2016 Second Home Hotspots

Transcription

1 2016 Second Home Hotspots A look at the most popular areas in England and Wales to buy a second home and predictions on how these areas might change post-april 2016 Spring 2016

2 2016 Second Home Hotspots Second homes provide the gateway to enjoying the benefits of city and country living and help owners to strike the ultimate work-life balance. The market for second homes is underpinned by a unique conflict in modern British living - the necessity of the big city and the inexorable draw of the countryside. From April 2016, people looking to buy a second home will be hit by an extra 3% in Stamp Duty, a policy which is principally aimed at reducing the flow of private housing stock into the private rented sector by buy-to-let landlords. Second home buyers will also be affected. In this report, we explore what drives the market, we look at where are the current core markets for second homes and finally we look at the areas likely to grow in popularity after the tax changes are implemented. A property within reasonable proximity of their main home and one which offers peace and quietude often in a village location are by far the most important criteria for the majority of the second home buyers on our books right now. Ian Westerling Managing Director What drives the market for second homes? One of the most important drivers of the second homes market is the need for space. Many second home owners have their principal home in London and as such, often crave more square footage - indoor and outdoor. They are also drawn to the feeling of space around them that countryside living offers which in turn with it brings more privacy than they are accustomed to in the Capital. When it comes to price, second home buyers are like many other buyers in the market at the moment and are price sensitive. They may well have benefitted from rising house prices in the South East but that does not mean they will pay over the odds for their second home. Weekday Priorities Space Weekend Priorities Space The majority of buyers are also looking for something within reasonable commuting distance of London. They usually won t want to travel more than a couple of hours to access their second home; transport links to and from their principal home must be good. Travel to work House price Travel to work House price

3 Spring 2016 Using data from the 2011 census, we looked at the location of people who currently own a second home. All but two of the top 10 areas were in central and south west London. The top district was the City of London followed by Kensington and Chelsea. The eight London areas in the list have a lot in common. They are all amongst the most expensive areas in terms of property values, rents and price per square foot. Unsurprisingly, salaries are also high at 42% above than the national average. Residents are also the hardest workers in the country. In fact, if we rank every district in the country by the proportion of residents who work over 49 hours per week, our eight London areas score highest. So all the evidence points to busy families who are cash rich but time poor who are likely to feel the pressures of urban living more than most. Crucially, however, they have resources to buy a second home and escape the city. Top 10 home districts for owners of second homes elsewhere * Rank Area name Second homes /1000 residents 1 The City of London Kensington & Chelsea Isles of Scilly Westminster Hammersmith & Fulham Richmond-Upon-Thames Camden Wandsworth Islington Mole Valley 7.3 * The definition of second homes in this table refers only to holiday homes Where are the second home hotspots? In order to map the top 40 areas for second homes across England and Wales, we have used data from the 2011 census on second addresses. These addresses were used for 30 days or more per year by the individual, so buy-to-let properties were largely excluded. The second addresses were split into three usage categories Holiday, Work and Other. We filtered out those in the Work category in order to focus on those whose second address was away from work rather than close to it. We then calculated the number of people with a second home in each area expressed as per 1,000 residents to ensure the map wasn t skewed towards areas with large populations. Of the top 40, there is a clear concentration of districts in areas of outstanding natural beauty. Indeed, 23 areas are by the coast with the remainder based around the Peak District, Pennines, Yorkshire Dales, Cotswolds, North York Moors, Chilterns or South Downs. The only significant outlier in the sample is Kensington & Chelsea, which has 7,120 second addresses (or 45 per thousand residents).

4 2016 Second Home Hotspots Post April 2016 Hotspots Having mapped the top 40 areas for second homes across England and Wales, we now look at which will fare best after the extra 3% stamp duty becomes payable after April To do this we looked at which second home areas were in the most robust housing markets which would also feel the tax hike least in percentage terms. We were interested to understand how second home hotspots might change after the stamp duty hike in April To do this we looked at which second home areas were in the most robust housing markets, which would also feel the tax hike least in percentage terms. Firstly, stamp duty. We established earlier in the report that the purchase tax payable on second homes is going to increase many times over after April However, if we calculate the tax payable on the average house in each area, we can see that some areas will be affected less than others. For example, in the Cotswolds the average price of a house in 2015 was 412,802. Before April 2016, the stamp duty payable was 10,640 but afterwards rose to 23,024, a rise of 116%. However, viewed in the context of the average rise of 270% for all our 40 second homes areas, the Cotswolds has fared relatively well. Next, we looked at house price growth. Since the credit crunch, annual house price growth in the Cotswolds has been a healthy 4.3%. Compared with an average of 3% for all our 40 second home areas, you can again see the Cotswolds has done well. By scoring each of our 40 areas on this basis, we have arrived at our top 20 hotspots for the second homes market post April The geographical spread of the top scoring areas bears quite a striking pattern. They are all in the southern half of England, with North Norfolk being the most northerly and the top ten closest second homes areas to London are all post-april hotspots. The difference in average prices in and out of the post-april hotspots is significant. In fact, the price of properties in the post-april 2016 hotspots is almost double that of the top 40 second home destinations: 400,000 (excluding Kensington & Chelsea) compared with 211,000. What is happening to stamp duty? In December 2014, stamp duty bands changed from a slab basis where a single rate of tax applied to the whole property value to a sliding scale model similar to income tax where a different rate of tax is payable depending on how much of the property s value sits within each bracket. For now, nothing is changing to these rates on principal homes but an additional 3% will be payable on any other homes including second homes and buy-to-let properties. If you bought a second home after April for 400,000 you would pay 3% stamp duty on the first 125,000, then 5% on 125,000 to 250,000 and 8% above 250,000. (eg: 400, ,000 = 150,000 x 0.08 = 12, , ,750 = 22,000). Price band of second home 0 to 125, ,001 to 250, ,001 to 925, ,001 to 1.5m 1.5m + Stamp Duty Rate Before After 0% 3% 2% 5% 5% 8% 10% 13% 12% 15%

5 Spring 2016 Key Top 40 areas by second homes per 1000 population * Top 20 hotspots after April 2016 Stamp Duty changes Second Home Hotspots The top 20 hotspots marked in the hatched areas are the areas least likely to be affected by the changes to stamp duty in percentage terms, and are areas that have also seen the highest rates of price growth since the credit crunch. Eden 214,000 Richmondshire 221,000 Scarborough 175,000 South Lakeland 255,000 Ryedale 232,000 Craven 224,000 Conwy 171,000 Anglesey 179,000 Gwynedd 167,000 Derbyshire Dales 270,000 East Lindsey 167,000 North Norfolk 252,000 Powys 187,000 Rutland 293,000 Ceredigion 186,000 King s Lynn 290,000 Pembrokeshire 178,000 Suffolk Coastal 294,000 Cotswold 413,000 West Oxfordshire 372,000 Chiltern 633,000 South Bucks 761,000 Kensington & Chelsea 4.4m North Devon 255,000 Torridge 227,000 West Somerset 241,000 West Dorset 311,000 North Dorset 271,000 Waverley 554,000 Mole Valley 593,000 West Devon 260,000 Chichester 446,000 Rother 334,000 Cornwall 247,000 East Devon 295,000 Purbeck 341,000 Winchester 474,000 Isle of Wight 229,000 South Hams 339,000 Christchurch 368,000

6 2016 Second Home Hotspots The stamp duty hike on second homes is not welcome and will dent the confidence of second home buyers but only in the short-term. Buying a second home is a lifestyle decision that many will not be prepared to sacrifice. We expect buyers to recalibrate and return to the market with adjusted expectations perhaps widening their search and considering new areas or look at a cheaper property where value can be added. Ian Westerling, Managing Director The areas least affected by the stamp duty change are those with the most robust housing markets. High average prices and strong growth tend to go hand-in-hand in the UK residential property market, so it is inevitable that the areas in our top 20 post-april hotspots are the prime markets. Yet prices and price growth are only a part of the story. Sales rates in the post-april hotspots are much higher than in the other second homes areas. While Land Registry data for 2015 is not yet complete, the data we can see shows that 5.1% of properties in the private sector sold in This compares with 4.3% for the other second homes areas. Across all of England & Wales, in the market as a whole, 4.6% of properties sold, so in this context the second homes market is split in two, with the hotspots being more active than average and the rest seeing below average sales rates. So in summary, the distribution of the hotspots across the country reflects the wider markets in which they sit. Drivers like accessibility to London, the quality of the housing stock, and natural beauty contribute to a strong property market in general and make the second homes market within them better able to resist the impact of the changes to stamp duty. Hotspots ranked using a combined score of high price change and low tax increase Rank Area name Avg price change p/a since 2009 * Avg tax payable on second home before April 2016 Avg tax payable on second home after April Kensington & Chelsea 12.6% 437, , South Bucks 5.9% 28,030 50, Mole Valley 6.8% 19,630 37, Chiltern 5.8% 21,670 40, Winchester 5.5% 13,690 27, Waverley 5.3% 17,690 34, Chichester 5.2% 12,280 25, West Oxfordshire 5.3% 8,600 19, Christchurch 4.7% 8,390 19, Cotswold 4.3% 10,640 23, Purbeck 4.7% 7,060 17, Rother 3.9% 6,730 16, Suffolk Coastal 4.1% 4,690 13, West Dorset 3.1% 5,550 14, South Hams 2.8% 6,960 17, Rutland 3.3% 4,670 13, North Norfolk 3.6% 2,590 10, North Dorset 2.5% 3,530 11, East Devon 2.2% 4,730 13, North Devon 2.8% 2,770 10, Average in Top 40 second home areas 3% Average in Top 40 second home areas * Rank based on a combined score using these two columns where high price growth and low tax rise multiples score best. Increase in stamp duty as a multiple * 3.7

7 Spring 2016 Time needed for house price inflation to pay off the increase in tax With the fundamental drivers of the market unaffected, we expect the longer-term market for second homes to remain healthy Ian Westerling, Managing Director It s worth putting the stamp duty rise in the context of a long-term property investment, as most second homes fit this bill. Since the credit crunch, properties in our top 20 list of second homes hotspots have increased by 18,000 in value each year (excluding Kensington & Chelsea). The extra tax payable in these areas on average is 11,800. This means the extra tax would only take about eight months to pay off if historical growth rate continue. Even if the rate of growth halved due to unforeseen economic turmoil, it would still only take just over a year to recoup the money through house price inflation. By contrast, it is the buy to let market that will feel the biggest impact of the stamp duty changes: 80% of landlords only own one or two properties and they are often operating at very tight margins. Consequently they are very sensitive to five-figure tax hikes. Since 2002, people in full time jobs living in the top 10 home districts for people with second homes have seen their gross earnings rise by 30% and house values rise by a whopping 250%. This has meant they can afford to buy a home in the countryside, where house prices are on average three-times lower, either through downsizing their main property, remortgaging or even buying in cash using bonus payments.

8 About Humberts Founded in 1842, Humberts has been providing trusted residential, rural and commercial property services to our loyal clients for more than 170 years. Whether it s a quirky twobedroom town house, a holiday complex by the coast or a 2000-acre rural estate, our expert property teams can help you with selling or managing your property. As part of the Chestertons Group, we have access to 34 London and 34 international offices and have the opportunity to generate interest for your property from buyers and investors from all over the world. Across the Humberts office network, we employ some of the most experienced and well-qualified professionals in the industry. Our business is based on the traditional values of building relationships and giving brilliant service. But there is nothing old-fashioned about us. Our people are thought leaders and innovators, constantly listening to our clients and looking at new ways to enhance our service. In fact, we lead the industry in using the latest digital marketing techniques, including social media and e-marketing, to sell your property. So, if you re looking for property experts who combine in-depth national and local knowledge with international contacts and brilliant service, Humberts is the perfect choice. Our branches Blandford 1 Market Place, Blandford Forum, Dorset, DT11 7AH Bridport 32 South Street, Bridport, Dorset, DT6 3NQ Canterbury 71 Castle Street, Canterbury, Kent, CT1 2QD Chichester 2 Magnus Court, St. Martin s Street, Chichester, PO19 1AF Chippenham Kings Head House, 35 Market Place, Chippenham, Wiltshire, SN15 3HT Cirencester 40 Castle Street, Cirencester, Gloucestershire, GL7 1QH London Country House Connaught House, 1-3 Mount Street, London, W1K 3NB East Grinstead 59 High Street, East Grinstead, West Sussex, RH19 3DD Honiton105 High Street, Honiton, Devon, EX14 1PE Lincoln 4 Eastgate, Lincoln, Lincolnshire, LN2 1QA Marlborough 106 High Street, Marlborough, Wiltshire, SN8 1LT Norwich 13 Upper King Street, Norwich, Norfolk, NR3 1RB Nottingham Oxford House, 8a Oxford Street, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, NG1 5BN Salisbury 37 Castle Street, Salisbury, Wiltshire, SP1 1TT Sevenoaks High Street, Sevenoaks, Kent, TN13 1LH Sherborne 18 Cheap Street, Sherborne, Dorset, DT9 3PX Stamford 5, Ironmonger Street, Stamford, Lincolnshire, PE9 1PL Taunton 17 Hammet Street, Taunton, Somerset, TA1 1RZ. Taunton Mansfield House, Silver Street, Taunton, TA1 3DN Truro 40 Lemon Street, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 2NS Yeovil 16b Hendford, Yeovil, Somerset, BA20 1TE York 11, Micklegate, York, North Yorkshire, YO1 6JH