Fixed Income Market Watch Sweden
|
|
- Melvin Carter
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Investment Research 4 March 2013 Fixed Income Market Watch Sweden Riksbank and Money Market Forecast repo rates given Riba pricing, Riksbank and Danske Bank Markets Repo Eff. Date Riba Diff. (bp) Riksbank Danske Markets FRA rates 2.40% 2.20% 2.00% 1.80% 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% Now Last Month Last Year years Direction of past three data releases for a number of macroeconomic series Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Next release Retail sales, mom 27-mar Consumer confidence 27-mar Credit growth, households, yoy 27-mar Industrial production 08-mar Industrial orders 08-mar Manufacturing PMI 01-apr Manufacturing confidence 27-mar Service production 05-mar Service PMI 05-mar Service producers' confidence 27-mar Construction confidence 27-mar Economic tendency barometer 27-mar Trade balance, yoy 27-mar Credit growth corporates 27-mar Employment, s.a 14-mar Unemployment, s.a 14-mar Lay-offs, yoy 08-mar Number Number Number % % % Riba prices and forecasts Quant/Strategy Analyst Carl Milton carmi@danskebank.se Riba DM Forecast Riksbank Forecast years Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 10 of this report.
2 ASW (bp) TED Spread Fixed Income Market Watch TED-spread* and the spread between Riba and FRA contracts Swap rates Actual Market Implied 2.70% 2.50% 2.30% 2.10% 1.90% 1.70% 1.50% 1.30% Now Last Month Last Year years * Spread between 3M Stibor and a generic 3M point on the Riba-curve Nominal bonds Swedish government bonds* Yield Week Mth YTD Mrg Rate Spread vs DE ASW Carry SGB % % SGB % % SGB % % SGB % % SGB % % SGB % % SGB % % SGB % % SGB % % RD * Carry and roll down (RD) for 1M forward German and Swedish government bonds swapped into a 3M Stibor based cash flow Swedish Govies German Govies Years to Maturity March 2013
3 Marginal rates * 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% * Computed from a zero-coupon curve SEGOVT SEKSWAP Stadshypotek SHYP1577 SHYP1576 SHYP1575 SGB1049 SHYP1580 SHYP1579 SHYP1578 SGB1051 SGB1050 SGB1052 SHYP1583 SGB1047 SHYP1586 SGB1054 SGB % SHYP % SGB1041 Years to Maturity 0.50% March 2013
4 Mortgage bonds* Cpn Mat. Yield Wk Mth YTD Mrg Rte ASW Carry RD SHYP % sep % % SHYP % jun % % SHYP % mar % % SHYP % dec % % SHYP % sep % % SHYP % jun % % SHYP % mar % % SHYP % jun % % SHYP % sep % % SWH % jun % % SWH % maj % % SWH % mar % % SWH % sep % % SWH % jun % % SWH % mar % % SWH % dec % % SWH % maj % % NDH % jun % % NDH % jun % % NDH % jun % % NDH % jun % % NDH % jun % % NDH % jun % % NDH % jun % % SEB % jun % % SEB % jun % % SEB % jun % % SEB % jun % % SEB % jun % % SEB % jun % % LFH % sep % % LFH % maj % % LFH % jun % % LFH % mar % % LFH % jun % % LFH % jun % % SCBC % apr % % SCBC % apr % % SCBC % apr % % SCBC % nov % % SCBC % sep % % * Carry and roll down (RD) for 1M forward 4 4 March 2013
5 Top 5 monthly winners Top 5 monthly losers bp bp SGB1054 jun % SHYP1586 sep % 10.5 SGB1057 nov % -8.5 NDH5521 jun % 9.5 SGB1047 dec % -6.5 SCBC127 apr % 9.5 SHYP1574 sep % -6.0 SHYP1576 mar % 9.0 LFH505 sep % -6.0 SHYP1583 jun % 9.0 Top 5 largest Z-score * Z-Score NDH5526 jun % 3.14 SHYP1575 jun % 3.13 SEB567 jun % 3.12 LFH506 maj % 2.46 SWH166 maj % 2.41 * Std from 3M mean Top 5 yield volatility bp/day SGB1053 mar % 4.9 SGB1057 nov % 4.6 SGB1056 jun % 4.6 SGB1054 jun % 4.6 SGB1047 dec % 4.4 Note: Period: past month Top 5 ASW bp SHYP1586 sep % 63.0 SWH180 maj % 59.9 SHYP1583 jun % 55.2 NDH5521 jun % 52.4 LFH511 jun % 44.5 Top 5 ASW gainers* bp SHYP1586 sep % 15.5 NDH5521 jun % 14.0 SHYP1583 jun % 13.7 SWH180 maj % 13.5 SEB571 jun % 7.0 * Change over past month Top 5 winners total return* YTD SHYP1574 sep % 0.34% LFH505 sep % 0.34% NDH5525 jun % 0.27% SEB566 jun % 0.27% SWH177 jun % 0.26% * Period: YTD Top 5 losers total return* YTD SGB1053 mar % -6.79% SGB1056 jun % -5.34% SGB1057 nov % -3.05% SHYP1586 sep % -2.90% SGB1054 jun % -2.31% * Period: YTD 5 4 March 2013
6 Spread vs Govies (bp) Fixed Income Market Watch Top 5 carry and roll down, maturity <3Y* Carry RD SCBC127 apr % SHYP1577 dec % LFH510 jun % SCBC131 nov % SEB568 jun % * Period: 1M forward Top 5 carry and roll down, maturity >3Y* Carry RD SWH186 dec % LFH507 jun % SEB571 jun % SCBC134 mar % LFH511 jun % * Period: 1M forward 2Y spread vs SGB1041 5Y spread vs SGB1051 bp Week Month YTD SHYP1575 jun % SWH166 maj % NDH5526 jun % SEB567 jun % LFH506 maj % SCBC126 apr % bp Week Month YTD SHYP1579 jun % SWH185 mar % NDH5528 jun % SEB570 jun % LFH507 jun % SCBC133 jun % Swedish mortgage vs government bonds* Stadshypotek Swedbank Hypotek Nordea Hypotek SEB SCBC LF Hypotekx509 0 Years to Maturity * Computed spread is based on a zero-coupon based government curve 6 4 March 2013
7 Spread (bp) Rate BP Fixed Income Market Watch Historical slope and curvature of swap term structure y 5-2y Y Swap spreads vs government bonds bp Week Month YTD SGB1041 maj % SGB1051 aug % SGB1054 jun % Swap spreads vs EUR swaps bp Week Month YTD SWAP2Y mar % SWAP5Y mar % SWAP10Y mar % Forward swap rates Swap 1Y1Y Swap 2Y2Y Swap 5Y5Y Forward swap spread vs euro SW vs EU Swap 1Y1Y SW vs EU Swap 5Y5Y SW vs EU Swap 2Y2Y March 2013
8 Inflation-linked bonds Swedish inflation-linked bonds Cpn Mat. Yield Week Mth YTD Z-Cpn BEI CPI Delta Mrg Rte Nom. BEI vs Nom Sprd vs DE SGB % apr % % % SGB % SGB % dec % % % SGB % 3.2 SGB % jun % % % SGB % 99.2 SGB % dec % % % SGB % 92.4 SGB % jun % % % SGB % 79.9 SGB % dec % % % SGB % 96.1 Swedish CPI and forecast BEI spreads in Sweden and Germany 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% CPI YoY DM CPI Forecast YoY 2.00% Sweden Germany 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% -1.00% -2.00% 0.50% Years to Maturity 0.00% * Zero-coupon based generic BEIs Carry at 1.25% repo* 1M 3M 6M SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB * Based on Danske Bank Markets CPI forecast Forward BEI at 1.25% repo* 1M 3M 6M SGB % 0.42% 0.75% SGB % 1.07% 1.24% SGB % 1.17% 1.28% SGB % 1.38% 1.45% SGB % 1.49% 1.55% SGB % 1.92% 1.97% * Based on Danske Bank Markets CPI forecast 8 4 March 2013
9 Asset and position correlations Top 10 correlations vs 10Y yield* Asset Correlation 5Y SEGOVT 0.95 DE 10Y 0.91 Norway 10Y Y SEGOVT 0.76 US 10Y 0.74 UK 10Y 0.74 Slope 0.74 S&P MSCI World 0.65 Eurostoxx 0.65 * Weekly data, 24-week window Top 10 negative corr. vs 10Y yield* Asset Correlation ITRX Sr Fin ITRX X-over ITRX Main USDSEK Steel VIX Italy 10Y Copper GBPSEK AUDSEK * Weekly data, 24-week window Correlations between the yield of a 10Y generic Swedish government bond and other assets and indices* Correlation Slope Curvature DE 10Y US 10Y ITRX Main WTI Oil OMX30 Gold * Correlations are computed from weekly data and a 24-week rolling window of log returns Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 9 4 March 2013
10 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). The author of this research report is Marcus Söderberg, Quant/Strategy Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from Danske Bank upon request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Date of first publication See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication. General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States March 2013
11 This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission March 2013
Fixed Income Market Watch
Investment Research 07 January 2013 Fixed Income Market Watch Sweden The Riksbank and Money Market Forecast repo rates given Riba pricing, Riksbank and Danske Bank Markets Repo Diff. Danske Bank Eff. Date
More informationFixed Income Market Watch
Investment Research 9 April 2013 Fixed Income Market Watch Sweden Riksbank and Money Market Forecast repo rates given Riba pricing and Danske Bank Markets Repo Eff. Date Riba Diff. (bp) Danske Markets
More informationReading the Markets Sweden
Investment Research - General Market Conditions 13 December 2012 Reading the Markets Sweden How weak is the Swedish economy really? Possible consequences for the curve Danske Banks market view in a nutshell
More informationDKK: Unchanged appetite for Danish bonds among foreign investors in September
DKK: Unchanged appetite for Danish bonds among foreign investors in September Jens Nærvig Pedersen Analyst Danske Bank Markets jenpe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 8 61 28 October 213 Important disclosures and
More informationDKK: foreign investors bought government bonds and treasury bills in August
DKK: foreign investors bought government bonds and treasury bills in August Jens Nærvig Pedersen Analyst Danske Bank Markets jenpe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 8 61 27 September 213 Important disclosures and
More informationMonitor Euro area credit monitor
Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2014 Monitor Euro area credit monitor Credit growth outlook The latest improvements in euro-area bank lending are expected to continue. The progress
More informationEuro Inflation Research #2 ECB s core inflation forecast is too optimistic
Investment Research General Market Conditions 6 March 2015 Euro Inflation Research #2 ECB s core inflation forecast is too optimistic The ECB yesterday published new inflation forecasts, including the
More informationTrade Recommendation EUR rates: Pay 15Y15Y, Receive 2Y2Y EUR
Investment Research 9 July 2013 Trade Recommendation EUR rates: Pay 15Y15Y, Receive 2Y2Y EUR Pay 15Y15Y, Receive 2Y2Y EUR spread (vs 6M Euribor) Open ½ position @ 152bp with an option to open next ½ position
More informationFlash Comment Is renewed surge in credit forcing PBoC to tighten further?
Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 February 2014 Flash Comment Is renewed surge in credit forcing PBoC to tighten further? Today, for the first time since June 2013, the Peoples Bank of China
More informationRoom for tighter asset swap spreads as issuance picks up
Room for tighter asset swap spreads as issuance picks up Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Peter Possing Andersen Lars Tranberg Rasmussen +45 4513 719 + 45 4512 8534 pa@danskebank.dk laras@danskebank.dk Trade
More informationMonitor Chinese credit crunch
Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 August 213 Monitor Chinese credit crunch Credit expansion stabilised in July with seasonally adjusted new credit expanding CNY1.trn after increasing CNY.8trn
More informationVolatility in the money market is not unusual in June and December window dressing an important explanation
Investment Research General Market Conditions 2 July 213 Monitor Chinese credit crunch The surge in money market rates in June has created fears that China could be facing a severe credit crunch with substantial
More informationStrategy Slowing EM outflows to support euro, Scandi markets
Jan-5 Jun-5 Nov-5 Apr-6 Sep-6 Feb-7 Jul-7 Dec-7 May-8 Oct-8 Mar-9 Aug-9 Jan-1 Jun-1 Nov-1 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Investment Research General Market
More informationMonitor Chinese credit crunch
Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 January 2014 Monitor Chinese credit crunch Most of our indicators for credit risk including the swap-government bond spread, the spread between onshore
More informationNegative deposit rates The Danish experience
Negative deposit rates The Danish experience Chief analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen +45 45 12 85 32 FX, Rates and Commodities Research November 2013 Investment Research Agenda the Danish experience Danish
More informationDKK: Foreign ownership share of government bonds at post-crisis high
DKK: Foreign ownership share of government bonds at post-crisis high Jens Nærvig Pedersen Analyst Danske Bank Markets jenpe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 80 61 28 July2014 Important disclosures and certifications
More informationMonitor Euro area deflation
Investment Research General Market Conditions 17 July 2014 Euro area deflation Inflation outlook Euro inflation remained very low at 0.5% in June and is still far below the ECB s target. In response, the
More informationECB Research Draghi reveals favourable TLTRO details
Investment Research General Market Conditions 4 July 2014 ECB Research Draghi reveals favourable TLTRO details The ECB has provided additional details about the targeted LTRO (TLTRO) announced at its meeting
More informationEuro inflation research #3 Time to position for higher inflation
Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 March 2015 Euro inflation research #3 Time to position for higher inflation We see value in positioning for higher inflation especially after the oil price
More informationResearch Pent-up demand in investments could boost euro area growth
Investment General Market Conditions 3 September 2013 Pent-up demand in investments could boost euro area growth The euro area has finally moved out of recession and at this stage pent-up demand could
More informationEuro inflation research #1 Inflation to increase sharply this year
Investment Research General Market Conditions 05 March 2015 Euro inflation research #1 Inflation to increase sharply this year Euro inflation surprised on the upside in February and consequently we revise
More informationMonitor Chinese credit crunch
Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2014 Monitor Chinese credit crunch Credit growth continued to slow in August. The broad credit measure total social finance (TSF) slowed to 15.3%
More informationResearch: Denmark Danish independent rate hike has moved closer
Investment Research 17 December 215 Research: Denmark Danish independent rate hike has moved closer After the December ECB meeting we have seen a new currency outflow from Denmark, and we now forecast
More informationNorges Bank Review 24 September 2015
Norges Bank Review 24 September 2015 A 25bp rate cut and an easing bias Frank Jullum Chief Analyst fju@danskebank.dk www.danskebank.com/research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen Chief Analyst klom@danskebank.dk
More informationEuro area outlook for 2015
Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 January 2015 Euro area outlook for 2015 Deflation but the good kind The euro area slipped into deflation in December 2014 and we expect the inflation rate
More informationReading the Markets Sweden
Investment Research 22 March 2019 Both the ECB and Fed are on hold in 2019 but the Bank of Norway is hawkish. Fixings might not return to normal ASW spreads in short govvies have room to widen. SEK: Surprised
More informationECB preview Dovish and slightly worried
Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 August 2015 ECB preview Dovish and slightly worried Main focus on the drop in 5Y5Y inflation expectations that are again far below the ECB s 2%-target The
More informationStrategy The big EUR curve flattening has started
Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 January 2018 Strategy The big EUR curve flattening has started It has been a rocky past month for both the US and the European fixed income market, as 10Y
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions 3 December Dec HICP (flash est. 0.1%) LTRO1 matures
Investment Research General Market Conditions 3 December 214 ECB preview ECB s timeline is tricky isn t it? The ECB has eased twice in 214, but liquidity conditions in the Euro system will still be balancing
More informationEuro area housing markets
Investment Research General Market Conditions 22 October 212 Euro area housing markets A temperature gauge The euro area housing market spans large differences, as shown in Danske Bank s Euro Area Housing
More informationGlobal Inflation. Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing. 27 October /
Global Inflation Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg Mikael Olai Milhøj Senior Analyst, Euro area macro research Senior Analyst, US and UK macro
More informationFlash Comment China drafts plan for Tobin tax on FX transactions implications and recommendations
Investment Research General Market Conditions 16 March 2016 Flash Comment China drafts plan for Tobin tax on FX transactions implications and recommendations What s the plan? According to sources close
More informationFX Strategy USD/JPY is back in business - we target 114
Investment Research 11 September 2014 FX Strategy USD/JPY is back in business - we target 114 USD/JPY has recently broken the early 2014 high of 105.50 and is now back to 2008 levels. The upside break
More informationCommodities Research What if Iran s oil returns to the market?
Investment Research General Market Conditions 2 November 213 Commodities Research What if Iran s oil returns to the market? Momentum seems to be growing in talks over Iran s nuclear programme as negotiations
More informationNorges Bank Review. Unchanged but September cut still in store. 23 June Follow us on
Norges Bank Review Unchanged but September cut still in store Frank Jullum Chief Economist +47 85 40 65 40 fju@danskebank.dk Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt Analyst +45 45 12 85 29 klom@danskebank.dk 23 June 2016
More informationBoJ Preview BoJ set to meet high expectations
Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 July 2016 BoJ set to meet high expectations We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to cut its policy rate by 20bp to -0.3% and expect additional qualitative
More informationECB Research ECB cutting through the lower bound Danish experiences
Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 November 2015 ECB Research ECB cutting through the lower bound Danish experiences Given the turnaround in the ECB s view on deposit rate cuts, we expect
More informationFed s quantitative tightening details
Fed s quantitative tightening details Impact on the balance sheet and reinvestments Mathias Røn Mogensen Analyst, Fixed Income Research +45 45 13 71 79 mmog@danskebank.dk 19 June 2017 Investment Research
More informationECB research #1 ECB s growth projection, economic slack and credit supply
Investment Research General Market Conditions 22 May 2014 ECB research #1 ECB s growth projection, economic slack and credit supply We expect the ECB to lower its GDP growth projection for 2014 as growth
More informationPeriphery research: Greece Signs of improvement compared to the recovery in Latvia
Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 August 2014 Periphery research: Greece Signs of improvement compared to the recovery in Latvia Latvia s economy went into free fall in H2 07 but due to
More informationEuro area fundamentals #1 Potential growth important for bond yields
Investment Research General Market Conditions 1 June 2015 Potential growth important for bond yields Bond yields have been driven by ECB flows in 2015 and it seems evident that fundamentals have had a
More informationFlash Comment ECB preview: Still pressure from low inflation
Investment Research General Market Conditions 8 January 2014 Flash Comment ECB preview: Still pressure from low inflation Euro inflation has declined again and core inflation is at an all-time low. This
More informationNorges Bank Review Unchanged rates and neutral bias maintained
Investment Research General Market Conditions 16 March 2017 Norges Bank Review Unchanged rates and neutral bias maintained As expected, Norges Bank (NB) this morning left the sight deposit rate unchanged
More informationFX Edge Rules or discretion? A look at past rate hikes in Denmark
Investment Research General Market Conditions 8 January 2019 FX Edge Rules or discretion? A look at past rate hikes in Denmark We look at 14 unilateral rate hikes in Denmark since 1999 to draw a picture
More informationIn the euro area the trade balance for June will give insight into whether the end of the recession was driven by growth abroad.
Investment Research General Market Conditions 16 August 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today In the euro area the trade balance for June will give insight into whether the end of the recession was driven
More informationResearch Global Oil price to bottom when non-opec output rise halts déjà vu #2
Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2014 Oil price to bottom when non-opec output rise halts déjà vu #2 We expect the current slide in oil prices to continue until we see producers
More informationGrowth might show positive surprise
Baltic Outlook Growth might show positive surprise Violeta Klyvienė Senior Baltic Analyst +370 5 2156992, +370 611 24354 April 2011 vkly@danskebank.dk Important disclosures and certifications are contained
More informationFX Strategy Prepare for removal of the EUR/CZK floor
Investment Research General Market Conditions 24 October 2016 FX Strategy Prepare for removal of the EUR/CZK floor The Czech National Bank (CNB) plans to exit its exchange rate floor to the euro in the
More informationStrategy Bond yield conundrum vol. 2
Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 November 2017 Strategy Bond yield conundrum vol. 2 The big US curve flattening The big theme in the US fixed income market is the flattening of the yield
More informationDONG Energy Hybrid exchange offer at significant discount
Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 June 2013 DONG Energy Hybrid exchange offer at significant discount Today DONG Energy announced that it has abandoned its plans to change the prospectus
More informationFlash Comment ECB preview: Another refi rate cut
Investment Research General Market Conditions 4 February 2014 Flash Comment ECB preview: Another refi rate cut At the ECB meeting last month, Mario Draghi described two scenarios that would lead to action.
More informationEuro Inflation Research #1 How the ECB makes its inflation projections
Investment Research General Market Conditions 24 February 2014 Euro Inflation Research #1 How the ECB makes its inflation projections Mario Draghi has hinted that the new 2016 forecasts due to be published
More informationECB easing will it work? #2
Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 August 214 ECB easing will it work? #2 Liquidity and money market rates We expect the TLTROs will boost liquidity. However, the amount of borrowing limits
More informationReading the Markets Sweden
Investment Research 1 March 219 Why are European yield curves not steepening? We propose an alternative to 3Y-1Y swap steepeners that we hope is less exposed to the global hunt for yield. Consumers see
More informationWhat if Swedish Housing Prices Drop 15-20%?
Investment Research What if Swedish Housing Prices Drop 15-20%? - The housing market poses a risk to Swedish growth and the inflation outlook - The krona is feeling the pain but rates market yet to adjust
More informationFlash Comment China takes more steps to fight financial risks
Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 November 2017 Flash Comment China takes more steps to fight financial risks China stepped up the fight against the risks of shadow banking on Friday, announcing
More informationResearch US Further downgrade of US debt likely in 2012
Investment Research General Market Conditions 1 August 11 Research US Further downgrade of US debt likely in 1 The recent years fast rise in US gross debt combined with a deterioration of economic outlook
More informationNorges Bank preview A 25bp rate cut and easing bias
Investment Research 17 March 2015 Norges Bank preview A 25bp rate cut and easing bias We expect Norges Bank (NB) to deliver a 25bp rate cut on Thursday. NB is set to keep the easing bias by presenting
More informationFlash Comment China holiday wrap-up: sentiment improving
Investment Research General Market Conditions 9 August 2016 Flash Comment China holiday wrap-up: sentiment improving Below is a brief summary of developments in China over the summer Chinese offshore stocks
More informationThemes in this edition:
Strategy Research Sweden: On the radar This publication is a summary of interesting market related topics and observations that have been covered and discussed within the Strategy Research group, but not
More informationItaly under pressure but we expect the spread to core EU and the periphery to stabilise
Investment Research Italy under pressure but we expect the spread to core EU and the periphery to stabilise Jens Peter Sørensen Chief Analyst +45 45 12 85 17 jenssr@danskebank.dk 22 May 2018 www.danskebank.com/ci
More informationStrategy Sweden: On the radar
Strategy Sweden: On the radar This publication is a summary of interesting market related topics and observations that have been covered and discussed within the Strategy Research Sweden group, but not
More informationResearch Iceland: Recovery in uncertain times
Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 April 2011 Research Iceland: Recovery in uncertain times The Icelandic economy is now recovering after the collapse of the Icelandic banking sector in October
More informationCovered Bonds Update LCR-induced rally has run its course
Investment Research 14 October 2014 Covered Bonds Update LCR-induced rally has run its course Last Friday, the European Commission (EC) published details on the treatment of covered bonds in the upcoming
More informationDanske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News
Investment Research General Market Conditions 13 August 2015 Market Movers Focus will continue to be on Chinese exchange rate policy and not least to what degree the People s Bank of China (PBoC) attempts
More informationResearch US The subtle push for price level targeting continues
Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 January 2018 The subtle push for price level targeting continues DANSKE BANK NEW RESEARCH WEBSITE: We have launched our new research website with all our
More informationMarket and Economic Charts. Retail Fund Management Team Investec Asset Management
Market and Economic Charts Retail Fund Management Team Investec Asset Management 30 April 2010 Looking at Markets Global SA Economics Major Index Performance Major Index Performance Market Drivers Inflation
More informationBond Index changes, June 2018
Trading Strategy Bond Index changes, June 2018 Kiran Sakaria, kisa02@handelsbanken.se First preview: monthly index rebalancing preview Large duration changes in HMSA50 and HMSA10 because SGB 1060 becomes
More informationReading the Markets Norway On track for a March hike
Investment Research 18 February 2019 On track for a March hike Macro: Norges Bank appears determined to hike in March. Fixed income: expensive mid-segment s in ASW terms. NOK FX: utilise NOK setback to
More informationReading the Markets Norway International political risk, in a slow domestic summer market, puts downward pressure on rates
Investment Research 16 July 2018 Reading the Markets Norway International political risk, in a slow domestic summer market, puts downward pressure on rates Macro: the domestic economy is still strong in
More informationChart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
More informationStatoil Q1 14: helped by weaker local currency
Investment Research 29 April 214 Statoil Q1 14: helped by weaker local currency Statoil delivered a good Q1 14 result from a credit perspective. Group entitlement production was unchanged y/y. Coupled
More informationECB preview: another minor hawkish twist
Investment Research General Market Conditions ECB preview: another minor hawkish twist Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg Jens Peter Sørensen Christin Tuxen Chief Analyst Chief Analyst Chief Analyst +45 45 13
More informationSwedavia AB. Marketweight CREDIT & CORP BONDS RESEARCH. Q2 17: Good growth with high investments. Good growth with high investments
CREDIT & CORP BONDS RESEARCH Investment Research 17 August 2017 Swedavia AB Post-results Q2 17: Good growth with high investments Swedavia s revenues and earnings showed good growth in Q2, supported by
More informationYield Outlook 10Y Bund yields set to remain close to zero through 2019
Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 April 2019 10Y Bund yields set to remain close to zero through 2019 In the previous issue of, 13 March, we argued that the ECB would help keep short and
More informationDanske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News
Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 June 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers It still does not look like a deal between Greece and the three creditor institutions is near. It now appears that
More information2015: A rosy outlook. Vlad Muscalu Chief Economist
215: A rosy outlook Vlad Muscalu Chief Economist GDP forecasting a funny rollercoaster Talking about GDP Y = C + I + G + X - M GDP = Private Consumption + Investment + +Government Consumption + Exports
More informationAuction of DGB 2020 and DGB 2027
Auction of DGB 2020 and DGB 2027 Auction on Wednesday 04 October at 10:15 Maria Holm Rasmussen Fixed Income Research +45 5547 1783 maria.holm.rasmussen@nordea.com Auction of DGB 2020 and DGB 2027 DGB 2020:
More informationYield Outlook Range trading in 2017, but risk is skewed to the upside
Investment Research General Market Conditions 19 June 2017 Yield Outlook Range trading in 2017, but risk is skewed to the upside We continue to see further upside for 10Y German Bund yields on a 12-month
More informationDanske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news
Investment Research General Market Conditions 29 May 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today We expect that German inflation has remained subdued in May. Core inflation is running at a very low level and
More information05 April Government bond yields, curve slopes and spreads Swaps and Forwards Credit & money market spreads... 4
Strategy Euro Rates Update Nordea Research, April 1 US Treasury Yields Y Y 1Y 3Y.7 1.3 1.79.3 1D -. -. -1. -1. 1W -9. -. -11. -. German Benchmark Yields Y Y 1Y 3Y -. -.3.1.77 1D...1 -.1 1W.3 -. -7.1-1.
More informationBanking in a tough environment
Banking in a tough environment Carnegie Nordic Large Cap Seminar Stockholm Tonny Thierry Andersen CFO & Member of the Executive Board March 3, 2009 The real economy is now severely affected Index Industrial
More informationExecutive Board meeting. 14 December 2011
Executive Board meeting December EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced
More informationResearch Global inflation scare: Overview
Investment Research February Research Global inflation scare: Overview With the global recovery strengthening and commodity prices rising sharply, inflation has returned as a market theme. In a series
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions 24 February 2014
Investment Research General Market Conditions 24 February 2014 Finnair FY 2013 Finnair s fullyear 2013 result was burdened by a weak Q4 13 impacted by oneoff costs. Due to the divestment of assets reported
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions Tuesday, 28 August 2012
Investment Research General Market Conditions Tuesday, 28 August 2012 Danske Daily Key news US stocks closed unchanged Asian markets are slightly lower The Shanghai composite remains near a three-year
More informationPreview: Swedish T-bill auction
Preview: Swedish T-bill auction Emil Leifsson Manja Otto Alexander Reneby Rates Sales Rates Sales Rates Sales elei@danskebank.dk manot@danskebank.dk alre@danskebank.dk 15 March 2017 1 Wednesday, 15 th
More informationYield Outlook. Higher US yields to set the global yield-agenda. #1: The macroeconomic-economic backdrop is still constructive
Investment Research General Market Conditions 16 October 2018 Yield Outlook Higher US yields to set the global yield-agenda The US bond market has been setting the direction in global bond markets over
More informationPeriphery research: Ireland
Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 August 2014 Periphery research: Ireland Virtuous cycles supported by credit rating upgrades The strong Irish growth performance was confirmed in Q1 and
More informationScandinavia - Land of the true AAA s. Anders Møller Lumholtz Senior Analyst August 2013
Scandinavia - Land of the true AAA s Anders Møller Lumholtz Senior Analyst andjrg@danskebank.dk August 2013 Strong balances: Fiscal and external balances are very solid Budget bal, % of GDP CA bal. (%
More informationResearch France begins to look like a peripheral country
Investment General Market Conditions 22 March 2013 France begins to look like a peripheral country The short-term outlook for France looks more like that of a peripheral country than the strong German
More informationStrategy With fading EU political risks, global business cycle back in focus
Investment Research General Market Conditions 5 May 2017 Strategy With fading EU political risks, global business cycle back in focus Political risks in Europe fading for now Political risks in Europe
More informationRisk Factor Indices Selection and Rebalance Dates
db Index Quant 5 February 2018 dbiq Index Guide Risk Factor Indices Selection and s The report is designed to provide the details of future selection and rebalance dates of various risk factor Indices
More informationU.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE. MACRO February 5, 2014
U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE MACRO February 5, 2014 LEGAL DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker
More informationEuro Rates Update. 26 January % 0.9% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% Jan-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16
FI Strategy Nordea Research, January 1 US Treasury Yields Y Y 1Y 3Y.7 1... 1D -1.7 -. -. -. 1W.3.9 1. -1. German Benchmark Yields Y Y 1Y 3Y -. -.3. 1. 1D -. -.3-1.7-3. 1W -. -.7. -.1 German Curve Slopes
More informationSwedavia AB. Marketweight CREDIT & CORP BONDS RESEARCH. Stable credit metrics. Corporate ticker: Equity ticker:
CREDIT & CORP BONDS RESEARCH Investment Research 31 October 216 Swedavia AB Post-results Q3 16: Stable metrics as passenger traffic increased Swedavia reported stable earnings and credit metrics for Q3.
More informationECB s easing package and markets zig-zag
ECB s easing package and markets zig-zag Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg Jens Peter Sørensen Christin Tuxen Senior Analyst, Euro Macro Research Chief Analyst, Fixed Income Research Senior Analyst, FX Research
More informationCentral Banks Calendar 2015
9 april 2015 Central Banks Calendar 2015 Fed ECB - Riksbank - Norges Bank Central bank calendar 2015 2 Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee Janet L. Yellen Stanely Fischer Daniel K. Tarullo (Vacant)
More informationCommodities Forecast Update
Investment Research General Market Conditions 22 March 2012 Commodities Forecast Update Oil price forecast revised higher In the most recent issue of Commodities Quarterly from January 2012 we argued that
More informationVasakronan AB. Marketweight CREDIT & CORP BONDS RESEARCH. Healthy organic growth. Further decline in leverage. Profitability.
CREDIT & CORP BONDS RESEARCH Investment Research 5 May 2017 Post-results Vasakronan AB Q1 17: Healthy organic growth Vasakronan showed a good performance in Q1. Due to the current strong Swedish property
More information