Deutsche Bank's 2015 Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) September, 2015
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1 Deutsche Bank's 2015 Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) September, 2015 FIBRIA APP WITH THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT APPLE STORE AND GOOGLE PLAY.
2 2 Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the company s filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
3 1 Company 2 Pulp 3 Financial 4 Final Overview and Paper Market and Operational Highlights Remarks Agenda 3
4 Company Overview 4
5 A Winning Player Superior Asset Combination Main Figures 2Q15 LTM Pulp capacity million tons 5,300 Net revenues R$ billion 8.0 Total Forest Base (1) thousand hectares 967 Belmonte Veracel Caravelas Portocel Aracruz Planted area (1) thousand hectares 563 Net Debt R$ billion 8.2 Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars) (2) X 1.95 Três Lagoas Jacareí Santos Port Terminal Pulp Unit Source: Fibria (1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State. (2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars. 5
6 Fibria s Units Industrial Capacity * Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year 6
7 7 Fibria s Commercial Strategy Sales Mix by End Use - Fibria Highlights Region - 2Q15 North 24% Europe 42% Asia LatAm 26% 8% Tissue 49% End Use - 2Q15 Specialties 15% Printing & Writing 36% Worldwide presence Strong global customer base Long-term relationships Focus on customers with stable business Customized pulp products and services Sound forestry and industrial R&D Net Revenues by Region - Fibria 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 8% 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 29% 20% 22% 25% 26% 21% 25% 26% 26% 27% 24% 23% 26% 26% 18% 26% 26% 30% 22% 29% 31% 31% 19% 23% 27% 27% 17% 24% Focus on less volatile end-use markets such as tissue Efficient logistics set up Low dependence on volatile markets such as China Low credit risk 100% certified pulp (FSC and PEFC/Cerflor) 44% 44% 42% 37% 43% 43% 35% 36% 46% 42% 39% 40% 47% 42% 1T12 2T12 3T12 4T12 1T13 2T13 3T13 4T13 1T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 1T15 2T15 Europe North America Asia Other
8 8 Pulp Supply Agreement: Puma Project Pulp volumes: Minimum of 900 kt of hardwood for the first 4 years 75% of 900 kt for the fifth year (phase out 1) 50% of 900 kt for the sixth year (phase out 2) Selling price based on the average net price charged by Fibria at the Port of Paranaguá (FOB Paranaguá) Sales destination: Globally, except for South America Operational startup: Mar/2016 Agreement benefits: Logistics and commercial structure synergies; Ensure sales volumes; Ensure pulp market access with Klabin brand. Logistics and commercial optimization and synergies; Support customers growth and enhance customers needs; Potential development of new customers. Mutual value creation, with better servicing for both Companies customer s base
9 Shareholder Structure and Corporate Governance Votorantim Industrial S.A. (1) BNDES Participações (1) Free Float (2) General Meeting 29.42% 29.16% 41.42% Fiscal Council Board of Directors 20% independent members Role of CEO and chairman is split Finance Committee Statutory Audit Committee Personnel and Remuneration Committee Sustainability Committee Innovation Committee 30% independent members 100% independent members 50% independent members 45% independent members - Listed on Novo Mercado, highest level at BM&FBovespa: Only 1 class of shares 100% voting rights 100% tag along rights (Brazilian corporate law establishes 80%) Board of Directors with minimum 20% independent members Financial Statements in International Standards IFRS Adoption of Arbitration Chamber SEC Registered ADR Level III program (1) Controlling group (2) Free Float 41.36% + Treasury 0.06% Policies approved by the Board of Directors: Indebtedness and Liquidity Market Risk Management Risk Management Corporate Governance Related Parties Transactions Anti-Corruption Information Disclosure Securities Trading Antitrust Genetically Modified Eucalyptus 9
10 Pulp and Paper Market 10
11 In 2013, we stressed the difference between the expected scenario and the realized one... BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES Expected scenario for 2013 in Nov 2012 Realized scenario in 2013 Eldorado 1,275 Eldorado 1,270 Suzano Maranhão Montes del Plata DELAYED UPM Fray Bentos 100 Sappi Cloquet -155 Sappi Cloquet -155 Jari -410 Jari -410 Cellulose du Maroc Sodra Tofte Unexpected Closures Net 1,585 Net 605 BEKP demand growth* 1,080 BEKP demand growth* 1,310 *Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012 *Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp September
12 As a result we had better prices than expected BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t) Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Annual 2013 Consultants average for 2013 Realized PIX/FOEX price Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2012 for 2013 prices) 12
13 The better than expected scenario happened again last year... BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES Expected scenario for 2014 in Dec 13 Realized scenario in 2014 Eldorado 230 Eldorado 230 Suzano Maranhão 1,275 Suzano Maranhão 1,100 Montes del Plata 830 Montes del Plata 550 Oji Nantong* 560 Oji Nantong* 235 UPM 100 Sappi Cloquet -115 Sappi Cloquet -70 Sodra Tofte -120 Sodra Tofte -120 APRIL Rizhao Old Town Ence Huelva More unexpected mill closures Net 2,660 Net 1,770 BEKP demand growth** 1,380 BEKP demand growth 1,734 *Partly integrated to existing PM **Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2013 *Approved license only for 500,000 t/y 13
14 14 and also better prices than initially projected BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t) Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Annual 2014 Consultants average for 2014 Realized PIX/FOEX price Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2013 for 2014 prices)
15 Then, what about 2015? BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES Expected scenario for 2015 in Dec 14 Realized scenario in 2015 Suzano Maranhão Montes del Plata Oji Nantong CMPC Guaiba II Eldorado Portucel Cacia Old Town (Expera) Sappi Cloquet April Rizhao Ence Huelva Possible closures* Net BEKP demand growth** to ,415 to 1, ? *Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr) **Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp September
16 Global Market BEKP Demand Shipments of Eucalyptus Pulp 11% 2014 vs (1) 6M2015 vs. 6M2014 (2) 1,734 kt 10% Total 5% 92 kt North America 6% 386 kt Western Europe 20% 717 kt China 13% 537 kt Others 790 kt Total 12% 4% 99 kt 130 kt North America Western Europe 17% 11% 319 kt 242 kt China Others (1) Source: PPPC World 20 January/2015 December/2014 (2) Source: PPPC World 20 Jun/2015 Paper Capacity increase in China Total FORECAST REALIZED PREVIOUS FORECAST LATEST FORECAST PREVIOUS LATEST Woodfree ,016 1,016 Tissue 1,390 1, ,365 2,117 2,643 Cartonboard 2,100 1, ,480 2,056 Total 3,746 2,860 1,867 2,855 5,613 5,715 Source: Fibria and Independent Consultants 16
17 Commodities Differentiation China GDP breakdown 8% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 44% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 47% 47% 46% 49% 49% 48% 49% 49% 50% 50% 50% 51% 51% 52% 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Consumption Investment Net Exports China commodity demand - basis 100 Corn Soybeans Wheat Crude oil Iron ore Sugar BHKP A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Source: Itaú Macroeconomic Department and PPPC May/
18 Technical Age and Scale in the Market Pulp Industry Further closures are expected due to lack of adequate investments in the industry 18 Hardwood (BHKP) Market Pulp Softwood (BSKP) Market Pulp PM Capacity, 1000 t/a Weighted average technical age 12.3 years STRONG PM Capacity, 1000 t/a Weighted average technical age 21 years STRONG Aracruz Weighted average capacity 1,277,000 t/a Jacareí Três Lagoas Old Town Ence Huelva Veracel Weighted average capacity 527,000 t/a 0 30 WEAK 20 Technical Age, years WEAK Technical Age, years 5 0 North American Pulp Mills Other Pulp Mills Closures Grade Switch On & Off More than 7.7 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.
19 Capacity closures DO happen Closures of Hardwood Capacity Worldwide (000 ton) ,260-1,180-1, E (1) Source: PPPC and Fibria (1) As of April
20 BHKP prices - CIF Europe (US$/ton) Capacity (000 ton) 20 Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor influencing pulp price volatility. (1) List Price bottoming at US$650/t in 2011 and US$724/t in APP South Sumatra (2) Horizonte II 2,0 1, APP Hainan Fray Bentos Mucuri Veracel Nueva Aldea Rizhao Três Lagoas Maranhão Eldorado Montes del Plata Guaíba II Klabin 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Valdivia Santa Fé Kerinci PL3 APP Guangxi Chenming Zhanjiang Oji Nantong 0,8 0, , , ,0 (1) Source: Hawkins Wright, Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (Apr/15), Brian McClay (May/15) and RISI (Dec/14) (2) Partially integrated production
21 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug Lowest volatility among commodities 100 = January 1 st, Iron Ore Soy Bean Crude Oil Sugar BHKP Price (FOEX Europe) Exchange Rate (USD - BRL) Source: Bloomberg August 31 st, 2015 Low volatility of hardwood pulp price, even though new capacities have come on stream in the period.
22 22 Brazilian macroeconomic data evolution Trade Balance - R$ billion (1) (1) From Jan/15 to Jun/15. Balance of Payments - R$ billion
23 Financial and Operational Highlights 23
24 Each 5% depreciation of the Real increases EBITDA by around R$403m (11%) and FCF by R$482 m (45%) Exchange Rate Average (R$/US$) Fibria net pulp price (US$/t) Fibria net pulp price (R$/t) , ,067 1, (3) ,877 1,311 1,344 1,509 Market Consensus (2) 40% 34% 36% 40% 39% 46% 29% EBITDA Margin 3,682 1,522 2,526 1,964 2,253 2,796 2,791 EBITDA (R$ million) 2009(1) 2010(1) LTM 2Q E (1) Excludes Conpacel (2) 2015 year end market consensus (3) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank August 28, 2015) 24
25 25 Cash Production Cost (R$/t) 2Q ( 58 ) Q14 Wood FX Utilities Chemicals and Energy Maintenance Downtimes Others 2Q15 + 4%
26 Cash Production Cost saw a annual increase of 4.2% over the past 6 years Fibria Cash Production Cost (1) (R$/ton) CAGR: + 4.2% Consistently controlling the production cash cost at a level below the inflation pace (2) 2010 (2) LTM 2Q15 (1) Constant Currency (2) Excludes Conpacel 26
27 27 Net Results (R$ million) 2Q15 MtM hedge swap ( 54 ) ZCC ( 85 ) ( 478 ) 1,157 FX Debt ( 394 ) current deffered ( 64 ) 614 Adjusted EBITDA 2Q15 FX Debt / MtM Debt Hedge MtM Operational Hedge Hedge Settlement Net Interest Deprec., amortiz. and depletion Income Taxes Others Net Income (Loss) (1) 2Q15 (1) Includes non-recurring expenses/non-cash, other FX variation expenses and other financial income/expenses.
28 Free Cash Flow (1) 2Q15 R$ million 1,157 ( 430 ) ( 93 ) ( 128 ) ( 38 ) ( 2 ) ( 149 ) Adjusted EBITDA Capex Interest (paid/received) (1) Working Capital Taxes Others Free Cash Flow Dividends Free Cash Flow (2) 2Q14 2Q15 (3) Evolution on return metrics ROE = 9.0% ROE = 13.4% ROIC = 10.1% ROIC = 13.9% (1) Does not include non-recurring items. (2) Not considering dividends payment. (3) Cash basis. For detailed information,, see 2Q15 Results Earnings Release (page 17). 28
29 Indebtdeness Net Debt (Million) Gross Debt and Interest Expenses (Million) Net Debt/EBITDA (R$) Net Debt/EBITDA (US$) ,991 8, Interest (US$) - 35% ,681 8,457 9,352 9,015-24% 3,033 2,803 2,642 3,840 2,915 2,906 Jun/14 Mar/15 Jun/15 R$ US$ Debt Amortization Schedule (US$ Million) Jun/14 Mar/15 Jun/15 R$ US$ Average Tenor (months) and Cost of Debt* in US$ (% p.a.) (revolver) (cash) Liquidity Cash on hand : US$ 470 million Pre-payment BNDES ECN ACC/ACE Voto IV Bond Jun/14 Mar/15 Jun/15 (*) Considering the portion of debt in reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves at the end of each period. 29
30 Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among its Latin American peers Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1) Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Fibria Suzano Klabin CMPC Arauco Eldorado Fibria Arauco CMPC Klabin Suzano S&P BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Negative BB+/Stable Moody s Ba1/Positive Baa3/Stable Baa3/Negative - Ba2+/Stable Fitch BBB-/Stable BBB/Stable BBB+/Stable BBB-/Stable - (1) Fibria s historical data in BRL. 30
31 A consistent and disciplined approach focused on reducing debt and its cost Debt (US$ million) x Leverage (US$) Interest (US$ million) x Cost of Debt (US$) (1) Jun/ LTM 2Q15 Gross Debt Net Debt Interest Reduction Free Cash Flow Increase Cost of Debt Reduction These dynamics creates a virtuous cycle (*) Considering the portion of debt in reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves of June. 30,
32 32 Recent funding transactions CRA (Certificate of Agribusiness Receivables) Amount: up to R$675m Tenor: 6 years bullet Coupon: max 102.5% CDI Booking period: Sept/2015 Reopening of the Syndicated Export Prepayment Upsized Amount: US$400m Book of US$515m Average term: 5 years Average Cost: Libor 3M % p.a. LatAm Investment Grade Loan Spread over Libor (bps) Avg. Term (years) COPEC Raizen Ecopetrol Fibria Colbun Braskem Molymet Argos USA
33 (1) Gspread on August 5, One of the best performances among Brazilian corporate issuers (1) Globopar 2025 Brazil 2025 Fibria 2024 BRF 2024 Embraer 2023/25 Vale 2022 Klabin 2024 Samarco 2024 Gerdau 2024
34 34 Fibria has the simplest and most transparent call in the industry Pulp supply Closures/conversions Inefficient capacities in China Demand Fiber and grade substitution Tissue China Pulp price Brazil GDP Energy crisis FX Capex inflation Cost inflation Rating Tax Corporate Governance Negative Neutral Positive
35 Final Remarks 35
36 Fibria is able to create value for its shareholders though capital discipline 36 FREE CASH FLOW INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION? PULP Growth with discipline Best portfolio of projects DIVIDENDS BIO-ENERGY AND OTHER OPPORTUNITIES Complementary to pulp Portocel Land and forest WITHOUT JEOPARDIZING CREDIT METRICS
37 Horizonte 2 Project 37
38 38 What is the importance of growth for Fibria? Wider fixed costs dilution Competitiveness Cost curve position improvement Greater bargaining power with suppliers Follow the growth of strategic customers Commercial positioning Developing new customers Distribution to new geographic markets Efficiency and competitiveness gains in logistics Higher quality in customer service Long-term growth potential Greater ability to capture new expansion market windows Strong M&A position
39 39 Why expand Três Lagoas? ESTIMATED BHKP CAPACITY RANKING 2017 (000T) Brownfield Project, synergies with current operations Modern plant, prepared for potential expansion Availability of wood and low average distance from forest to mill Forest based on the optionality concept and prioritizing lease and partnership models Additional energy surplus of 120 MWh Start-up: 4Q2017 Capacity: 1.75 million tons Fibria 7,950 CMPC RGE/APRIL Suzano APP Eldorado UPM Stora Enso Arauco Cenibra ENCE Altri IP Marubeni Mitsubishi Oji Mondi Nippon Paper Verso Resolute Georgia-Pacific Portucel Soporcel Lwart Pulp Mill Holding Domtar Klabin Others Current Capacity New Capacity New Capacity Klabin Agreement New Capacity Horizonte II Project Source: Poyry and Fibria Analysis (as of May 2015)
40 40 Pulp sales destination: Fibria growing where the market grows 37% 42% 19% 24% 36% 25% 4% 9% Total sales volume distribution after H2 start up (2) Current sales volume distribution (1) (1) Considers 2Q15 last twelve months. (2) Includes Klabin s sales volume
41 Source: Fibria assumptions. Confirmed projects considers: Klabin Ortigueira, APP South Sumatra and Metsa Äänekoski 41 Window of opportunity for H2 project in New capacities (000 t) 2,208 2,150 2,300 2, ,100 1,700 Confirmed 2,208 2,150 2, Potential 250 1, ,100 1,700 Closures (000 t) (600) (600) (600) (600) (600) (600) (600) Operating Rate not considering any project entering in 2017/2018 (theoretical scenario) 90.0% 88.6% 90.3% 93.6% 95.3% 94.0% 93.9% Operating Rate considering H2 90.0% 88.6% 89.7% 89.5% 91.1% 90.0% 90.0%
42 42 Schedule Purchase of the industrial plants Beginning of forest machinery deliveries Beginning of infrastructure and purchase of the TGs Beginning of construction Beginning of assembly Beginning of harvest Startup Negotiations with concession holders and Port of Santos tendering Definition of outbound logistics formats Initial hiring of harvest workers L1 interconnections during maintenance downtime Utilities clearance and commissioning Hiring of operational team 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q
43 Forestry base 43
44 44 H2 Project will have the forest base ready for the start-up Forestry base required: H1: 120,000 ha H2: 174,000 ha Total: 294,000 ha
45 Logistics 45
46 Forestry Logistics Low average distance from forest to mill 46 FOREST MILL 95 km H1 + H2 consolidated
47 Outbound logistics Fibria has logistical alternatives on a competitive basis 47 Data Collection / Preliminary Analysis Ports Highways Railroads Waterways Analysis Logistics Costs Opex - Rates Capex Qualitative Modal conditions Mato Grosso Goiás Brasilia Mato Grosso do Sul
48 Financials 48
49 Even more competitive cash production cost BHKP (US$/t) China USA Iberia Canada Chile/Uruguay Indonesia Brazil Fibria 2Q15 LTM Fibria w/ H2 Source: Hawkins Wright (Outlook for Market Pulp, July 2015) - FX considered by the consultant of R$/US$3.14. H2 cash cost was estimated according to weighted average cost, after mill balance, converted by R$3.14. Includes energy sales.
50 50 Up to now, 70% of the expansion capex is committed Expansion Breakdown by currency (1) Expansion capex updated expected curve R$ MILLION % Index R$ 5, Inflation indices 58% EUR (1) 2, FX 30% USD (1) /Swedish Krona FX Total 7, % 1% 4% onwards (1) Considering USD/BRL of 2.80 and EUR/BRL of 3.13, according to budget.
51 Funding for the H2 project Sources (estimated amounts in R$ billion) Q2 Excess Cash(1) BNDES CRA FDCO ECAs Banks Working Capital(2) Total Even with expansion capex at current levels of FX, leverage ratios can continue to decrease (1) Cash on hand above minimum cash balance at end of Jun-2015 (2) Working capital to be released in 2016 and 2017 in commercial deal with Klabin 51
52 Rating agencies understand that the Project will not jeopardize Fibria s credit metrics 52 We expect Fibria to continue benefiting from higher operating cash flows which would allow it to enlarge its Três Lagoas industrial complex while keeping its debt at reasonable levels for a low investment-grade rating Fitch s base case, which assumes that the company builds a new pulp mill (Três Lagoas II) starting in 2015 and uses net pulp prices of between USD575 and USD675 per ton during the construction period, results in net leverage reaching 3.5x (1). Net leverage would quickly decline to around 2.5x (1) once the mill becomes operational in the second half of 2017 (1) According to rating agency methodology
53 53 Project financials at a glance UNIT Pulp production/year (1) k tons 1,750 Expansion capex (2) R$ billion 7.7 Sustaining capex (3) R$/t 193 Cash cost (4) R$/t 341 Energy surplus MWh 120 (1) Creep capacity will increase production to 1,850 kt/year (2) Includes chemical leasing and investments in order to increase capacity to 1,850 kt/year. (3) Estimated sustaining capex in perpetuity considering capacity of 1,850 kt/year. (4) Estimated weighted average cost, after mill balance. Includes energy sales.
54 54 Final Remarks Economies of scale Synergies with current operations Wood availability and low distance from forest to mill Fibria s total energy surplus to be increased by 120 MWh Cash cost competitiveness Meet customers demand growth Attractive returns even in scenarios with appreciated BRL Solid financial profile
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