Technical Seasonalities

Transcription

1 Equity Clock: Seasonality Analysis October 20, 2015 Technical Seasonalities eresearch Corporation is pleased to provide technical opinions on the market from a seasonality standpoint, courtesy of Equity Clock, a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network. eresearch also posts, daily, the regular technical opinions provided by affiliate: Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket. Equity Clock ( is a market analysis company that provides, completely FREE, technical, fundamental and seasonality analysis on a daily basis via TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com. Equity Clock s mission is to identify periods of re-occurring strength among individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top analysts in the industry, including those of Donald Vialoux, author of TimingTheMarkets.com. Donald Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a past president and director of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). He holds the designation of Chartered Market Technician (CMT). Mr. Vialoux has 45 years of experience in the investment industry, including prominent positions held at Richardson Greenshields and RBC Investments. He is the author of a daily letter on equity markets, which is available free at Mr. Vialoux is also the author of a weekly column published at GlobeAndMail.com that combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on Business News Network (BNN) Television. eresearch was established in 2000 as Canada's first equity issuer-sponsored research organization. As a primary source for professional investment research, our Subscribers (subscription is free!!!) benefit by having written research on a variety of small- and mid-cap, under-covered companies. We also provide unsponsored research reports on middle and larger-sized companies, using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. We complement our corporate research coverage with a diversified selection of informative, insightful, and thought-provoking research publications from a wide variety of investment professionals. We provide our professional investment research and analysis directly to our extensive subscriber network of discerning investors, and electronically through our website: Bob Weir, CFA: Director of Research Note: All of the comments, views, opinions, suggestions, recommendations, etc., contained in the TechTalk/Timing The Market articles, reports, files, documents, essays, etc., and which are distributed by eresearch Corporation, are strictly those of TechTalk/Timing The Market and do not necessarily reflect those of eresearch Corporation. eresearch Corporation 78 Cameron Crescent, Suite 202 Toronto, Ontario M4G 2A3

2 Stock Market Outlook for Wednesday, October 20, 2015 HEADLINE: By this point in Q3 earnings season, investors will often pull the rug out from beneath stocks after bidding them higher into early reports. The Markets Stocks ended mixed on Monday with little presented to move equities one way or the other. The S&P 500 Index gained a mere three basis points, holding below critical resistance presented around Looking at the hourly chart of the large-cap index, momentum indicators, including stochastics and MACD, are rolling over, suggesting a retracement of the recent gains may be on the horizon. Typically, by this point in the earnings season, investors will have gained a reasonable understanding of the strength of corporate America and subsequently pull the rug out from below stocks after driving them higher into the early releases. Between the close of October 21st and the close of October 27th, the S&P 500 Index has declined by 0.78%, on average, with losses recorded in 11 of the past 20 periods. This brief pullback in the broad market clears the way for the positive six-month seasonal trend that starts on October 28th, on average. As reported yesterday, the key hurdle overhead remains the 200-day moving average and the risks that are present when the best six months of the year starts below this long-term level. It may take a catalyst to achieve this significant break; whether the market can obtain this catalyst is anybody s guess. eresearch Corporation ~ 2 ~

3 S&P 500 Index Returns mid-way through third quarter earnings season From: To: Return: 10/21/14 10/27/ % 10/21/13 10/27/ % 10/21/12 10/27/ % 10/21/11 10/27/ % 10/21/10 10/27/ % 10/21/09 10/27/ % 10/21/08 10/27/ % 10/21/07 10/27/ % 10/21/06 10/27/ % 10/21/05 10/27/ % 10/21/04 10/27/ % 10/21/03 10/27/ % 10/21/02 10/27/ % 10/21/01 10/27/ % 10/21/00 10/27/ % 10/21/99 10/27/ % 10/21/98 10/27/ % 10/21/97 10/27/ % 10/21/96 10/27/ % 10/21/95 10/27/ % Average: -0.78% Put-Call Ratio Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at eresearch Corporation ~ 3 ~

4 Seasonal Charts A. Sectors and Industries Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today None B. Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today PHX Energy Services Corp (TSE:PHX) Seasonal Chart Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Seasonal Chart CGI Group Inc. (TSE:GIB.A) Seasonal Chart eresearch Corporation ~ 4 ~

5 Sempra Energy (NYSE:SRE) Seasonal Chart Sunoco, Inc. (NYSE:SUN) Seasonal Chart Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE:HON) Seasonal Chart eresearch Corporation ~ 5 ~

6 EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC) Seasonal Chart The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) Seasonal Chart <continued> eresearch Corporation ~ 6 ~

7 C. Seasonal Charts of Companies Reporting Earnings Today eresearch Corporation ~ 7 ~

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28 S&P 500 Index eresearch Corporation ~ 28 ~

29 TSE Composite eresearch Corporation ~ 29 ~

30 Special Free Services Available through Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently. To login, simply go to ########## BW: Information on Equity Clock is provided below. Equity Clock Equity Clock is a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network, a market analysis company that provides technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis on a daily basis via TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com. Equity Clock s mission is to identify periods of reoccurring strength among individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top analysts in the industry, including that of Don Vialoux, author of TimingTheMarkets.com. Feel free to use any of the content or seasonality studies (charts, timelines, or otherwise) presented as long as a link-back to this site at EquityClock.com is provided. For further information on indicators used in reports presented on this site, please visit our reference page. Equity Clock Website: ############ eresearch Corporation ~ 30 ~