Japanese Policy Response to the Dynamic Growth in Asia. January 17-18, 2011 Keisuke SADAMORI, METI
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1 ese Policy Response to the Dynamic Growth in Asia January 17-18, 2011 Keisuke SADAMORI, METI 1
2 Emerging countries are estimated to achieve high GDP growth in World GDP Shares in 2009 and Outlook for 2010 GDP growth (%) 10 20% 40% 60% 80% 10.0% 8.8% 5 3.1% 3.1% 3.7% 5.5% 5.4% 4.7% 4.0% World average 4.2% % States 1.0% Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April % Euro Area 1.9% 8.7% 1.3% 3.8% 2.3% Canada Kingdom Advanced countries World GDP 2.1% 2.2% share in % 8.5% 2.1% 2.7% 4.9% 8.3% Other advanced countries 69.1% 30.9% India Emerging countries Brazil Russia ASEAN5 Middle East and Africa Other emerging/developing countries 2
3 We decided to realize the New Growth Strategy based on a determination to open the country Policy Response Targeting Emerging Markets Opening up (1) Focusing on innovation and marketing. (2) Strategies setting of specifications. (3) Maintaining value of made in brand. (4) Assisting infrastructure development in Asia. (5) Promoting environment-friendly infrastructure/system. (1) Facilitating the flow of human resources, goods, money, and knowledge. (2) Promoting as a base for corporate activities. (3) Establishing good environment for knowledge- based economy. Contributing to Development of Global Economic Frameworks 1. Promoting regional economic integration :EPA/FTA 2. Improving market environment :BITs, Standards 3.WTO (DDA) 4.-chaired APEC2010 3
4 Changes in Values of Trade (Parts/Components) Between,, and ASEAN NIES NIES ($ billion) ASEAN ($ billion) ASEAN4 Note: NIES denotes South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Source: RIETI, "RIETI-TID 2009." 4
5 Prospects for Personal Consumption in Asian Countries/Regions ($ trillion) Prospects for Personal Consumption in Asian Countries/Regions Note: On a nominal basis. Converted into dollars. Source: Euromonitor International India ASEAN NIEs3 India States +ASEAN +NIEs EU Asia total NIEs3 ASEAN India 5
6 Changes in the Population of Asia's Middle-Income Household (million people) 220 Others India 4.3 times million people times Other countries /regions 410 million people India 620 million people 970 million people Estimated figures Notes: Number of households by household disposable income. "Asia" denotes, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Figures for 2010, 2015, and 2020 are estimates by Euromonitor. Source: Euromonitor International * Asia's middle-income segment denotes the segment with household disposable income of $5,000 or more and less than $35,000. Asia's high-income segment denotes the segment with household disposable income of $35,000 or more. 6
7 Changes in the Population of Asia's High-Income Household (million people) Others India times 34 Asia(excluding ) : 92 million people Asia (excluding ): 62 million people Asia(excluding ) Asia(excluding ) times Asia(excluding ) 226 Asia(excluding ) Other countries /regions 79 million people India 21 million people 126 million people Notes: Number of households by household disposable income. "Asia" denotes, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Calculated by multiplying the percentage of households of each income segment by the population. Source: Euromonitor International Estimated figures 7
8 Ranking of Market Size for Major Goods 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Automobiles States Germany Brazil France Italy India Kingdom Canada Desktop PCs Brazil States France Kingdom Spain Poland Australia Russia Digital TVs States Kingdom Germany France Italy Spain Brazil Canada Mobile phones States France India Russia Mexico South Korea Brazil Germany Toiletry products /cosmetics States Brazil Germany France Kingdom Italy Spain Russia Notes: The ranking for "automobiles" is based on the number of cars, and that for other goods is based on the retail sales value. Values for "toiletry products/cosmetics" and "automobiles" are those for 2008, and the values for other goods are those for The shaded cells indicate BRICs countries. Sources: MarkLines, Co., Ltd. (automobiles), Euromonitor International 2010 (other goods). 8
9 Toward Asia-wide FTAs ASEAN-centered FTAs India Already in force Already in force South Korea Already in force Already in force --South Korea ASEAN+3 (EAFTA) (ASEAN,,, South Korea) APEC (FTAAP) States Canada Mexico Peru Chile Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei Russia Papua New Guinea Among the ten ASEAN countries, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos are not APEC members. TPP Australia /New Zealand Already in force ASEAN + 6 (CEPEA) (ASEAN+ 日中韓印豪 NZ) Vietnam Viet Nam Singapore Brunei TPP States Peru Australia New Zealand Chile 9
10 Wide-area development projects under way in Asia Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor Delhi Mumbai Chennai Mekong-India Industrial Corridor Indonesia Economic Development Corridors IMT Growth Triangle Greater Mekong Sub-region Program Brunei Malaysia BIMP Wide-Area Development Philippines Ho Chi Minh Indonesia And, we want to strengthen international competitiveness of infrastructure related industries The -Viet Nam Joint Statement on the Comprehensive Development of Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity in Asia stipulates that the Vietnamese government has chosen as its partner for building the nuclear power plant (second site) planned in Ninh Thuan Province in the southern region of Viet Nam. (October31, 2010) 10
11 Total Impressions of Foreign Products in Major Asian Cities ese products European products US products South Korean products Chinese products Average for six items (1) 43.0 (2) 34.3 (3) High quality (1) 70.0 (2) 46.9 (3) Cool/stylish (1) 43.6 (3) 39.6 (2) Original and characteristic (1) 39.7 (2) 35.3 (3) Fun (1) 35.0 (2) 27.4 (3) Lively and vigorous (2) (3) 31.6 (1) 41.5 (3) Fairly priced (1) (2) 29.3 (3) 26.0 Note: 1. (1), (2), and (3) show the top three ranks for each item. 2. Values are the average values of the 14 cities. 3. Target countries/regions: (Beijing, Shanghai), Hong Kong, Taiwan (Taipei), South Korea (Seoul), Singapore, Thailand (Bangkok), Indonesia (Jakarta), Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur), Philippines (Metro Manila), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh City), India (Delhi, Mumbai), and Russia (Moscow). Source: Hakuhodo, "Emerging markets drawing attention in the world: Survey on impressions of ese products in 14 cities" (January 15, 2009). 11
12 Low profitability of ese firms Comparison of profitability (5 categories of industry) source : Industrial Structure Vision
13 ese firms have many competitors in the same industry Rolling Stock source : Industrial Structure Vision
14 Ex.1 Corporate Tax Reform in FY2011 According to FY2011 Tax Reform which was decided by Cabinet last month, the government decided to cut the corporate tax rate by 5 percentage points. Corporate Tax Rate ( ) OECD 34% 26% Asia* 28% 25% 42% 41% * Korea,Taiwan,Singapore,HongKong,Thailand, Malaysia,Indonesia,Philippines Cutting 5% from FY2011 Actual Corporate Tax Burden( average) SHARP 35.8% CANON Cannon 38.0% SAMSUNG 15.7% LG 19.2% 14
15 Ex.2 Promoting as a base for corporate activities To motivate global companies to locate in, the government will create a package of following incentives in addition to a favorable environment for businesses through cross-cutting efforts. Corporate tax >This measure, together with the corporate tax rate cut by 5%, will reduce the corporate tax rate reduced to 28.5%. *Possibly lowered to 20.4%, if local government decides to apply tax exemption. Personal income tax > Stock option tax deferred for share warrants given to a certified company s executives from its foreign parent company Patent fees > Patent fee reduction for certified R&D companies Visa status Expedited visa examination for experts expected to work for certified companies ( From 1 month to around 10 days) 15
16 Ex.3 Ex.3 Facilitation Facilitation of of industrial industrial restructuring restructuring and and consolidation consolidation conductive conducive to to profitability profitability We suggest to amend the Law on Special Measures for industrial revitalization an We innovation will submit next the session bill toof amend the Diet thewith Lawfollowing on Special views. Measures for industrial revitalization and innovation next session of diet with following views. Change of perspective in competition policy To improve the procedure for the antitrust authority to examine the corporate merger and acquisition plan. To achieve both the promotion of short-term, domestic-market-oriented competition and the enhancement of medium- to long-term competitiveness in the global market Promote swift and flexible restructuring of companies organizations Simplification of procedures for TOB Support for starting, changing, and reviving business Public loan guarantee system for business start up ventures 16
17 Ex.4 Expectation for venture capital and private equity firms as the key player of private sector. In, companies have a particular shortage of risk capital needed for new growth. High Ex. The amount of private equity investment in relation to GDP(2007) USA=1.6% EU=1.7% UK=2.1% =0.3% source: JPEA,EVCA,JETRO Risks Fundraising with risk capital Insufficient Dependent on real estate security Fundraising with corporate bonds Fund-raising with risk capital Insufficient Low Fundraising through bank finance Shallow layer of investors Formation Growth Maturity Business expansion Business revitalization A company s growth stages 17
18 Implementation of tax reform from FY2009 to enhance investment in ese companies via VC/PE funds and to utilize such funds effectively. Now, we want to promote the use of a taxfree system for foreign investors, in order to utilize the investment funds from overseas. - - In this regard, however, applies only to LPs whose joint business operations with the GP are slight. For example, the investor s holding ratio of the partnership assets is less than 25%. Now, we consolidate the model Contracts for ese Limited Partnership reflecting this tax-free system. Special Treatment of Direct PE Taxation PE : Permanent Establishment Overseas Offshore investors investing through Fund :Taxed :Gain from alienation of shares Taxed in resident country Past taxation Taxed in Fund Present Not taxed Venture/Revitalization, etc. ese investors though Fund Exception of 25/5 rule Past taxation Present Offshore investor Offshore investor Offshore investor Offshore investor Offshore investor Offshore investor Ownership at each investor level is less than 25% Fund level aggregated ownership is equal to or more than 25%, and taxed 20% 5% 5% Offshore Fund Alienation of shares (at least 5%) Owns 30% of shares ese company (Venture company/company under revitalization, etc.) Ownership at each investor level is less than 25%, and thus not taxed Fund level ownership is equal to or more than 25%, and taxed 20% 5% 5% Offshore Fund Alienation of shares (at least 5%) Owns 30% of shares ese company (Venture company/company under revitalization, etc.) 18 18
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