Research Update: Iceland Foreign Currency Rating Lowered To 'BBB-' On Mounting Debt Burden; Outlook Negative
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1 November 24, 2008 Research Update: Iceland Foreign Currency Rating Lowered To 'BBB-' On Mounting Debt Burden; Outlook Primary Credit Analyst: Eileen X Zhang, CFA, London (44) ;eileen_zhang@standardandpoors.com Secondary Credit Analysts: John Chambers, CFA, New York (1) ;john_chambers@standardandpoors.com Kai Stukenbrock, Frankfurt (49) ;kai_stukenbrock@standardandpoors.com Table Of Contents Rationale Outlook Ratings List 1 Standard & Poor's. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P's permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer on the last page
2 Research Update: Iceland Foreign Currency Rating Lowered To 'BBB-' On Mounting Debt Burden; Outlook Rationale On Nov. 24, 2008, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term foreign currency rating on Republic of Iceland to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' due to the sovereign's mounting public sector debt burden. The Transfer & Convertibility assessment on Iceland was also lowered to 'BBB-' from 'A-' in response to controls on the capital account and some current account transactions, which have been in place since early October. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'BBB+/A-2' local currency ratings, and its 'A-3' short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings. The outlook is negative. In conjunction with these rating actions, Standard & Poor's also lowered its long-term foreign currency rating on Ibudalanasjodur (Housing Financing Fund; HFF), the government-owned enterprise for housing finance, to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The 'BBB' long-term local currency rating and the 'A-3' short-term foreign and local currency ratings were affirmed. The outlook is negative. The downgrade reflects Iceland's substantially higher debt burden compared with our projections when we last lowered the ratings on Iceland on Oct. 6, 2008, as the Icelandic government will assume a greater share of its banks' overseas operations in exchange for multilateral and bilateral balance of payments support. As a result of the steep rise in debt from the collapse of the banking system, coupled with a projected 10% contraction of the economy in 2009 and our forecast of double-digit fiscal deficits in 2009 and 2010, we expect gross general government debt to surge to over 130% of GDP, from the 29% at of the end of The sustainability of such a high foreign currency debt level depends on the ability of authorities to stabilize the Icelandic krona (ISK), as well as the capacity of national savings to rise from their current level of 12% of GDP. Outlook The negative outlook reflects execution risks on the IMF program, which fall into three areas. First, the amount of the program ($5 billion including other official support) may not be enough to restore stability and liquidity in the foreign exchange markets, particularly if there are uncertainties regarding the timing with which bilateral assistance is disbursed, or if there is heavy selling of the ISK293 billion stock of glacier bonds. Second, the amount allocated to recapitalize the financial system (ISK385 billion) may be insufficient if HFF needs additional capital to cover its ISK8-12 billion losses from its exposure to Icelandic banks or from rising defaults on home loans. Third, beginning in 2011, the government coalition may come under Standard & Poor s RatingsDirect November 24,
3 Research Update: Iceland Foreign Currency Rating Lowered To 'BBB-' On Mounting Debt Burden; Outlook strain as it will have to undertake a sharp fiscal adjustment through measures that so far haven't been identified. Any materialization of these risks would result in the foreign currency rating being lowered. On the other hand, successful stabilization of the exchange rate, and accumulation of foreign currency reserves via a shift of the balance of payments into surplus, could alleviate political and monetary tensions and pave the way for an economic recovery. This would in turn make fiscal consolidation possible, and hence lead to an improvement in the outlook for sovereign creditworthiness. Ratings List To From Iceland (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating Foreign Currency BBB-//A-3 BBB//A-3 Local Currency BBB+//A-2 BBB+//A-2 Transfer & Convertibility Assessment BBB- A- Commercial paper A-3 A-3 Ibudalanasjodur (Housing Financing Fund) Foreign currency BBB-//A-3 BBB//A-3 Local Currency BBB//A-3 BBB//A-3 NB: This list does not include all affected ratings. Additional Contact: Sovereign Ratings;SovereignLondon@standardandpoors.com Ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis, at It can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at select your preferred country or region, then Ratings in the left navigation bar, followed by Credit Ratings Search. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) 3
4 Research Update: Iceland Foreign Currency Rating Lowered To 'BBB-' On Mounting Debt Burden; Outlook ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow (7) Standard & Poor s RatingsDirect November 24,
5 Copyright 2008 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (S&P). S&P and/or its third party licensors have exclusive proprietary rights in the data or information provided herein. This data/information may only be used internally for business purposes and shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. Dissemination, distribution or reproduction of this data/information in any form is strictly prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by S&P, its affiliates or its third party licensors, S&P, its affiliates and its third party licensors do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P GIVES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P, its affiliates and its third party licensors be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber's or others use of the data/information contained herein. Access to the data or information contained herein is subject to termination in the event any agreement with a thirdparty of information or software is terminated. Analytic services provided by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (Ratings Services) are the result of separate activities designed to preserve the independence and objectivity of ratings opinions. The credit ratings and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or make any other investment decisions. Accordingly, any user of the information contained herein should not rely on any credit rating or other opinion contained herein in making any investment decision. Ratings are based on information received by Ratings Services. Other divisions of Standard & Poor's may have information that is not available to Ratings Services. Standard & Poor's has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non-public information received during the ratings process. Ratings Services receives compensation for its ratings. Such compensation is normally paid either by the issuers of such securities or third parties participating in marketing the securities. While Standard & Poor's reserves the right to disseminate the rating, it receives no payment for doing so, except for subscriptions to its publications. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at Any Passwords/user IDs issued by S&P to users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom they have been assigned. No sharing of passwords/user IDs and no simultaneous access via the same password/user ID is permitted. To reprint, translate, or use the data or information other than as provided herein, contact Client Services, 55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041; (1) or by to: research_request@standardandpoors.com. Copyright Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies. All Rights Reserved
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Research Update: Germany-Based DVB Bank Ratings Lowered To 'BBB/A-2' On Weakened Strategic Importance To Owner; Outlook Negative Primary Credit Analyst: Cihan Duran, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-242; cihan.duran@spglobal.com
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