Macro Strategy 21 April 2016

Transcription

1 The UAE as a global trade hub Macro Strategy 21 April 2016 Development of the UAE s trade sector has made the GCC (Gulf Co-Operation Council) member an undisputed regional trade champion and services hub. The UAE has clearly set its aspiration far beyond the region however, as it plans to ascend to the global scene where it already has a strong foot print as a significant enabler of global trade. The development of the UAE as global trade hub is now drawing on the combined strengths of the different emirates of the federation. Dubai which has clearly been the nerve center of trade in the UAE, GCC and wider region, will continue to grow and develop its infrastructure of air and sea ports, strengthening immediate links and building new ones across different geographic footprints. Abu Dhabi, the capital is rapidly developing new industrial and hi-tech sectors supplementing them with port and free zone capabilities as to pushes ahead with diversification plans. In the northern emirates the development of new ports such as Fujairah on the eastern seaboard of the UAE and new free zones across the emirates of Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah, Umm al Quwain and Ajman are offering investors a diverse choice of hubs in the UAE. The growth of the UAE as a global trade hub will take strength from a number of supporting trends. First growing trade in the immediate region continues to offer opportunities, especially as the GCC continues to invest in infrastructure development and diversification. Developing and growing trade with Africa is another important theme, where the UAE sits as regional trade corridor between China and Africa powered by its infrastructure, its large and growing base of Chinese companies, its proximity and maritime routes to east Africa. Thirdly the much discussed new China Silk Route plays into the strength of the UAE, with top officials in the UAE and China announcing their willingness to work on restoring the silk route. The UAE is China s largest trade partner in the region, as it is for India and trade with both countries is booming. Underpinning the UAE s drive to boost its trade sector is the urgent need to diversify its economy away from oil and gas. Dubai, now derives less than 5% of its GDP from oil and gas and the trade sector accounts for up to 28.4% of GDP. The UAE has succeeded in building efficient institutions around its services sector, supplementing it by building world class integrated infrastructure. It is the integration of different services offerings, from a world class air hub, globally connected sea port hubs, and depth of business and financial services hubs that drive the success of the UAE. The challenge for the UAE in the long run is to manage the growth of a more global footprint of economies with which it trades. DUBAI GDP BREAKDOWN CHART Shady Shaher Elborno Head of Macro Strategy ShadyB@emiratesnbd.com Mohammed Ali Al-Tajir Research Analyst MohammedTAJ@emiratesnbd.com Construction 7.2% Manufacturing 11.1% Trade, 28.4% Other, 14.7% Services, 38.6% Transport & Storage, 15.8% Real Estate & Business, 15.2% Social & Personal, 2.2% Hospitality, 5.4% Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, Emirates NBD Research

2 AED Bn The region s undisputed trade hub The UAE and its Dubai trade hub have established themselves as the trade nerve center of the region. Dubai s ports alone handle close to 55% of cross GCC trade. For almost three decades the UAE through its regional trade hub Dubai has excelled in building substantial air and sea port capacity, supplementing it with tax free trade zones. This has attracted business looking for a hub that can service their businesses logistics, transport, and services need throughout the region. Dubai s trade with the GCC region is robust. Latest data released by the Dubai Custom s authority highlights trade dynamics for the first 9 months on 2015 showing resilience, in spite of challenging condition s for the region s hydrocarbon sector. The data shows that the total value of Dubai s trade with the GCC for the first 9 months on 2015 was up 8% to 96.19bn compared to the same period in Saudi Arabia is Dubai s largest trading partner in the GCC representing 46.4% of trade with the region. For the same 9 months period to 2015 Dubai s non-oil trade with Saudi Arabia was worth AED billion a 12% increase from AED 40bn for the same period of The Dubai Chamber of Commerce estimates that total exports and re-exports (both oil and non-oil) between Dubai Chamber members and GCC countries expanded 10 fold from AED 17bn to AED 180bn over the last 15 years. To better comprehend the nature of trade dynamics in the GCC region, it is important to understand what drives them. Governments across the region have been investing heavily in infrastructure and diversification, especially over the last decade. These investments underlie the urgent need to diversify economies away from oil and gas and deal with the region s young growing populace. Almost 40% of the MENA region s population are below the age of 25 and population growth rates in some countries could likely reach 50% over a the next decade. The region is dealing with the growing demographic footprint through diversification to create jobs and also addressing infrastructure needs. The long term goal is to build economies around more sustainable less volatile sectors, and reduce the region s dependence on hydrocarbons which account for almost 90% of exports. DUBAI GENERAL TRADE GROWTH Source: Dubai Customs, Emirates NBD Research Page 2

3 Given Dubai s lead in ports and logistics infrastructure, it plays a key role in channeling and enabling the flow of trade through the region. More than 55% of goods moving through the region for infrastructure or diversification projects make their way through Dubai s ports and are re-exported across the region using Dubai s large logistics services base of companies. While projects for new ports and expansion projects of existing ports have been moving ahead throughout the region, we believe Dubai will retain its lead as the region s key trade hub. This is due to its clear lead in existing capacity, and the critical mass of trade business that operate hubs for the region and beyond out of Dubai. In the long run the development of ports in the region will only support Dubai s role and create more efficient trade routes through the region, with Dubai being a key hub and other ports acting as satellites. Dubai s ports are increasingly becoming more exposed to global trade. Given the weakness in the global economy and challenging conditions in global trade in 2015, Dubai s trade sector experienced challenging dynamics. Dubai s non-oil foreign trade contracted by 3.7%, to trillion from trillion in Given Dubai s strong interconnectivity to global trade it cannot be isolated from global trade currents. However we would point out that Dubai s is better insulated given it s growing exposure to markets in Africa and it s still strong links to the GCC, where demand for capital goods in the case of the latter continue to remain resilient. The outlook for investment in infrastructure in the GCC, and thus trade flow dynamics in the region is likely to be resilient. Over the past decade we estimate the region has spent between USD bn on infrastructure related projects. In 2014 almost USD 86bn of infrastructure projects where awarded in the region, while 2015 we estimate almost USD 90bn of projects where awarded. We expect that over the next 5 years spending levels on infrastructure will be maintained at or around current levels despite the falling oil price, as there is need to deliver on more infrastructure to cope with medium and long run population dynamics. Thus even in an environment of weaker global trade and lower oil prices these trends are supportive of overall trade growth, with Dubai and other ports in the UAE standing to benefit. Dubai s trade with GCC first 9 months of 2015 (Total AED 96 Bn) 19% 7% 47% 12% 15% Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Source: Dubai Customs, Emirates NBD Research Page 3

4 Growing links with Africa Dubai is rapidly emerging as a key trade hub for Africa. The growth of trade with Africa, reflects the emirate s drive to diversify its trade footprint beyond the immediate region. We see the move to expanding trade with Africa as having a largely positive impact for Dubai s trade sector supported at one end by positive dynamics ranging from population growth to rapidly expanding African economies, and limited by infrastructural and legislative challenges in that continent. More important will be how Dubai can play a role as a natural trade corridor for funneling trade between China and Africa. As of the latest available figures from Dubai customs, the value of Dubai s foreign trade with Africa amounted to AED118 billion in 2014, imports amounted to AED 60.8bn, exports AED13.7bn, and re-exports to AED44bn. Africa now accounts for 9% of Dubai s trade volume up from 1% a decade earlier. The growth of Dubai s trade with Africa, is driven by a number of factors ranging from re-exports to direct trade. Dubai s developed port infrastructure, the large base of Chinese and Asian companies with regional hubs out of Dubai, strong air links by UAE carriers into many markets in Africa has been a driving force of that trade boom. Policy makers in the UAE have been taking a number of steps to further strengthen cross border trade with Africa. The Dubai Chamber Of Commerce has already two offices opened in Africa, Addis Ababa in Ethiopia and Accra in Ghana, and will open further two office in Nairobi in Kenya and Maputo in Mozambique before the end of this year. The chamber has been leading a push for growing trade with Africa, citing Africa as the fastest growing market group for the emirate of Dubai. Investments into Africa from the UAE are also growing. The UAE contributed 6% of total capital expenditures of USD 54billion of FDI flows into Africa according to the World Investment Report 2015 by UNCTAD. In 2014 investors from Abu Dhabi committed to be part of USD 16bn of transport projects in West Africa, as part of an effort to revive the region s infrastructure. Dubai trade by continent 2014 Source: Dubai Customs, Emirates NBD Research Page 4

5 Billions Companies from the UAE already have well established links with Africa and are growing their business footprint across the continent. Dubai s Port operator DP World has five terminals in Africa in Algeria, Djibouti, Mozambique, and Senegal employing almost 3000 people. It highlights Africa as one of the fastest growing segments of its terminal portfolio. Dubai s Emirates Airlines plans to increase its investments in its Africa fleet from USD 7bn to USD 12bn in the next few years. Emirates plans to grow its Africa capacity by 40%, adding 10 new routes to the current 22 over the next decade and raising its passenger capacity by 8.5 million seats by The airline highlighted expectations for similar growth in air cargo traffic. This combination of investments in expanding air and sea port links will further supplement, support and nourish trade flows. Developing the Africa-Asia trade corridor through Dubai is another important element in the UAE s long term aspirations for establishing itself as key trade hub beyond the immediate region. The UAE has been seeking to develop itself as an axis for cross footprint trade between Africa and Asia, especially China. The strong and growing maritime routes trade between the UAE and markets especially in East Africa, means that the UAE can compete with other hubs in Africa like Johannesburg in channeling trade flows. The large base of companies from China in the UAE s free zones for example, means African traders can access Chinese good through the UAE s markets and use its logistics infrastructure to move goods to their respective markets in Africa. Diversifying the UAE s trade footprint into Africa presents one of the strongest opportunities for the country s trade sector. Yet a number of challenges exist. Infrastructure bottlenecks, legislative and governance challenges, are probably the two key difficulties that constrain optimal development of trade with the continent. Difficulties with and shortages of inter African transport networks means trade flows across Africa are inefficient, and this increases both costs and reduces efficiencies. Investments from the region into Africa s infrastructure could prove to be a solution, as commitments have been made in the past. Yet legislative challenges and corporate governance inefficiency need to be overcome to induce confidence and attract investments. UAE Trade with Eastern and Southern Africa Markets (COMESA) - First 6 Months of 2014 vs 2015 AED AED AED AED 8.00 AED 6.00 AED 4.00 AED 2.00 AED 0.00 Imports Non-Hydrocarbon Exports Re-exports H H Source: FCSA UAE, Emirates NBD Research Page 5

6 Cementing and growing trade with Asia Asia as a block represents the UAE s largest trading partner. Policy makers in the UAE at the highest level fully understand the importance of the region that pulls in most of the UAE s hydrocarbon exports and has become the largest nonoil trading partner for the UAE. China and India alone account for almost 24% of total UAE trade. This is a fact that has not gone unnoticed. The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited India earlier this year following another high level visit to China in December of The visits sought to highlight importance of both countries as the largest trade partners for the UAE, helping boost the relations across different facets ranging from political, cultural, security and further driving trade growth. Trade between the UAE and its key partners in Asia is evolving. The nature of trade with India is evolving from a relationship that was built largely on re-export of gold from Dubai into an economic relationship axed around India s position as a global services hub, with growth in trade of a more diversified basket of goods. China s trade with the UAE has expanded exponentially and the nature of trade continues to evolve in line with China s rise as a global export superpower. Trade with Japan and South Korea also remains extremely strong and both countries offer the UAE high value exports and are key importers of the UAE s oil. India is the UAE s largest non-oil trade partner accounting for almost 9.8% of non-oil trade. The total volume of foreign trade between both countries reached USD 60 billion in 2014 and this is very likely to expand further possibly reaching USD 100bn by The UAE is also India s largest trading partner and investor in the MENA region, and India is the 2 nd largest FDI investor into the UAE. The UAE s port operator DP world runs almost 35% of India s container terminals, giving a further boost to cementing the growth of trade with the UAE. Furthermore the UAE is home to a very significant Indian expat population (the largest of the UAE) and could be termed as a regional hub for Indian businesses in the GCC. Dubai Top Trade Partners % 8% 13% 73% USA India China Rest of World Source: Dubai Customs, Emirates NBD Research Page 6

7 USD Mn The growth of China s trade links with the UAE and rise of China as one of the UAE s key partners in the political spheres reflects the changing global dynamics that saw the emergence of China as one of the world s fastest growing economic and political superpowers. The UAE is the base to almost 4500 Chinese companies that operate regional trade activates out of the UAE benefiting from its ports and logistics infrastructure, and servicing growing demand from the region and Africa. Bilateral trade between the UAE and China has expanded form USD 63 million in 1984 to almost USD 59 billion today. On his visit last December to China, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan along with Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a USD 10 billion strategic fund, that will support a number of investments supporting the Chinese One Belt, One Road strategic initiative. India UAE Trade Source: Department of Commerce, New Delhi, Emirates NBD Research China s new Silk Route initiative unveiled in October 2013 seeks to build on China s historic silk route by developing an economic land belt that will connect Central and West Asia, the Middle East and Europe as well as a maritime belt that will link China s ports with the African Coast, Suez Canal and Mediterranean. His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during his visit to China emphasized the UAE willingness to help restore that historic silk route. Given the UAE s natural position as hub into the immediate and near region, we expect to see it playing a crucial role in linking China into many of the economies on its land and maritime belt aspirations. South Korea and Japan are also considered to be among the UAE s most important trade partners. Two way trade between the UAE and Japan has traditionally been strong driven by the UAE s exports of oil to Japan. The UAE accounts for almost 23% of Japan s trade with the Middle East. Imports from Japan have been centered on high value goods ranging from cars to advance electronics and continue to be dominated by them. South Korea is already a key partner to many key projects in the UAE including construction of the country s first nuclear power plant. The growth of trade between the UAE and Asia reflects the maturity of economies from Asia and the increasing breadth, depth and sophistication of their tradeable goods. Given its natural position as an axis into the region the UAE will retain and grow its important role as a partner to Asian trade in the region and beyond. Page 7

8 Final thoughts. Building bridges and connections across regions seems to be an underlying theme in the future outlook for the UAE economy. A theme that is reflected in the UAE s successful bid to host EXPO 2020 in Dubai. The UAE can certainly boast a lot of credentials in support. It has by far the region s largest sea port in Jebel Ali, considered to be among the 10 largest in the globe. Dubai International Airport moves more international passengers than any other airport in the world. The UAE s soft infrastructure from ease of setting up business to the efficiency of its institutions make it among the most competitive in the region. The integration of all the different factors drive s the UAE s success. The question for the UAE is what more can it do to sustain existing gains. Three developments need to take place for the UAE to sustain and accelerate its role as a regional global trade hub. First infrastructure development needs to build on complementing strengths. Integration of infrastructure capabilities and working on creating complementing synergies will be key. Etihad rail is one project that is like to support capacity integration across the emirates of the UAE through facilitating cross emirate freight. Second soft infrastructure development needs to keep pushing ahead. The UAE has done very well in rising up the ranks of global competiveness indices, but further steps to strengthening legal framework will further complement existing gains. Finally maintaining the cost competitive advantage of the UAE versus new upcoming hubs will be key for the UAE to maintain it lead as a regional trade and services hub. Page 8

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