Programme-Based Budgeting in Kenya: Past challenges and way forward for 2015/16. Vivian Magero Jason Lakin, Ph.D.

Transcription

1 Programme-Based Budgeting in Kenya: Past challenges and way forward for 2015/16 Vivian Magero Jason Lakin, Ph.D.

2 Background National government shifted from line-item to program-based budgeting in 2013/14 (following international best practice and PFM Act) First year was challenging.but in 2014/15, Kenya made big improvements in its PBB presentation. Still a number of challenges Question: have we built on successes and addressed challenges of 2014/15 in 2015/16?

3 What is a PBB? Budget organized around a set of programs What is a program? A group of government activities that help to achieve a common objective Example: Crime Prevention Program Objective of CPP: "Reduced crime and greater security of persons and property CPP might then include various activities related to policing, security cameras, etc. requiring both recurrent and capital, staff, etc.

4 A good PBB Focuses on outputs and service delivery objectives of spending, not inputs. Has substantive narrative link between inputs and outputs and explanation of changing priorities Is arranged around a set of programs with clear and specific objectives, not just administrative units Is usually broken down further into subprograms to provide clearer information about activities and objectives Program performance measured through clear indicators and targets with credible baselines and timelines.

5 Has Kenya s PBB improved budget presentation and transparency?

6 Kenya s 2012/13 Line item budget Focused on inputs only, like fuel and stationery Limited or no narrative explanation and link between inputs and outputs Ministries defined by administrative units, no programs or subprograms No measures of performance (indicators and targets)

7 Kenya s 2013/14 PBB Eliminated certain information e.g. wage information, key personnel and job groups Inadequate narrative information on programs, unclear links between narrative and budget figures Limited number of programs, no subprograms and unclear objectives Some indicators and targets lacked actual figures, had no clear timelines or baselines Difficult to understand how public money used to generate things we care about

8 Kenya s 2014/15 PBB: Major Improvements Revised PBB format, rectified a number of flaws. Substantive narrative information available in many areas Increased number of programs with somewhat clearer objectives Introduction of subprograms, broken down further into economic classification Improved presentation of indicators and targets Additional documents available to clarify PBB

9 Despite achievements, 2014/15 PBB lacked: Narrative clearly linking priorities and budget allocations Clear and distinct program objectives (program objectives overlap) Clear/sensible targets and baselines (e.g. % of facility based maternal deaths had a target of 100%) Clear economic classifications (e.g. use of other development for major spending) Information on key personnel and costs that was available in old format Any information on Appropriations in Aid (eliminated completely information on external funding)

10 Kenya s 2015/16 PBB: Overview On balance: minor improvements, but lack of explanation for changes leads to confusion Reorganization of programs and subprograms, leading to more logical presentation but confusion about changing allocations Reorganization of indicators and targets leading to improved focus, but also confusion as certain indicators have disappeared without explanation So.some challenges to be able to compare with last year s budget

11 2015/16 PBB: Overview Continued Improvement in comparability over time with inclusion of column for 2014/15 approved budget Narrative is similar to 2014/15; weak connection to budget numbers Program objectives have improved, but still challenges Indicators and targets are improved, but still lack baselines that allow us to track if money=improving services Vague economic classifications still major share of spending Information on wage costs and Appropriations in Aid still missing

12 2014/15 vs 2015/16 PBB in Detail Narrative information Programs with clear objectives Indicators/targets Subprograms and further disaggregation Information on key personnel and costs Appropriation in Aid (AiA)

13 Narrative Information

14 Narrative Link to Allocations? 2014/15

15 Narrative links to allocations 2015/16?

16 Narrative challenges continue There is no real explanation of changes in emphasis at program/subprogram level from year to year (why some programs receive larger share than others?) For example, big change in health sector in 2015/16 is increase in funding for Health Policy subprogram, but not mentioned How do proposed initiatives and allocations for the year respond to challenges mentioned each year?

17 Programs with clear and distinct objectives

18 Programs and objectives, 2014/15 and 2015/16

19 Curative health services program 2015/16

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21 Indicators, targets and timelines

22 Indicators/targets and timelines Indicators still have no baselines Some of the indicators/targets that did not make sense dropped. E.g. % maternal facility deaths with target of 100% But some targets still at odds with other government figures In 2014/15 budget, % births conducted by skilled attendant target 44%, but this was below what was already achieved as per other government figures (66% in-facility births) In 2015/16, same issue with Average Length of Stay target at Kenyatta National Hospital: target for 2015/16 is 10.7 Days but sector report says have already achieved this in 2014/15

23 Key Performance Indicators 2014/ /16 From 2014/15 (Above) to 2015/16 (Below) we have lost two indicators

24 Clear subprograms and further disaggregation of allocations

25 Do subprograms have clear objectives? SPs are meant to be further breakdown of programs, so they are meant to align with the objectives of the larger program Neither 2014/15 nor 2015/16 have clear subprogram objectives Many subprograms are not clear, and are not clearly aligned with the program objectives

26 Program: General Administration, Planning & Support Services 2014/15 objective: To improve service delivery and provide supportive function to government agencies under the health sector. 2015/16 objective: To strengthen Leadership, Management, Planning & Financing of the health sector In both years, these program have a subprogram Health Policy, Planning and Financing. What does this SP do to contribute to admin and planning?

27 Subprogram: Health Policy, Planning and Financing 2014/ /16

28 Does the economic breakdown help?

29 Information on personnel costs Still no information about staff, job group, wages or benefits of staff by ministry in 2014/15 or 15/16 This information was present in 2012/13 line item budget as shown in the next slide No breakdown beyond compensation to employees at program/subprogram level

30 2012/13 Line Item Budget

31 Generic economic classification

32 Appropriation in Aid (AiA) AiA includes donor funding and some local funds raised by ministries on their own (user fees, etc.) In 2012/13, extensive information was provided for each ministry, administrative unit on the source, type of donor etc. In 2013/14, information on AIA was provided by program with medium term projections but no breakdown by local v. external, source, or purpose 2014/15 PBB eliminated this information altogether Same in 2015/16 PBB

33 ARE THERE GOOD EXAMPLES FROM COUNTIES IN 2014/15?

34 Consider same aspects of the budget but also project breakdown Narrative quality Program Clarity and distinctness Indicators and targets SP Clarity and further disaggregation Staff information AIA Project information to ward level

35 Narrative: West Pokot example

36 Homa Bay

37 Bungoma: Project breakdown

38 Some challenges at county level in 2014/15 Many of same challenges as national level, but more severe Lack of summary tables in many budgets Weak connection between priorities in narrative and budget numbers Limited breakdown of economic classification Programs have unclear objectives, and lack of clear subprograms makes it difficult to understand what they do and how they do it Main staff costs are improperly classified under administration Indicators and targets are extremely weak, incoherent or simply nonexistent

39 2015/16 County Budgets: Improving? We have looked so far at: Nyeri Taita Taveta Elgeyo Marakwet Lamu Nairobi There are successes and cross cutting issues in these budgets

40 Good practices in 2015/16 County PBBs Summary table at the program level (Lamu, Taita Taveta and Elgeyo Marakwet) Summary table at both the program and subprogram level (Elgeyo Marakwet) Most indicators and targets improved from last year, but still lack baselines Budget broken down into items under programs; combining line item and program provides additional information that is useful (Lamu)

41 Cross cutting issues in 2015/16 County PBBs Narrative is not linked to program allocations or does not explain trends adequately (all counties) Subprograms lack or have no objectives (All counties) Staff put under the Administration program rather than service delivery programs (All counties) No staff breakdown apart from Nyeri county Indicators lack baselines, while some lack targets (Taita Taveta)

42 Recommendations Major programs should be broken down into subprograms, with sufficient detail provided to understand their distinct objectives Narrative details should be improved, particularly to ensure clear link with allocations at program/subprogram level All indicators should be clearly linked to a specific program and to specific program objectives, with baselines and clear and realistic targets

43 Recommendations If there is a shift in programs or subprograms that would affect the indicators and targets over the years, explanation should be provided for the shift. Information on the breakdown of employees should be restored to the budget as per the 2012/13 budget The economic classification could be further broken down for all categories Reduce the use of other recurrent and other development for major spending

44 Thank you