International Dimensions of Monetary Policy Eighth BIS CCA Research Conference
|
|
- August Stewart
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 International Monetary Fund May 217 International Dimensions of Monetary Policy Eighth BIS CCA Research Conference Alejandro Werner Director Western Hemisphere Department
2 Spillovers to Domestic Interest Rates Spillovers to Capital Flows and Exchange Rates Financial Stability Issues
3 MEX ARG PER BOL CRI CHL COL URY BRA LA5 HKG ISR CAN SWE KOR AUS ZAF ADV EME MEX ARG PER BOL CRI CHL COL URY BRA LA5 HKG ISR CAN SWE KOR AUS ZAF ADV EME While the US policy rate changes affect mainly the Mexican and Canadian short-term rates there are significant spillovers from long-term rates across the board From the Federal Funds Rate to Domestic Short-Term Interest Rates (basis points) From 1-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields to Domestic Long- Term Interest Rates (basis points) Source: Carrière-Swallow, Y. and B. Gruss, Implications of Global Financial Integration for Monetary Policy in Latin America, chapter 4 in Challenges for Central Banking: Perspectives from Latin America. Note: Responses in basis points following a 1 basis point increase in the corresponding U.S. rate. Red bars mean statistically significant. ADV = advanced economies; EME = emerging market economies; LA5 = Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru. 3
4 Spillovers to Domestic Interest Rates Spillovers to Capital Flows and Exchange Rates Financial Stability Issues
5 US$ billion 35 LA7: Gross Capital Inflows 8 3 Average Response to U.S. monetary shock Percent of GDP 1 5 After shock Initial (latest) 2 1 Sources: Haver Analytics; IMF, Balance of Payment Statistics Yearbook database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: The response to US monetary shock corresponds to the implied change in capital inflows to LA7 countries if US monetary policy tightens unexpectedly by 5 bps. Ratios in percent of GDP refer to trend GDP in U.S. dollars. 5
6 US$ billion Global policy uncertainty have risen noticeably over the past year, seemingly at odds with declining measures of volatility in major equity markets presenting risks to capital flows if market volatility (VIX) catches up with policy uncertainty LA7: Gross Capital Inflows VIX U.S. economic policy uncertainty index (right scale) Global economic policy uncertainty index (right scale) Response to VIX shock After shock Initial (latest) Percent of GDP Jan. 5 Jan. 7 Jan. 9 Jan. 11 Jan. 13 Jan. 15 Jan Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; and Haver Analytics; Note: The economic policy uncertainty index for the United States and Global were developed by Scott Baker and Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago (212). Sources: Haver Analytics; IMF, Balance of Payment Statistics Yearbook database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: The response to VIX shock corresponds to the implied change in capital inflows to LA7 countries if VIX increases to close the gap with the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index (this corresponds to a 1- point shock to the VIX, from its current level ([15] to 25 points). Ratios in percent of GDP refer to trend GDP in U.S. dollars. 6
7 Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America (Number of countries by regime) Hard peg Soft peg Flexible Total Reserves Assets (US$ billions) Brazil (right scale) Peru Colombia Chile Mexico (right scale) Sources: IMF, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions; and IMF staff calculations. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. 7
8 When coping with inflows and reserve accumulation: Rules-based approach (Colombia and Mexico) Ad-hoc approach When coping with outflows/depreciation pressures, largest economies in the region tend to rely on pre-announced rules-based approach for foreign exchange sales Announcing the intervention is in principle preferable from a signaling perspective Transparent rules can alleviate fears FXI send mixed signals about commitment to inflation target/primacy of inflation objective 8
9 15 LAC: Average Real GDP (index: t-1 = 1) Asia: Average Real GDP (index: t-1 = 1) Depreciation 16 Depreciation Appreciation Appreciation t= t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4 1 t= t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4 Source: Druck, Magud, and Mariscal (215). Note: The horizontal axes denote time intervals of dollar appreciation and depreciation cycles of various lengths, sub-divided into four equal parts. These dollar cycles are identified using a regime-switching Markov model. Each cycle is between 3 and 9 years in length. In the source paper, similar charts are shown for other regions. 9
10 Spillovers to Domestic Interest Rates Spillovers to Capital Flows and Exchange Rates Financial Stability Issues
11 9 75 LA5: Nonfinancial Corporates Foreign Bond Issuance (US$ billions; 12-month rolling sum) LA: Corporate Leverage (debt to assets; %) 216:Q2 6 Brazil Colombia Peru Chile Mexico 25 Mean Median Sources: Dealogic; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Data for Brazil include issuance by foreign subsidiaries of Brazilian firms Sources: Bloomberg L.P., and IMF staff calculations. Note: The results are the median and mean of the nonfinancial corporates of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. 11
12 March March 217 Nonfinancial Corporates Bond Debt Currency Composition (US$ billions) Peru Mexico Colombia Chile Brazil Sectoral Composition (US$ billions) Other nonfinancial Industrials Consumer Selected Quasi Sovereigns (US$ billions) CODELCO (CHL) ECOPETROL (COL) Comision Fed Elec (MEX) Eletrobras (BRA) Materials Utilities 2 1 Energy 1 PEMEX (MEX) Local currency Foreign currency March 217 Petrobras (BRA) March 217 Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; Dealogic; and IMF staff calculations. 12
13 Sovereign Codelco Sovereign Ecopetrol Sovereign Pemex Sovereign Petrobras 1,5 1,25 1, 75 Latin America Brazil Colombia Peru Argentina Chile Mexico Corporate Spreads (basis points) CDS Spreads (5-year; basis points) Markers: March 216 Bars: March 217 1, Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Chile Colombia Mexico Brazil Source: Bloomberg L.P. Note: J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index; U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds. Source: Bloomberg L.P. Note: Ecopetrol data is implied CDS spread calculated by Bloomberg L.P. 13
14 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 1,4 1,2 Corporate Spreads: Scenario Analysis (basis points) 1, After shock 217Q1 (Initial) Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Source: Bloomberg L.P.; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Scenario 1 = increase global market volatility (doubling of the VIX from its current level). Scenario 2 = increase in sovereign CDS spreads and currency depreciation (based on a reversal of the trend observed in these two variables since 216Q1, except for Mexico where the currency depreciated further by 11 percent over that period.) 14
15 International Monetary Fund May 217 International Dimensions of Monetary Policy Eighth BIS CCA Research Conference Alejandro Werner Director Western Hemisphere Department
International Economic Outlook
International Monetary Fund September 9, 16 International Economic Outlook Alejandro Werner Director Western Hemisphere Department 1 Global and Regional Developments Relevant Issues Global and Regional
More informationAn Uneven Recovery. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department
International Monetary Fund November 1, 2018 An Uneven Recovery Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department I. Key Messages II. Global Crosscurrents III.
More informationTale of Two Adjustments. The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago June 14, 2017
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere April 17 Tale of Two Adjustments The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago June 1, 17 Outlook and Risks Tale of Two
More informationOutlook and Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean
International Monetary Fund Colombia, June 18 Outlook and Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean Carlos Caceres Western Hemisphere Department I. Global Economy, Financial Markets, and the U.S.
More informationExchange Rate Pass-Through: First versus Second-Round Effects
Exchange Rate Pass-Through: First versus Second-Round Effects Yan Carrière-Swallow (joint work with Bertrand Gruss, Nicolás Magud and Fabián Valencia) Madrid, Spain June 23, 2016 Motivation Estimating
More informationFinancial Integration in Latin America: A New Strategy for a New Normal. Carlos Caceres
Financial Integration in Latin America: A New Strategy for a New Normal Carlos Caceres Outline Section I: Motivation - What are the main issues? Historical context Current juncture Section II: What to
More informationChapter 4. Fiscal Multipliers: How Will Consolidation Affect Latin America and the Caribbean? Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere May 2018
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere May 2018 Chapter 4 Fiscal Multipliers: How Will Consolidation Affect Latin America and the Caribbean? Yan Carrière-Swallow, Antonio David, Daniel Leigh & Jorge
More informationSeminar Series on Regional Economic Integration
Seminar Series on Regional Economic Integration IMF Outreach Presentation on the IMF 214 Spillover Report Sweta Saxena Senior Economist IMF Research Department 26 September 214 9: 11: Manila time ADB Headquarters,
More informationWorld Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising?
World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising? January 214 1 Global activity has strengthened. Further improvements expected. WEO Update in a nutshell Advanced economy growth has picked up Robust private demand
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationFalling on Hard Times Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. Alejandro Werner. Director, Western Hemisphere Department.
Falling on Hard Times Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Alejandro Werner Director, Western Hemisphere Department January 27, 215 The global recovery remains uneven and subdued, as solid U.S.
More informationWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher
More informationU.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Markets Challenges
U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Markets Challenges Jose Viñals Financial Counselor and Director, IMF CEMLA, October, 213 Recovery of the global economy continues 6. GDP Growth Projections (In percent)
More information2016 External Sector Report
216 External Sector Report Global Imbalances and Policy Challenges September, 216 o Evolution of Global Current Accounts and Exchange Rates Widening and reconfiguration of imbalances in 215 Drivers: Asymmetric
More informationWorld Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April
World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing
More informationLatin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns
Latin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns October 11, 211 Agenda Latin America Sovereigns: Ratings Trajectory In A Weakening Global Environment
More informationChallenges and Opportunities in Recent Financial Market Developments
Challenges and Opportunities in Recent Financial Market Developments Mario Marcel Central Bank of Chile OMFIF 2018 Global Public Investor Conference, May 23, 2018 London International context Economic
More informationOverview of Presentation
Overview of Presentation Fiscal Outlook and Challenges How to Address Fiscal Challenges? 2 Fiscal Outlook and Challenges 3 While the fiscal drag is waning in AE, EMEs would need to start rebuilding buffers
More informationHow Do the Challenges Facing Emerging Europe Compare?
How Do the Challenges Facing Emerging Europe Compare? 12 th CEI Summit Economic Forum Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe First Shock: collapse in trade 6 4 World
More informationMexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION
Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Wilson Center, January 9, 2017 Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund BACKGROUND Growth in Economic Activity and Employment Have Remained Stable
More informationAmericas Latinas: revisited
Americas Latinas: revisited Global Insight World Economic Outlook Conference Manuel Balmaseda Chief Economist Boston, October 2007 Boston October 2007 1 A New LatAm Sounder Economics Sounder Domestic Policy
More informationLatin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017
Latin America Outlook 2nd QUARTER Latin America Outlook 2Q17 Main messages 1. Global growth keeps increasing, and uncertainty about US policies starts to fade. Nevertheless, global risks remain. 2. The
More informationMonetary Policy Implementation During US Policy Normalization. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México JP Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 1 October 214 1 Outline 1 Introduction 2 Monetary Policy in 214-15 a. The External Environment b. Domestic
More information2. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: The Right Policy Mix for Sustaining the Recovery
. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: The Right Policy Mix for Sustaining the Recovery Following a contraction in 16, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean turned positive in 17, owing to
More informationEmerging & Frontier Market Outlook
Emerging & Frontier Market Outlook Recovery, Rebalancing and Risk in an Uneven Global Environment DAVID STAPLES, MANAGING DIRECTOR, EMEA CORPORATE FINANCE MATT ROBINSON, ASSOCIATE MANAGING DIRECTOR, AFRICA
More informationOn Neutral Interest Rates in Latin America By Nicolas E. Magud and Evridiki Tsounta
On Neutral Interest Rates in Latin America By Nicolas E. Magud and Evridiki Tsounta Introduction An increasing number of Latin American countries have been strengthening their monetary policy frameworks
More informationFinancial Flows from the United States to Latin America
Economic and Financial Linkages in the Western Hemisphere Seminar organized by the Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund November 26, 2007 Financial Flows from the United States to
More informationThe Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market
Oct 09 Sep 10 Aug 11 Jul 12 Jun 13 May 14 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Basis Points Basis Points PERSPECTIVES The Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market May 2014
More informationFrom Tail Winds to Head Winds: Dilemmas and Trade offs for Monetary Policy in LAC. Alain Ize Lima, June
From Tail Winds to Head Winds: Dilemmas and Trade offs for Monetary Policy in LAC Alain Ize Lima, June 16 2008 1 Aims and caveats Two aims: Summarize the current policy dilemma and ask broad questions
More informationDeterminantes de los flujos de capitales. a las economías emergentes
Determinantes de los flujos de capitales a las economías emergentes XCV Reunión de Gobernadores de Bancos Centrales del CEMLA Jose Juan Ruiz Aide memoir CEMLA Seminar Based on Capital Flows in South America.
More informationLearning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss
Learning objectives Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss the fundamentals and valuations of emerging markets economies in 2018 the key risks of emerging market debt in 2018
More informationM&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager. November 2015
M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager November 2015 Agenda Macro update & government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds Fund positioning Emerging markets risks today Risks Slowing
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: A Fragile Recovery. June M. Ayhan Kose Four Questions
//7 Global Economic Prospects: A Fragile Recovery June 7 M. Ayhan Kose akose@worldbank.org Four Questions How is the health of the global economy? Recovery underway, broadly as expected How important is
More informationLatin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018
Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential
More informationFiscal Policy: Ready for The Next Shock?
Fiscal Policy: Ready for The Next Shock? Franziska Ohnsorge December 217 Duration of Global Expansions: Getting Older Although Not Yet Dying of Old Age 18 Global expansions (Number of years) 45 Expansions
More informationA Virtuous Cycle in Local Currency Bond Markets?
A Virtuous Cycle in Local Currency Bond Markets? John D. Burger The Sellinger School, Loyola College in Maryland Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Francis E. Warnock Darden Business School, NBER, IIIS at
More informationState-Owned Enterprises in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities
State-Owned Enterprises in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities Gustavo García Principal Technical Lead Fiscal Economist Fiscal and Municipal Management Division (FMM) Institutions
More informationOutlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean. Saul Lizondo. Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund
Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean Saul Lizondo Associate Director Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund Trinidad id d and Tobago, September, 1 Presentation
More informationConfronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Coordinators
Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Policy Trade-offs May for 20, Unprecedented 2009 - Maison Times: Confronting de l Amérique the Global Crisis Latine, America, ParisIADB,
More informationCapital Flows to Latin America: Policy Challenges and Responses
Capital Flows to Latin America: Policy Challenges and Responses Javier Guzmán Calafell Director General Center for Latin American Monetary Studies INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENTS: OLD AND NEW DEBATES Cusco,
More informationCAPITAL FLOWS TO LATIN AMERICA: CHALLENGES AND POLICY RESPONSES. Javier Guzmán Calafell 1
CAPITAL FLOWS TO LATIN AMERICA: CHALLENGES AND POLICY RESPONSES Javier Guzmán Calafell 1 1. Introduction Capital flows to Latin America and other emerging market regions fell sharply after the collapse
More informationAsia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook. PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji
Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji 1 Growth in the region remains strong... Growth Projections: World and Selected Asia (Percent change from
More informationLATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q2016 OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA. 4th QUARTER 2016
LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA 4th QUARTER LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q Main messages The global economy is heading for a slow recovery. Global GDP growth will improve slightly from the second
More informationInternational Monetary Fund Washington, D.C.
29 International Monetary Fund April 29 IMF Country Report No. 9/126 [Month, Day], 21 August 2, 21 Mexico: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Press Release on
More informationMonetary Policy Outlook for Mexico
Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 8 October 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 Monetary Policy in Mexico Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation
More informationRegional economic view of Latin America
Roberto Junguito, FASECOLDA Regional economic view of Latin America Insert your Company Logo here May 2013 Agenda 1. Insurance in Latin America 2. Insurance and Economics 3. Future Economic Challenges
More informationStronger growth, but risks loom large
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Stronger growth, but risks loom large Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Álvaro S. Pereira OECD Chief Economist ad interim Paris, 3 May Global growth will be around 4% Investment
More informationROUNDTABLE COMMENTS ON MONETARY AND REGULATORY POLICY IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL MARKETS
ROUNDTABLE COMMENTS ON MONETARY AND REGULATORY POLICY IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL MARKETS Liliana Rojas-Suarez Institute for International Economics D uring the conference we have heard a lot of stress placed
More informationRevenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean
Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 1990-2015 XXIX ECLAC Regional Seminar on Fiscal Policy Santiago, Chile March 23, 2017 Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 1990-2015
More informationProgress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction)
Progress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction) Source: OECD May 2014 Forecast, Haver Analytics, Rogoff and
More information4. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Latin America
4. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Latin America Recent currency depreciations are expected to create inflation pressure across Latin America, though more modest than in the past. Improvements in monetary
More informationExchange Rate and Fiscal Policies in developing countries: leaning against the wind?
Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policies in developing countries: leaning against the wind? Guillermo Perry Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank Conference on Emerging Powers in
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationLatin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
More informationHow middle-class is Latin America?
How middle-class is Latin America? Social inequality and well-being Jeff Dayton-Johnson Head, Americas Desk OECD Development Centre Latin American Conference on Measuring Well-Being and Fostering the Progress
More informationMonetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia. Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department
Monetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department Zurich, May 10, 2017 Monetary spillovers channels Exchange rate channel Domestic demand channel
More informationGLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no
More informationEmerging Market Debt Outlook
Emerging Market Debt Outlook Live Webcast hosted by: Luz Padilla Portfolio Manager Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DBLEX/DLENX) June 15, 2010 Fund Offerings Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund Retail
More informationRevenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean
Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 1990-2016 30th ECLAC Regional Seminar on Fiscal Policy Santiago, Chile 27 March, 2018 Revenue Statistics: a global project Revenue Statistics in Latin
More informationWorld real GDP growth in 2010 Annual percent change
World real GDP growth in 20 Annual percent change % or more 6-% 3-6% 0-3% Less than 0% No data Source: International Monetary Fund. World real GDP growth in 2011 Annual percent change % or more 6-% 3-6%
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationBrazil. 1993: billion % 2012: trillion % 2018 (estimated): trillion (estimated): trillion.
For investment professionals only - Not for use by retail investors Emerging world order Emerging Market Debt by the Numbers April 2013 The economic face of the world is changing and Aberdeen believes
More informationTaxes in Latin America and the Caribbean Situation and prospects
Taxes in Latin America and the Caribbean Situation and prospects Alberto Barreix Principal Technical Leader on Fiscal Economist, IDB Angel Melguizo, Head for Latin America, OECD Development Centre Taxation
More informationAsia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers
2018/FDM1/004 Session 2.1 Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers Purpose: Information Submitted by: International Monetary Fund Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting Port Moresby, Papua
More informationInflation-linked Bonds Recent Trends in Emerging Markets
Recent Trends in Emerging Markets Eighth Annual OECD-World Bank-IMF Global Bond Market Forum 9-10 May 2006, Washington DC Anderson Caputo Silva Senior Debt Specialist The World Bank 05/17/2006 1 Recent
More informationGlobal Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies
Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies By Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Luis Felipe Cespedes, Alessandro Rebucci Bank of Canada and European Central
More informationPanamanian Banks. Macro Outlook and Regional Framework. Alejandro Garcia, CFA Managing Director, Latin America Financial Institutions
Panamanian Banks Macro Outlook and Regional Framework Alejandro Garcia, CFA Managing Director, Latin America Financial Institutions August 9, 217 Contents 1 Panama: Slower but Still Robust Growth 2 Panamanian
More informationComments of Why did Latin America and Developing Countries Perform Better in the Global Financial Crisis than in the Asian Crisis?
14TH JACQUES POLAK ANNUAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE NOVEMBER 7 8, 2013 Comments of Why did Latin America and Developing Countries Perform Better in the Global Financial Crisis than in the Asian Crisis? Ilan
More informationShockwaves from the North: Latin America and the External Deterioration
Shockwaves from the North: Latin America and the External Deterioration Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Washington, DC October 2008 Chief Economist Office Latin America and the Caribbean Region
More informationECB LTRO Dec Greece program
International Monetary Fund June 9, 212 Euro Area Crisis: Still in the Danger Zone */ Emil Stavrev Research Department ( */ Views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationUniversity of Pennsylvania & NBER. This paper reflects only the authors views, and not those of the IMF
An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise Enrique G. Mendoza University of Pennsylvania & NBER Marco E. Terrones IMF This paper reflects only the authors views, and not those of the IMF Motivation and
More informationSituación España 1T16. 1 st QUARTER. Situación. Españ. Economic Outlook. Latin America
Situación España 1T16 Situación 1 st QUARTER Españ Economic Outlook Latin America Latam outlook / February The global economy will continue to grow. but more slowly and with more risks. Uncertainty about
More informationOECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Presentation to LUISS 10 April 2017 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Key messages Global
More informationProspects for the Region
Prospects for the Region OECD South Caucasus and Ukraine Initiative Workshop on Financial Market Development Warsaw, November 17, 29 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern
More informationLatin American Economic Perspectives LASOS 2017 October 18, Hotel Intercontinental Buenos Aires, Argentina
Latin American Economic Perspectives LASOS 7 October 8, Hotel Intercontinental Buenos Aires, Argentina Gustavo Cañonero Partner & Director, Grupo SBS AGENDA I. Recent economic trends in LA II. The good,
More informationAndean Region Fixed Income Weekly June 1 st 2017
Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly June 1 st 2017 What s inside Colombia... P.2 Market View.... P.2 Colombia s Topic of the Week... P.3 Indicative Prices... P.3 Peru... P.4 Market View.... P.4 Peru s Topic
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationFiscal Policy and Economic Growth
Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth Vitor Gaspar Director, Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund Peterson Institute for International Economics June 3, 15 Background The study draws on an
More informationCapital flows: Monitoring Risks to Financial Stability. Luis Opazo Financial Policy Division Central Bank of Chile
Capital flows: Monitoring Risks to Financial Stability Luis Opazo Financial Policy Division Central Bank of Chile CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE NOVEMBER 211 Sources of Risk Potential sources of risk In the global
More informationMDGs Example from Latin America
Financing strategies to achieve the MDGs Example from Latin America Workshop Tunis 21-24 24 January,, 2008 Rob Vos Director Development Policy and Analysis Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs
More informationLatin America Outlook 2Q18
BBVA Research - Latin America Outlook 2Q18 / 1 Latin America Outlook 2Q18 April Key messages Global growth remains robust., although uncertainty is increasing. US fiscal stimulus may underpin progress
More informationFinancing strategies to achieve the MDGs in Latin America and the Caribbean
UNDP UN-DESA UN-ESCAP Financing strategies to achieve the MDGs in Latin America and the Caribbean Rob Vos (UN-DESA/DPAD) Presentation prepared for the inception and training workshop of the project Assessing
More informationWorld Economic and Financial Surveys. Regional Economic Outlook. Western Hemisphere. An Uneven Recovery OCT
World Economic and Financial Surveys Regional Economic Outlook Western Hemisphere An Uneven Recovery OCT 18 I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D 218 International Monetary Fund Cataloging-in-Publication
More informationREVIEW UNDER THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE ARRANGEMENT PRESS RELEASE AND STAFF REPORT
November 215 MEXICO IMF Country Report No. 15/322 REVIEW UNDER THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE ARRANGEMENT PRESS RELEASE AND STAFF REPORT In the context of the Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement,
More information2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE Boosting productivity and quality jobs Santiago, 26 February 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-chile.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Convergence has been impressive
More informationRetirement readiness: a challenge for pension systems in Latin America
Retirement readiness: a challenge for pension systems in Latin America David Tuesta Chief Economist, Pension Unit November 3rd, 2010 OECD-IOPS Global Forum Sydney-Australia, November 2nd - 3rd 2010 Contents
More informationOutlook for the Mexican Economy Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México. April, 2018
Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México April, Outline 1 External Conditions Current Outlook.1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants in Mexico Evolution of Economic Activity Recent
More informationProductivity and income differences in the 20 th century
Productivity and income differences in the 20 th century Robert Inklaar and Daniel Gallardo Albarrán (University of Groningen) World KLEMS Conference, June 4 5 2018 Development accounting What can account
More informationBond Basics July 2007
Bond Basics: Emerging Market (External and Local Markets) Developing economies around the world, known to investors as emerging markets (EM), are rapidly maturing into key players in the global economy
More informationEntrepreneurship at a Glance 2018 Highlights
Entrepreneurship at a Glance 218 Highlights OECD Entrepreneurship at a Glance Highlights 218 SDD 1 October 218 List of figures ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND BUSINESS STATISTICS DATABASES 218 UPDATE 2 1. New enterprise
More informationPERSPECTIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA EL AÑO 2019
PERSPECTIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA EL AÑO 2019 Asamblea Annual FELABAN Noviembre 2018 Maria Paola Figueroa, Economista Senior, LATAM Research Multiple Shocks Monetary policy normalization in the G-3. Trade &
More informationNegative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications
Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications November 4, 216 Marc Stocker Based on a recently published CEPR / World Bank Working Paper Disclaimer! The views presented here are those of the
More informationSpillovers from Dollar Appreciation
June 6-7, 216 International Monetary Fund Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation Florence Jaumotte (with J. Chow, S.G. Park, and S. Zhang) Motivation Context: appreciation of US Dollar changing growth differentials,
More informationEmerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals
For professional use only Not for Public distribution Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals November 2012 Kevin Daly, Senior Portfolio Manager EMD Aberdeen Asset Management Table
More informationDomestic Capital Markets and Financial Integration: Issues and Challenges
Domestic Capital Markets and Financial Integration: Issues and Challenges Guillermo Perry with Augusto de la Torre and Sergio Schmukler X LAC Meets the Market Washington D.C. April 2005 Intensity of Reforms
More informationCentral Banking during the Crisis: Performance and Challenges in La8n America José De Gregorio Universidad de Chile October 2013
Central Banking during the Crisis: Performance and Challenges in La8n America José De Gregorio Universidad de Chile October 213 * Presented at the conference Central Bank Independence Progress and Challenges,
More informationDiscussion of Bacchetta & Benhima paper The Demand for Liquid Assets and International Capital Flows
Discussion of Bacchetta & Benhima paper The Demand for Liquid Assets and International Capital Flows Marcel Fratzscher European Central Bank Conference Financial Globalization: Shifting Balances Banco
More informationUruguay: Macroeconomic Outlook and Financing Strategies for February 1 st, 2018
Uruguay: Macroeconomic Outlook and Financing Strategies for 2018 February 1 st, 2018 Key Highlights of the Uruguayan Economy 1. Robust macroeconomic performance and better outlook for the region 2. Decelerating
More informationShaping the Future of Central Banks Session I: Navigating Normalization
Bank of Thailand OMFIF High-level Seminar Shaping the Future of Central Banks Session I: Navigating Normalization Mario Marcel Central Bank of Chile October 9, 218 1 Central Bank of Chile Issues for discussion
More information