The Flowing Oil Chartbook March 1, 2017

Transcription

1 The Flowing Oil Chartbook March 1, 2017 RESEARCH ANALYSTS Jan Stuart Edward Westlake Research Analyst Research Analyst Johannes Van Der Tuin Jonathan Aronson Abraham Kahn Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Table of Contents The Big Picture The International Scene Oil Macro US Gulf Coast (USGC) Permian Mid Continent West Coast East Coast Technicals NGLs Other Including VMT, Rack Margins, & Fixtures 2

3 Headlines What s Moving Asia remains tight, but there s no real tightening in the US yet We would be more worried about the amount of time it s taking for America s imports to come down and the inventory declines to begin here, if it were not for the persistent strength of Asian markets On the crude oil side, the bellwether Dubai forward structure remains backwardated, which is a first for this time of year since early 2014 and a clear signal that Asia fundamentals are relatively strong. On p5 we selected the Dubai 1-2 spread as reported by PVM. And we think that this relative strength of the medium sour / heavy market segment also explains much of the unusually narrow Brent-Dubai spread, which tightened to less than ~$2/b recently (p. 5). In addition, relatively constructive Singapore refining margins (p. 11) also attest to fundamental support in Asia, which is where in our view the Opec cuts have had their first impact. In the Atlantic Basin the key Brent 1-6 contango remains on a broad narrowing trend (p. 5) despite a few wobbles in the nearby spread in the days before yesterday s April expiry. We would have liked to have seen a firmer (or firming) physical market for North Sea and West African exports at this stage, but it appears as if the timing of EU refiner maintenance and a blip up in availabilities of Nigerian cargoes helped widen out the April discount to May in the last few trading days of the contract. On the US side of the Atlantic, crude oil markets are still not out of the woods, as crude oil stocks rose moderately again last week, despite an upturn in refinery runs. In fact, crude oil inventories east of the Rocky Mountains rose by more than 3 Mbs relative to the +2 norm and downstream inventory did not decline and normally does, when refinery runs are still relatively low due to maintenance. There is some significant decline of imports into the Gulf Coast, but the aggregate of imports remains relatively high. In addition, the weekly data at least are suggesting that aggregate production of crude oil (ex NGLs) has begun to rise over year ago levels. Real stock draws should become apparent by mid-march, in our view (link). As the month turned, the EIA monthlies cleared up some of the fog around the data for December, revealing, no surprise, strong ~2% yoy oil demand growth in the US. Gasoline demand, the subject of much anxiety in January and February, ended last year on another high note (+2% to 9.31 mb/d in December), which represents an upward revision in percentage terms (vis a vis the weekly numbers) of 2%. For the second month in a row, the monthlies indicated much higher levels of demand than the weeklies did -- not just for gasoline, but also for the roughly 3.6 Mb/d other product category and with that for the total. December supply side data for the US surprised negatively (relative to our forecast) for the first time in what seems like years In the December PSM, US lower 48 onshore crude production fell ~140 kb/d mom, thanks mostly to inclement weather in Texas and North Dakota at the time. This we think is a blip down, not a trend; and was partly offset by another increase in Gulf of Mexico production (+47 kb/d mom). Combined with an even rarer downturn of NGLs production, however, the steady growth of total liquids supply in the US from the September trough, took a pronounced -330 kb/d mom detour in December, it seems. 3

4 Headlines What s Moving Refining Margins & Spreads Focusing in on US dynamics Refining Margins: Weekly average PADD 3 (LLS) margins were higher by.82/bbl last week to $10.93/bbl. Average PADD 5 (ANS) cracks were up by $1.63/bbl to $20.21/bbl. Average PADD 1 (Brent) margins narrowed to $7.4/bbl (down -7.7% or.61/bbl) and PADD 2 (WTI) cracks decreased by.89/bbl to $10.11/bbl. PADD 4 (WTI) cracks grew by $2.12/bbl to $24.07/bbl. Mid-Con Crude Spreads: The WTI-LLS narrowed this past week to -$1.71/bbl. A) Northern Mid-Con Diffs: LLS WCS diffs were down.45/bbl to $15.47/bbl, while Syncrude averaged a discount of.30/bbl vs LLS (as compared to a.76/bbl discount last week). LLS Bakken differentials narrowed to $2.76/bbl. B) Midland Diffs: The LLS Midland WTI spread averaged $2.33/bbl (up.81/bbl) while the average LLS-WTS spread widened by.45/bbl to $3.43/bbl. Gulf and West Coast Crude Spreads: The weekly Brent LLS widened, averaging.40/bbl. LLS MARS widened, averaging $4.04/bbl. The average LLS MAYA spread was around $9.54/bbl. The weekly average ANS KERN spread widened by.16/bbl from the previous week to $11.71/bbl. Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 4

5 Headlines Key Charts to Watch The week s outstanding new data Dubai 1-2 spread suggests Asia markets are in backwardation ($/b) Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Brent-Dubai spread narrows as Asia medium heavy markets tighten ($/b) Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Brent 1-6 contango, broadly narrowing trend but April expired weakly ($/b) $8 $6 $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$ Backwardation: Bullish Contango: Bearish J M J S N US inventory surplus to the avg still ain t behaving (mbs) other reported ex NGLs distillate gasoline crude total reported ex NGLs 0 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, PVM, EIA 5

6 The Big Picture

7 The Big Picture Brent Structure Brent and WTI flat price with shaded area for Bollinger Bands ($/b) $140 Brent Price Brent 200 mav WTI Price WTI 200 mav $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Brent futures curves ($/b) $75 $65 $55 $45 $35 $25 2/24/2016 1/24/2017 2/17/2017 2/24/ Brent structure differentials (1-6) ($/b) $8 $6 $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$ Backwardation: Bullish Contango: Bearish J M J S N Brent physical vs. spot futures ($/b) $ $1 -$2 -$3 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 7

8 The Big Picture WTI-Brent & Product Futures Curves WTI Brent futures curves ($/b) 2/24/2016 $1 1/24/2017 2/17/2017 2/24/2017 $- $(1) $(2) WTI futures curves ($/b) $75 $65 $55 $45 $35 2/24/2016 1/24/2017 2/17/2017 2/24/2017 $(3) $ ICE Gasoil futures curves ($/MT) 2/24/2016 1/24/2017 $750 2/17/2017 2/24/2017 $650 $550 $450 $350 RBOB futures curves ($/gal) $1.90 $ /24/2016 1/24/2017 2/17/2017 2/24/2017 $ Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 8

9 The Big Picture Key Crack Spreads from Around the US US Gulf Coast ($/b) (LLS based) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $ US Mid-Continent ($/b) (WTI based) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $ US East Coast ($/b) (Brent based) US West Coast ($/b) (ANS based) $ $ $60 $15 $50 $10 $40 $30 $5 $20 $10 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 9

10 The Big Picture Key Crack Spreads vs Forecasts US Gulf Coast ($/b) (LLS based) 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2016 $30 CS fcst 2017 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US Mid-Continent ($/b) (WTI based) 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2016 $60 CS fcst 2017 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US East Coast ($/b) (Brent based) 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2016 $25 CS fcst 2017 $20 $15 $10 $5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US West Coast ($/b) (ANS based) $60 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2016 CS fcst 2017 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 10

11 The Big Picture Key Crack Spreads vs Forecasts US Gulf Coast ($/b) (WTI based) US Rockies ($/b) (WTI based) $45 $35 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2016 CS fcst 2017 $55 $45 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2016 CS fcst 2017 $25 $35 $25 $15 $15 $5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SING ($/b) (Dubai Fateh based) NW Europe ($/b) (Brent based) $20 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2016 CS fcst 2017 $15 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2016 CS fcst 2017 $15 $10 $10 $5 $5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 11

12 The Big Picture US Refinery Runs US crude runs (Mb/d) 18 5 year average US crude inventories (Mbs) year average Total utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 100% 5 year average % 80% Total US CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) yr ave frcst 2017 actuals % 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 12

13 The Big Picture PADDs I-IV PADD I IV East of Rockies crude runs (Mb/d) 15 5 year average PADD I IV East of Rockies crude inventories (Mbs) year average PADDs I IV East of Rockies utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 100% 4 year average % 90% 85% PADD I IV East of Rockies CDU maintenance frcst (kb/d of capacity offline) yr ave frcst 2017 actuals % 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 13

14 The Big Picture US Inventories and Forward Cover US crude inventories (Mbs) year average PADD I IV East of Rockies crude inventories (Mbs) year average US crude days of forward cover 35 5 year average PADD I IV East of Rockies crude days of forward cover 40 5 year average Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 14

15 The Big Picture US Inventory Surplus & Product Detail US inventory surplus to the avg (Mbs) other reported ex NGLs distillate gasoline crude total reported ex NGLs 0 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 PADD I gasoline inventories (Mbs) 80 5 year average PADD III gasoline inventories (Mbs) PADD I middle distillate inventories (Mbs) year average year average Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 15

16 The Big Picture US Production and Imports US domestic crude production, weekly data (Mb/d) 10 5 year average exit rate 2017 PADD I IV East of Rockies domestic crude production, monthly data (Mb/d) 9 5 year average exit rate US crude oil imports (Mb/d) 12 5 year average PADD I IV East of Rockies crude oil imports (Mb/d) 10 5 year average Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 16

17 The Big Picture Transport Differentials Map Source: VLO 17

18 The Big Picture US Storage Capacity Shell crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) PADDs I II III IV V US Total In Operation Idle In Operation Idle In Operation Idle In Operation Idle In Operation Idle In Operation Idle Refineries 16, , ,650 2,192 4, ,924 2, ,852 6,244 Tank Farms (excluding SPR) 6, ,637 3, ,493 8,745 20, ,423 1, ,636 13,058 Of which at Cushing, OK , Tankers, Barges and Pipes na SPR (Crude only) , Total (excluding SPR): 23,539 1, ,314 3, ,143 10,937 25, ,347 3, ,821 19,302 Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) PADDs I II III IV V US Total Refineries 14,915 20,106 76,215 4,174 36, ,546 Of which is likely to be max fill in reality 12,640 18,508 59,573 3,561 30, ,974 Tank Farms (excluding SPR) 5, , ,038 16,502 28, ,662 Of which at Cushing, OK 73,014 73,014 Volumes in transit * ,000 SPR (Crude only) 727, ,000 Total (excluding SPR):** 22, , ,382 25,034 73, ,636 (*) Note: Volumes estimates based on March 4, 2015 note by EIA (**) Note: Total assumes a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number Crude Oil Stocks (thousands of barrels) PADDs 2/24/2017 I II III IV V US Total Standard EIA stock number 17, , ,591 24,400 50, ,184 Crude storage capacity utilization (thousands of barrels) 2/24/2017 I II PADDs III IV V US Total Standard EIA stock number 76% 85% 78% 97% 68% 79% "Head Room" PADD I - IV East of Rockies 111,138 2/24/2017 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA Total shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity * Current inventories "Head Room" till working capacity is full Three week average build # of weeks till full PADD I - IV "East of Rockies" (excluding SPR): 592, , , , ,138 3, (*) Note: has been adjusted to account for oil in transit as well as a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number 18

19 The Big Picture US Product Demand and Inventory US finished gasoline demand (Mb/d) US middle distillate demand (Mb/d) 10 5 year average year average US gasoline inventories (Mbs) US middle distillate inventories (Mbs) year average year average Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 19

20 The Big Picture QTD Spreads vs. CS Assumptions - WTI (Cushing) - WTS (Midland) QTD crude differentials are averaging $1.40/bbl,.90/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of.50/bbl - LLS - MAYA (Light - Heavy) QTD crude differentials are averaging $8.71/bbl,.46/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $8.25/bbl - Rockies (WTI based) QTD refining margins are averaging $20.55/bbl,.55/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $20.00/bbl - ANS - KERN QTD crude differentials are averaging $11.54/bbl,.42/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $11.12/bbl - LLS - WCS QTD crude differentials are averaging $15.47/bbl,.47/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $15.00/bbl - West Coast (ANS based) QTD refining margins are averaging $16.36/bbl,.64/bbl below Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $17.00/bbl - US Gulf Coast (LLS based) QTD refining margins are averaging $11.68/bbl,.68/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $11.00/bbl - Asia (Dubai based) QTD refining margins are averaging $10.86/bbl,.66/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $10.20/bbl - Northeast (Brent based) QTD refining margins are averaging $9.24/bbl,.74/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $8.50/bbl - Mid - Continent (WTI based) QTD refining margins are averaging $11.15/bbl,.15/bbl above Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $11.00/bbl - LLS - MARS (Medium - Sour) QTD crude differentials are averaging $4.01/bbl,.49/bbl below Credit Suisse's 1Q17 forecast of $4.50/bbl Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 20

21 The International Scene

22 The International Scene Crude Spreads WTI Brent spread ($/b) $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 -$10 -$12 -$ Brent Dubai ($/b) $ $6 $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$6 Brent Urals ($/b) $ $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $ Arab Light MARS ($/b) $ $2 $2 $1 $1 -$1 -$1 -$2 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 22

23 The International Scene Cracks (incl. PADD I & III) US East Coast ($/b) (Brent based) $20 $15 $10 $ NW Europe ($/b) (Brent based) $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $ SING ($/b) (Dubai Fateh based) US Gulf Coast ($/b) (LLS based) $ $ $14 $12 $25 $20 $15 $10 $10 $8 $5 $6 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 23

24 The International Scene CDU Outages Global reported CDU outages (Mb/d) World: ex-us, ex-fsu & ex-nwe reported CDU outages (Mb/d) NWE reported CDU outages (kb/d) 1, , FSU reported CDU outages (kb/d) 1, ,200 1, Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 24

25 The International Scene Secondary Unit Outages Global reported FCC outages (Mb/d) Global reported reformer outages (Mb/d) Global reported hydrotreating outages (Mb/d) Global reported hydrocracking outages (Mb/d) Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 25

26 The International Scene Refinery Runs OECD crude runs according to the IEA (Mb/d) Original EU 16 refinery runs (Mb/d) yr ave 2015 IEA Forecast Yr Average Japan crude runs (Mb/d) yr ave Global crude runs according to the IEA (Mb/d) 82 5 yr ave 2015 IEA Forecast Source: Credit Suisse Research, Euroil, PAJ, IEA 26

27 The International Scene Crude & Product Inventories Original EU 16 crude inventories (Mbs) OECD crude inventories (Mbs) 5 Yr Average ,300 5yr avg ,200 1, , OECD gasoline inventories (Mbs) 450 5yr avg OECD middle distillate inventories (Mbs) yr avg Source: Credit Suisse Research, Euroil, IEA 27

28 The International Scene European Product Inventories Original EU 16 gasoline inventories (Mbs) Original EU 16 middle distillate inventories (Mbs) Yr Average Yr Average Source: Credit Suisse Research, Euroil 28

29 The International Scene Chinese Runs & Product Flows China reported CDU outages (kb/d) 2, ,000 1,500 1, Chinese refinery crude runs (kb/d) ,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 Chinese diesel net imports(+)/exports( ) (kb/d) Chinese gasoline net imports(+)/exports( ) (kb/d) Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, NBS 29

30 Oil Macro

31 Consumer Related Economic Indicators for the US US gasoline share of disposable income (%; monthly through December) US household debt (trillion $; quarterly through 2016 Q4) 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1.7% Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan US personal savings ratio (%; monthly through December) Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Rising pay rolls in US (thousands of jobs; monthly through January) MoM, thous 12 MAV 195K thru Jan 3 MAV 183K thru Jan Source: Credit Suisse Research, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA, Credit Suisse Economics Team 31

32 Oil Macro Seasonally Adjusted Demand Global oil demand growth (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Global oil demand data, mom (rhs) and yoy (lhs) 3 mma % change 5% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J % 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% OECD oil demand growth (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 OECD oil demand data, mom (rhs) and yoy (lhs) 3 mma % change 3% 2% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F % 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, Country Data 32

33 Oil Macro Seasonally Adjusted Demand (cont d) Non-OECD oil demand growth (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) 10.9 Non-OECD oil demand data, mom (rhs) and yoy (lhs) 3 mma % change 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 8% 3.0% J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 6% 4% 2% 0% J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J % 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% EM Asia ex-china (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) 9.6 EM Asia ex-china oil demand data, mom (rhs) and yoy (lhs) 3 mma % change 8% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 6.0% J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J % 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% -1.5% Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, Country Data 33

34 Oil Macro Seasonally Adjusted Demand, US US (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 US oil demand data, mom and yoy 3 mma % change 6% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% A-11 A-12 A-13 A-14 A-15 A-16 US oil demand growth by product (annual averages in kb/d, yoy) 2012/ / / / / E/ E/17E Others*** LPGs** Fuel oil Jet fuel Diesel* Gasoline Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA 34

35 Oil Macro Seasonally Adjusted Demand, Europe & China OECD Europe (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) OECD Europe oil demand data, mom and yoy 3 mma % change 6% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 3% 9.6 0% 9.5-3% 9.4 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17-6% J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 China demand (3mma kbd) 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 adjusted demand 3mth average Poly. (3mth average) 8,000 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 China oil demand data, mom and yoy 3 mma % change China's oil product demand adjusted for gasoline and diesel inventory shifts YoY change kb/d ytd December* 2016 ytd December* December* 2016 ytd Gasoline 2,830 2,830 2,928 3,094 3, % 9.3% Kerosene % 13.0% Diesel 3,428 3,428 3,500 3,355 3, % -2.1% MD 4,020 4,020 4,064 4,024 4, % 0.1% Fuel oil % -2.5% LPG 1,095 1,095 1,200 1,375 1, % 25.6% Naphtha % 14.6% "Drive" 6,850 6,850 6,992 7,118 7, % 3.9% "Burn" 2,353 2,353 2,433 2,725 2, % 15.8% Total 9,203 9,203 9,425 9,843 10, % 6.9% * three month rolling average. "Drive" = gasoline + diesel + kerosene Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, NBS 35

36 Oil Macro Gasoline & Gas Oil Demand Trends Long history of gasoline and gas oil demand (Mb/d) Gasoline 18 Gas Oil 17 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Gasoline demand momentum (levels lhs Mb/d; growth rhs kb/d) 25 YoY growth (rhs) 24 Gasoline Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan Gas Oil demand momentum (levels lhs Mb/d; growth rhs kb/d) 25 YoY growth (rhs) 24 Gas Oil Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan Data from our reported oil demand by product file cover ~85% of global demand Gas oil includes diesel and heating oil. Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, BP statistical review, Country Data 36

37 Oil Macro Global Demand YoY % Change 1,000 b/d Base by quarter ( ) by year ( ) "norm" by year in kb/d % Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E E 2018E E 2018E Global 94, % 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% OECD 46, % 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% -0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% -0.3% Emerging Markets 48, % 3.4% 3.9% 2.2% 1.7% 1.0% 2.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 3.1% OECD Americas 24, % -0.4% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% Canada 2, % -0.5% -1.8% 1.8% 2.7% -0.6% -0.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.9% -0.3% -2.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% Mexico 2, % -0.2% 2.1% -1.5% -6.4% -4.7% 1.3% 5.2% 5.4% 6.0% -1.2% -2.4% -1.6% -2.7% 4.5% 2.8% -0.9% USA 19, % -0.5% 0.2% -0.3% 0.4% 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 2.5% 0.8% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.2% 0.4% South America 6, % -3.6% -3.4% -2.8% -0.6% -3.6% 0.5% -0.5% -1.4% 0.9% 3.6% 2.2% -1.8% -2.6% -0.1% 1.7% 2.4% Brazil 3, % -7.1% -5.1% -3.7% 1.1% -5.6% -1.0% -1.3% -3.1% 1.6% 4.8% 4.7% -3.8% -3.3% -1.0% 2.2% 2.8% Argentina % 2.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.4% 0.2% -0.3% 1.3% 5.0% -1.9% 4.9% 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 3.2% Europe 14, % 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 1.8% 2.8% 0.4% -0.2% 0.3% -0.2% -1.9% -0.8% 1.7% 2.2% 0.1% -0.8% -1.3% France 1, % -2.6% -0.6% -0.7% -1.2% 2.2% 2.3% -1.1% -1.2% -1.0% -1.3% -1.3% 0.0% -0.1% -0.3% -1.1% -1.5% Germany 2, % 0.2% 2.2% 3.7% -0.1% 2.6% -0.6% 1.6% 5.3% 2.1% 0.0% -2.5% -0.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.6% -0.8% Italy 1, % 0.2% 2.2% 1.3% -1.0% -1.7% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -6.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% -0.3% -1.2% -3.8% UK 1, % 1.4% 3.0% 4.8% 2.5% 2.4% -0.8% -0.8% -0.9% -0.9% -2.0% -0.5% 1.7% 3.1% -0.9% -1.8% -1.0% Oth Europe 7, % 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 3.4% 3.9% 0.6% -0.3% -0.4% -0.6% -1.7% -0.4% 3.0% 2.9% -0.2% -0.9% -1.1% FSU 4, % -1.9% 3.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.8% -0.5% 1.7% -4.2% -0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% Mideast 9, % 5.5% 1.2% -2.8% -2.3% -2.8% 0.1% 0.2% -0.6% 0.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.9% -1.8% -0.1% 3.7% 3.4% Saudi Arabia 3, % 7.1% 3.3% -5.6% -4.8% -7.4% -3.3% -1.8% -2.6% -2.8% 0.7% 6.5% 5.2% -3.9% -2.6% 5.0% 4.0% Iran 1, % -1.6% -0.2% -4.0% -2.4% -1.7% 2.8% 3.3% 3.3% 2.9% 6.9% -1.5% -3.3% -2.1% 3.1% 5.0% 0.9% Iraq % 5.4% 2.6% 3.4% -2.7% 9.1% 3.4% 3.1% 1.8% 2.3% 7.2% 2.6% 6.9% 2.9% 2.6% 5.4% 7.1% Africa 4, % 6.7% 5.6% 4.9% 4.2% 1.7% 2.7% 3.5% 4.2% 5.1% 7.4% 2.1% 5.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.0% Egypt % 9.9% 7.5% 7.2% 5.7% -4.3% -1.1% 4.7% -2.3% 4.0% 1.7% 6.7% 4.7% 3.8% 1.1% 0.5% 1.6% Asia-Pac 31, % 3.4% 4.4% 4.5% 3.2% 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.1% 3.5% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 2.7% China 11, % 3.1% 6.3% 6.9% 3.4% 3.6% 4.1% 2.4% 4.5% 3.3% 2.4% 2.6% 5.0% 5.0% 3.6% 2.3% 3.8% India 4, % 10.4% 11.9% 8.6% 7.8% 6.8% 5.7% 5.5% 7.6% 5.7% 0.6% 3.2% 8.0% 8.7% 6.1% 4.9% 4.7% Indonesia 1, % 0.7% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 5.4% 0.6% 2.0% -2.8% 3.7% 2.9% 0.7% 3.2% Japan 4, % -5.8% -5.8% -3.7% -2.7% 1.2% -0.1% -1.5% -2.1% -2.4% 0.7% -5.3% -3.4% -2.8% -1.5% -2.5% -0.9% South Korea 2, % 5.5% 5.6% 8.2% 7.3% 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 2.5% 6.6% 0.2% -0.9% 1.2% Australia 1, % 0.4% -0.7% 0.8% -1.1% -0.7% 3.4% 2.2% 2.7% 3.0% 1.7% -0.2% 0.4% -0.4% 2.8% 1.8% 1.7% Thailand 1, % 6.8% 7.1% 4.4% 5.8% 0.9% 2.3% 3.6% 3.6% 4.5% 3.5% 0.8% 2.5% 4.5% 3.5% 0.8% 3.7% Taiwan 1, % 2.3% 1.6% -1.1% -1.0% 3.5% 3.9% 1.8% 5.1% 2.2% 2.7% 0.3% 1.5% 0.8% 3.5% 0.8% -0.7% Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI 37

38 Oil Macro Global Supply Table Oil Supply in kbd Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 2018E 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E E 2018E Global Total Oil 93,660 96,390 96,990 95,460 96,160 98,010 96,660 95,990 95,870 97,650 98,710 97,060 98,730 1, , ,840 2, ,670 Opec 14 all oil 37,730 38,910 38,740 38,620 39,070 39,850 39,950 38,540 38,690 40,140 40,340 40,300 41,470 1, , , ,180 1, ,170 Non Opec 53,260 54,810 55,590 54,010 54,310 55,480 53,970 54,850 54,390 54,800 55,690 54,070 54, ,350-1, ,190 1, Non Opec EX us 40,410 40,940 41,850 40,380 40,970 41,950 40,410 41,220 40,440 40,550 41,170 39,980 39, , North America 21,000 21,900 21,950 21,080 21,510 21,730 21,570 21,470 21,640 22,000 22,430 21,890 22, , US 12,850 13,870 13,740 13,630 13,340 13,530 13,560 13,630 13,950 14,250 14,520 14,090 15, ,760 1, Canada 4,280 4,390 4,610 3,860 4,570 4,760 4,450 4,520 4,380 4,470 4,700 4,520 4, Mexico 2,790 2,590 2,530 2,480 2,450 2,360 2,460 2,290 2,240 2,190 2,110 2,210 2, South America 8,310 8,470 8,110 8,050 8,080 8,030 8,070 7,820 7,760 7,730 7,650 7,740 7, Venezuela 2,710 2,650 2,530 2,400 2,320 2,280 2,380 2,190 2,140 2,070 2,000 2,100 1, Brazil 2,760 3,010 2,870 2,970 3,170 3,170 3,050 3,090 3,090 3,180 3,210 3,140 3, Argentina Colombia 990 1, Europe 4,240 4,430 4,600 4,450 4,310 4,610 4,490 4,580 4,500 4,310 4,510 4,470 4, Norw ay 1,870 1,940 2,030 1,940 1,890 2,110 1,990 2,010 1,930 1,870 2,010 1,960 1, United Kingdom ,060 1, ,070 1, ,010 1, FSU 13,980 14,140 14,350 14,110 14,010 14,590 14,260 14,570 14,240 14,390 14,680 14,470 14, Russia 10,810 10,990 11,180 11,050 11,080 11,460 11,190 11,320 11,080 11,270 11,390 11,260 11, Kazakhstan 1,700 1,670 1,690 1,580 1,520 1,760 1,640 1,850 1,750 1,770 1,980 1,840 1, Azerbaijan Middle East 28,950 30,220 31,070 31,380 32,090 32,420 31,740 31,330 31,320 32,680 32,790 32,040 33,210 1, ,530 1, ,270 1, ,170 Saudi Arabia 11,740 12,050 12,170 12,010 12,380 12,290 12,210 11,740 11,880 12,750 12,770 12,290 13, Iran 3,700 3,810 4,240 4,760 4,820 5,000 4,710 5,030 4,950 5,020 5,070 5,020 5, , UAE 3,540 3,690 3,620 3,690 3,770 3,800 3,720 3,720 3,720 3,780 3,790 3,750 3, Kuw ait 3,070 3,070 3,160 3,030 3,200 3,100 3,120 3,050 2,950 3,250 3,280 3,130 3, Iraq 3,310 4,050 4,340 4,330 4,390 4,660 4,430 4,420 4,390 4,390 4,390 4,400 4, Qatar 2,030 2,010 2,020 2,010 1,980 2,030 2,010 1,940 1,990 2,010 2,020 1,990 1, Oman ,000 1,000 1,010 1,010 1, Africa 8,300 8,260 8,060 7,710 7,620 8,160 7,890 7,830 8,070 8,280 8,440 8,160 8, Nigeria 2,250 2,220 2,150 1,880 1,670 1,940 1,910 1,810 1,860 1,960 2,060 1,920 1, Algeria 1,560 1,550 1,530 1,590 1,590 1,660 1,590 1,540 1,550 1,550 1,620 1,570 1, Libya , Angola 1,710 1,830 1,880 1,840 1,840 1,740 1,820 1,680 1,720 1,710 1,720 1,710 1, Sudan Asia 8,880 8,980 8,850 8,690 8,540 8,470 8,640 8,400 8,340 8,260 8,220 8,300 7, Indonesia China 4,220 4,300 4,160 4,040 3,930 3,910 4,010 3,870 3,810 3,770 3,750 3,800 3, India memo: Other Non Opec 4,660 4,650 5,290 5,060 5,060 5,230 4,280 5,120 5,030 5,010 5,020 4,160 4, Global Crude Oil 76,220 78,330 78,540 76,770 77,560 79,310 78,050 77,430 77,060 78,660 79,530 78,180 79, , , , ,290 2, ,090 Opec 14 crude oil 31,490 32,520 33,060 32,910 33,260 34,040 33,320 32,830 32,940 34,210 34,380 33,590 34,570 1, , , Saudi Arabia 9,900 10,230 10,310 10,160 10,470 10,400 10,340 9,940 10,060 10,800 10,830 10,410 11, Iran 2,880 2,860 3,120 3,640 3,670 3,840 3,570 3,870 3,780 3,820 3,850 3,830 3, , Nigeria 1,770 1,750 1,710 1,410 1,200 1,490 1,450 1,360 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,470 1, US 8,760 9,420 9,170 8,850 8,670 8,810 8,880 8,930 9,060 9,230 9,470 9,170 9, , Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, Petrologistics 38

39 Oil Macro Global Supply ex-saudi Arabia Global production ex-saudi Arabia (Mb/d) J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Non-OPEC production ex US (rhs) vs. US production (lhs) Non-Opec (ex-us) CAGR: = 0.61% Dec. '16 = 0.18% US CAGR: = 1.72% Nov. '16 = 8.91% 6 J-04 J-06 J-08 J-10 J-12 J-14 J US production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) Rigs Production Europe production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) Rigs Production F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, Petrologistics, Baker Hughes, Country Data 39

40 Oil Macro Regional Rig Counts & Production Latin America production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) 8100 Rigs Production Africa production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) Rigs Production F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 0 Asia Pacific production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) Rigs Production Middle East production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) Rigs Production F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 F-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, Petrologistics, Baker Hughes, Country Data 40

41 Oil Macro Declining Production Tracker OPEC and Non-OPEC trended decline tracker (Mb/d) Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Russia production (crude + NGLs) (Mb/d) Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 OPEC trended decline tracker (Mb/d) Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Note: Includes Angola, Nigeria, Algeria, Ecuador, Venezuela Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, Petrologistics, JODI, BP, Country Data Non-OPEC trended decline tracker (Mb/d) Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Note: Includes Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, Norway, Colombia, Indonesia, US GoM, US conventional, UK, Egypt, Malaysia, Argentina, Thailand, Equitorial Guinea, Australia 41

42 Oil Macro Declining Production Tracker (cont d) OPEC and Non-OPEC trended decline tracker (mom rhs, yoy lhs) 3% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 2% 1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% A look at production in those regions/countries most vulnerable to decline. 0% 0.0% -1% -0.5% -2% -1.0% -3% J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J % OPEC trended decline tracker (mom rhs, yoy lhs) 4% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 2% 0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Non-OPEC trended decline tracker (mom rhs, yoy lhs) 3.0% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% -2% -0.5% 1.0% 0.5% -4% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6% -8% -2.0% J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Note: Includes Angola, Nigeria, Algeria, Ecuador, Venezuela Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, Petrologistics, JODI, BP, Country Data -1.5% -1.0% -2.0% J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J % -1.0% Note: Includes Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, Norway, Colombia, Indonesia, US GoM, US conventional, UK, Egypt, Malaysia, Argentina, Thailand, Equitorial Guinea, Australia 42

43 Oil Macro Decline Details Brazil production has recovered (3 mma Mb/d; yoy rhs Mb/d) YoY (Mb/d) (rhs) 3.1 Brazil China is in decline (3 mma Mb/d; yoy rhs Mb/d) 4.4 YoY (Mb/d) (rhs) 4.3 China Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul Mexico has hit a 3 year low (3 mma Mb/d; yoy rhs Mb/d) YoY (Mb/d) (rhs) 2.8 Mexico Opec outside the Middle East is in yoy decline (3mma Mb/d; yoy rhs Mb/d) YoY (Mb/d) (rhs) Opec ex Middle East Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, NBS, ANP, Pemex, ECB, Petrologistics 43

44 Saudi Arabia Productivity and Price Tracker Keeping an eye on the rig count and OSPs vs. benchmarks Saudi Arabia rig count (rhs) and total liquids production (kb/d; lhs) Saudi OSP US ASCI ($/b) 13, Saudi OSP US 12, , , Saudi rigs Production Saudi 1H17e Saudi 2H17e -1 9,000 0 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Saudi OSP Asia Oman/Dubai ($/b) 6 Saudi OSP Asia J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Saudi OSP NWE Weighted Average Brent ($/b) 2 Saudi OSP NWE J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Baker Hughes, Petrologistics 44

45 Saudi Arabia Productivity and Price Tracker (cont d) Keeping an eye on the rig count and OSPs vs. benchmarks Saudi Arabia rig count (rhs) and crude production (kb/d; lhs) 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 Saudi rigs Production Saudi 1H17e Saudi 2H17e 8,000 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun Saudi OSP US ASCI ($/b) (0.50) (1.00) range avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Saudi OSP Asia Oman/Dubai ($/b) range avg (1.00) (2.00) (3.00) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Saudi OSP NWE Weighted Average Brent ($/b) range avg (1.00) (2.00) (3.00) (4.00) (5.00) (6.00) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Baker Hughes, Petrologistics 45

46 Saudi Arabia and Core GCC Crude Exports Keeping an eye on exports from the Mideast Crude exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran (Mb/d) 9 Saudi Trade Flows Iran Trade Flows (rhs) Iraq Trade Flows (rhs) Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan Aggregate crude exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran (Mb/d) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Crude exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran (Mb/d) Tanker Flows Exports Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Reuters, JODI, Petrologistics 46

47 Oil Macro Global Balances (Demand) Demand (Mb/d) Q1-'15 Q2-'15 Q3-'15 Q4-' Q1-'16 Q2-'16 Q3-'16 Q4-' Q1-'17 Q2-'17 Q3-'17 Q4-' Global yoy yoy (%) 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 1.8% 2.2% 2.7% 1.7% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% OECD yoy (0.7) 0.3 (0.3) yoy (%) -1.4% 0.6% -0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% Americas yoy (0.4) (0.1) (0.0) yoy (%) -1.6% 1.9% 0.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% -0.4% 1.7% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% Europe yoy (0.4) (0.3) (0.1) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) yoy (%) -2.7% -1.8% -0.8% 2.6% 0.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.5% 2.6% 1.7% 2.7% 2.1% 0.2% -0.3% 0.3% -0.3% 0.0% -0.8% Asia Pacific yoy (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) yoy (%) 1.5% 0.8% -2.7% -2.2% -0.9% 0.7% -1.5% -1.0% -1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.3% -1.2% Non-OECD yoy yoy (%) 3.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3.9% 2.2% 1.7% 1.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% China yoy yoy (%) 3.9% 2.4% 2.6% 5.4% 5.8% 5.7% 3.1% 5.0% 6.3% 6.9% 3.4% 3.6% 5.0% 4.1% 2.4% 4.5% 3.3% 3.6% 2.3% Other emerging Asia yoy yoy (%) 3.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.9% 4.6% 5.8% 7.1% 5.1% 7.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 3.6% 3.7% 4.9% 4.4% 4.2% 2.3% Mideast yoy (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) 0.3 yoy (%) 3.4% 3.0% 3.5% 1.1% 4.0% 4.7% 5.5% 3.9% 1.2% -2.8% -2.3% -2.8% -1.8% 0.1% 0.2% -0.6% 0.0% -0.1% 3.7% South America yoy (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) 0.1 (0.0) 0.1 yoy (%) 4.2% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1% -0.7% -3.0% -3.6% -1.8% -3.4% -2.8% -0.6% -3.6% -2.6% 0.5% -0.5% -1.4% 0.9% -0.1% 1.7% FSU & EM Europe yoy 0.1 (0.0) 0.1 (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) 0.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) yoy (%) 2.0% -1.0% 1.4% -4.9% -5.1% -2.7% -1.4% -3.5% 3.1% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% Africa yoy yoy (%) 2.4% 7.4% 2.1% 5.0% 3.5% 6.3% 6.7% 5.4% 5.6% 4.9% 4.2% 1.7% 4.1% 2.7% 3.5% 4.2% 5.1% 3.9% 3.7% Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, EIA, NBP, ANP 47

48 Oil Macro Global Balances (Supply) Supply (Mb/d) Q1-'15 Q2-'15 Q3-'15 Q4-' Q1-'16 Q2-'16 Q3-'16 Q4-' Q1-'17 Q2-'17 Q3-'17 Q4-' Global yoy (1.0) (0.4) (1.0) yoy (%) 3% 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% -1% 0% 1% 0% -1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% Non-Opec yoy (0.2) (1.4) (1.2) (0.5) (0.8) (0.7) yoy (%) 2% 3% 4% 5% 3% 3% 1% 3% 0% -3% -2% -1% -2% -1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% North America yoy (0.0) (0.5) (0.6) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) yoy (%) 8% 9% 11% 10% 4% 4% 1% 5% 0% -3% -3% -2% -2% -2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% of which US onshore crude + NGLs yoy (0.2) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) yoy (%) 17% 16% 18% 17% 11% 6% 1% 9% -2% -4% -6% -5% -4% -1% 2% 8% 9% 5% 10% FSU yoy (0.0) (0.0) yoy (%) 0% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% of which Russia yoy (0.1) yoy (%) 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2% -1% 1% 1% Asia yoy 0.2 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 0.1 (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) yoy (%) 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% -2% -5% -7% -7% -5% -6% -5% -4% -3% -4% -5% South America yoy (0.0) (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) yoy (%) 0% 0% 5% 9% 7% 4% 0% 5% -5% -3% -1% -2% -3% 1% 0% -2% -2% -1% -2% Europe yoy (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) yoy (%) -6% -4% 1% 1% 8% 6% 4% 5% 5% -1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% -2% 0% -1% Africa yoy (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) yoy (%) -8% 3% 3% -1% -1% -1% -3% -1% -6% -9% -3% 0% -5% -1% 4% 0% -4% -1% -5% Mideast yoy (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) yoy (%) -3% -1% -6% 0% -1% -4% 0% -1% -5% -1% 1% 1% -1% -8% -8% -5% -5% -6% -3% Opec yoy 1.5 (1.0) (0.3) (0.2) yoy (%) 4% -3% -1% 1% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 1% 2% 4% 3% -1% 0% 3% 1% 1% 3% Opec crude oil yoy 1.3 (1.1) (0.4) (0.2) yoy (%) 4% -3% -1% 1% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 1% 2% 4% 2% -1% 0% 3% 1% 1% 3% of which Saudi Arabia yoy 0.5 (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.1) yoy (%) 5% -1% 0% 0% 5% 3% 5% 3% 3% -3% 2% 2% 1% -4% -1% 3% 4% 1% 6% Opec non-crude yoy yoy (%) 5% 1% 1% 0% 3% 3% 4% 2% 5% 3% 4% 3% 4% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% Processing Gains Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, Petrologistics, EIA, NBP, ANP 48

49 Oil Macro Global Balances (Inventories) Balance Q1-'15 Q2-'15 Q3-'15 Q4-' Q1-'16 Q2-'16 Q3-'16 Q4-' Q1-'17 Q2-'17 Q3-'17 Q4-' implied inventory change (Mb/d) 0.6 (0.3) (0.1) (0.8) (1.2) (0.9) (0.7) 0.1 (0.7) (0.3) reported inventory change (Mb/d) 0.3 (0.1) (1.0) 0.4 OECD 0.2 (0.3) (0.9) (0.0) non-oecd (0.3) 0.2 oil at sea (0.0) (0.0) call on Opec & stocks yoy (0.4) (0.2) (1.4) (0.8) yoy (%) -1% -1% -4% -3% 0% 3% 3% 1% 6% 9% 6% 5% 6% 7% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% call on Saudi & stocks yoy (1.2) 0.7 (1.0) (1.1) (0.8) (0.1) 0.1 (0.5) yoy (%) -11% 8% -10% -12% -9% -1% 1% -5% 10% 26% 18% 6% 15% 24% 7% 2% 13% 11% 3% call on US onshore crude + NGLs & stocks yoy (0.6) (0.2) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) yoy (%) -8% 30% 7% 6% -2% 2% -2% 1% 3% 22% 9% -2% 8% 24% 9% 7% 19% 14% 6% Inventories Q1-'15 Q2-'15 Q3-'15 Q4-' Q1-'16 Q2-'16 Q3-'16 Q4-' Q1-'17 Q2-'17 Q3-'17 Q4-' reported inventory (billion bls) OECD non-oecd oil at sea days demand cover (excl. China SPR) yoy (0.4) (0.6) (1.6) (1.6) (2.5) (3.6) (4.7) (2.8) (2.8) (2.4) yoy (%) -1% -1% 3% 5% 5% 6% 8% 8% 4% 2% 0% -3% -3% -5% -6% -8% -5% -5% -5% OECD yoy 1.4 (2.1) (1.2) (1.2) yoy (%) 2% -4% 4% 8% 7% 10% 11% 11% 7% 5% 1% -2% -2% non-oecd yoy (1.9) (0.4) (0.7) (1.9) (1.9) yoy (%) -4% 3% 2% 2% 4% 3% 5% 5% 1% -1% -2% -4% -4% Demand (3 mma) Supply 92 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 approx impact of Opec deal 3.0 implied inventory change 3 mma 2.5 reported inventory change 3 mma (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, EIA, NBP, ANP 49

50 Oil Macro Global Inventory Data million barrels YoY diff to avg Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories + China SPR 5,793 5,839 5,867 5,907 5,932 5,957 6,031 6,023 6,098 6,079 6,065 6,031 5,998 5, ,027 1,048 China SPR Reported Commercial Oil Inventories 5,572 5,594 5,637 5,650 5,652 5,651 5,707 5,700 5,759 5,729 5,698 5,691 5,650 5, crude 3,075 3,107 3,092 3,089 3,105 3,098 3,125 3,127 3,109 3,097 3,098 3,134 3,103 3, products 2,497 2,487 2,545 2,561 2,548 2,553 2,582 2,573 2,650 2,632 2,600 2,557 2,547 2, OECD 2,961 2,975 3,010 3,010 3,001 3,014 3,039 3,042 3,091 3,073 3,046 3,032 3,010 2, crude 1,148 1,172 1,173 1,190 1,197 1,203 1,211 1,205 1,202 1,177 1,172 1,193 1,177 1, products 1,813 1,803 1,837 1,820 1,804 1,811 1,828 1,836 1,889 1,896 1,874 1,839 1,834 1, North America 1,552 1,550 1,572 1,568 1,578 1,588 1,590 1,598 1,625 1,622 1,605 1,611 1,611 1, crude products Europe ,014 1,020 1,002 1,006 1,015 1,006 1,024 1, crude products Asia crude products Non-OECD 1,448 1,454 1,454 1,463 1,453 1,443 1,454 1,445 1,455 1,451 1,448 1,445 1,422 1, crude products EM Asia crude products Middle East crude products Latin America crude products Africa crude products Europe crude products FSU crude products Independent Storage Singapore products ARA crude ARA products Saldana Bay Oil at Sea ,005 1,010 1,003 1,009 1,006 1,020 1,026 1, Oil in Transit ,006 1,006 1, Floating Storage Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, EIA, Country Data 50

51 Oil Macro Global Inventory Data (cont d) IEA+JODI+China YoY diff to avg million barrels Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories + China SPR 5,793 5,839 5,867 5,907 5,932 5,957 6,031 6,023 6,098 6,079 6,065 6,031 5,998 5, ,027 1,048 China SPR Reported Commercial Oil Inventories 5,572 5,594 5,637 5,650 5,652 5,651 5,707 5,700 5,759 5,729 5,698 5,691 5,650 5, crude 3,075 3,107 3,092 3,089 3,105 3,098 3,125 3,127 3,109 3,097 3,098 3,134 3,103 3, products 2,497 2,487 2,545 2,561 2,548 2,553 2,582 2,573 2,650 2,632 2,600 2,557 2,547 2, North America 1,552 1,550 1,572 1,568 1,578 1,588 1,590 1,598 1,625 1,622 1,605 1,611 1,611 1, crude products Europe 1,060 1,068 1,090 1,098 1,077 1,083 1,095 1,086 1,103 1,088 1,069 1,055 1,049 1, crude products Asia 1,018 1,030 1,032 1,040 1,034 1,033 1,052 1,045 1,049 1,048 1,056 1,046 1,017 1, crude (ex China SPR) products Middle East crude products Latin America crude products Africa crude products Independent Storage Singapore products ARA crude ARA Products Saldana Bay Oil at Sea ,005 1,010 1,003 1,009 1,006 1,020 1,026 1, Oil in Transit ,006 1,006 1, Floating Storage days of cover YoY diff to avg Demand Cover Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories + China SPR Reported Commercial Oil Inventories OECD North America Europe Asia Non-OECD EM Asia Middle East Crude Production Cover Latin America Africa Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, EIA, Country Data 51

52 US Gulf Coast (USGC)

53 USGC Crude Spreads Brent LLS ($/b) $ $6 $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$6 LLS Houston ($/b) $8 $6 $4 $2 -$2 -$4 J-13 N-13 M-14 J-14 N-14 M-15 J-15 N-15 M-16 J-16 N-16 Houston WTI ($/b) LLS MARS ($/b) $15 $10 $5 Houston WTI ($/b) -$5 J-13 N-13 M-14 J-14 N-14 M-15 J-15 N-15 M-16 J-16 N-16 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $ Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 53

54 USGC Crude Spreads (cont d) LLS MAYA ($/b) $ $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 RFO LLS ($/b) $5 -$10 -$15 -$20 Brent ASCI ($/b) $ $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Arab Light MARS ($/b) $ $2 $2 $1 $1 -$1 -$1 -$2 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 54

55 USGC Crack Spreads and Refining Margins US Gulf Coast gasoline cracks ($/b) (LLS based) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $ US Gulf Coast distillate cracks ($/b) (LLS based) $25 $20 $15 $10 $ US Gulf Coast gasoline cracks ($/b) (WTI based) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $ US Gulf Coast distillate cracks ($/b) (WTI based) $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $ Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 55

56 USGC Crack Spreads and Refining Margins (cont d) US Gulf Coast ($/b) (WTI based) US Gulf Coast ($/b) (LLS based) $ $ $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 US Gulf Coast ($/b) (MAYA based) $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $ VGO cracks vs LLS Gulf Coast crack ($/b) $30 VGO crack LLS crack $20 $10 -$10 -$20 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 56

57 USGC PADD III Refinery Runs PADD III crude runs (Mb/d) PADD III crude inventories (Mbs) year average year average PADD III utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 100% 4 year average % PADD III CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) yr ave frcst 2017 actuals % % 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 57

58 USGC PADD III Inventories and Crude Flows PADD III crude inventories (Mbs) PADD III crude days of forward cover year average year average PADD III domestic crude production, monthly data (Mb/d) 5 year average exit rate PADD III crude oil imports (Mb/d) 8 5 year average Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 58

59 USGC PADD III Storage Capacity and Detail PADD III crude inventories and forecast (Mbs) J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 November-16 PADD III Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity Current inventories PADD III refineries 93,842 91,650 59,573 48,309 Texas Inland 1,755 Texas Gulf Coast 26,547 La. Gulf Coast 18,496 N. La., Ark 1,195 New Mexico 316 Tank farms (excluding SPR) 269, , , ,707 2/24/2017 PADD III Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity * Current inventories "Head Room" till working capacity is full # of weeks till full Three week average build PADD III (excluding SPR): 363, , , ,591 78,791 3, (*) Note: has been adjusted to account for oil in transit as well as a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 59

60 Permian

61 Permian Crude Spreads WTI (Cushing) WTI (Midland) ($/b) $ $4 $3 $2 $1 -$1 -$2 -$3 -$4 WTI (Cushing) WTS (Midland) ($/b) $4 $3 $2 $1 -$1 -$2 -$3 -$ Permian basin crude production (kb/d) Permian Region 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-1 Permian rig count Permian F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 F-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, EIA, Baker Hughes 61

62 Permian Pipeline Map Permian pipeline map Source: Pioneer Natural Resources 62

63 Mid - Continent

64 Mid Continent Crude Spreads WTI LLS ($/b) -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 -$ $30 WCS Canadian Heavy LLS ($/b) -$5 -$10 -$15 -$20 -$ Syncrude LLS ($/b) $ $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 -$10 -$12 Bakken (Clearbrook) LLS ($/b) -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 -$10 -$12 -$14 -$ Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 64

65 Mid Continent Crack Spreads and Product Differentials US Mid-Continent Cushing ($/b) (WTI based) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $ US Rockies ($/b) (WTI based) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $ Mid-Con USGC gasoline price ($/b) $40 $30 $20 $10 -$10 -$ Mid-Con USGC distillate price ($/b) $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 -$ Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 65

66 Mid Continent PADD II Refinery Runs PADD II crude runs (Mb/d) 4 5 year average PADD II crude inventories (Mbs) year average PADD II utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 110% 4 year average % 90% 80% PADD II CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) yr ave frcst 2017 actuals % 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 66

67 Mid Continent PADD IV Refinery Runs PADD IV crude runs (Mb/d) year average PADD IV inventories (Mbs) year average PADD IV utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 110% 4 year average % 90% 80% 70% 60% PADD IV CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) yr ave frcst 2017 actuals Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 67

68 Mid Continent PADD II & IV Inventories and Crude Flows PADD II crude inventories (Mbs) PADD IV inventories (Mbs) year average year average PADD II + IV domestic crude production, monthly data (Mb/d) year average exit rate PADD II + IV crude oil imports (Mb/d) year average Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 68

69 Mid Continent PADD II Product Stocks/Storage Capacity PADD II total gasoline inventories (Mbs) 65 5 year average PADD II total middle distillate inventories (Mbs) 40 5 year average November-16 PADD II Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity Current inventories PADD II refineries 25,410 24,677 18,508 15,102 Tank farms (excluding SPR) 153, , , ,280 Cushing Ok 88,010 87,685 73,014 64,564 2/24/2017 PADD II Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity * Current inventories "Head Room" till working capacity is full # of weeks till full Three week average build PADD II (excluding SPR): 179, , , ,971 26, Cushing Ok 88,010 87,685 73,014 63,535 9, NA (*) Note: has been adjusted to account for oil in transit as well as a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 69

70 West Coast

71 West Coast Crude & Crack Spreads ANS KERN ($/b) US West Coast ($/b) (ANS based) $ $ $20 $15 $60 $50 $40 $10 $5 $30 $20 $10 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 71

72 West Coast PADD V Refinery Runs PADD V crude runs (Mb/d) PADD V crude inventories (Mbs) 3 5 year average year average PADD V utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 100% 4 year average % 80% 70% 60% PADD V CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) yr ave frcst 2017 actuals Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 72

73 West Coast PADD V Inventories and Crude Flows PADD V crude inventories (Mbs) PADD V crude days of forward cover 65 5 year average year average PADD V domestic crude production, monthly data (Mb/d) year average exit rate 2016 PADD V crude oil imports (Mb/d) year average Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 73

74 West Coast Gasoline Sales and Usage PADD V gasoline inventories (Mbs) 40 5 year average PADD V diesel inventories (Mbs) 17 5 year average PADD 5 finished motor gasoline demand (kb/d) SA T 13 Trend J-95 J-97 J-99 J-01 J-03 J-05 J-07 J-09 J-11 J-13 J-15 California Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT, in billions) T 13 trend J-95 J-97 J-99 J-01 J-03 J-05 J-07 J-09 J-11 J-13 J-15 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA, California Department of Transportation 74

75 West Coast PADD V Storage Capacity and Detail November-16 PADD V Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity Current inventories PADD V refineries 43,125 40,924 30,693 25,027 Tank farms (excluding SPR) 35,491 34,423 28,117 24,981 2/24/2017 PADD V Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity * Current inventories "Head Room" till working capacity is full # of weeks till full Three week average build PADD V (excluding SPR): 78,616 75,347 73,383 50,069 23, (*) Note: has been adjusted to account for oil in transit as well as a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 75

76 East Coast

77 East Coast Product Cracks & Gasoline Demand US East Coast ($/b) (Brent based) $20 $15 $10 $5 US East Coast gasoline cracks ($/b) (Brent based) $30 $25 $20 $ US East Coast diesel cracks ($/b) (Brent based) $ $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 PADD I gasoline demand, monthly data (kb/d) 3,600 5 year average ,400 3,200 $10 $5 3,000 2,800 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts, EIA 77

78 East Coast Structural Changes in the North East East Coast Refining Capacity vs. Regional Demand (kb/d, unless otherwise noted) Capacity % of Capacity Demand Capacity as a % of Demand Capacity % of Capacity Philadelphia % % St. John % % Bayway % % Quebec City % % Trainer % % Delaware City % % Paulsboro % % United % % Ergon % % Hovensa % 0 0.0% Aruba % 0 0.0% Marcus Hook % 0 0.0% Earle Point % 0 0.0% Montreal % 0 0.0% Yorktown % 0 0.0% Demand Capacity as a % of Demand Total* % % % % (*) Note: Numbers include estimates for Quebec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces 2008 Today Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA, CAPP, Company Data 78

79 Technicals

80 Other Technical Indicators Brent futures Managed Money positions (thousands of contracts) 600 Long MM Contracts Shorts J-13M-13S-13 J-14M-14S-14 J-15M-15S-15 J-16M-16S-16 J-17 WTI futures Managed Money positions (thousands of contracts) 500 Long MM Contracts Shorts J-13M-13S-13 J-14M-14S-14 J-15M-15S-15 J-16M-16S-16 J-17 Net length for Managed Money positions over the past year Brent MM WTI MM Current Hi Low Average Total Crude MM (contracts) Open interest for all categories over the past year (thousands of contracts) Brent OI WTI OI Total Crude OI (contracts) Current Hi Low Average Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CFTC, ICE 80

81 Other Technical Indicators - Continued Brent price technicals (lhs), trading volume & OI (rhs) WTI price technicals (lhs), trading volume & OI (rhs) OI (futures) Volume (futures) Brent Price 63 day mav 200 day mav 6000 OI (futures) Volume (futures) WTI Price 63 day mav 200 day mav S-14 D-14 M-15 J-15 S-15 D-15 M-16 J-16 S-16 D S-14 D-14 M-15 J-15 S-15 D-15 M-16 J-16 S-16 D-16 0 Brent May 2017 options positioning by strike price 20 WTI May 2017 options positioning by strike price Calls Puts $7 $20 $32 $45 $57 $70 $82 $95 $107 $120 $ Calls Puts -15 $5 $18 $30 $43 $55 $68 $80 $93 $105 $118 $130 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CFTC, ICE 81

82 Other Technical Indicators - Continued Brent futures curve open interest ($/b) WTI futures curve open interest ($/b) $70 $70 $60 $60 $50 $40 2/17/2017 2/24/2017 $50 $40 2/17/2017 2/24/2017 $30 $30 $20 A-16 M-17 S-17 A-18 O-18 M-19 D-19 J-20 J-21 $20 J-16 A-16 M-17 S-17 A-18 O-18 M-19 D-19 J-20 J-21 J-21 F-22 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CFTC, ICE 82

83 NGLs

84 NGL Prices & Fractionation Spreads Quarterly gross processing spread (ave. of weekly spreads) ($/gal.) Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17E Weekly gross processing spread ($/gal.) $1.60 Average Spread since 1992 =.32 $ J-92 O-94 J-97 A-00 J-03 O-05 J-08 A-11 J-14 N-16 Components of NGL fractionation spread ($/MMBtu) NGL barrel economics (%) Ethane Propane Butane Isobutane Natural Gasoline $14 Ethane Contr. 100% Natural Propane Contr. Gasoline, $10 Normal Butane Contr. 80% 23% Isobutane, Isobutane Contr. 12% $6 Natural Gasoline Contr. 60% Butane, 15% $2 -$2 Avg NGL Frac Spread Avg NGL Frac Spd $6 05: ~$1.59/MMBtu Current: ~$7.32/MMBtu J-00 O-01 J-03 A-05 J-07 O-08 J-10 A-12 J-14 O-15 40% 20% 0% Ethane, 15% NGL Barrel Economics Propane, 35% Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 84

85 NGL Arb. & Chemicals Prices VLGC spot tanker day rates (thousands of $) F. East Chemicals Prices ($/MT) $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $- 5 yr average $17.50 $15.00 $12.50 $10.00 F. East Polypropylene $7.50 F. East Linear Low Density Polyethylene USGC to Asia NGL arb. ($/gal.) $2.00 USGC to Europe NGL arb. ($/gal.) $2.00 $1.50 $1.50 $ $- US propane ($/gal.) Asia net-back ($/gal.) Hypothetical Asia net-back post PCE ($/gal.) J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 $ $- US propane ($/gal.) Europe net-back ($/gal.) J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts, Clarksons 85

86 Octane Monitor Aromatics and alky. should flag any imminent octane squeeze Butane RBOB ($/gal.) Alky FOB 87 unleaded waterborne gasoline ($/gal.) $1.00 J A J O $ $ Toluene LLS (RHS, $/gal.) vs. premium gasoline RBOB (LHS $/gal.) BTX aromatics ($/gal.) $ $6.50 Benzene Toluene Xylenes $1.50 $ Toluene - LLS Premium-RBOB spread $5.50 $4.50 $3.50 $2.50 $ Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 86

87 Other