WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS WEEK 17 VOLUME 1 / ISSUE 8

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Amberly Jackson
5 years ago
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WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS WEEK 17 VOLUME 1 / ISSUE 8 MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE () Based on 5 day and 20 days moving average: following are the indications, Buy Indication No stock Sell

1 WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS WEEK 17 VOLUME 1 / ISSUE 8 MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE () Based on 5 day and 20 days moving average: following are the indications, Buy Indication No stock Sell Indication Citizen Investment Trust Citizen Bank International First Micro Finance Development Bank. Himalayan General Insurance Co. Jyoti Bikas Bank Limited Nadep Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha. Nepal Bangladesh Bank NagBeli LaghuBitta Bikas Bank. Nepal Bank Limited Nepal Investment Bank NMB Hybrid Fund L-1 Rastriya Beema Company Shangrila Development Bank. Sindhu Bikash Bank Swabalamban Bikas Bank Taragaon Regency Hotel 1. ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS INDEX 04/11/2018 Indices Turnover Current Points Change %Change NEPSE 280,206,000 1, (13.70) -1.12% Sensitive 232,895, (2.86) -1.10% Float 280,206, (1.11) -1.25% Sen. Float 232,895, (1.02) -1.25% Banking 169,958,000 1, (17.19) -1.59% Trading Hotels 691,331 1, (5.04) -0.27% Development 16,419,200 1, (7.17) -0.49% Bank Hydropower 11,212,900 1, (10.18) -0.78% Finance 1,858, (3.57) -0.59% Non-Life Ins 6,966,530 5, (65.39) -1.17% Manu.& Pro. 1,156,720 2, (15.23) -0.67% Others 4,200, % Microfinance 11,912,200 1, (8.66) -0.60% Life Ins. 55,830,800 5, (87.52) -1.58% 2. ENVIRONMENT AFFECTING FACTOR Positive Online trading system under final stages Two of the bank s subsidiary applying for broker license Better financial report of Q1 being published by banks Negative Liquidity crisis being seen in the market with few banks stopping loan disbursement The interest rates are showing signs of going upwards again The shares are still in oversupply with plenty of rights coming Festival season so things generally remain slow The investors seems to have negative sentiments towards share market Page 1 of 6

2 3. TECHNICAL ASPECTS a. NEPSE INDEX Candlestick Pattern A large bearish candle followed by doji alike candle The Doji candle indicated a prevailing confusion in the market and the market next trading day took a bigger negative movement. RSI The RSI was moving along the range of 40 to 60 for the past one month and has now broken the lower range Signal line above line with divergence increasing both line moving towards negative region The divergence of the lines indicates the further bearish momentum prevailing in the market moreover, both lines are in negative region indicating prevailing negative sentiments in the market Bollinger Band Bandwidth decreasing and price towards the lower band The reduced gap of the bandwidth suggests the reducing volatility in the market, moreover the price is towards the lower band which could act as a support level. The entire week the market in bearish trend except for a day with small correction. The overall market seems to be in bearish trend and is expected to continue further. The market has broken the stronger support level at 1210 region. If the bears are heavy on the market on next trading day then the market is probable to meet the region. A small correction after the lower end of the Bollinger band is expected and the market doesn t seem to be highly volatile the coming week. A sideways and slight bearish momentum can be expected in the market with a correction probable. Page 2 of 6

b. BANKING INDEX Candlestick Pattern A large bearish candle followed by doji alike candle The Doji candle indicated a prevailing confusion in the market and the market next trading day took a bigger

3 b. BANKING INDEX Candlestick Pattern A large bearish candle followed by doji alike candle The Doji candle indicated a prevailing confusion in the market and the market next trading day took a bigger negative movement. RSI No special pattern observed Signal line above line with divergence increasing both line moving towards negative region The divergence of the lines indicates the further bearish momentum prevailing in the market moreover, both lines are moving towards the negative region. Bollinger Band Bandwidth slightly increasing The increased bandwidth suggest a increase in and price near to the lower band volatility in this sector in coming days, moreover, the prices are moving towards the lower band which could act as a support level. c. LIFE INSURANCE INDEX Candlestick Pattern A large bearish candle following a hammer alike pattern The hammer has reversed the existing bullish momentum in the sector and has taken it into the bearish momentum. RSI 35 The RSI is moving towards the oversold region of 30 which gives a buy signal and a probable reversal of trend Page 3 of 6

A crossover from top with signal line above line and both lines in negative region Bollinger Band Bandwidth slightly increasing and the price crossing the lower band The market is expected to move

4 A crossover from top with signal line above line and both lines in negative region Bollinger Band Bandwidth slightly increasing and the price crossing the lower band The market is expected to move into bearish trend and moreover the prevailing market sentiment in this sector is negative. The market will see an increased volatility and if the volatility doesn t increase then there would be a bounce back of the price level. d. MICROFINANCE INDEX Candlestick Pattern A large bearish candle followed by doji alike candle The Doji candle indicated a prevailing confusion in the market and the market next trading day took a bigger negative movement. RSI The sector is below the line of 30 which indicates this sector has been oversold and there is probable reversal of trend in future Signal line above line with divergence increasing both line moving towards negative region The divergence of the lines indicates the further bearish momentum prevailing in the market moreover, both lines are moving towards the negative region. Bollinger Band Bandwidth slightly uniform and price towards the lower band High volatility in this sector is in coming days is not expected however, the prices are at the lower band which could act as a support level. Page 4 of 6

confidence. The market seems to be in similar sideways and slightly bearish momentum.

5 CONCLUSION The prevailing sentiment in the market seems to be negative. We don t see much enthuisiam as part of the investors. The financial report of Q1 published are comparatively better and might add to the positivity to the market but the prevailing rumors of liquidity crisis and has taken a big damage on the investors confidence. The market seems to be in similar sideways and slightly bearish momentum. Contact Us NIC ASIA Capital Limited 3rd Floor, Siddhartha Insurance Complex Babar Mahal, Kathmandu Tel No: (Hunting Line), , , Fax No: info@nicasiacapital.com Website: STRATEGY Entry to be made at the current level but not 100% of the investments. The market on the first trading day i.e. 5 th November 2018 is to be considered as if the bears get heavy then we would target to buy around 1180 region else if the bears are weak then we probably would increase our investments. Disclaimer: This newsletter is designed to be used as a tutorial or educational purpose only. This information is of a general nature only, so you should seek advice from your investment advisor or others as appropriate before taking any action. NIC ASIA Capital Limited expressly disclaim representation of opinion, thus the information as in should only be used by investor who are aware of risk in securities trading. Furthermore, NIC ASIA Capital does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising in the securities trading from the use of this content. Page 5 of 6

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WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS WEEK 16 VOLUME 1 / ISSUE 7

WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS WEEK 16 VOLUME 1 / ISSUE 7 MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE () Based on 5 day and 20 days moving average: following are the indications, Buy Indication No stock Sell Indication