Colombian Oil Market

Transcription

1 Seminar zur Vorlessung Energiewirtschaft Colombian Oil Market José Luis Rivera Mican 1

2 CONTENTS Oil History in Colombia Oil Situation in Colombia Future Conclusions 2

3 1903- Loss of Panama Oil History in Colombia De Mares y Barco Concessions 1916-Tropical Oil Company, purchase the territory of the De Mares concession First discoveries: La Cira and Infantas The Country s oil property of the state. Threat to the American companies. Then the Colombian Supreme Court declare the law unconstitutional ending with the impasse that risked the Urrutia-Thompson treaty. 3

4 Oil History in Colombia The reversion of de Mares Concession" gives way to the Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos ECOPETROL assumed the direct management of the Barrancabermeja Refinery. Thirteen years later, it purchased the Cartagena Refinery, built by Intercol in Asociation Contract- Joint Venture Crude importation - Result of low exploration Discovery of the Caño Limón oilfield in association with OXY Colombia begins to export oil again 1990s- Colombia extended its oil self-sufficiency with the discovery of the Cusiana and Cupiagua giants in the Foothills of the Plains region, in association with the British Petroleum Company. 4

5 Between July 1986 and July, 1997 ECOPETROL registered more than 500 attacks. Repair costs increased to 18.7Million US$ approx. 200 Oil Production Vs. Attacks Number of Attacks Oil Production Attacks Mio.t.o.e

6 Oil Situation in Colombia 2003, the Colombian government restructured the Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos, in order to internationalize it and make it more competitive in the framework of the world hydrocarbon industry. ANH created by Decree 1760 (National Agency of Hydrocarbons) Source: ANH 6

7 Oil Situation in Colombia ECOPETROL Capitalization till 20% Sell of stocks to the public By Ed Crooks in London Published: April :04 Last updated: April :04 The estimate of recoverable heavy oil comes from a study by Halliburton, the oil services group, which suggested there were 100bn barrels in place, and a typical recovery factor of 20 per cent. Halliburton also suggested Colombia could have more than 50,000bn cubic feet of gas, about as much as Canada or the Netherlands. David Thomson of Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy, said he thought the estimate of recoverable heavy oil was probably on the hopeful side, but by no means impossible. Colombia is not like Venezuela, Bolivia or Ecuador, which have all been pursuing unfriendly policies towards business, and its geology is also relatively easy, so it is attractive. 7

8 Mio. t.o.e Colombian consumption and production A B C D Caño Limón 1200Mb War Tax Cusiana 750Mb Cupiagua 510Mb Consumption Production

9 OIL CONTRACTS IN COLOMBIA Type A B C D 50%-50% Staggered distribution Factor R Factor R 30%-70% Years Daily Prod Royalty <5Kbpd 8% Royalties 20% 20% 20% 5-125Kbpd Kbpd Kbpd >600Kbpd 8%+(PR-5K)*0.1 20% 20%+(PR-400K) % Length 28 years 28 years 28 years 28 years Accum. Prod. Partner Share Factor R Partner Share Factor R Partner Share Strategic Alliance 50% ECP 50% Partner 0-60Mb 60-90Mb Mb 50% 45% 40% >2 50% 50% 25% >2.5 70% 70% / (R-0.5) 35% Mb >150Mb 35% 30% 9

10 OIL CONTRACTS IN COLOMBIA Type A B C D 50%-50% Staggered distribution Factor R Factor R 30%-70% Years Daily Prod Royalty <5Kbpd 5% Royalties 20% 20% 20% 5-125Kbpd Kbpd Straight line till 20% Kbpd >600Kbpd Straight till 25% Length 28 years 28 years 28 years 28 years Accum. Prod. Partner Share Factor R Partner Share Factor R Partner Share Strategic Alliance 50% ECP 50% Partner 0-60Mb 60-90Mb Mb 50% 45% 40% >2 50% 50% 25% >2.5 70% 70% / (R-0.5) 35% Mb >150Mb 35% 30% 10

11 Vehicles changed to Natural Gas Mio.t.o.e Oil production Oil consumption number of vehicles No. of vehicles

12 KBPD Colombian Average Exportation Total ECOPETROL

13 Imports Source: ECOPETROL Diesel 13

14 Proved Reserves in Colombia Cupiagua Cusiana Caño Limón Thousand million barrels

15 Reserves Vs. Exploration Thousand Million Barrels reserves exploration Kilometers 2D Seismic Data

16 350 No. of Wells Vs. Oil Price Oil Price Wells Total wells Oil Price $ ECOPETROL wells

17 Oil Production Scenarios Kbpd Fields 17

18 Oil Production Scenarios Kbpd Fields 18

19 Conclusions The Colombian oil production is sensitive to several factors as security, politics, fiscal terms, difficulty because rugged nature which made it real difficult to explore and conduct operations, oil price. The government has tried to attract foreign oil companies to invest in Colombia, changing fiscal terms and the improving security for the companies. It is expected that the reactivation of exploration is translated into the addition of new proven reserves, with a view to postponing the loss of selfsupply. 19

20 Sources ANH- Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos: Ecopetrol : pdf acion+petrolera+para+la+inversion+privada+en+colombia&printsec=frontco ver&source=bl&ots=otbyoqe8l8&sig=ca4e0tpawar8ewa4arqwvjmac Ac&hl=de&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=3&ct=result#PPA7,M1 20

21 Thank you for your attention 21