Russian Natural Gas Canadian Tar Sands Offshore Drilling
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- Kerrie Turner
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1 Russian Natural Gas Canadian Tar Sands Offshore Drilling By Kurt H. Wulff Springfield, Massachusetts February 15, 2006
2 Summary and Recommendation Buy Gazprom (OGZPF) Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) Devon Energy (DVN), Encore Acquisition (EAC), ConocoPhillips (COP) Why Global Growth Commodity Price Upside 2010 Oil $150 a barrel Natural Gas $30 a mmbtu
3 Global Growth China, India, Eastern Europe Race for Resources Environmental Quality
4 World Energy Demand Million Barrels Equivalent Daily Total Natural Gas Oil Coal Hydro/Nuclear Biomass
5 Supply Dynamics Close to peak oil production Two-thirds of peak natural gas production Half world oil and gas reserves in five countries Russia has more natural gas than Saudi Arabia has oil
6 World Oil and Gas Reserves Billion Barrels Equivalent Natural Gas Oil Total Russia Saudi Arabia Iran Qatar Iraq
7 Large Fields Peaked Wall Street Journal 2/9/06
8 Refining Expands Oil Supply Light Sweet Supply Most Valuable Refining Upgrades Heavy Sour Need Refining Capacity for Oil Sands
9 LNG Expands Natural Gas Supply (million barrels daily) Asia % % Europe % % U.S % % % % Source: International Energy Agency, Oil and Gas Journal, McDep Associates
10 Cleanest Fuel and Total Energy (Million Barrels Equivalent Daily) 2015 Total Energy Conventional Natural Gas Liquefied Natural Gas
11 Six-Year Commodity Price Meter Indicator of Resource Value Trend Oil 40 week North American Gas 40 wk Dollars per Barrel /29/03 3/29/04 6/28/04 9/27/04 12/27/04 3/28/05 6/27/05 9/26/05 12/23/ Dollars per Million Btu
12 Oil/Natural Gas Futures Natural Gas/Oil (mcf/bbl) 12/28/2001 3/28/2002 6/28/2002 9/28/ /28/2002 3/28/2003 6/28/2003 9/28/ /28/2003 3/28/2004 6/28/2004 9/28/ /28/2004 3/28/2005 6/28/2005 9/28/ /28/2005 Six-Year One-Year
13 One-Year Refining Crack Meter Indicator(?) of Refining Cash Flow and Earnings Trend New York 40 week /6/2006 1/6/2004 4/6/2004 7/6/ /6/2004 1/6/2005 4/6/2005 7/6/ /6/2005 Dollars Per Barrel
14 Canadian Tar Sands World Conventional Oil Reserves 1.2 Trillion Barrels Recoverable Canadian Oil Sands 175 Billion Barrels World Oil Production 84 Million Barrels Daily Canadian Oil Sands Production 1 mmbd Now, 2.7 mmbd 2015
15
16 Russian Natural Gas Underpriced (Dollars a mmbtu) Six-Year Oil Equivalent Six-Year NG Futures Gazprom to Europe Gazprom to Ukraine Gazprom to Russia
17 Ukraine Siphons Russian Gas
18 Oil Spill Ignited Environmentalism I am amazed at the publicity for the loss of a few birds. Fred L. Hartley, Santa Barbara, California, 1969 Focus Today on Coal Global Warming Mercury Untold Carcinogens
19 Coal: Environmental Target We burn too much coal The dirty fuel is 24% of primary energy Coal should be gasified, not burned Displacing coal a high value use of oil and natural gas
20 McDep Energy Stock Groups Million Dollars Market Cap Mega Cap Producer/Refiner Large Cap Producer Small Cap Producer Income
21 McDep Energy Stocks Domicile U.S. Canada Europe China Russia
22 Business Concentration (Percent) Natural Gas Oil Downstream ConocoPhillips Gazprom 100 * * Devon Energy Encore Acquisition Canadian Oil Sands Trust * 100 *
23 McDep Ratio Market Cap and Debt Present Value Mc Market Cap De Debt p Present Value of Natural Gas, Oil and Downstream Buy Low, Sell High
24 Producer/Refiner Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI S Imperial Oil Limited (30%) IMO B Petro-Canada PCZ B Suncor Energy SU B Marathon Oil Corporation MRO B Norsk Hydro ASA NHY B PetroChina Company Ltd (1 PTR B Lukoil Oil Company LUKOY B Gazprom (50%) OGZPF B Total or Median
25 Gazprom (OGZPF) Produces 90% of Russian Natural Gas Price Controls Fading Away Multi-Fold Gain Characteristics Enterprise Value Now $200 billion Next Twelve Months Cash Flow - $32 billion Unlevered Multiple 6.2 times Natural Gas Price, Cash Flow, Could be 3-4x Long Life Could Double Multiple
26 Gazprom (OGZPF), cont d Ownership Aligned Government 51% A Million Russian Stockholders World s Largest Energy Stock Potentially Up to 35% to trade as American Depositary Receipts Ten-fold index weighting increase ahead Mr. Putin Chairman 2009?
27 Large Cap Independent Producer Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio CNOOC Limited (29%) CEO B XTO Energy Inc. XTO B Encana Corporation ECA B Burlington Resources BR B Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY B Devon Energy Corporation DVN B Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC B Total or Median
28 Devon Energy (DVN) Burlington Resources Peer Managed by Founder (1973) Net Present Value Presumes $50 Oil $10 Natural Gas Adjusted Reserve Life 8.6 Years Unlevered Cash Flow Multiple 3.9 times 64% Natural Gas, 36% Oil
29 Small Cap Independent Producer Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio Berry Petroleum Company BRY B Encore Acquisition CompanEAC B Energy Partners Ltd. EPL B Cimarex Energy Company XEC B Total or Median
30 Encore Acquisition Company (EAC) Tertiary Recovery May Double Reserves Chairman Founder Past Success with Southland Royalty, San Juan Basin Royalty Trust, Permian Basin Royalty Trust, Cross Timbers Oil Company (now XTO Energy) and Cross Timbers Royalty Trust Enterprise Value $2.2 billion Adjusted Reserve Life 14.3 Years Unlevered Cash Flow Multiple 5.1 times
31 Mega Cap Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio Mega Cap BP plc BP B Total S.A. TOT B Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM B Royal Dutch Shell plc RDS-A B ConocoPhillips COP B Chevron Corporation CVX B Total or Median
32 ConocoPhillips (COP) Natural Gas, Oil, Downstream 30,43,28 Includes Burlington Resources Low McDep Ratio 0.70 Long Life: Adjusted R/P 10.9 years Low Unlevered Cash Flow Multiple 4.1 Breakthrough CEO Largest San Juan Natural Gas Producer
33 Energy Income Stocks Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio Kinder Morgan Energy PartnKMP S Kinder Morgan Managemen KMR S Enerplus Resources Fund ERF Pengrowth Energy Trust PGH Penn West Energy Trust PWTFF B San Juan Basin Royalty TrusSJT Canadian Oil Sands Trust (UCOSWF B Total or Median
34 Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) 35.5% Syncrude, Largest Oil Sands Plant Volume Expanding Now , , mbd Net Present Value Sensitive to Oil Price $50 oil, $136 NPV, $60 oil, $177 NPV Distribution C$12/unit 2007, 8+% yield Ultimate Volume 500 mbd for Thirty Years
35 Intellectual Challenges Politics Economics Engineering Science Geography Sociology Art Finance
36 Second in a Lifetime Opportunity Engineer with Chevron in San Francisco Studied UK Market for North Sea Natural Gas Wall Street 1971 San Juan Basin Natural Gas Producers Marathon, Cities Service, Getty, Gulf Takeovers Hugoton Natural Gas Producers déjà vu San Juan, Canada, China, Russia
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Cenovus Energy (CVE) Same Stock Price, Twice the Production Symbol CVE Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/15 (US$mm) 3,500 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 10 Price (US$/sh) 24.14 Natural
More informationOil At 2002 High. Six-Year and One-Year Natural Gas and Oil Futures. 72 Month Natural Gas 12 Month Natural Gas 72 Month Oil 12 Month Oil 4/18/02
Oil At 2002 High Summary and Recommendation Crude oil prices at new highs for the year mean profits for investors in our oil recommendations including Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS_u.TO) and CNOOC Ltd
More informationPipeline Partnership Take Under
Pipeline Partnership Take Under Summary and Recommendation Valuation risk appears to be mounting in "high greed" pipeline partnerships. The price paid by private equity buyers for the general partner (GP)
More informationMeter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio September 17, 2001 WAR
WAR Summary In sympathy to the pain and suffering we all feel for the loss of life in the Attack on America we make no reference to stocks as recommendations in our commentary this week. Yet we do carry
More informationMeter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks October 21, 2014
Cimarex Energy (XEC) Strong Independent Producer Meter Reader Symbol XEC Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/15 (US$mm) 1,646 Rating Contrarian Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 30 Price ($/sh)
More informationMeter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks September 16, 2014
Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDSA) Ben s Growth Strategy Symbol RDS-A Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/15 (US$mm) 54,400 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 3 Price (US$/sh) 77.69 Natural Gas and
More informationMeter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks July 1, 2014
Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. (COSWF) Returning to Favor Symbol COSWF Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/15 (US$mm) 2,020 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 0 Price (US$/share) 22.66 Natural
More informationIndustry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks Intraday July 30, 2018
Durable Cash Generators CVX, RDS, SU, XOM Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 30-Jul Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda Ebitda NTM Ratio 2018 (US$mm) ($mm)
More informationMeter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks November 12, 2013
Cimarex Energy (XEC) Raise NPV to $125 on Permian Productivity Symbol XEC Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/14 (US$mm) 1,509 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 24 Price ($/sh) 105.10
More informationIndependent Stock Idea Intraday August 7, 2018
Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP) Q2 on Trend Independent Stock Idea Symbol DMLP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/19 (US$mm) 66 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 43 Price (US$/sh) 18.45 Natural Gas and
More informationMeter Reader Special Mid-Year Ranking of Oil and Gas Stocks July 2, 2018
Outperformance in First Half 2018 Attractive Value, Auspicious Momentum Summary and Recommendation After outperforming in the first half of 2018, oil and gas stocks stay at attractive value with the median
More informationLow Fee, Low Debt Stands Out
Low Fee, Low Debt Stands Out Summary and Recommendation Two standout income stocks each had a big week fundamentally. Buy recommended Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS_u.TO) expands its ownership in the Syncrude
More informationIndustry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks August 20, 2018
Small Independents Strategic Value, Uncertain Price BIREF, CRC, RRC, WLL Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 20-Aug Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda Ebitda
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