Banco BMG S.A. Update to credit analysis. Exhibit 1 Key Financial Ratios - Banco BMG. Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans
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1 CREDIT OPINION 4 July 218 Banco BMG S.A. Update to credit analysis Update Summary Banco BMG S.A. Domicile Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil Long Term Debt B1 Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Negative Long Term Deposit B1 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Negative Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Farooq Khan Analyst farooq.khan@moodys.com Henrique S Ikuta Associate Analyst henrique.ikuta@moodys.com CLIENT SERVICES On 22 June 218, Moody s assigned long and short-term local and foreign currency counterparty risk ratings (CRRs) of Ba3 and Not-Prime. Moody s CRRs are opinions of the ability of entities to honor the uncollateralized portion of non-debt counterparty financial liabilities and also reflect the expected financial losses in the event such liabilities are not honored. Exhibit 1 Key Financial Ratios - Banco BMG Banco BMG (BCA: ) 35% 12% 3% 1% 25% 8% 2% 6% 15% 4% 1% Americas % Asia Pacific % Japan EMEA Median -rated banks 14% 5% 4.% 7.7% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Source: Moody's Financial Metrics.8% Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets 1.5% 18.9% Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets % Liquidity Factors (RHS) Liquidity Factors Ceres Lisboa Senior Vice President ceres.lisboa@moodys.com The B1 deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings are in line with BMG's BCA, and do not benefit from government support uplift given its modest market share of domestic deposits. Solvency Factors RATINGS Banco BMG S,A.'s (BMG) ratings have a negative outlook to reflect the challenges BMG continues to face to improve earnings generation and capitalization, while it refocuses its strategy towards a predominantly payroll credit card banking business. Moody's acknowledges BMG's leading position in this market segment, as well as the better risk profile of payroll credit card operations relative to riskier commercial lending. However, its business model has yet to prove capable of generating sustainable earnings, while the reliance on one line of business will likely reduce revenue diversification, potentially exposing the bank's earnings to volatility. At the same time, BMG's ratings took into consideration the improved and more predictable risk profile of payroll credit card loans, which represented 74% of total loans in March 218, up from 57% in 216, and is expected to further increase. Also, BMG's reliance on market funds and large institutional depositors has consistently declined, offset by growing share of more granular deposits from individuals, which are however, sourced from brokers.
2 Credit strengths» Improved asset risk profile as the payroll credit card loans represent the majority of loan portfolio» The bank maintains an adequate volume of liquid resources, while the reliance on market funds is reduced given the growing proportion of deposits obtained with households Credit challenges» Profitability remains challenged as the bank keeps redirecting its strategic focus that will be more predominantly dedicated to payroll credit card lending» Low capital position weighted by deferred tax assets and reduced internal earnings generation Rating outlook The negative outlook reflects the challenges the bank faces to manage to improve its profitability and capital. Also, the increased focus on payroll credit card lending likely reduces revenue diversification, potentially exposing the bank's earnings to volatility. Factors that could lead to an upgrade» Given the negative outlook, we do not anticipate upward pressures on BMG's ratings at this time. Factors that could lead to a downgrade» BMG's ratings could be downgraded if its profitability and capitalization ratios deteriorate. Sustainable core earnings generation would be key to stabilize its ratings. Also, downward pressure on its financial profile could arise from a higher reliance on market funds or on large investors, as well as by a reduction in its liquid resources. Key indicators Exhibit 2 Banco BMG S.A. (Consolidated Financials) [1] Total Assets (BRL billion) Total Assets (USD billion) Tangible Common Equity (BRL billion) Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) PPI / Average RWA (%) Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) CAGR/Avg This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 4 July 218
3 Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; LOCAL GAAP [3] May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [5] Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [6] Simple average of Basel III periods presented Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Profile Banco BMG SA (BMG) is a São Paulo-based bank that focuses on payroll credit card loans, loans to companies and unsecured consumer finance operations. In the corporate segment the bank supplies with structured financial services, financing, derivative instruments and guarantee insurance. As of 31 March 218, the bank held a market share of.19% of the banking system total assets and.36% in terms of deposits. BMG does not operate a retail branch network, but distributes its products and services in Brazil through a sales force comprising its own officers throughout its offices, independent agents and third-party service providers. In January 216, the bank launched a new distribution channel help! loja de crédito, a franchise network that offers credit solutions to retirees and public sector workers throughout Brazil. The bank s largest shareholder is Flávio Pentagna Guimarães, who owned 38.9% of its total share capital in March 218. Detailed credit considerations Increasing share of payroll credit card loans enhances asset risk Our assessment for asset risk at ba2 reflects the bank s shifting loan exposure to the lower-risk payroll credit card loans. BMG's loan book mix is consistently changing as the payroll credit card loans share increased to 74% in March 218, from 24% in 215, which has a lower risk profile than its remaining business lines. BMG is one of the largest players in the payroll credit card product, which penetration is supported by its network of branded franchises, as well as by the loan brokers. In the corporate segment, BMG keeps diminishing exposures given the increasing problem loans in this segment, currently representing 14.5% of total portfolio. Also, loans labeled as non-core reduced to a very low level (11.6% of total loan portfolio) following the sale of remaining car loans, while the current exposure mainly includes the legacy payroll loans. Going forward, we expect the bank to keep growing its payroll credit card segment as the other business lines continue to shrink. BMG s 9-day past due loan ratio increased by 31 basis points in the last 12 months, achieving 4.% in March 218, mainly pressured by higher delinquency in the corporate loan portfolio. The corporate segment was impacted by the effects of the economic contraction in the last years, but we expect that most of the problems in this portfolio are captured in the bank s asset quality metrics. The payroll credit card loans experienced some fluctuation in the last years following initial ramp up from its implementation, as the risks are seasoning, which could lead the delinquency in this segment to accommodate at a slightly higher level than currently. The bank's asset risk is supported by appropriate loan loss reserves that covered 148% of 9-day past due loans. Future earnings generation capacity remains uncertain Profitability score of caa1 incorporates uncertainties related to earnings generation as the bank s current business model keeps maturing. The bank s net income to tangible assets was equivalent to.8% in March 218, from.17% in 217, which was favored by the lower expenses with loan loss provisions and operating expenses, while negatively pressured by the almost stable volume of loans. The bank reported an operating result of BRL 72.6 million operating income, versus a BRL 13.7 million net loss in the same period of previous year. In the next 12 months, the profitability improvement could derive from a combination of several aspects, such as: (i) higher yields on loans, given the shifting portfolio mix towards the higher margin payroll credit card loans; (ii) lower cost of funds, as most of its funding is linked to the Selic rate; (iii) credit costs accommodate at lower levels as the problems with corporate and non-core exposures reduce. At the same time, we note that the bank s strategy of predominantly operating as a payroll credit card player incorporates challenges, such as the higher reliance on one single product, the bank's ability to keep growing this business, the potential entrance of new 3 4 July 218
4 competitors, and unexpected increases in expenses as the operational requirements to execute the payroll credit card product keeps maturing. Capital remains a challenge given the high volume of DTAs and low internal earnings generation BMG s caa1 score reflects Moody s tangible common equity to risk weighted assets ratio, which is negatively weighted by the large amount of deferred tax assets and goodwill held by the bank. Also, it reflects the uncertainties of potential capital improvement through internal earnings generation. Moody's capital measure of tangible common equity to risk weighted assets (TCE / RWA) increased significantly in the last 12 months, to 7.75% in March 218, from 4.71% in March 217. Although the bank accounted a capital gain following the sale of its 4% stake in the payroll joint-venture, Banco Itau BMG Consignado S.A. (unrated) in October 216, it was almost entirely offset by shareholders' decision to reduce the capital by BRL 4 million in the fourth quarter of 216. The regulatory capital ratios, however, recorded a higher improvement, with common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) achieving 11.8% in March 218, from 11.6% in March 217, as the equity investment in the bank subsidiary is no longer deducted from its capital. The reduced capital ratio under Moody's measure, represented by TCE / RWA, is mainly weighted by the bank's large stock of deferred tax assets (DTAs), amounting to BRL 2.4 billion in March 218, which includes the DTAs from temporary differences related to loan loss provisions, as per our analytical approach that DTAs are only available to absorb losses in limited circumstances. The ratio is also adjusted to exclude goodwill and include risk weighting factor of 1% on the bank's holdings of government securities. Going forward, we expect BMG will manage to maintain at least stable capital ratios as the growing exposures to payroll credit card loans will be offset by ongoing reduction of non-core loans and declining exposures to the corporate segment. The ongoing improvement on capital is directly linked to the bank's capacity to improve internal earnings generation, as well as to lower distribution of dividends or capital to shareholders after the meaningful payments carried out in the last years. Liquidity and funding structures stabilized but balance sheet growth could create challenges BMG's funding structure score of incorporates the increasing volume of resources obtained via brokers, which invest mainly in deposits and deposit-like instruments. As of March 218, the outstanding amount of time deposits and deposit-like instruments (LCIs and LCAs) was BRL8.6 billion, accounting for about 75% of its total funding. The remaining portion is largely consisted of subordinated bonds, loan assignments and financial banknotes. The bank is also making efforts to diversify and extend the duration of its funding structure, evidenced by the 5-year BRL 52 million debenture issuance in September 217, which was placed in the local market and is backed by payroll credit card loans. The funding obtained in the local market has been also supporting the replacement of external bonds that have been coming due such as the senior bonds that matured in April 218. The ba3 score for liquid resources reflects the stock of liquid assets held by the bank coupled with the expectation that it will remain stable given the relatively reduced volume of bond repayments scheduled for the next 12 months. We note that the bank s capacity to maintain a reasonable volume of liquid resources supports its maturity transformation risk as most of its loans have a longer duration loans, particularly the payroll credit card operations. In this sense, we note the bank maintains liquid resources that are equivalent to the funding maturing in the following 12 months. BMG's rating is supported by the Moderate - Macro Profile on Brazil Brazil's Moderate - macro profile reflects the country's large and diversified economy, strong international reserves, and the improved effectiveness of monetary policy. However, the country's economic performance remains weak following two years of recession. Following an aggressive expansion in lending, particularly at the public sector banks, which led to concerns of a possible credit bubble, lending has been contracting steadily since midyear 216 and asset risks have remained relatively contained despite the depth and length of the country's recession. The slowdown in lending has also limited banks' needs for market funding. Although governmentowned banks' account for a 56% share of the loan market, their growth rate has been consistently declining, which will help reduce pricing distortion created by their previous loose lending policies. Support and structural considerations Given the absence in Brazil of an operational going-concern resolution regime (ORR) wherein banks are resolved by bailing-in creditors, the impact of failure on a bank s different debt classes absent government support (i.e. bail-out) is unclear as we believe that resolution 4 4 July 218
5 procedures will be determined on an ad-hoc basis, rather than being clearly defined ex ante. The expected loss of each debt class is derived from a standardized instrument notching for all non-orr banks. Government support We believe there is a low likelihood of government support for BMG's rated deposits, which reflects the bank's small share of deposits and assets in Brazil's banking system. Counterparty risk assessment CR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt and deposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial loss suffered in the event of default and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or deposit instruments. The CR assessment is an opinion if the counterparty risk related to a bank s covered bonds, contractual performance obligations (servicing), derivatives (e.e., swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities. BMG's CR Assessment is positioned at Ba3(cr) / NP(cr) The CR assessment is one- notch above the bank's Adjusted BCA of, and, therefore, above the deposit rating of the bank, reflecting Moody's view that its probability of default is lower at the operating obligations than of deposits. The CR Assessment at Banco BMG does not benefit from government support, as the government support is not incorporated in the bank's deposit ratings. About Moody's bank Scorecard Our Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee s judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. Rating methodology and scorecard factors Exhibit 3 Banco BMG S.A. Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Moderate - Factor Historic Macro Ratio Adjusted Score Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans 4.% ba1 ba2 Quality of assets Capital TCE / RWA 7.7% b3 caa1 Risk-weighted capitalisation Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets.4% caa1 Return on assets Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 11.6% baa3 Deposit quality Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 21.1% ba2 ba3 Stock of liquid assets Combined Liquidity Score 5 1% 4 July 218 Earnings quality b2 ba1 Key driver #2
6 Financial Profile Business Diversification Opacity and Complexity Corporate Behavior Total Qualitative Adjustments Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Scorecard Calculated BCA range Assigned BCA Affiliate Support notching Adjusted BCA Instrument class Counterparty Risk Rating Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt Dated subordinated bank debt b2 Ba2 -b3 Loss Given Failure notching Additional Preliminary Rating Notching Assessment ba3 ba3 (cr) b2 Government Support notching Local Currency Rating Ba3 Ba3 (cr) B1 --- Foreign Currency Rating Ba3 -B1 (P)B1 B2 Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Ratings Exhibit 4 Category BANCO BMG S.A. Outlook Counterparty Risk Rating Bank Deposits NSR Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Senior Unsecured MTN Subordinate Other Short Term Moody's Rating Negative Ba3/NP B1/NP Baa3.br/BR-3 Ba3(cr)/NP(cr) (P)B1 B2 (P)NP Source: Moody's Investors Service 6 4 July 218
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8 CLIENT SERVICES 8 Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA July 218
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Rating Action: Moody's upgrades Permanent tsb's deposit and senior unsecured ratings; outlook stable Global Credit Research - 08 May 2015 London, 08 May 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded
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Credit Opinion: CorpBanca Global Credit Research - 15 Jun 2015 Santiago, Chile Ratings Category Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Senior Unsecured Moody's
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CREDIT OPINION Federal Home Loan Banks Semiannual Update Update Summary Rating Rationale The Federal Home Loan Bank System's (FHLBank System or FHLBank) Aaa long term rating and Prime-1 short-term deposit
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CREDIT OPINION Credit Suisse International Semiannual update Update Summary RATINGS Credit Suisse International Domicile United Kingdom Long Term Debt (P) Type Senior Unsec. Shelf Fgn Curr Not Assigned
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Credit Opinion: EBS Ltd Global Credit Research - 26 Mar 2015 Dublin, Ireland Ratings Category Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Senior Unsecured -Dom
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Rating Action: Moody's assigns Counterparty Risk Ratings to three Sri Lankan banks 18 Jun 2018 Singapore, June 18, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service has today assigned Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs)
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Rating Action: Moody's changes outlook on Bank Zachodni WBK S.A.'s ratings to positive Global Credit Research - 29 Jan 2018 London, 29 January 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook
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Credit Opinion: SkandiaBanken AB Global Credit Research - 20 Dec 2015 Sweden Ratings Category Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment
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Credit Opinion: Credit Suisse International Global Credit Research - 31 Mar 2015 London, United Kingdom Ratings Category Bkd Bank Deposits Issuer Rating Senior Unsecured Jr Subordinate -Dom Curr Ult Parent:
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ISSUER COMMENT Siauliu Bankas, AB Siauliu Bankas capital metrics will strengthen with EBRD s debt-to-equity conversion Contacts Savina R Joseph +357.2569.3045 Associate Analyst savina.joseph@moodys.com
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Credit Opinion: Banco BBM S.A. Global Credit Research - 15 Dec 2015 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Ratings Category Outlook Bank Deposits NSR Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment
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CREDIT OPINION 1 October 18 Banca Sella Holding Update to credit analysis Update Summary Rating Rationale Banca Sella Holding S.p.A.'s (Banca Sella) Baa deposit rating is driven by the bank's ba standalone
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CREDIT OPINION 5 October 17 OP Corporate Bank plc Semiannual update Update Summary RATINGS OP Corporate Bank plc Domicile Finland Long Term Debt Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Long Term
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CREDIT OPINION Valiant Bank AG Update to credit analysis Update Summary We assign A1/P-1 deposit ratings to Valiant Bank AG (Valiant). We also assign an Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), an Adjusted BCA
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CREDIT OPINION Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines Semiannual Update Update Summary Rating Rationale The Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines (FHLBank of Des Moines or FHLBank) Aaa long term rating and
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Rating Action: Moody's affirms Baa3 senior unsecured debt ratings of ICICI Bank's Bahrain branch Global Credit Research - 17 Aug 2017 Singapore, August 17, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed
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Rating Action: Moody's upgrades Ulster Bank Limited's deposit and issuer ratings to A3 and confirms Ulster Bank Ireland Limited's Baa3 deposit rating; outlook stable Global Credit Research - 03 Jun 2015
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Credit Opinion: Pohjola Bank plc Global Credit Research - 02 Apr 2015 Helsinki, Finland Ratings Category Moody's Rating Outlook Stable Bank Deposits Aa3/P-1 Baseline Credit Assessment baa2 Adjusted Baseline
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Rating Action: Moody's reviews NORD/LB Luxembourg S.A. - Public-Sector Covered Bonds, direction uncertain 19 Dec 2018 London, 19 December 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moodys") has placed on review
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