Aging, the Future of Work and Sustainability of Pension System
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1 Aging, the Future of Work and Sustainability of Pension System WKÖ & Salzburg Global Seminar Event Dénes Kucsera Agenda Austria Vienna, Austria November 5, 2015
2 Introduction Increasing pressure on the pension system because of the demographic trends Rising life expectancy, low fertility rate, changes in the relative cohort sizes 86,00 84,00 82,00 80,00 78,00 76,00 74,00 72, Figure: Life expectancy of a 60-year old person in Austria Increasing dependency ratio
3 The Austrian Pension System Formula 45/65/80 After 45 years of insurance, at the retirement age of 65 years, 80% of average lifetime income is guaranteed Yearly 1.78% of total earnings are credited to the personal notional account Early/late retirement between 62 and 68 years (with 37.5 years of insurance) Pension contributions adjusted by the growth rate of the average wages, existing pensions by the inflation No automatic adjustment mechanism to demographic changes
4 Balanced Pension System No adjustment unbalanced pension system Total Contribution + Goverment Contribution = Total Expenses τ t W t L t + B t = P t R t Possibilities for an adjustment: higher contribution rate (τ), lower pension (P), higher government contribution (B), higher (effective or statutory) retirement age - or a combination of these.
5 Demographic Effects in Austria Possible corrections on fiscal sustainability of the Austrian pension system and their effect Three scenarios No correction: basic model based on the long-term forecasts of Austrian Pension Commission Solely correction over the effective retirement age: yearly increase by one, two and three months Correction over effective and statutory retirement age: simultaneous yearly increase by one, two and three months
6 Results: Basic Model Figure: Government contribution as a percent of the GDP (Index, 2014=100)
7 Results: Correction over the Effective Retirement Age Figure: Government contribution as a percent of the GDP (Index, 2014=100)
8 Results: Correction over the Effective and Statutory Retirement Age Figure: Government contribution as a percent of the GDP (Index, 2014=100)
9 International Comparison Denmark Netherland Sweden Australia Switzerland Singapore Chile Finland Canada USA Mexico UK South Africa Korea Poland Indonesia India Germany France Ireland China Japan Brazil Austria Italy Figure: Sustainability Sub-Index Values of the Mercer Pension Index (2015)
10 How do other EU countries control for increasing life expectancy? Sweden: Contributions paid into a personal notional account. Flexible retirement between 61 and 69 years. The annual pension at the time of retirement is a fraction of the accumulated capital and the remaining life expectancy. The Netherlands: Statutory pension age increased to 67 years until Thereafter adjusted by the increase of the life expectancy. Denmark: Semi-automatic mechanism from 2027 on. The statutory retirement age linked to life expectancy at age 60 with a five-year lag between the time of the change in life expectancy and the adjustment of the pension age.
11 Summary Demographic changes affect pension systems significantly A correction over the increase of effective retirement age might not stabilize the pension system Automatic adjustment of the statutory retirement age by the increase of the life expectancy is recommended Austria: adjustment of Formula 45/65/80 - constant relationship between the years of contributions and the expected years in pension Cohort effects can also unbalance the pension system. Validation over the growth rate of the total wages might bring a fairer cost redistribution over generations
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