% 18% 8% 2% A great deal A fair amount Just a little Heard of, know nothing about Never heard of Don t know 13% 36% 39% 9% 2% 1% Bedroom Tax 88% Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public Base: 2,017 GB adults (online), June 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/DWP

58 A strong brand? Identify white space Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

59 And stronger in principle support for the benefit cap than for the Bedroom Tax Q. In principle do you support or oppose..? the amount of housing benefit being reduced for those living in social housing if they have more bedrooms than they need capping the total amount of benefits that any household can receive a year? 50% 74% Support Support 30% oppose 12% oppose Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public Base: 2,017 GB adults (online), June 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/DWP

60 Reasonable responses to the reforms work yes, moving less so Q. For each of these, please indicate whether you think households affected by the cap/ RSRS should or should not be prepared to find ways of reducing their living costs & bills Benefits cap +71 should Bedroom Tax +62 should find new or alternative work or work more hours +58 should +49 should move to a cheaper property +48 should move to a smaller property in the same area +52 should move to a similar size property in a cheaper area +26 should move to a smaller property even if means moving to a different area +3 should Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public Base: 2,017 GB adults (online), June 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/DWP

61 And what of those affected by the reforms Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

62 Initial reactions of those affected Strong sense of anxiety and unease Managing finances Barriers to moving Because I ve got a spare room I ve got to pay for that like ten, eleven pound a week. That really has spun my head because I don t know how I m going to cope. I m struggling at the minute gas and electric and stuff like that. There is not enough housing stock to accommodate the amount of people they need to move out Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

63 Viridian Case Study: Typologies of those affected Financial Resilience: strength of income levels, support, or assets Can manage to pay bedroom tax and unlikely to default Cannot manage to pay bedroom tax and likely to default Older single people Support networks likely to be adult children No arrears and debt-averse Bedroom tax is low (single bedroom) Full HB claimants, typically with children in household Arrears or other debts Competing household priorities (children/ debt) Not working and far from the labour market Bedroom tax may be high (two bedrooms) In paid work No arrears and debtaverse Bedroom tax is small proportion of rent (single bedroom; HB lower as in work) Single people claiming benefits as only income Typically have a disability Not working; likely to be claiming ESA and/ or DLA Financial Capability: financial management skills, and knowledge and awareness of householdlevel impact of changes Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

64 Viridian Case Study: Typologies of those affected Ready to move Short-term stay and pay Long-term stay and pay Will move now with support Will move in time Unlikely to move Have moved before recently; not emotionally attached to home Parent/ children s lifestage means move is suitable Aware that staying and paying unsustainable Reforms a catalyst for move Waiting for change in parent/ child s lifestage for move to be suitable A time-sensitive emotional tie to the home/ area Do not understand for how long it will be sustainable to stay and pay Looking for work Very strong practical and emotional ties to home/ area Likely to be service-dependent Likely to have grandchildren Place high importance on familiarity of environment hence likely to be disabled or have disabled child Likely not to have moved recently or at all Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

65 Viridian Case Study: Interventions to meet different needs of those affected Communication MOVERS STAY & PAY Support to find suitable home, transfer system One to one support to bolster financial capability/ resilience Incentives for cost of moving Good quality, decent standard Personal briefings of reform impacts Reward vouchers, rent holidays Reputation & Trust Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

66 The sector view: Challenges and responses Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

67 The introduction of welfare reforms has perhaps galvanized debates across the sector on purpose and objectives The sector is debating its purpose and objectives HA#1 housing needs only, development & pushing into PRS HA#2 non-housing needs (back-towork), downscaling building ambitions The relationship between housing associations and their tenants is at a crossroads Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public Source: Smith Institute Social hearted, commercially minded April 2013

68 Welfare reforms anticipated to be a big challenge to HA businesses prior to implementation Q How likely, if at all, do you think the following are to occur because of the introduction of the size criteria? Very likely Fairly likely Not very likely Not at all likely Don't know % very/ fairly likely Increased difficulty in rent collection % A rise in the level of arrears % A fall in your total rental income % A change in allocations policy (eg prioritising under-occupiers wishing to % A change in allocations policy relating to the size criteria for working age % A change in allocations policy relating to the size criteria for working age % Re-classification of a significant number of properties to a smaller number of % Base: All valid responses (210) RSLs Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012 Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

69 An expectation for most that rent arrears will increase, and dramatically Q Do you expect your rent arrears to increase, decrease or stay the same following the introduction of welfare reforms? Q By what percentage do you expect your rent arrears to increase? Stay the same Increase Decrease 16% 84% 0% Don t know 25% 21% Under 25% Average % increase: 51% 12% 25% - 49% 100% + 15% 5% 22% 75% - 99% 50% - 74% Base: All valid responses (232 & 211) Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012 Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

70 Anticipated impact on evictions from welfare reform measures Q How likely, if at all, do you think the following are to occur because of the introduction of the size criteria/ household benefit cap/ direct payment to tenants? - A rise in the number of evictions due to arrears Very likely Fairly likely Not very likely Not at all likely Don't know % very/ fairly likely Direct payment of benefit to tenants % Size criteria % Household benefit cap % Base: All valid responses (210) Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012 Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

71 And some development activity potentially dampened? Q If you are a delivery partner, to what extent do you think the following will make it harder to deliver your commitments under the Affordable Homes Programme? Introduction of size criteria Don t know 14% A great deal 5% A fair amount 21% Not at all 19% % great deal/ fair amount 26% 41% Not very much Base: All valid responses who are a delivery partner (143) Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012 Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

72 But also a sector that is responding to these challenges Q Which, if any, of these changes is your organisation making or planning to make as a result of welfare reform? Base: All valid responses (232) Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012 Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

73 Despite concerns for what is still to come in the future Q Overall, to what extent if at all do you think your organisation will be affected by the following...? % A great deal % A fair amount % Not very much % Not at all % Don't know % great deal/ fair amount Introduction of direct payments to tenants % Introduction of size criteria % Introduction of benefit/ welfare cap % Base: All valid responses (232) Source: Ipsos MORI for NHF 21 September 5 November 2012 Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

74 In addition to challenges in other areas too The digital divide The banking divide? -16% % All (GB) SRS 30% HB tenants with no bank account with DD facility Jul Nov % Don t know Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public Source: Ipsos MORI Tech Tracker

75 To summarise Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

76 Summary Most significant reforms of a generation Public recognise need for change, plurality support for current reforms Presents significant challenges for tenants and landlords alike Some early indicators of impact are: Increased investment in support and comms Arrears and evictions a key focus Increasing pressure on smaller stock Affected tenant responses influenced by information, financial capability and attitudes to moving Programme of research ongoing, and we need your help Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public

77 Thank you Stephen Finlay Ipsos MORI, Social Research Institute Ipsos MORI Version 1 Public