International treaty examination of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

Transcription

1 International treaty examination of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) Report of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee May 2018 Contents Recommendation... 2 Introduction to the CPTPP... 2 Differences between the TPP and the CPTPP... 2 Reasons why New Zealand signed the CPTPP... 3 Summary of issues discussed with submitters... 5 Appendix A... 8 Appendix B... 9 Simon O Connor Chairperson

2 COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) Recommendation The Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee has conducted the international treaty examination of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The committee recommends that the House take note of its report and note that the Government intends the treaty to be implemented through a bill. Introduction to the CPTPP The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a trade and investment agreement between 11 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Those countries are New Zealand, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, and Viet Nam. The CPTPP is based on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) signed by the same countries, as well as the United States, on 4 February The Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee of the previous Parliament reported on the TPP in May In January 2017 the US withdrew from the TPP. The New Zealand Government of the day was disappointed with this decision, but considered the substance of the agreement to be worth pursuing. Therefore, New Zealand actively led efforts to persuade the other TPP countries of this. The resulting CPTPP was signed on 8 March 2018 by the current Government. Entry into force The CPTPP would enter into force 60 days after at least six of the CPTPP countries have completed their domestic legal procedures and notified the depositary country (New Zealand) of this. New Zealand aims to be among the first countries to complete its domestic requirements. This would mean making the legislative changes that are required to comply with CPTPP obligations, enabling New Zealand to ratify the agreement, before the end of Differences between the TPP and the CPTPP The CPTPP would suspend 22 items from the TPP The CPTPP would suspend 22 items that were included in the TPP. The suspensions are explained in the National Interest Analysis (NIA) which accompanies this report. They include provisions in the areas of investment, intellectual property, and pharmaceuticals that 1 You can read the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee s report on the Trans-Pacific Partnership on the Parliament website. 2

3 COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) we know were of concern to New Zealanders. The suspensions in these areas would have the following effects: Private companies that enter into an investment contract with the Government would not be able to use the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions if there was a dispute about the contract. New Zealand would no longer be required to extend the term of protection for copyright from 50 to 70 years, as specified in the TPP. The long-term cost of this extension to New Zealand consumers was estimated to be $55 million per year. Pharmac s purchasing model would remain protected, including its ability to continue to negotiate the best price for medicines for New Zealanders. The cost of implementing the TPP s changes concerning Pharmac was expected to cost New Zealand an initial $4.5 million, and $2.2 million a year thereafter. How the suspended items could enter into force We understand that the suspensions would not automatically enter into force if the US were to join the CPTPP. Article 2 of the agreement says that all 11 countries must agree to implement a specific suspended provision before it could enter into force. Important outcomes reconfirmed and new commitments secured The negotiators managed to reconfirm a number of important outcomes of the TPP, and to achieve several new treaty-level commitments. They include the following: Reconfirmation of New Zealand s treaty-status side letter with Australia, which excludes ISDS between the two countries. This would mean that up to 80 percent of investment into New Zealand would be protected from use of the ISDS provisions in the CPTPP. The signing of treaty-status side letters between New Zealand and Brunei, Malaysia, Peru, and Viet Nam which either exclude ISDS or require prior consent by both Governments. Reconfirmation of the right to regulate in the public interest, and the safeguards that mitigate as far as possible the risk of being successfully sued by a private investor. The issuing of a Joint Declaration on ISDS by New Zealand, Chile, and Canada. This underlines that, in future reviews of the CPTPP, views on process and substance concerning ISDS will be taken into account. Reconfirmation of the Treaty of Waitangi exception that allows the Government to adopt any policy it considers necessary to fulfil its obligations to Māori without being obliged to offer equivalent treatment to persons from other CPTPP countries. Preserving the Pharmac model and its ability to prioritise its spending and negotiate the best price for medicines. Reasons why New Zealand signed the CPTPP New Zealand concluded and signed the CPTPP for strategic, commercial, and sustainability reasons. We outline these below. 3

4 COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) Strategic reasons for signing the CPTPP Being part of the CPTPP would place New Zealand at the centre of the evolving regional economic architecture. This means New Zealand would be able to help shape and inform the rules in the agreement as it expands and develops over time. New Zealand would also be in a position to negotiate with partners seeking to join the agreement. It also affirms, strengthens, and aligns the rules-based system. Commercial reasons for signing the CPTPP New Zealand s network of free trade agreements would cover 65 percent of exports once the CPTPP entered into force. New Zealand exports $15 billion of goods and $6.8 billion of services to CPTPP partners. In total, 64 percent of New Zealand s foreign direct investment ($66 billion) comes from CPTPP members. The CPTPP effectively delivers four new free trade agreements, with Canada, Japan, Mexico, and Peru. It provides additional and enhanced benefits and preferences over and above the existing World Trade Organization benefits. Once fully implemented, the CPTPP has the potential to deliver an estimated $222.4 million of tariff savings annually, based on current exports. Of those tariff savings, $95.1 million would accrue as soon as the CPTPP entered into force. The experience with the China trade agreement indicates that savings are likely to be greater than this. New Zealand s exports to China were estimated to grow by 123 percent over a 20-year period as a result of that agreement. However, in the 10 years since its entry into force in 2008, exports have already expanded by 429 percent. Sustainability reasons for signing the CPTPP The CPTPP contains the most comprehensive outcomes for sustainability involving labour and the environment that New Zealand has achieved in a free trade agreement. For the first time the provisions are also legally enforceable. However, some CPTPP countries, such as Viet Nam, have been given more time to comply with some of the provisions before other parties have recourse to trade sanctions. The countries that have signed the CPTPP have agreed to adopt and maintain in their laws and practice the internationally-recognised labour rights in the 1998 International Labour Organization Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work. 2 They have also agreed to adopt and maintain laws governing acceptable conditions of work with regard to minimum wages, hours of work, and occupational safety and health. The CPTPP includes a legal prohibition on granting or maintaining subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported, or unregulated fishing, or that negatively affect over-fished stocks. This is a substantive contribution to achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal 14. This goal is about fish subsidies and addressing collapsing fishing stocks before These are freedom of association, the promotion of collective bargaining, non-discrimination in employment, the elimination of forced labour and abolition of child labour, and, for the purposes of the CPTPP, prohibition of the worst forms of child labour. 4

5 COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) Summary of issues discussed with submitters Many submitters, notably those opposed to the CPTPP, believe that the changes from the TPP do not substantively address their concerns. They consider that the CPTPP is effectively the same as the TPP. Detailed independent analysis of CPTPP sought Some individuals and organisations were critical of the fact that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade negotiated the CPTPP and also wrote the National Interest Analysis (NIA) on the agreement. They consider that because of this the NIA lacks credibility. They also consider that the NIA does not provide the scope and depth required for a complex and farreaching legal document. These submitters would like a genuinely independent cost benefit analysis as well as a human rights impact analysis that covers areas including social and environmental determinants of health, and global health issues such as climate change and antibiotic resistance. They asked that the analysis be based on the text of the agreement and include input from sector experts. They said it should also consider New Zealand s ability to continue its current policies and develop and implement future policies. Investor-State dispute settlement and sovereignty We discussed some submitters concerns about the effect the CPTPP would have on the sovereign rights of New Zealanders to determine their own future through an elected Parliament. In particular, these submitters consider that the ISDS provisions unnecessarily empower and protect international investors. Some submitters believe that the threat of substantial awards against governments is a strong disincentive for the New Zealand Government to act in the interests of New Zealanders when those interests conflict with those of CPTPP investors. Submitters consider that this could have a chilling effect on the Government s ability to make policy and regulate in areas including labour law and the mitigation of climate change. We also discussed the CPTPP s relationship with New Zealand s many international obligations, including the Paris Agreement to address climate change, and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We understand that this is problematic because many of these obligations are not enforceable, but the CPTPP contains enforcement mechanisms. Two dispute settlement mechanisms in CPTPP We understand that the CPTPP provides for two dispute settlement mechanisms: a government-to-government system to resolve disputes in the agreement, and ISDS. The ISDS mechanism provides for the settlement of disputes between foreign investors and the Government of the country in which the investment is made. Application of ISDS in CPTPP In the CPTPP, ISDS only applies to the Investment chapter and limited investment-related elements of the Financial Services chapter. The scope of the ISDS mechanism is narrower that it was in the TPP. Claims are no longer permitted in relation to investment contracts and 5

6 COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) approval. This means that private companies which enter into an investment contract with the Government would not be able to use ISDS if there were a dispute about that contract. Decisions made under the Overseas Investment Act 2005 are also not subject to ISDS. Suspensions around the minimum standard of treatment concerning financial services further reduce the risk of successful claims under the CPTPP being taken against New Zealand. The minimum standard of treatment is an obligation that forms part of the body of customary international law, to accord fair and equitable treatment to covered investments, and not to deny justice. Side letters and joint declaration As we noted above, side letters have been secured with Brunei, Malaysia, Peru, and Viet Nam. These either rule out ISDS or make the use of it subject to the consent of the governments concerned. The side letter with Australia has also been retained. The Joint Declaration on ISDS made by Canada, Chile, and New Zealand reaffirms each Government s right to regulate. It also commits these countries to working together to take into account evolving views on ISDS and to promote greater transparency. Safeguards to protect the Government s right to regulate in the public interest The CPTPP has retained the strong safeguards to protect the Government s right to regulate in the public interest and prevent unwarranted claims. 3 The safeguards mean that the chance of the New Zealand Government being successfully sued for measures related to public education, health, and other social services is low. A specific provision rules out cases relating to tobacco-control measures. ISDS not to be included in future agreements We have been advised that the Government will not include ISDS in future agreements. We are interested in what alternative arrangements are being considered by other countries, for example the European Union. We understand that South Africa has replaced its bilateral investment treaties with a domestic law that treats foreign and local investors the same. Brazil has a new model investment agreement that has no ISDS, and India s model bilateral investment treaty gives preference to domestic courts. Industry group perspectives Industry groups were supportive of the CPTPP and outlined the extent of the benefits including tariff reductions, and the reduction of non-tariff barriers. We discussed the potential for the creation of jobs and while submitters anticipated the creation of more jobs they were not able to provide specific details. Scope of the agreement Many submitters expressed a view that the CPTPP should include a wider array of obligations for climate, environment, labour, and indigenous rights. Others noted that this is only a trade agreement. 3 Please see annex 4 of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade s Opening Statement on the CPTPP for a list of the ISDS safeguards. This is available on the Parliament website at 6

7 COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) The Treaty of Waitangi exception Some submitters consider that the Treaty of Waitangi exception that is included in the CPTPP is not sufficient to protect Māori rights. They say that this exception has been included in New Zealand s agreements since the Singapore free trade agreement in 2001, without any review of its adequacy. However, agreements since then have become much broader in scope. Some submitters told us that in 2016 the Waitangi Tribunal reported on the Treaty of Waitangi exception in the TPP agreement (which is now included in the CPTPP). Although the Tribunal found that the exception offered a reasonable degree of protection to Māori interests, it highlighted serious concerns about ISDS and considered that further scrutiny, debate, and dialogue were necessary. We heard that the Waitangi Tribunal also said that the Treaty of Waitangi exception may not encompass the full extent of the Treaty relationship. This is because it only covers Crown actions that give preference to Māori, not laws or policies that are designed to give effect to Treaty of Waitangi rights but are applied more generally. This could include regulating water, mining, or fisheries. Submitters said the Waitangi Tribunal recommended that the Crown adopt a protocol that would govern New Zealand s procedure should it become a party to an ISDS claim in which the Treaty of Waitangi exception clause was relevant. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade told us that it is now working on this in consultation with Māori. 7

8 COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) Appendix A Committee procedure This treaty was referred to us on 13 March We met between 22 March and 24 May 2018 to consider it. We called for public submissions with a closing date of 18 April We received 427 submissions from organisations and individuals and heard oral evidence from 69 submitters. We heard evidence in Auckland, as well as Wellington. Committee members Simon O Connor (Chairperson) Hon Gerry Brownlee (until 21 March 2018) Golriz Ghahraman Hon Willie Jackson Hon Tim Macindoe (from 21 March 2018) Hon Todd McClay Hon Mark Mitchell (until 21 March 2018) Christopher Penk (from 21 March 2018) Louisa Wall Dr Duncan Webb 8

9 COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) Appendix B National Interest Analysis The National Interest Analysis, prepared by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, is attached. 9

10 Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership National Interest Analysis March 2018

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12 Table of Contents Table of Contents Frequently Used Acronyms and Terms 1 1 Executive summary 3 2 Nature and timing of proposed treaty action 13 3 Reasons for New Zealand becoming a Party to the Treaty Enhanced trade and economic linkages New market access opportunities Greater coherence of trade rules Advancement of New Zealand s strategic interests Opportunities for new membership The consequences of New Zealand not joining 19 4 Advantages and disadvantages to New Zealand of the treaty entering into force and not entering into force for New Zealand Trade in Goods Rules of Origin Textiles Customs Trade Remedies Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Investment (including Investor-State Dispute Settlement) Cross-Border Trade in Services Financial Services Temporary Entry Telecommunications Electronic-Commerce 50 Page 1

13 Table of Contents 4.14 Government Procurement Competition Policy State-Owned Enterprises Intellectual Property Intellectual Property: UPOV Intellectual Property: Other IP Treaties Labour Environment Cooperation and Capacity Building Competitiveness and Business Facilitation Development Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Regulatory Coherence Transparency and Anti-corruption Legal and Institutional Issues 78 5 Legal obligations which would be imposed on New Zealand by the treaty action, the position in respect of reservations to the treaty, and an outline of any dispute settlement mechanisms Initial Provisions and General Definitions National Treatment and Market Access for Goods Rules of Origin and Origin Procedures Textile and Apparel Goods Customs Administration and Trade Facilitation Trade Remedies Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures Technical Barriers to Trade Investment Cross-Border Trade in Services Financial Services Temporary Entry for Business Persons Telecommunications Electronic Commerce 140 Page 2

14 Table of Contents 5.15 Government Procurement Competition Policy State-Owned Enterprises Intellectual Property Labour Environment Cooperation & Capacity Building Competitiveness & Business Facilitation Development Small and Medium Enterprises Regulatory Coherence Transparency and Anti-corruption Administrative and Institutional Provisions Dispute Settlement Exceptions Final Provisions Side Instruments to CPTPP Measures which the Government could or should adopt to implement the treaty action, including specific reference to implementing legislation Changes Required CPTPP Bill Economic, social, cultural and environmental costs and effects of the treaty action Economic effects Social effects Effects on Māori Cultural effects Environmental effects The costs to New Zealand of compliance with the treaty Tariff revenue Costs to government agencies of implementing and complying with the FTA Costs to businesses of complying with the FTA 227 Page 3

15 Table of Contents 9 Completed or proposed consultation with the community and parties interested in the treaty action Engagement overview Engagement with Māori Public engagement sessions Other stakeholder engagement Previous TPP consultation Summary of issues raised Addressing concerns Inter-departmental consultation Subsequent protocols and/or amendments to the treaty and their likely effects Withdrawal or denunciation provision in the treaty Agency Disclosure Statement 237 Guide to CPTPP Chapters 238 Overview of the suspensions 241 Page 4

16 Frequently Used Acronyms and Terms Frequently Used Acronyms and Terms ANZCERTA AANZFTA ANZTEC ASEAN AVE The Berne Convention The Budapest Treaty CER CGE CPTPP Customs FDI FTA GATS GATT GDP GI GPA HS ICT ILO IP IPONZ ISDS Medsafe The Australia and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement. The ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area. The Economic Cooperation Agreement between New Zealand and the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu on Economic Cooperation. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Ad-valorem equivalent, a method of quantifying a barrier to trade by determining an equivalent barrier expressed in terms of a percentage of price (the ad valorem equivalent). Berne Convention for the Protection of Literary and Artistic Works, as revised at Paris, July 24, Budapest Treaty on the International Recognition of the Deposit of Microorganisms for the Purposes of Patent Procedure (1977), as amended on September 26, New Zealand-Australia Closer Economic Relations, a comprehensive set of trade and economic arrangements including the Australia and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement which entered into force on 1 January Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, used by economists to capture the effects of changing trade barriers on GDP, trade flows, national welfare and other variables. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership The New Zealand Customs Service. Foreign Direct Investment. Free Trade Agreement. Global Agreement on Trade in Services. (The WTO Agreement covering trade in services.) Global Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (The WTO Agreement covering trade in goods.) Gross Domestic Product. Geographical indications, a sign or name used in relation to goods that have a specific geographical origin and qualities essentially attributable to that origin, for example Champagne. WTO Agreement on Government Procurement. The Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (Harmonised System, HS), a near-universal method for classifying international trade. Information and communication technology. International Labour Organization. Intellectual Property. Intellectual Property Office of New Zealand, the government agency responsible for the granting and registration of intellectual property rights. Investor-State dispute settlement. New Zealand Medicines and Medical Devices Safety Authority. Responsible for the regulation of medicines and medical devices in New Zealand, and ensuring that medicines and medical devices are acceptably safe. Page 1

17 Frequently Used Acronyms and Terms MBIE MFAT MPI MFN MNZFTA National Treatment NIA NTM NZTE ODI OECD PHARMAC PVR SDR SMEs SOE SPAM SPS (Agreement) TBT (Agreement) TNF TPP TRIPS UNCTAD UPOV The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The Ministry for Primary Industries. Most-favoured-nation, a requirement that preferential treatment extended to one country (the most favoured ) be extended to others (e.g. to other TPP Parties). Malaysia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement. A requirement that the same level of treatment extended to domestic entities be extended to others (e.g. to other TPP Parties). National Interest Analysis. Non-tariff measure. New Zealand Trade and Enterprise. Outward Foreign Direct Investment Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Pharmaceutical Management Agency. The New Zealand government agency that decides which pharmaceuticals to publicly fund in New Zealand. Plant variety rights, which provide the breeders of new varieties of plants with limited rights to control the commercial exploitation of their new varieties. International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights, a unit of account used by the International Monetary Fund and based on a basket of international currencies. Small and medium-sized enterprises. State-Owned Enterprise. Unsolicited commercial electronic messages. Sanitary and Phytosanitary. (WTO Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.) Technical Barriers to Trade. (WTO Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade.) Trade Negotiations Fund. A New Zealand government inter-agency fund for the negotiation of Free Trade Agreements and to maximize the scope for New Zealand to enter and to gain from these agreements. The Trans-Pacific Partnership. Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The International Convention for the Protection of New Varieties of Plant. WCT WIPO Copyright Treaty, done at Geneva, December 20, WIPO World Intellectual Property Organization. WPPT WIPO Performances and Phonograms Treaty, done at Geneva, December 20, WTO World Trade Organization. Page 2

18 Section 1: Executive summary 1 Executive summary The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a free trade agreement negotiated by 11 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including New Zealand, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, and Viet Nam. It is called comprehensive and progressive because it goes beyond reducing costs for businesses. It includes commitments to safeguard and enforce high labour and environmental standards across the Asia-Pacific region; it preserves New Zealand's right to regulate for legitimate public policy purposes; it upholds the Treaty of Waitangi; it will create new opportunities for international trade and more jobs that help generate a better standard of living for New Zealanders. The CPTPP includes many of the elements that were negotiated as part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but with some significant differences. Following the withdrawal of the United States from the process in January 2017, the remaining participants agreed to establish and negotiate a new agreement that would suspend 22 items from the TPP. This means that a number of TPP-related outcomes that were of concern to New Zealanders in the areas of investment, intellectual property and pharmaceuticals have been suspended. Meanwhile the relative importance of CPTPP has increased in the current global context because of threats to the effective operation of World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, including its dispute resolution mechanism. As a small country reliant upon trade, New Zealand needs the international rules of trade law to assist us in maximising the value of our trade so as to sustain the New Zealand economy, jobs and our standard of living. The CPTPP is a plurilateral agreement that would provide a legal framework for nearly a third of New Zealand s current trade. This National Interest Analysis (NIA) assesses the CPTPP from the perspective of its impact on New Zealand and New Zealanders. It includes economic modelling to quantify the costs and benefits. The NIA does not seek to address the impact of the Agreement on other CPTPP Parties. This NIA assesses the prospect of New Zealand entering into the CPTPP Agreement, and its associated instruments, and concludes that it would be in New Zealand s national interest to do so. Page 3

19 Section 1: Executive summary The economies involved The economies included in the CPTPP account for 13.5 percent of world GDP worth a total of US$10 trillion. The 10 economies: Are the destination for 30 percent of New Zealand s goods exports (NZ$15 billion) and 31 percent of New Zealand s services exports (NZ$6.8 billion) annually. Include four of New Zealand s top 10 trading partners (Australia, Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia). Include four countries with which New Zealand does not have a free trade agreement (Japan, Canada, Mexico and Peru). We currently export over NZ$5.5 billion of goods and services to these four countries (see Table 1.1). Were the source of 64 percent of total foreign direct investment (NZ$66 billion) in New Zealand in Partnering with these countries represents a significant opportunity for New Zealand exporters, opening up markets with a combined population of 480 million people that already consume nearly a third of our overall exports. Gaining preferential access into Japan, the world s third-largest economy, as well as Canada, Mexico and Peru, for the first time will open up new export destinations for our small and larger businesses, create jobs that add to the more than 620,000 New Zealanders whose jobs already depend on exports, and help generate a better standard of living for all New Zealanders. Table 1.1: Exports from New Zealand to new FTA partners CPTPP will serve as a platform to support the integration of New Zealand business into regional supply chains and will provide greater certainty to traders and investors in TPP markets. The agreement also provides a pathway to wider regional economic integration as it will be open to new members to join in future. The reasons for New Zealand entering the Agreement are expanded on in Section 3 of this NIA. Page 4

20 Section 1: Executive summary Estimated economic impact The overall impact of CPTPP on the New Zealand economy will be the result of the complex interaction of the different aspects of the Agreement. Economic modelling undertaken to inform this NIA estimates the overall impact of CPTPP on the New Zealand economy once fully implemented to be a rise in real GDP of at least 0.3 percent or NZ$1.2 billion, and up to 1.0 percent or NZ$4.0 billion. If CPTPP goes ahead without New Zealand, the modelling estimates a NZ$183 million decline in our GDP as New Zealand s place in regional supply chains would be eroded, exports from competitors would be favoured and comparably cheaper than New Zealand s, and investment would likely be diverted away from New Zealand to other CPTPP countries. Estimates from this modelling are broadly similar to the 0.4 percent increase in GDP estimated by Ciuriak et al 1 and the 1.1 percent estimated by Petri et al, 2 but are more conservative than the 4.3 percent estimated by Kawasaki. 3 Estimates vary with different assumptions on how, among other things, tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) are addressed. But with the exception of Capaldo et al 4 (Tufts University) quantification of the original TPP Agreement which is the only one to assume that the structure of CPTPP economies do not adjust to changing demand in prices the modelling of CPTPP and TPP generally predicts positive GDP growth for participating economies, including New Zealand. Table 1.2: Estimated impact of CPTPP Area Annual increase in NZ GDP when fully in effect (NZ$) 5 Notes Reductions in tariffs and quota barriers on goods trade. Reductions in non-tariff measures (NTMs) on goods trade. Improved trade facilitation measures. Reductions in barriers on services trade. $760 million Around half of the tariff elimination for New Zealand exports is from entry into force. From $363 million to $1.2 billion From $0 to $360 million From $47 million to $1.6 billion 1 Ciuriak D, J Xiao and A Dadkhah 2017 Quantifying the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in the East Asian Economic Review vol 21, no. 4 December. 2 Petri P, M G Plummer, S Urata and Fan Zhai 2017 Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States 3 Kawasaki K GRIPS discussion paper Emergent Uncertainty in Regional Integration Economic impacts of alternative RTA scenarios. 4 Capaldo J, A Izuriete and J K Sundaram 2016 Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. 5 Annual increase relative to baseline GDP estimates. Page 5

21 Section 1: Executive summary Impact on New Zealand Employment Net positive No industry is expected to experience significant declines in average wages or job numbers. Social regulation No negative impact expected Does not inhibit the right to regulate for legitimate public policy purposes. Health No negative impact expected Does not inhibit the right to regulate for legitimate public health purposes. PHARMAC model preserved with no additional costs. Immigration No negative impact expected Commitments do not apply to categories of visitors related to immigration. Human rights No negative impact expected May help improve labour standards across CPTPP region. Treaty of Waitangi No negative impact expected Nothing in the CPTPP prevents the Crown from meeting its obligations to Māori. The importance of traditional knowledge and indigenous plant varieties is acknowledged. Culture, including digital economy Environment No negative impact expected No impact on New Zealand, but may help improve environmental standards across CPTPP region, including disciplines on fishing subsidies and transhipment of engendered species. Government retains ability to support New Zealand creative content. Does not inhibit the right to regulate for legitimate public policy purposes, including environmental protection. The economic, Treaty, social, cultural, environmental and fiscal impacts of the CPTPP are discussed in Sections 7 and 8 of the NIA. Page 6

22 Section 1: Executive summary Benefits for goods exporters The CPTPP would provide significant benefits for New Zealand goods exporters across a range of sectors. Tariffs would be eliminated on all New Zealand s exports to CPTPP economies within 16 years, with the exception of beef into Japan where the duty would be cut significantly; and a number of dairy products into Japan, Canada, and Mexico, where access would still be improved through partial tariff reductions and duty-free quotas. The CPTPP has the potential to deliver an estimated NZ$222.4 million of tariff savings annually once fully implemented, with NZ$95.1 million of those savings starting as soon as the CPTPP enters into force. By way of comparison, the annual tariff savings from New Zealand s free trade agreement with China were estimated to be at NZ$115 million, although since then trade growth has seen New Zealand s annual exports to China quadruple, with consequent significant tariff savings accrual. Crucially, it would mean our exporters are not disadvantaged in important markets like Japan compared with competitors such as Australia, Chile, and soon with the 28 members of the EU, which have secured free trade agreements with Japan. Key outcomes for New Zealand goods exporters throughout the CPTPP region include: All tariffs for kiwifruit would be eliminated at entry into force and existing duty free access will be locked in. This includes duty free access to Japan New Zealand s largest kiwifruit market representing tariff-related savings of more than NZ$26 million. All tariffs on wine would be eliminated, including immediate duty-free access to Canada (New Zealand s 4th-largest wine market). Nearly all tariffs on sheepmeat would be eliminated upon entry into force, including locking in preferential rates to Canada (New Zealand s 7th-largest sheepmeat market). All tariffs on forestry and forestry products would be eliminated as part of CPTPP, including in Japan (New Zealand s 4th-largest export market) and Viet Nam (New Zealand s 9th-largest market). All tariffs on apples would be eliminated within 11 years. This would level the playing field with Australian apple exporters, who already enjoy preferential access into Japan. Tariffs on beef exports to Japan would reduce from 38.5 percent to 9 percent over 16 years. This would immediately remove Australian beef exporters current tariff advantage over New Zealand in that market, through the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement. CPTPP includes useful improvements for our dairy exporters. They would benefit from an estimated NZ$88.5 million in overall tariff savings as a result of preferential access to new quotas into Japan, Canada and Mexico, in addition to tariff elimination on a number of products. All of New Zealand s fish and fish products imported into Japan currently face tariffs. Ninetynine percent of these tariffs would be eliminated within 11 years, and the remainder within 16 years. Page 7

23 Section 1: Executive summary Page 8

24 Section 1: Executive summary In addition to tariff liberalisation, the CPTPP would also help address non-tariff barriers to trade in goods by reducing the time exporters spend waiting for goods to clear customs, lowering compliance costs, and increasing predictability around other countries processes. This is significant at a time when the number of non-tariff measures (NTMs) affecting global trade has been rapidly expanding. In 1995 there were about 200 sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures notified to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). In 2010 there were well over 1,000. NTMs are common across CPTPP countries. According to the WTO, Japan has over 1,500 NTMs in 2017 and Canada has nearly 2,000. About half of the NTMs applied by CPTPP countries are sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures - particularly relevant for a country such as New Zealand with a large share of exports made up of agriculture products, foods and beverages. Technical barriers to trade (TBTs) are the second-most reported NTMs to the WTO. The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research estimated the cost of NTMs in the Asia Pacific region to be US$790 billion per year. The New Zealand exporter cost was estimated at US$5.9 billion. These represent a significant brake on our exporters competitiveness. 6 Benefits for services exporters and SMEs The CPTPP would support the growing services and digital sectors, assist businesses of all sizes to expand trade flows, and provide greater opportunities to bid for government contracts. CPTPP market access commitments in services sectors would provide greater openness and certainty over the conditions under which New Zealand businesses can provide services to overseas clients. Access to CPTPP markets has been locked in for New Zealand service providers across a range of sectors, including providers of professional, business, private education, environmental, transportation and distribution services. The improved services commitments would also support many of New Zealand s goods exporters, which increasingly look to undertake services-related activities to support their international business. The CPTPP would provide greater opportunities for New Zealand businesses to bid for government contracts in CPTPP markets particularly in Malaysia, Mexico, Peru and Viet Nam. The CPTPP also provides New Zealand with better access to government contracts in Canada, Japan, and Singapore over and above the access we have already secured to those markets through the World Trade Organisation Agreement on Government Procurement. New Zealand businesses will be able to compete for government procurement contracts in CPTPP countries on an equal footing with domestic suppliers. The CPTPP includes commitments to ensure that economies at all levels of development, and businesses of all sizes, can benefit from enhanced trade. It is New Zealand s first free trade agreement to include a dedicated Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises chapter. This chapter 6 Ballingall J and Pambudi D 2016, Quantifying the costs of non-tariff measures in the Asia-Pacific region: Initial estimates, NZIER public discussion paper 2016/4. Page 9

25 Section 1: Executive summary provides for cooperation between the Parties to help small and medium businesses to understand what has been agreed, take advantage of its opportunities, and bring their unique challenges to the attention of the CPTPP governments. Raising standards Promoting sustainable economic development is also a prominent feature of what has been negotiated. The CPTPP would help to raise labour and environmental standards in the CPTPP region, reduce the impact of unfair practices, and promote sustainable development. The labour and environment outcomes in the CPTPP are the most comprehensive New Zealand will have achieved in a free trade agreement, with labour and environment standards made legally enforceable for the first time. For example, the CPTPP will be a world-first for including a prohibition on granting or maintaining subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported or unregulated (IUU) fishing or that negatively affect over-fished stocks. This is a meaningful contribution to achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 (on fish subsidies and addressing collapsing fishing stocks before 2020). CPTPP also ensures Parties have in place laws and practices governing minimum wages, hours of work, and occupational safety and health. Rights are protected At the same time as supporting New Zealand s trade ambitions, the CPTPP protects the unique status of the Treaty of Waitangi and preserves the Government s right to regulate for legitimate public policy purposes, in areas including public health, public education, social welfare, the environment, and taxation policy. The CPTPP reaffirms the participating countries commitment not to deliberately misuse regulations that are not for legitimate public purposes but are unjustified, disguised or discriminatory barriers to trade. As with all of New Zealand s contemporary trade agreements, the CPTPP includes a specific provision preserving the pre-eminence of the Treaty of Waitangi in New Zealand. Nothing in the CPTPP would prevent the Crown from meeting its obligations to Māori and New Zealand s interpretation of the Treaty of Waitangi will not be subject to dispute settlement. While investor state dispute settlement (ISDS) is part of the CPTPP, a reciprocal treaty-status 'side' agreement with Australia means that ISDS would not apply between our countries. This covers 80 percent of our overseas investment from CPTPP countries as a whole. We have the same agreement with Peru. Further side agreements with Brunei, Malaysia and Viet Nam also prevent an ISDS claim Page 10

26 Section 1: Executive summary from an investor from those countries from proceeding to arbitration without New Zealand's consent (and vice versa). This helps further mitigate the risk of a successful case taken by a foreign investor against the New Zealand government. Where ISDS does apply, the scope has been narrowed in CPTPP compared with TPP. This is achieved by excluding investment contracts and approvals from its scope. This means that private companies who enter into an investment contract with the Government will not be able to use ISDS clauses under CPTPP if there is a dispute about that contract. In addition, a number of strong safeguards from TPP have been retained in CPTPP. These mean the New Zealand Government cannot be successfully sued by investors for legitimate measures related to public education, health and other social services. The Government can also rule out cases relating to tobacco control measures. Decisions made under the Overseas Investment Act are not subject to ISDS. The impacts of the CPTPP provisions and their advantages and disadvantages are outlined in more detail in Sections 4 and 5 of this NIA. Legislative amendments Most of the obligations in CPTPP are already met by New Zealand s existing domestic legal and policy regime. That said, a number of legislative and regulatory amendments are required to align New Zealand s domestic legal regime with some of the rights and obligations created under CPTPP and thereby enable New Zealand to ratify CPTPP. These are described in more detail in Section 6 of the NIA and include: Changes to the Tariff Act 1988 to implement CPTPP s preferential tariff rates and transitional safeguard mechanisms (and may include emergency action measures for textiles and apparel), and to the Customs and Excise Regulations 1996 to implement rules of origin. Amendments to the Overseas Investment Act to increase the screening threshold for nongovernment investments in significant business assets from CPTPP Parties to NZ$200 million. Amendments to the Copyright Act 1994 to give new exclusive rights to performers and provide Customs with ex officio powers to temporarily detain suspected pirated copyright works. Amendments to the Patents Act 2013 to provide a grace period for public disclosures of an invention before a patent application has been filed. Amendments to the Trade Marks Act 2002 to provide authority to the High Court to award additional damages for trade mark infringement, introduce measures to prevent the export of infringing trade mark goods, introduce measures to provide Customs ex officio powers to temporarily detain suspected trade mark infringing goods, and require the Courts to order the destruction of counterfeit goods in infringement proceedings except in exceptional cases. Page 11

27 Section 1: Executive summary Within three years of CPTPP entering into force, amendments to the Plant Variety Rights Act 1987 to give effect to the International Convention for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants (UPOV 91), while adopting any measure necessary to protect indigenous plants in fulfilment of any related obligations under the Treaty of Waitangi. Within three years of CPTPP entering into force, a change to the Wine Act 2003, or regulations under the Act, defining the type of wine permitted to be exported as ice wine. A number of intellectual property provisions have been suspended from CPTPP, saving the Government from having to make changes likely to result in costs to New Zealand. For example, there is no longer a need to extend New Zealand s copyright term to 70 years, removing one of the most significant quantified costs of the TPP for New Zealand. The CPTPP would also not change the PHARMAC model or its ability to negotiate the best price for medicines for New Zealanders. Nor would PHARMAC be required to make administrative changes that were prescribed in the TPP text primarily of benefit to the pharmaceutical industry. While CPTPP recognises each Party s right to establish and maintain SOEs while aiming to establish a level playing field between state-owned or controlled companies and their competitors, these provisions do not apply to SOEs which operate principally on a not-for-profit or cost-recovery basis, and include an exception for SOEs with annual revenue below around NZ$400 million thus excluding the majority of New Zealand entities from TPP s commitments. Consultation Reflecting public concerns about TPP, CPTPP has sought to address these in the negotiation of the suspension of some of the more controversial TPP provisions. Consultation with Māori and the public on CPTPP is ongoing. As highlighted in Section 9 of this NIA, throughout the TPP negotiation process and after its conclusion the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT), together with other government agencies, has been active in engaging with a wide spectrum of stakeholders. These views were taken into account when considering suspensions under the CPTPP. Consultations has been undertaken are continuing on CPTPP in order to provide the opportunity for New Zealanders to seek more information about the Agreement and to offer their views so that these can be taken into account during the ratification process. Like all free trade agreements, the CPTPP will be scrutinised by a parliamentary Select Committee and Parliament will consider the necessary legislative changes needed to give effect to the agreement. Page 12

28 Section 2: Nature and timing of proposed treaty action 2 Nature and timing of proposed treaty action The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a plurilateral treaty-level agreement negotiated between: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Viet Nam. It was signed by Trade Ministers from the eleven countries on 8 March 2018 in Santiago, Chile. The Agreement incorporates by reference much of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that was negotiated from March 2010 until October 2015 between these eleven countries and the United States, before the US stated its intention not to become a Party to TPP on 23 January This includes all of the tariff reductions and goods market access outcomes originally offered by this group. There are, however, some significant differences to aspects of the agreement that were of concern to New Zealanders the first time around. These relate to, inter alia, aspects of the investment, intellectual property and pharmaceutical-related outcomes. These aspects have been suspended. The agreement of all CPTPP members would be needed for these provisions to apply in the future as part of CPTPP. The text of the Agreement and list of 22 suspensions (reproduced at the back of this NIA) are available on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade website: Entry-into-force of CPTPP is subject to the completion of the necessary domestic procedures of the Parties. The CPTPP will enter into force 60 days after the date on which at least six signatories have notified the Depositary (New Zealand) that they have completed their applicable legal procedures. Entry into force may be possible before the end of Signatories who are unable to notify their readiness by the time of entry into force of the Agreement may become a Party to CPTPP when they are ready to do so. New Zealand has also concluded a number of separate 'side letters' with other Parties, alongside CPTPP. Some of these letters are legally binding agreements. The CPTPP Intellectual Property chapter would require New Zealand to accede to the International Convention for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants, as revised at Geneva, March 19, 1991 (UPOV 91), or alternatively to give effect to UPOV 91. New Zealand would also be required to remove its reservation to Articles 1-12 of the Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Property, as revised at Stockholm, July 14, 1967 (the Paris Convention). Page 13