Using an index of 10, tell us how confident you are about the state of the U.S. economy. 17.0% (18) 31.1% (33) 15.1% (16) 14.5% (18) 23.
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1 2009 Economic Survey 1. Using an index of 10, tell us how confident you are about the state of the U.S. economy. 1 very pessimistic very confident rating average response count How confident are you about the next 6 months? 2.8% (3) 7.5% (8) 21.7% (23) 31.1% (33) 15.1% (16) 17.0% (18) 2.8% (3) 1.9% (2) 0.0% (0) 0.0% (0) How confident are you about the next 12 months? 1.6% (2) 3.2% (4) 12.9% (16) 14.5% (18) 16.1% (20) 23.4% (29) 19.4% (24) 4.8% (6) 1.6% (2) 2.4% (3) When do you think the recession will end? Third quarter of % 8 Fourth quarter of % 22 First half of % 48 Second half of % 43 During % Over the next 6 months, which statement will best characterize the U.S. economy? On a downward trend 9.0% 12 Affected by as many negatives as positives 39.8% 53 Stabilizing but flat 42.9% 57 Beginning to improve 8.3% 11 Growing 0.0% 0 4. Over the next 12 months, which statement will best characterize the U.S. economy? On a downward trend 3.1% 4 Affected by as many negatives as positives 13.0% 17 Stabilizing but flat 33.6% 44 Beginning to improve 45.0% 59 Growing 5.3% 7
2 5. What do you consider to be the single greatest threat to economic growth in the next 12 months? Please choose only one. High and/or volatile oil prices 0.0% 0 High and/or volatile commodity prices in general 4.3% 5 Credit crunch, availability of credit 18.1% 21 Lack of liquidity in the financial system 9.5% 11 Corporate and individual defaults 7.8% 9 Inflation 4.3% 5 Deflation 0.0% 0 Contraction of corporate profits 3.4% 4 Contraction in consumer spending 21.6% 25 Continuing housing crisis, foreclosures 6.9% 8 Unemployment 24.1% Do you believe the U.S. has seen the worst of the financial crisis? Yes 71.0% 93 No 29.0% Will more federal intervention be needed? Yes 34.1% 45 No 65.9% 87 Rates and the Dollar 8. Where do you expect the fed funds rate to be 12 months from now? The same 31.1% 41 Up 25 basis points 26.5% 35 Up 50 basis points 31.8% 42 Up more than 50 basis points 10.6% 14
3 9. Has the Fed responded adequately to the economic crisis? Too slow to respond 18.9% 25 Too quick 25.0% 33 Good balance 56.1% Are you concerned about inflation? Not at all 12.1% 16 Somewhat 54.5% 72 Very concerned 33.3% Are you concerned about deflation? Not at all 53.0% 70 Somewhat 46.2% 61 Very concerned 0.8% Do you expect the dollar to be stronger or weaker against the euro over the next 12 months? Weaker 43.2% 57 Stronger 30.3% 40 Remain the same 26.5% Do you expect the dollar to be stronger or weaker against the yen over the next 12 months? Weaker 38.9% 51 Stronger 29.8% 39 Remain the same 31.3% 41
4 Energy and Commodity Prices 14. What do you expect to be the average price of a barrel of benchmark light crude over the next 12 months? Under $60 6.9% 9 $60 to $ % 38 $70 to $ % 61 $80 to $ % 21 Above $ % Do you expect energy costs in the next 6 months To increase 63.6% 84 To decrease 7.6% 10 To stay about the same 28.8% Do you think U.S. energy policy should stress Finding new domestic sources of oil 31.8% 42 Conservation 15.2% 20 Alternative energy sources 53.0% Should global warming be a national priority? Yes 44.7% 59 No 55.3% 73
5 The Economy s Impact on Your Company 18. Is your company s capital investment expected to increase, decrease or stay the same over the next 12 months? Increase 21.7% 28 Decrease 31.0% 40 Remain the same 47.3% Does your company plan additions, reductions or no change to its workforce in the next 12 months? Add to workforce 16.4% 21 Reduce workforce 34.4% 44 No change 49.2% Do you expect your company s operating margins to change over the next 12 months? Shrink 26.6% 34 Grow 31.3% 40 Remain the same 42.2% Do you expect your company s operating costs to change over the next 12 months? Fall 30.0% 39 Rise 33.1% 43 Rise significantly 1.5% 2 Remain the same 35.4% 46
6 22. Please indicate whether your company is planning to expand operations or sales in each emerging BRIC nation during the next 12 months. Small expansion underway Large expansion underway No expansion yet, but under serious review Nothing planned Brazil 16.4% (21) 4.7% (6) 5.5% (7) 73.4% (94) 128 Russia 9.4% (12) 1.6% (2) 5.5% (7) 83.5% (106) 127 India 17.5% (22) 4.8% (6) 6.3% (8) 71.4% (90) 126 China 18.1% (23) 9.4% (12) 7.1% (9) 65.4% (83) Will your company be affected by the slowdown in global markets? Yes 69.0% 89 No 31.0% Do you see the credit crunch beginning to ease? Yes 51.9% 68 No 48.1% 63 The Government s Impact on the Economy 25. Do you expect the Obama administration will have a better shot at dealing with the economic crisis than its predecessor? Very likely 19.2% 25 Somewhat likely 26.2% 34 Possible but unlikely 23.1% 30 Unlikely 31.5% 41
7 26. Do you think the economic stimulus package enacted in February will help the economy? Very likely 12.3% 16 Somewhat likely 40.8% 53 Possible but unlikely 25.4% 33 Unlikely 21.5% Do you think the economic stimulus package will help your company? Very likely 6.9% 9 Somewhat likely 26.2% 34 Possible but unlikely 23.8% 31 Unlikely 43.1% What should be the Obama administration s top priority? Stabilize the financial sector 14.4% 18 Restore public trust in the economy 20.0% 25 Tackle unemployment 18.4% 23 Reduce the national debt 23.2% 29 Reduce significantly the U.S. dependency on oil as an energy source 5.6% 7 Schedule an end to the U.S. military presence in Iraq 0.8% 1 Initiate infrastructure projects 4.8% 6 Address the national healthcare problem 3.2% 4 Fight terrorism 4.0% 5 Address taxes 5.6% Do you agree with proposals to help homeowners avoid foreclosure? Yes 38.3% 49 No 61.7% 79
8 30. How do you expect your company s 2009 annual revenues to compare with its revenues in 2008? Exceed 21.1% 27 Fall short 57.0% 73 Remain about the same 21.9% Your company s 2008 revenues were: Under $500 million 7.0% 9 $500 million to $1 billion 28.1% 36 $1 billion to $5 billion 46.1% 59 Above $5 billion 18.8% 24
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