ECB Rate Cut~ Necessary to maintain market sentiment, but actual effects are limited
|
|
- Norman Moody
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 VOL 7, NO 1 July 6, 12 ECB Rate Cut~ Necessary to maintain market sentiment, but actual effects are limited Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut the main refinancing rate from 1.% to its lowest-ever.75% on July 5. This change is the first since December 11. The ECB also cut the deposit facility rate to.%, also a first since the establishment of the ECB. Only the rate cuts were decided at this meeting, and introducing another long-term refinancing operation (LTRO), or purchasing sovereign bonds of Spain and Italy were not even discussed. ECB President Draghi identified 1) downside risks to growth have materialized, 2) inflationary pressure has been dampened, and 3) policies committed by EU leaders at the Eurozone summit late last month, as main reasons for the rate cut. Speculation for the rate cut had rapidly increased since the market had seen several weak data regarding the real economy, and especially after the agreement reached at the Eurozone summit, and some quotes indicating this rate cut by ECB members. This decision to cut rates was needed precisely at this timing in order to maintain the markets sentiment. By lowering the refinancing rate, the cost of funding for private banks will slightly improve. On the other hand, by introducing zero deposit rate, the funds which private banks had originally deposited to the ECB could be encouraged to flow to bank lending. However, this is unlikely since the demands by enterprises are weak. President Draghi revealed that the decisions made by the ECB were unanimous by all means and that this should show strength in the decision. The ECB did cut rates by just 25bps for now, but it is expected that the ECB will encourage its member states to take additional measures, and meanwhile consider the precise timing of further rate cuts or other non-standard measures that were saved until necessary. 1
2 1. Decisions by the ECB and the reasons behind them On July 5, the ECB decided to cut the main refinancing rate from 1.% to its lowest-ever.75%. This change is the first since December 11. The ECB also cut the deposit facility rate to.%, also a first since the establishment of the ECB. Only the rate cuts were decided at this meeting, and addition of another long-term refinancing operation (LTRO), or purchasing sovereign bonds of Spain and Italy that were speculated partially, were not even discussed. However, President Draghi did remind us of the decision taken by the Governing Council on June 22 concerning further measures to increase collateral availability for counterparties. Monetary policy decisions 1. Interest rate on main refinancing operations 1.%.75% 2. Interest rate on marginal lending facility 1.75% 1.5% 3. Interest rate on deposit facility.25%.% (All decisions with effect from 11 July 12) Figure 1:Main Interest Rates (%) Marginal lending facility Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 3-month EURIBOR EONIA (overnight rate) Deposit facility Source: Compiled by BTMU ERO based on Bloomberg (Year/Month) President Draghi identified 1) downside risks to the euro area growth have materialized, 2) inflationary pressure are broadly balanced, and 3) policies committed by EU leaders at the Eurozone summit late last month, as main reasons for the rate cut. President Draghi had mentioned in his press conference last month, that there were several members that voted for a rate cut, while he himself stated the effects of a rate 2
3 cut should be limited, as market functions are deteriorating. Therefore, only a few had expected the ECB to cut rates this month. However, in the middle of June, several weak data such as business sentiment were released in the Eurozone, and this was also the case for growth driver Germany. The Eurozone unemployment also reached an all-time high of 11.1% in May. On the other hand, German inflation (CPI) had dropped to 1.7% (below ECB target of close but below 2% ), and inflation for Eurozone was unchanged from last month at 2.4%. Some ECB members quoted, the ECB will consider cutting policy rates at the July meeting and there is no rule that 1.% policy rate is the lower limit. The markets speculations on ECB rate cuts were heightened especially after the Eurozone summit at the end of last month, where integration of bank supervision, capital injection to banks from ESM, and financial aid for Spain were agreed upon. Had the ECB not cut the rates at all at its July meeting, there were high chances of drastic disappointment in the market sentiment, and thus the decision was needed precisely at this timing. Figure 2:German Real GDP and PMI Figure 3:Eurozone Inflation 2. (q/q,%) (Index) 7 5. (y/y contribution ratio, %) Germany Real GDP Germany PMI Manufacturing (RHS) Growth Contraction Energy Food, tobacco Core Core inflation rate HICP Total ECB target below 2% Source: Compiled by BTMU ERO based on Eurostat and Bloomberg 25 (Year) (Year) Source: Compiled by BTMU ERO based on Eurostat 2. The Effects of the Rate Cut By lowering the refinancing rate, the cost of funding for private banks will slightly improve. Since the rates for funds received by the twin LTROs last December and in February will be the average of the main refinancing rate during the period borrowed, the burden on private banks will be lighter. On the other hand, by introducing zero deposit rate, the funds which private banks had originally deposited to the ECB could be encouraged to flow to bank lending. However, whether bank lending will be 3
4 enhanced or not will depend very much on demand. The April ECB Bank Lending Survey showed that demands plunged especially for capital expenditures. Although both short-term and long-term funds demand were projected to have been recovering recently, actual data for May showed that lending to the private sector was -.2%, the first decrease since March 1. Since the demands are weak, we cannot expect much from the zero deposit rate. Figure 4:Corporate Funds Demand (Increased - Decreased) SMEs Large companies Actual 4 3 Projection Short-term Long-term Source: Compiled by BTMU ERO based on ECB (y/y, %) Figure 5:Bank Lending to Private Sector Italy France Eurozone Germany Spain Source: Compiled by BTMU ERO based on ECB (Year) 3. Markets Reactions Regarding foreign exchange rates, the Euro fell from 1.25 USD to 1.23 USD after the rate cut announcement. Stock prices initially rose after the announcement, but since there were no other measures besides the rate cut, and President Draghi continued to express pessimistic concern for downside risks on the economy, the rise was temporary and hence fell. The long-term interest rates for peripheral countries rose, as there was no indication on restarting bond purchases. The Spanish 1 year yields rose from 6.4% to 6.8%, and Italy, from 5.8% to almost 6%.. 4
5 (USD/EUR) Figure 6:Euro Exchange Rates against JPY (RHS) against USD (JPY/EUR) 15 11/1 11/4 11/7 11/1 12/1 12/4 12/7 (Year/ month) Source: Compiled by BTMU ERO based on Bloomberg Figure 7:German Sovereign Spreads (%) (bil euro) 25 ECB weekly bond purchase (RHS) Italy(BBB+ ) Spain(Baa3 ) 11/1 11/4 11/7 11/1 12/1 12/4 12/7 NB: Ratings are the lowest of the three major rating agencies. (Year/Month) The arrow indicates negative outlook. Source: Compiled by BTMU ERO based on Bloomberg 4. What s next for ECB? President Draghi revealed that the decisions made by the ECB were unanimous by all means and that this should show strength in the decision. When asked how bad the current situation is, he answered that the global economy is definitely not at the level of the global crisis during 8~9, because real GDP growth rates are hovering at around zero percent, as opposed to their falling much further during the global crisis. ECB still expects the Eurozone economy to recover gradually towards the end of the year with overall improvement in sentiment and stabilization of external demand as its main growth drivers. On the other hand, President Draghi reiterated his concern for downside risks on the economy. Steps towards the sovereign crisis must still be taken for several years. Agreement reached at the EU summit last month needs to be put in place and its progress must be monitored closely. The ECB only cut rates by just 25bps for now, but it is expected that the ECB will encourage its member states to take additional measures, and meanwhile consider the precise timing of further rate cuts or other non-standard measures that were saved until necessary. Masayo Taiko (masayo_taiko@mufg.jp) The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. Economic Research Office 2-7-1, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo , Japan 5
6 This report is intended only for information purposes and shall not be construed as solicitation to take any action such as purchasing/selling/investing financial market products. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment. This report is based on information believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. The contents of the report may be revised without advance notice. Also, this report is a literary work protected by the copyright act. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without express statement of its source. 6
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 06 NOVEMBER 2014 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 24 DECEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 30 MARCH 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 28 JANUARY 2016 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 03 NOVEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 7 MAY 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi UFJ,
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 30 NOVEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 01 OCTOBER 2014 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 13 JULY 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Hungary
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Hungary 6 AUGUST 2015 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ,
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 4 MARCH 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Poland
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Poland. 6 OCTOBER 2015 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ,
More informationThe Outlook for European Economies
The Outlook for European Economies Domestic demand-led moderate economic growth forecast to continue REIKO SHINOHARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO SHIN TAKAYAMA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE LONDON MUFG Bank,
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators The Czech Republic
Main Economic & Financial Indicators The Czech Republic 15 OCTOBER 215 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-()2-7577-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
More informationEuro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective
Euro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective Member of Executive Board Structure of the presentation: 1. Where do we come from? ECB s monetary policy set up and main reactions
More informationZenith Monthly Economic Report December 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationThe ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization
Europe Insights Monthly update on European Markets June 27 The ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization Summary In the Spotlight. This month, we focus on the European Central Bank s (ECB) June
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationlakyara vol.146 Government bond purchase by the ECB Tetsuya Inoue 27. August. 2012
lakyara Government bond purchase by the ECB Tetsuya Inoue 27. August. 2012 Whatever it takes Coming on the heels of ECB President Draghi's speech in London in late July, the ECB's Governing Council meeting
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators UK
Main Economic & Financial Indicators UK 5 AUGUST 2014 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi UFJ,
More informationTHE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce Contents Global and European economy UK economy Prospects for individuals and businesses Concluding remarks what next? Global and European
More informationMonitor Euro area deflation
Investment Research General Market Conditions 17 July 2014 Euro area deflation Inflation outlook Euro inflation remained very low at 0.5% in June and is still far below the ECB s target. In response, the
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 22, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The U.S economy and inflation expanded at a Modest to Moderate pace during December 2017, while wages continued to push higher according to the Federal
More informationManagement Report. Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A.
Management Report Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A. Summary of Management Report International Economic Framework The year under review was marked by a slowdown in global economic activity and GDP
More informationEurozone. Outlook for. Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast. Summer edition 2012
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition 2012 Outlook for Published in collaboration with Andy Baldwin Head of Financial Services Europe, Middle East, India and Africa With key national
More informationGlobal FX 3 Jan 2012
Global FX Jan The euro area s sovereign debt crisis has been dominating trading in financial markets over the past year and the currency market was no exception. The region s debt problems spread from
More informationEconomic Monthly [Japan]
Corporate Capital Investment is Reviewed due to R&D Capitalization Economic Monthly [Japan] TOORU KANAHORI YUUSUKE YOKOTA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 20 FEBRUARY 2017 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON
More informationThe Global Economy Modest Improvement
Title line 1 Title line 2 The Global Economy Modest Improvement Name David Katsnelson, Director Title, date RISI Macroeconomic Service 3 June, 2015 1 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. China 3. External Environment
More informationECB policy: how to taper without causing a tantrum?
Europe Insights Monthly update on European Markets August 217 ECB policy: how to taper without causing a tantrum? Summary In the Spotlight. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already reduced monthly purchases
More informationThe Outlook for European Economies
The Outlook for European Economies Economy expected to remain robust despite heightening risk of Brexit standstill YUKA MAEHARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO SHIN TAKAYAMA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE LONDON
More informationForeign Exchange Outlook. Making Progress
2013-14 Foreign Exchange Outlook Making Progress Camilla Sutton Chief Currency Strategist 2012 Forecast vs Performance SCOTIABANK FORECASTS VS ACTUAL RETURNS (2012) 8 4 % return 0 JPY CAD GBP AUD EUR -4-8
More informationTREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS
EMBARGOED: FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M., EDT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 2, TREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS During the second quarter of, the dollar appreciated 3.3 percent against the euro
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted
June 11, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted central bank to act accordingly. The Central Bank of Turky and The Reserve Bank of
More informationOutlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007
VOL2.NO.2 January 2007 Outlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007 Economic recovery surpasses Izanagi in length The economy is continuing its longest post-war economic recovery. Nearly five years have passed
More informationGlobal FX 2 Apr 2012
Global FX 2 Apr 2012 Uncertainty reigned in the currency market over the past two weeks, with the dollar fluctuating in rather tight ranges against most other major currencies. The greenback initially
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting
More informationFINANCIAL MARKETS IN EARLY AUGUST 2011 AND THE ECB S MONETARY POLICY MEASURES
Chart 28 Implied forward overnight interest rates (percentages per annum; daily data) 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 7 September 211 31 May 211.. 211 213 215 217 219 221 Sources:, EuroMTS (underlying
More informationLatvia SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 18 June 2012
Latvia SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 18 June 1 Analyst: Per A. Hammarlund. Tel: +()8-7 9. E-mail: per.hammarlund@seb.se Strengths Country Risk Factors: Latvia Weaknesses Recovering GDP growth
More informationRecent developments in the euro money market. Money Market Contact Group Frankfurt, 18 September 2012
Recent developments in the euro money market Money Market Contact Group Frankfurt, 18 September 2012 ECB developments and announcements I 5 July 2012 The ECB reduced by 25 basis points the interest rate
More informationGlobal Markets Weekly Report 17 th December Ehsan Khoman Head of MENA Research and Strategy
Global Markets Weekly Report 17 th December 218 Ehsan Khoman Head of MENA Research and Strategy ehsan.khoman@ae.mufg.jp 1 8 6 4 2-2 -6-8 -1 Global Bond Yields Global bond yields were mixed as first a risk-on
More informationEuro Zone Update: On the mend
Euro Zone Update: On the mend OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy 2 Feb 214 Executive Summary The Euro Zone economy has emerged from recession in the second half of 213, and growth is forecast to accelerate
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators UK
Main Economic & Financial Indicators UK 17 MAY 217 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-()2-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 03, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Central banker s comments dominated
More informationEconomic Monthly [Japan]
Economic Monthly [Japan] A strong wage hike at the annual wage negotiations will be vital in overcoming deflation TOORU KANAHORI KEI SHIMOZATO ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 26 FEBRUARY 2018 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE
More informationItaly s Eurozone Trap
Italy s Eurozone Trap Ashoka Mody Based on EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts, New York: Oxford University Press, June 2018. Italy needed and needs the crutch of a depreciating currency to offset its abysmal
More informationJapan Economic Monthly
Japan Economic Monthly Signs of a Full-Scale Capital Expenditures Recovery among large Enterprises REI TSURUTA TOORU KANAHORI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 1 SEPTEMBER (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON
More informationEurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 31, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
More informationEditor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events 31 Jul 6 Aug, 2017
Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events 31 Jul 6 Aug, 2017 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Friday, 21 July 2017 Agency previous new action Greece S&P B- / Stable B- /
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review April 2019 Dr. Gil Michael Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist Economics Department, Capital Markets Division 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page
More informationPotential Gains from the Reform Package
Chart 1 Potential Gains from the Reform Package GDP per capita, % 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Ireland Germany Finland Portugal Spain France Greece Note: The estimated cumulative GDP impact from structural reforms
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationEurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain
More informationThe Forex Market in March 2007
1 The Forex Market in March 2007 US Dollar : USD The US dollar in March continued to weaken from prior month compared with the euro and the yen with exchange rates averaging at US$ 1.3251 per euro and
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationEconomic Monthly [Japan]
Economic Monthly [Japan] New targets set in the new economic policy package TOORU KANAHORI YUUSUKE YOKOTA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 9 JANUARY 8 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON DECEMBER ) The Bank
More informationMarkit economic overview
Markit Economics Markit economic overview Global economic growth weakest since late-2012 April 13 th 2016 Global economic growth weakest since late-2012 Global economic growth was running at its weakest
More informationEurozone fiscal highlights
Europe Insights Monthly update on European Markets May 18 Eurozone fiscal highlights Summary In the Spotlight. The eurozone's budget deficit shrank to -.9% of GDP in 17 (versus -1.5% in 16), its best result
More informationWhy European equity valuations should approach the US
Insights Monthly update on an Markets October 2017 Why an equity valuations should approach the US Summary Hot Topic. Over the last 20 years, the an market has traded at a valuation discount to that of
More informationJanuary Effect Boosts Equities
Analyst Tan Xuan +6565316001 tanx@phillip.com.sg January Effect Boosts Equities Executive Summary Equities Positive investors sentiments and improving macroeconomics in US gave a boost to global equities
More informationThe Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing
More informationZenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly October 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA Chief Economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 Uncertainty about US monetary
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationJune 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating
June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating Since the lows of 2011, global equities have rallied 30% while Earnings per Share remained flat. This has been the biggest mid-cycle re-rating of global
More informationEuro, sovereign debt, liquidity and other issues: questions and answers from BNP Paribas
Euro, sovereign debt, liquidity and other issues: questions and answers from BNP Paribas After being asked a number of questions about the bank and the Eurozone, we have decided to publish the answers
More informationPortuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2018
Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 2 nd quarter 218 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 26 th September of 218. Macroeconomic indicators and banking system data
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Modest
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationFixed Income Markets: Experiencing Historic Lows
Fixed Income Markets: Experiencing Historic Lows Prepared: June 7, 2012 Overview How low can they go? This seemed to be the question the fixed income markets tried to answer on June 1st. Ten-year yields
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Ireland
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD. » The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY
August 06, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in almost a decade. Raising the interest rate is suggesting that inflation continues
More informationThe Outlook for European Economies
The Outlook for European Economies Uncertainty regarding Brexit lingers yet economic recovery continues unimpeded YUKA MAEHARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO SHIN TAKAYAMA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE LONDON
More informationGlobal Financial Crisis and Changes in Capital Flows of India
VOL3. NO4. December 28 Global Financial Crisis and Changes in Capital Flows of India Amid the continuing turmoil in the global financial markets triggered by the financial crisis in the United States,
More informationEconomic Monthly [Japan]
Economic Monthly [Japan] The current economic expansion appears to be the second longest in the post-war period TOORU KANAHORI KEI SHIMOZATO ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE NOVEMBER (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION
More informationRecent Developments Money Market MMCG Meeting
Recent Developments Money Market MMCG Meeting 18.03.04 Schedule Major Events Capital Markets Money Market Outlook Regulatory Credit Provision FRA EONIA FWD EONIA Monetary Policy Equity Markets Liquidity
More informationThe European Economy. Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland. December 2012
The European Economy Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland December 212 Euro area economy now back in recession as GDP contracts in 3 of the past 4 quarters Euro Area Real GDP Growth, % 1.5 1..5.
More informationNew information since the October 2011 Monetary Policy Report (3/11) 1
Meeting 14 March 2012 New information since the October 2011 Monetary Policy Report (3/11) 1 International economy According to preliminary figures, GDP for Norway s main trading partners fell by 0.2 percent
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland
More informationPerspectives: The impact of QE on European property markets
April 15 Perspectives: The impact of QE on European property markets The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to inject 1.1 trillion into the eurozone economy through its new quantitative easing (QE) programme
More informationEurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Autumn edition September 2011
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Autumn edition September 2011 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia
More informationFinancial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks John Praveen
More information1. THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS
3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 16 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 16 1. THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS 1.1. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT According to the most recent IMF estimates, world economic activity grew by 3.1%
More informationThe Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016
Editor: Carl Hammer The Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016 Editor: Benjamin Dousa Monday 4, 08.30 SWE: PMI manufacturing (Dec) Index SEB Cons. Prev PMI 55.0 --- 54.9 Manufacturing confidence according
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? North American Conference San Francisco October 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationPostponed recovery. The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 INSEE CONJONCTURE
INSEE CONJONCTURE CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 Postponed recovery The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in Q2. While GDP rebounded in the United States and remained dynamic in the United
More informationCurrent Situation, Outlook, and Challenges
's Economy: Current Situation, Outlook, and Challenges November 8, Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Chart The Bank of 's Economic and Price Forecasts A. Real GDP B. CPI (all items less fresh food)..
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 12, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» In the early hours of last Friday, U.S Congress approved a major budget deal that opens the door for more increase in defense and non-defense spending
More informationECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION IKV BRIEF 2010 THE DEBT CRISIS IN GREECE AND THE EURO ZONE
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION IKV BRIEF 2010 April 2010 Prepared by: Sema Gençay ÇAPANOĞLU (scapanoglu@ikv.org.tr) THE DEBT CRISIS IN GREECE AND THE EURO ZONE Greece is struggling with the most serious
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
October 09, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The storm impacted job report showed
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. April 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the
More informationIndustrial orders, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) -2.7% Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) -0.8% Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y 5.0%
Weekly 2018 Week 01 MARTIN LOBOTKA, (+420) 777 027 165, MLobotka@42fs.com, Research@42fs.com CALENDAR DAY DATE TIME (CET)* MARKET RELEASE CONSENSUS** Monday 7-Jan-19 8:00 GER Retail sales, Nov'18, y/y
More informationInsolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017
Insolvency forecasts Economic Research August 2017 Summary We present our new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.
More informationOnline Appendixes to Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective
Online Appendixes to Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective Elena Bobeica and Marek Jarociński European Central Bank Author e-mails: elena.bobeica@ecb.int and marek.jarocinski@ecb.int.
More informationAUD-EUR OUTLOOK Risk Appetite is the Key Wednesday, 25 January 2012 The Australian dollar has recently soared to record highs against the euro, reflecting heightened concerns about European sovereign risk,
More informationMonthly Economic Report
Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were
More information