A Challenging Start To The Year
|
|
- Dwayne Rice
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Ryan Lam, CFA Senior Economist A Challenging Start To The Year Hong Kong s real GDP rose 2.1% in the first quarter of 2015, down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of last year and reflecting the tepid pace of economic recovery. The lacklustre GDP growth has its roots in the disappointing performance of private consumption. One bright spot was the unexpected rebound in investment activity despite lingering concerns over the strength of mainland China s economy. Our view is that most of the shortfall in trade activity relative to our expectations is related to transitory factors such as severe weather conditions and the West Coast port strike in the US. A positive turnaround in trade activity is likely to occur over the coming months. That said, we may see continuing weakness in consumption and service exports for some time. We are reluctant to view this as the beginning of an economic slowdown in Hong Kong. However, after accounting for the soft start to 2015 and weaker-thanexpected tourism flows, we have trimmed our GDP growth forecast for 2015 from 2.6% to 2.4%.
2 A tepid performance The Hong Kong government today released its advance estimate of 2015 firstquarter GDP. Our previous research note 1 highlighted the key themes of faltering trade and weakening private consumption and these remain significant factors in the economy s lacklustre performance in the early part of this year. Hong Kong s Q1 real GDP grew by 2.1% 2, down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, real GDP growth grew by 0.4%, little changed from the 0.2% growth recorded in 2014 Q4. Exhibit 1: Real GDP (% YoY, by expenditure) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Private Consumption Government Consumption Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services Real GDP Source: Census & Statistics Department of HKSAR, Hang Seng Bank Rebalancing underway The sluggish pace of GDP growth has its roots in the disappointing performance of private consumption. It has long been our view that private consumption growth is set to normalise as the supportive factors that boosted spending growth in the past are unlikely to drive growth as much in the years to come. A small sign of relief was the improvement in the balance of trade, and net exports were less of a drag on growth. Another bright spot was the unexpected pickup in investment despite lingering concerns over the strength of mainland China s economy. Softening private consumption. Private consumption lost some steam in Q1, growing by 3.5%, compared with 4.1% in Q4 last year, which marked the second straight quarter of decline in growth. We deployed an empirical model to identify the underlying causes behind the slowdown in consumption. Our analysis suggests a rise in real interest rates due to lower inflation and a pull-back in consumer confidence were holding back private consumption. That said, it is important to note that the softening in consumption was not as dramatic as had been feared, due mainly to the low unemployment rate and continued increases in wages. 1 Hong Kong Economic Outlook 2015: Bumpy Road Ahead, Hang Seng Hong Kong Economic Monthly, November Changes in this report are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated. 2
3 Renewed appetite for investment. The slowdown in the economy would have been sharper were it not for a meaningful pickup in investment activity. Gross fixed capital formation grew by 7.3% in Q1 compared with 3.4% in Q4 last year. Drilling down into this figure, equipment investments reversed four consecutive quarters of decline and grew markedly by 14.2% in Q1. Construction investment, however, shrank by 3.3% due to an unfavourable base effect. Little traction from external demand. Consistent with weak trade data in Korea and Taiwan, Hong Kong exports began 2015 in a soft patch. Growth in exports of goods and services stayed low at 0.2%, after rising by 0.4% in 2014 Q4. The strengthening US dollar played an influencing role, but unfavourable weather and port disruptions in the US were similarly significant factors. The trade balance improved overall, but this was driven more by sharper fall in import growth than accelerating exports. Imports edged up 0.5% after rising by 1.1% in 2014 Q4. Changes in inventories. Inventories appeared to have been liquidated at a relatively brisk pace, taking 1.5 percentage points off 2015 Q1 GDP growth. This marks the first quarterly contraction in inventory since 2014 Q3, which bodes well for growth in coming quarters. Looking ahead The Hong Kong economy has now experienced two straight quarters of decelerating growth for the first time since The key question is how much of this weakness is due to temporary factors. Despite the general pessimism, our view is that most of the shortfall in trade activity relative to our expectations is related to transitory factors such as severe weather conditions and the West Coast port strike in the US, and we do not, therefore, put much weight on the weakness in Q1 exports. On the other hand, financial markets have turned less bullish on the US dollar as the outlook for the US has become less favourable. We are expecting a confluence of factors improving demand from the US as well as a more stable US dollar to boost the city s trade flows over the coming months. If we are interpreting the data correctly, a positive turnaround in trade activity is likely to occur over the coming months. 3
4 However, we may see continuing weakness in consumption and service exports for some time. With recent changes in multiple-entry visa arrangements for Shenzhen residents and the impact of the strengthening Hong Kong dollar, domestic service providers appear to be facing stiff headwinds. It is also currently hard to imagine that private consumption in upcoming quarters will be as strong as it was before 2011, although recent equities gains will provide a buffer for consumption. That said, our view is that growth contributions from consumption are likely to be of secondary importance in the near future, with investment activity and exports of goods taking centre stage. Overall, our opinion is that this is not the start of an economic slowdown in Hong Kong. We remain relatively sanguine over the outlook for the Hong Kong economy, although we do not foresee a breakout in growth as economic headwinds are likely to persist into the second half. Reflecting the soft start to 2015 and the weakerthan-expected tourism flows, we have trimmed our full-year GDP growth forecast for 2015 from 2.6% to 2.4%. 4
5 Disclaimer This document has been issued by Hang Seng Bank Limited ( HASE ) and the information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable and the opinions contained herein are for reference only and may not necessarily represent the view of HASE. The research analyst(s) who prepared this report certifies(y) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the research analyst s(s) personal views about the financial instrument or investments and that no part of his/her/their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report. Nothing herein shall constitute as offers or solicitation of offers to buy or sell foreign exchange contracts, securities, financial instruments or other investments. Re-distribution of any part of this document by any means is strictly prohibited. The information contained in this document may be indicative only and has not been independently verified and no guarantee, representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information, projections or opinions contained in this document or the basis upon which any such projections or opinions have been based and no responsibility or liability is accepted in relation to the use of or reliance on any information, projections or opinions whatsoever contained in this document. Investors must make their own assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information and opinions contained in this document and make such independent investigations as they may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment. All such information, projections and opinions are subject to change without notice. HASE and its affiliates may trade for their own account in, may have underwritten, or may have a position in, all or any of the securities or investments mentioned in this document. Brokerage or fees may be earned by HASE or its affiliates in respect of any business transacted by them in all or any of the securities or investments referred to in this document. The investments mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make investment decisions based on their own investment objectives, financial position and particular needs and consult their own professional advisers where necessary. This document is not intended to provide professional advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Investment involves risk. Investors should note that value of investments can go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. This document does not purport to identify all the risks that may be involved in the securities or investments referred to in this document. 5
China GDP grows 6.8% in Q4 2016
Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com The 2017 Outlook The mainland China economy expanded by an annual rate of 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2016, up from 6.7% in the third quarter,
More informationChina Economic Growth Slows in 1Q
Yao Shaohua, PhD Senior Economist shaohuayao@hangseng.com China Economic Growth Slows in 1Q 15 April 2015 Mainland China s economic growth continued to lose momentum in the first quarter, due largely to
More informationAugust Ryan Lam, CFA
Ryan Lam, CFA Senior Economist ryancwlam@hangseng.com Advance estimates of Hong Kong s GDP for the second quarter are due on August 15. The GDP report is likely to feature a decline in growth, with economic
More informationInflation Outlook and Monetary Easing
Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing Although annual consumer price inflation rose for a second consecutive month in July, the underlying trend
More informationHong Kong First Quarter GDP Preview Nearing Full Capacity and a Wary Inflation Outlook
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com May 11 Hong Kong First Quarter GDP Preview Nearing Full Capacity and a Wary Inflation Outlook The Hong
More informationUpside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com July 28 Upside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth The economic landscape has changed significantly
More informationAddressing Three Questions About The Hong Kong Economy
Ryan Lam, CFA Senior Economist ryancwlam@hangseng.com Addressing Three Questions About The Hong Kong Economy In this note, we address what we believe are some of the most important questions in assessing
More informationHong Kong Economy: Recovering from Recession?
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com September 29 Hong Kong Economy: Recovering from Recession? Hong Kong staged a strong rebound in the second
More informationThe Hong Kong Economy in Contraction Mode
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com 22 December 08 The Hong Kong Economy in Contraction Mode Hong Kong is in recession and leading economic
More informationHong Kong Economic Update
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com May 28 Hong Kong Economic Update Hong Kong s March export growth stayed low at 7.6 yoy, as exports to
More informationMonetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform
Thomas Shik Senior Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform The benchmark lending rate set by the People s Bank of China (PBOC) has remained the key reference for banks
More information2015 Government Work Report Preview
Thomas Shik Senior Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com 2015 Government Work Report Preview Mainland China s Premier Li Keqiang will deliver his annual government work report to the National People s Congress
More informationHong Kong: Will service exports shine again?
Jackit Wong Senior Economist jackitwswong@hangseng.com Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Hong Kong: Will service exports shine again? Since the end of the global financial crisis,
More informationECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2016-17 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong increased 1.7 percent
More informationGlobal FX 3 Jan 2012
Global FX Jan The euro area s sovereign debt crisis has been dominating trading in financial markets over the past year and the currency market was no exception. The region s debt problems spread from
More informationMonthly Outlook. June Summary
Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the
More informationLooking Beyond the Retail Boom in Hong Kong
Ryan Lam Economist ryancwlam@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com 19 August 2013 Looking Beyond the Retail Boom in Hong Kong Structure and performance of retail sector Riding
More informationSummary. The RMB will be added to the IMF s SDR basket of currencies starting October 1 st, which will be
Summary Editor: Tristan Zhuo Senior Economist Phone: +852 2826 6193 Email: tristanzhuo@bochk.com China s economic momentum strengthened somewhat in the month of August. Industrial production has largely
More informationGlobal FX 2 Apr 2012
Global FX 2 Apr 2012 Uncertainty reigned in the currency market over the past two weeks, with the dollar fluctuating in rather tight ranges against most other major currencies. The greenback initially
More information2012 6 http://www.bochk.com 2 3 4 ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) June, 2012 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com An Analysis on the Plunge in Hong Kong s GDP Growth and Prospects
More informationMarket Bulletin. China: Still sneezing hard. January 20, 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin January 20, 2016 China: Still sneezing hard In brief Slower 4Q15 GDP growth and soft December data add to concerns about China s economic health. On a more encouraging note,
More informationGlobal FX 10 May 2010
Global FX 1 May 1 Fear gripped financial markets in the past week as market feared that Europe s inability to resolve its sovereign credit crisis will turn into a global financial crisis. Despite the fact
More informationGENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. September 2011 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly
GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September 2011 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly 0 Overview Growth trends established earlier this year continued
More informationECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2015-16 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong increased 2.8 percent
More informationGreater China Week in Review
Highlights: The Chinese economy decelerated in August with all three key economic indicators missed forecast. We think the recent slowdown was mainly self-engineered as a result of tighter policy in local
More information2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY December 4 207 208 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXPECT BETTER GROWTH WORLDWIDE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA Asset Allocation
More informationSummary. Editor: Tristan Zhuo Senior Economist Phone:
Summary Editor: Tristan Zhuo Senior Economist Phone: +852 2826 6193 Email: tristanzhuo@bochk.com China s macro economy stabilized in May, and growth in the second quarter appears to be similar with the
More informationGreater China Week in Review
Highlights: The USDCNY ended the week below 6.50. The pair plunged to a low of 6.4390 at one stage on Friday following the collapse of broad dollar on Thursday before recovering to 6.49 region. The pace
More informationECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2014-15 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong slowed to 1.8 percent
More informationHas the China Collapse Finally Arrived?
Has the China Collapse Finally Arrived? January 24, 2019 by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia China has been on the verge of a hard landing for many years, according to some analysts. Will they finally be
More informationSummary. The RMB continues to depreciate against the dollar. While there are a number of factors
Summary Editor: Tristan Zhuo Senior Economist Phone: +852 2826 6193 Email: tristanzhuo@bochk.com The protectionist rhetoric of U.S. President-elect Trump during his campaign has prompted fears of escalation
More informationAshdon Investment Management Q ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Ashdon Investment Management Q2 2016 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY June 2016 In the preparation of this presentation, Ashdon relied on data taken from sources it believes are creditable. As such, Ashdon believes
More informationUS Q3 GDP acceleration due to inventory build but final domestic demand remains weak
ISSN: 1791 35 35 November 26, 2013 Olga Kosma Economic Analyst okosma@eurobank.gr US Q3 GDP acceleration due to inventory build but final domestic demand remains weak Real GDP accelerated to 2.8% q-o-q
More informationMUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS
MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS Mexico s Macroeconomic Performance: Q 217 GDP and Current Economic Indicators 1 APRIL 21 MUFG UNION BANK, N.A. ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NEW YORK) KAREN MARTINEZ Latin America Economist
More informationAsian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016
Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Q1 2016 The past year turned out to be a year where one of the oldest investment adages came true: Sell in May and go away, don t come back until St.
More informationUS Economy Update May 2014
US Economy Update May 2014 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Annalisa Usardi Economist, US & LATAM Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook - July 2017
Global Economic Outlook - July 2017 June 28, 2017 by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital, Brian Liebovich of Northern Trust Global economic activity has generally been good during the first six
More information2018 A-Share Market Strategy
Equity Research 2018 A-Share Market Strategy Favor high growth mid-caps that are improving their product offerings Alex Fan, CFA SFC CE No. ADJ672 alexfan@gfgroup.com.hk +852 3719 1047 With contribution
More informationCESC Index Report for November
CESC Index Report for November China Exchanges Services Co Ltd (CESC) Highlights Mainland A shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks in November. The CES A80 surged 7.4 per cent. The CES 300 surged 3.7 per
More informationHAS THE CHINA COLLAPSE FINALLY ARRIVED?
Sinology by Andy Rothman January 22, 2019 a Macro data in the last quarter of 2018 didn t slow sharply. The growth rates of household consumption and private investment actually accelerated. a This year,
More informationQ HK$billion Total exports. Feb HK$billion Private Consumption Expenditure. HK$billion Q Dec 2010 Feb 2011 %
PROPERTY INSIGHTS Hong Kong Quarter 1, 2011 Market Overview Hong Kong s real GDP increased by 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q4, whereas the growth is primarily driven by merchandise trading and financial
More informationMUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS
MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS Colombia s Macroeconomic Performance: Q3 17 GDP and Current Monthly Indicators MUFG UNION BANK, N.A. ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NEW YORK) KAREN MARTINEZ Latin America Economist +1(1)78-78
More informationGlobal FX 24 May 2010
Global FX May The decline of the euro accelerated in the past two weeks. It hit a four-year low of. on May 9 as the sovereign debt crisis spread from Greece to other eurozone countries, undermining confidence
More informationIndustry Report. Toll Road Industry NEUTRAL. China. Toll Road. 12 Jan Operation Reviews
Industry Report China Toll Road Toll Road Industry Analyst: Alan Lam (852) 2509 7589 alan.lam@gtjas.com.hk 12 Jan 2004 NEUTRAL Operation Reviews Hong Kong listed toll road companies performed favourably
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy buoyed by rising US strength. June 12 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global PMI Global economy buoyed by rising US strength June 12 th 2018 2 Global PMI rises but also brings signs of slower future growth At 54.0 in May, the headline JPMorgan Global Composite PMI, compiled
More informationEconomic Barometer. Recent Developments on the National Economy
Economic Barometer CAMERON SCHOOL OF BUSINESS H. DAVID AND DIANE SWAIN CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC SERVICES Volume V, Issue 4 January 2014 Inside this issue: The US Economy 1 Growth in GDP 1 Labor
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationThailand. Respectable Growth in Monday, February 20, 2017
Thailand Respectable Growth in 2016 Treasury Advisory Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 6349-1888 / 1881 Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: 6349-1899 Investments & Structured Products Tel: 6349-1886
More informationMarket Watch. Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. March Review Developments in Financial Markets
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. March Review 2018 INSIDE THIS ISSUE Stock markets were blindsided on the first day of March, when US President Donald
More information26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Liang Shibin
Analyst Liang Shibin +6565311516 liangsb@phillip.com.sg Executive Summary Outperformance during Recovery Phase Small caps tend to outperform during economic recovery, attributed to the factor of nimbleness
More informationHKU Announced 2014 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release July 3, 2014 HKU Announced 2014 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Hong Kong Economic Outlook The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University
More informationEarnings Recession? April 8, 2015 by Burt White of LPL Financial
Earnings Recession? April 8, 2015 by Burt White of LPL Financial Earnings season kicks off this week (April 6 10) with Alcoa set to report first quarter 2015 earnings on Wednesday, April 8. This earnings
More informationBCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook
BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is
More informationDanske Bank May 2015 Economic Update,
Monthly update: June 1st 2015 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local Labour Market: NI Unemployment Quarterly Measure: Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, as measured by the Labour
More information... Eye on the Economy August
............................................................................................. Eye on the Economy August 2015.............................................................................................
More informationDanske Bank March 1 ST 2016 Economic Update,
Monthly update: Tuesday 1 March 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during January 2016: The NI economy suffered a significant blow during the
More informationMarket Bulletin. 4Q15 earnings recap: The never-ending story of oil and the dollar. February 16, In brief. Earnings recap
Market Bulletin February 16, 2016 4Q15 earnings recap: The never-ending story of oil and the dollar In brief The 4Q15 earnings season has been disappointing, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to decline
More informationExclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update
February 15, 2013 Exclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update Research Team Ryan Hakim Economist rhakim@cascadeasia.com Manuel Pakpahan Director, Investment Strategy manuel@cascadeasia.com Bank Indonesia
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast July 7, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationCanadian Economic Outlook Private Sector Forecasts
Page 1 of 7 EX-99.C.5 2 d29243dex99c5.htm EX-99.C.5 Exhibit C-5 Backgrounder Canadian Economic Outlook Canadian Economic Outlook Private Sector Forecasts The average of private sector economic forecasts
More informationEconomic Outlook
2013-2014 Economic Outlook Published by: Department of Finance Province of New Brunswick P.O. Box 6000 Fredericton, New Brunswick E3B 5H1 Canada Internet: www.gnb.ca/0024/index-e.asp March 26, 2013 Cover:
More informationHKU Announced 2013 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG Enquiry: 2859 1106 Website: http://www.hku.hk/cpao For Immediate Release HKU Announced 2013 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Hong Kong Economic
More informationModerating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3%
12 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW May 2018 Industrial Production Index Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3% IPI meets market estimates. Malaysia s industrial production expands by 3%yoy
More informationPPI Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price
31 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW June 2018 Producer Price Index Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price grew for the first time in 2018. Malaysia s producer prices increased by 0.1%yoy in
More informationHKU Announced 2011 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG Enquiry: 2859 1106 Website: http://www.hku.hk/cpao For Immediate Release HKU Announced 2011 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Economic Outlook
More informationMonetary Policy Report, June 2017
No. 32/2017 Monetary Policy Report, June 2017 Mr. Jaturong Jantarangs, Assistant Governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and Secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), released the June 2017 issue
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationPROPERTY INSIGHTS. Market Overview. Investors active amid improved market sentiment. Citigold Private Client. Hong Kong Quarter 4, 2013
Citigold Private Client PROPERTY INSIGHTS Hong Kong Quarter 4, 213 Investors active amid improved market sentiment Market Overview This quarter, about 891, sq ft of new office space was completed, bringing
More informationLETTER. economic. Global economy will be weaker than expected OCTOBER bdc.ca
economic LETTER OCTOBER Global economy will be weaker than expected The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has scaled down its projections for the global economy for and 212 for two major reasons. First,
More informationLETTER. economic. Canada and the global financial crisis SEPTEMBER bdc.ca
economic LETTER SEPTEMBER Canada and the global financial crisis In the wake of the financial crisis that shook the world in and and triggered a serious global recession, the G-2 countries put forward
More informationMacroeconomic perspectives
12 July 2018 Macroeconomic perspectives Csaba Bálint OTP Bank Romania Global context: Ultra-loose monetary policy seemingly came to an end; precaution is warranted (1) SUMMARY: In the beginning of 2018,
More informationGDP growth accelerates at year-end, although risks remain
Activity Spain: The GDP growth forecast for 4Q18 supports the 2.6% advance for 2018 Spain and Portugal Unit 14 December 2018 The growth of the Spanish economy could stand between 0.7% and 0.8% quarterly
More informationOutlook and Strategy Hong Kong China Funds
Q 208 Outlook and Strategy Hong Kong China Funds Investment Theme Mainland Stock Market Stabilises after Policy Impact Absorbed Mainland China s property sector rebounded as home prices stabilised. The
More informationIndonesia Outlook. Steady and stable 2018 growth. Thursday, February 07, Highlights
Indonesia Outlook Steady and stable 2018 growth Highlights Thursday, February 07, 2019 Treasury Research Tel: 6530-8384 2018 final quarter GDP growth came out at 5.18% yoy (-1.69% qoq), which was in line
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary July 28, 2014 Midsummer Madness John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights Only nine times in over 14 years have the FOMC meeting, GDP report,
More informationGAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY October 1 15 GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 15 & 16 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS As companies report third
More informationGLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK & STRATEGY
May 2018 John Praveen, PhD Managing Director FOLLOW Us ON TWITTER: @prustrategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Kristin Meza Phone: 973-367-4104 Email: kristin.meza@ prudential.com PGIM is the Global Investment
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy suffers loss of momentum in March. April 10 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global PMI Global economy suffers loss of momentum in March April 10 th 2018 2 Global economy suffers marked loss of growth momentum Global economic growth slowed sharply to the weakest for over a year
More informationMUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS
MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS Mexico s Macroeconomic Performance: Q3 217 GDP and Current Economic Indicators MUFG UNION BANK, N.A. ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NEW YORK) KAREN MARTINEZ Latin America Economist +1(212)72-57
More informationThe Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2018 and Fiscal 2019
14 September 2018 Report The Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2018 and Fiscal 2019 The Economy Is Continuing to Recover, Driven Mainly by Improvement in Domestic Demand. (1) Current State of the Economy: Recovery
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for
More informationASF Hong Kong Market Report
HONG KONG ECONOMY ASF 2016 - Hong Kong Market Report Background As everyone knows, Hong Kong has a very good geographic location, it is surround by sea and backup by a huge China market. HK has taken a
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Poland
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Poland. 6 OCTOBER 2015 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ,
More informationSurprisingly strong 1Q GDP
Global Markets Research Economics - Malaysia Surprisingly strong 1Q GDP The Malaysian economy grew at a surprisingly strong pace of 5.6% YOY in 1Q17, marking its best growth in two years led by an impressive
More informationChow Tai Fook (1929 HK)
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) Accumulate Target price: HK$11.60 3QFY15 sales disappoint SSS plunge 21% YoY in HK and Macau The sluggish sales was attributable to protest
More informationAustralia: Economic and Financial Outlook
Australia: Economic and Financial Outlook Greg Noonan Head of Business Markets Queensland & Agribusiness 5 June 2015 Australian economy and financial markets continue to be impacted by a large number of
More informationHengan International Announces 2015 Annual Results
For Immediate Release *** *** Financial Highlights For the year ended 31 December 2015 HK$ 000 2014 HK$ 000 Change Revenue 24,450,468 23,830,778 +2.6% Gross profit margin 47.6% 46.1% +1.5 p.p. Operating
More informationNovember PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy November 2015 John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone:
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 30 March 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - October
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - October 2015 - Executive summary Japanese Economy Japanese economy was dragged by stalling private consumption and exports though extremely
More informationNorthern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts
Economic Analysis Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts 2018 Quarter 1 Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Forecast summary For the Northern Ireland economy, the first part of 2018 has
More informationLETTER. economic COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 2015? JANUARY Canada. United States. Interest rates. Oil price. Canadian dollar.
economic LETTER JANUARY 215 COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 215? For six years now, that is, since the financial crisis that shook the world in 28, Canadian interest rates have stayed low. The key interest
More informationSummary. Chinese equities remained mired in a bear market, with the Shanghai composite losing nearly
Summary Editor: Tristan Zhuo Senior Economist Phone: +852 2826 6193 Email: tristanzhuo@bochk.com In spite of fixed asset investment, industrial production, and exports all missing their targets, China
More informationHaruhiko Kuroda: Japan s economy and monetary policy
Haruhiko Kuroda: Japan s economy and monetary policy Speech by Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with business leaders, Osaka, 28 September 2015. Introduction * * * It is
More informationGlobal economy in charts
Global economy in charts Ian Stewart, Debapratim De, Tom Simmons & Peter Ireson Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte, London Summary 1. Global activity easing 2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area 3.
More informationPROPERTY INSIGHTS. Market Overview. Central s rental drop slows. Hong Kong Quarter 2, 2012
PROPERTY INSIGHTS Hong Kong Quarter 2, 212 Market Overview Central s rental drop slows While office rents in Sheung Wan/Central/ Admiralty dropped 3.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to reach HK$17 (US$13.7)
More information2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with a Whimper Growth Received an Upgrade But Some Payback is in the Cards
2014: Started with a Deep Hole, Ending with a Whimper The year 2014 will be remembered for its roller-coaster pattern of economic growth. The unusually cold winter weather helped put growth in deep negative
More informationMUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS
MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS Colombia s Macroeconomic Performance: 2Q 2017 GDP and Current Monthly Indicators MUFG UNION BANK, N.A. ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NEW YORK) KAREN MARTINEZ Latin America Economist +1(212)782-5708
More informationGrowth to accelerate. A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy
Produced by the Economic Research Unit July 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Growth to accelerate Strong start to 2014 Recovery becoming more broad-based GDP growth revised up for
More information