經濟新引擎解讀南向市場商機. November 2016 KPMG 林恒昇執業會計師
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1 經濟新引擎解讀南向市場商機 November 2016 KPMG 林恒昇執業會計師
2 目錄 區域經濟 東協發展數據 東協多元市場 電商在東協市場發展商機 東協稅制 進入東協之提醒 進入東協之新思維 2
3 區域經濟 3
4 ASEAN s Regional Free Trade Agreements 中日韓 FTA RCEP(16) 印度 中國 韓國 日本 AEC 柬埔寨 印尼 汶萊 馬來西亞 澳洲 臺灣 寮國 泰國 新加坡 越南 紐西蘭 緬甸 菲律賓 4
5 東協市場利基 單一市場 新興市場 通路 品牌 中產階級人口大增消費力道強 天然資源豐富 人口年輕化勞動力充足 消弭零售業的地域限制 科技蓬勃發展 5
6 東協發展數據 6
7 人口組成 人口年齡分布 100% 90% 80% 4% 4% 5% 4% 6% 5% 5% 12% 10% 7% 人口結構年輕, 勞動及消費力高的族群為 歲 70% 60% 50% 73% 64% 67% 61% 69% 67% 63% 73% 72% 70% 其中印尼 (2.5 億 ) 菲律賓 (1 億 ) 及越南 (0.9 億 ) 人口便佔了東協 75% 的人口數 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 23% 32% 28% 35% 25% 28% 32% 16% 18% 23% 印度 (12 億 ) 為世界人口第二多的國家, 歲比例達 40% 0-14 歲 歲 65 歲及以上 Source: WORLD BANK 7
8 東協 GDP 成長率及消費性支出 : 年至 2014 年間 東協的實際 GDP 增長率平均為 5.3%, 高於全球水平 3.9% 總消費支出上升了 115%, 相當於 5.6% 的年均增長率 8
9 GDP 成長率 Source: IMF e 2016f 2017f World Asia Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao P.D.R Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
10 東協各國每個家庭可支配消費支出 2014 vs 東協各國懸殊的收入與支出 新加坡及汶萊屬於高收入國家, 國土較小, 於東協國家中屬於特殊之情況 馬來西亞 泰國 菲律賓 印尼 : 具有較強的消費基礎和較為發達的零售業 寮國 柬埔寨 越南 緬甸 : 中產階級分配較低之收入購買非必需品 於東協中, 存在顯著的收入和支出差異, 因此企業進入東協時不應依賴單一國家市場, 應做好區域性全盤考量 Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/un/oecd Note: Data are in constant 2014 prices, fixed exchange rates; Data for 2030 are forecast. 10
11 東協家庭收入分布 2014 vs 預估將以 187% 的比率逐年上升 52.1% Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Note: Data for 2030 are forecast 11
12 東協快速城市化 居住都市人口 43.5% 居住都市人口 52.9% 3.72 億 印尼及馬來西亞有超過半數的人口大多集中在都市 各國主要人口集中在首都, 除越南較特別, 人口最多的城市在南越的胡志明市 Source: Economist Intelligence, ADB 12
13 東協多元市場 13
14 單一市場及生產基地 AEC 國家供應鏈策略商業操作 Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Brunei Cambodia Lao P.D.R. Myanmar 服務技術生產資源 金融業 長期照顧 觀光及航空 時尚精品 能源業 建築業 電子業 汽機車 食品 教育 運輸 橡膠 農業及漁業 林業 14
15 南向商機 菲律賓印尼泰國馬來西亞 越南 消費性領域而言, 菲律賓及印尼具有高度人口紅利 過去由於已有多年製造業經驗, 當地勞工對於製造業的經驗純熟 當地政府提供較佳的獎勵措施, 有助生產規模擴大 菲律賓印尼越南緬甸寮國 水產養殖成長速度正在崛起 礦產 寶石 林業等天然資源豐富 15
16 電商在東協市場 發展商機 16
17 世界電商市場產值概況 以緬甸 越南市場為例, 從現有通路只占銷售 10% 翻轉到 50% 的速度會非常快, 這是臺灣企業的機會 臺灣目前在東協的產業優勢, 只有 5 年時間, 尤其電子商務, 更是要搶搭最後一班經濟起飛列車 投資策略也跟過去不同, 是把東協當作臺灣地區市場的延伸, 前去開拓東協內需市場, 而不是如過去只是利用廉價勞動力的代工模式 Source: A.T. Kearney(2015), 圖片來源 : pixabay.cpm 17
18 東協六國市場產值與上網概況 Source: A.T. Kearney(2015), 圖片來源 : pixabay.cpm 18
19 東協六國上網人口 線上使用者 線上購物者 數量 ( 單位 : 百萬 ) 佔總人口比例 35 歲以下比例 每週上網時間 ( 單位 : 小時 ) 上社群網站的時間比例 數量 ( 單位 : 百萬 ) 佔線上使用者比例 使用行動裝置購物比例 東協六國 % 70% % 印尼 39 16% 70% % 馬來西亞 20 67% 63% 16 32% 菲律賓 36 37% 71% % 新加坡 4 73% 51% % 泰國 19 29% 74% % 越南 40 44% 74% % 87 55% 57% 5 12% 61% 16 80% 47% 25 70% 62% 3 80% 48% 14 75% 58% 24 60% 58% Source: A.T. Kearney(2015) 19
20 東協稅制 20
21 稅率比較 汶萊柬埔寨印尼寮國 馬來西亞 緬甸菲律賓新加坡泰國越南 課稅基礎屬地主義全球所得全球所得屬地主義屬地主義全球所得全球所得屬地主義全球所得全球所得 公司標準稅率 居住者 18.5% 20%( 一般 ) 30%( 油氣部門及礦產探勘活動 ) 25% 24% ( 一般 ) 26% ( 菸草產製及進出口 ) 24% 25% 30% 17% 20% 20% 非居住者 18.5% 20% 25% 24% 24% 25% 30% 17% 20% 20% 個人所得稅率免稅 5%~20% 5%~30% 5%~24% 1%~28% 5%~25% 5%~32% 2%~22% 5%~35% 5%~35% 與台灣有無租稅協定 無無有無有無無有有有 21
22 進入東協之提醒 22
23 進入東協之提醒 文化差異 各國仍存在之保護政策 語言 基礎設施 不足 宗教 政治體制 / 社會體制 23
24 進入東協之新思維 24
25 進入東協之新思維 面對中 日 韓政府領軍 打團體戰 結合 跨國結合 結合當地 注重附加價值 - 生產附加加值 - 商品附加加值 25
26 進入東協之新思維 尊重當地企業社會臺灣出發 3. 法令責任 團體戰橫向整合縱向整合 運用資本市場 由臺灣出發結合技術 / 人才輸出 尊重當地法規 留意各項法規變動 當地環保 勞工權益 敦睦當地關係 臺商與跨國企業同 異業整合 結合臺灣資本市場 壯大公司本質 東協概念股 26
27 KPMG 佈局東協市場 KPMG 佈局東協已有近 10 年派駐台灣會計師至會員所 與會員所共創利益會員所來臺交換 寮國派駐台灣會計師 緬甸派駐台灣會計師 柬埔寨會員所來台交換 越南派駐台灣會計師 馬來西亞會員所來台交換 泰國派駐台灣會計師 日本會員所來臺交換 印尼會員所來臺交換 KPMG 臺灣 27
28 Thank you 28
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