Egypt s balancing act

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Erika Hodges
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1 15-17 September 2018 NEW CAIRO EXHIBITION CENTRE Egypt s balancing act Organised by:

greatest shortcuts and facilitating the flow of billions in global trade.

2 Overview Egypt is home to one of the world s most important pieces of internationally significant infrastructure. At an enlarged 193km, a figure it hit after $8bn worth of extension works were completed in 2015, the Suez Canal connects the Mediterranean with the Red Sea, providing shipping with one of its greatest shortcuts and facilitating the flow of billions in global trade. The benefits for Egypt can be measured in two simple ways: there is the revenue, which was a nudge over $5bn in , and there is also opportunity. Ultimately Egypt is hoping to see its income from the project rise to more than $13bn by , thanks to a plan that will see the expanded capacity used as a catalyst for the long term development of the Suez Canal Economic Zone. This takes the free zone model that has seen significant success in Gulf countries and super sizes it to match the scale of the Egypt s potential. Spanning 461km 2, almost two-thirds the size of Singapore, the zone consists of two areas integrating existing infrastructure around East Port Said and Ain Sokhna Port, two development areas in Qantara West and East Ismailia, plus four more ports. Investors in both the zone and the country s wider construction sector will take heart from Egypt s underlying numbers, as well as the direction in which they are heading. Egypt s gross domestic product (GDP) sat at $332.3 billion 3 in 2016 having risen steadily every year since 2004, ignoring the global financial crisis. GDP is forecast to grow at 3.5% in 2017, increasing to 5.4% growth by The construction sector s fortunes are naturally linked to those of the wider economy, but some of the core needs within the market - industrial and infrastructure development, such as the canal zone, plus an expanding need for housing - have helped the sector s growth stay ahead of the mark set by Egypt s GDP. Construction enjoyed a steady rate of growth at 11.2% in 2016, up a few points from 9.7% in Looking ahead, growth of 6.2% is forecast for 2018, rising gradually thereafter to a peak of just over 10% by The construction sector s contribution to Egypt s overall GDP stood at 5.4% in the 2016 financial year 6, - up from 4.8% in By 2025 this contribution to GDP is forecast to rise to 5.8%, with its value up from an estimated $9bn in 2016 to a forecast $32bn 7, demonstrating that construction will remain an important mainstay of the country s economic performance ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=469&s=ngdpd&grp=0&a BMI Research, Egypt Infrastructure Report, January 2017, based on exchange rate on 24/4/17

Egypt has put pen to paper on 20 economic agreements worth some $15bn Encouragingly there was a sharp rise in the value of investments made into Egypt s construction sector in 2016, which rose 198.

3 Egypt has put pen to paper on 20 economic agreements worth some $15bn Encouragingly there was a sharp rise in the value of investments made into Egypt s construction sector in 2016, which rose 198.6%, following a rise of 43.2% in the previous year. Such funds are crucial to the sector s ongoing health and its ability to attract both local and international investment make it a central component in an economy keen to see new money enter circulation. In real terms construction attracted a relatively modest $506.2 million in 2015, followed by a more robust $1.4 billion in The lion s share of this funding was sourced from the private sector - some 60% - but this came after public sector investment climbed from just over 28% in 2015 to 40% in Egypt s construction industry will no doubt be keen to see more deals like that signed in July last year, when the country put pen to paper on 20 economic agreements worth some $15bn with the Chinese government. The deal is set to include extensive investments in the country s housing, transport and energy sectors 10 and will likely see Chinese firms bidding for work they will execute with local resources. Deals like the one done with China speak to the two important but indirect ways construction makes a contribution to Egypt s development. First it helps to provide jobs to the 91.5 million people who live with double digit unemployment figures: unemployment sat around the 12.5% mark in mid They also bring in vital foreign direct investment, which stood at $12.7bn in More than $2bn of that came from the UAE and Saudi Arabia alone. In the last six months Egypt has made bold moves to help attract more such investment, agreeing a $12bn deal with the IMF 13 just days after it floated its currency and saw a subsequent devaluation of around 48% 14. Dividends from the moves have started to emerge, and the currency has clawed back some of its initial losses. It is hoped these renewed economic conditions will boost overseas interest, with the World Bank suggesting private investment is expected to pick up in the second half of the 2017 financial year, supported by what it characterised as enhanced competitiveness following the devaluation and other positive changes in the business climate 15. These changes have already had a direct impact on the construction sector, keeping big ticket infrastructure projects going and seeing new funds attracted to the market as the Egyptian Pound became cheaper. The down side may be felt as a temporary increase in material costs, which could see construction s growth decelerate throughout 2017 to a forecast 6.1 % 16. Observers believe that the construction sector has the fundamentals in place to deliver steady returns. If the financial changes Egypt has seen over the last year deliver the predicted results and the country can balance the market s needs with its own fiscal requirements, investors could respond positively to well-priced opportunities to participate in development. If so, growth in the construction sector should continue to march ahead of the wider economy and fuel continued opportunities for regional contractors and suppliers alike html BMI Research, Egypt Infrastructure Report, January 2017

4 spotlight Housing Egypt s demand for housing is prolific. Thanks to a population that has grown by more than 23 million since and a steady stream of 800,000 marriages a year 18 putting young couples in the housing market, developers with the right mix of properties have a ready and willing audience of buyers. Across the country some estimates put the housing demand at 500,000 units each year, for the five years from 2016, just to keep pace with population growth 19. It will take a coordinated effort and considerable investment to make those numbers a reality. In 2016 the Egyptian Ministry of Housing signed four publicprivate partnership contracts with major real estate developers in worth $26.8bn to make a dent in the much needed housing stock deficit 20, but some of the largest deals have been hit by delays and may take longer than projected to come to fruition. Egypts population has grown by more than 23 million since 2000 A total of 13,000 new residential units were completed in Cairo last year and forecasts anticipate somewhere between 10-11,000 being added in 2017 and The current flotation bought the prices of these units down in US dollar terms, which forced price increases in Egyptian Pounds upwards of 30% for the year. More price hikes could lie ahead until the building materials market levels out against currency fluctuations. JLL notes that the ability for developers to pass these price increases on may be limited, resulting in tighter development margins. However the first quarter of 2017 saw strong interest from companies in tenders issued for Cairo New Capital City, which reflects the strong demand to acquire land for new residential projects JLL,JLL Real Estate Market Overview - Cairo Year In Review 22

5 spotlight Retail The retail development has seen one of the biggest changes in the market that will come this year. In late March Dubai-headquartered developer Majid Al Futaim opened the doors on the Mall of Egypt, a new $700 million retail experience, complete with its own indoor ski slope 23. The Mall of Egypt is a new $700 million retail experience, complete with its own indoor ski slope. Despite Egyptians spending power being curbed by last year s currency float the developer remains bullish, telling Bloomberg it will be investing a further $600 million in another Cairo mall, as well as making massive additions to an existing property. The impact on the employment market has been felt too, with estimates suggesting the mall opening has created 41,000 direct and indirect jobs 24. Meanwhile Amer Group s Porto New Cairo which is set for delivery later this year, while Almaza City Center, a 103,000m 2 regional mall located in Heliopolis is expected to be opened in the first quarter of

spotlight Commercial The commercial property scene in Egypt is one offering opportunity, particularly in Cairo, as demand for high-quality product outpaces supply, which is limited by the

6 spotlight Commercial The commercial property scene in Egypt is one offering opportunity, particularly in Cairo, as demand for high-quality product outpaces supply, which is limited by the availability of land. Five new office buildings are expected to be completed within Cairo Festival City in the third quarter of 2017, bringing with them 60,000m 2 of grade A office space to New Cairo 26. This will make up the bulk of a total 70,000m 2 expected to become available during the year. Looking ahead a recently announced project, Smart Village East at Al Bourouj is being produced by a public private partnership including Capital Group Properties, creating a mixed-use development due for completion in Plans include the construction of 1.4 million new hotel rooms As part of a strategy to generate $26.0bn in income from the tourism industry by 2020, Egypt s government is looking at the construction of new tourist destinations in Ras Sedr, Ain Sokhna, the Gulf of Aqaba, the North Coast and the Red Sea. Plans include the construction of 1.4m new hotel rooms 27. there is also a government-backed plan to help the owners of dilapidated hotel properties renovate by funding some refurbishment costs 28. The Egyptian government has also signed deals with international developers prepared to fund major developments to improve industrial and administrative areas. At the end of 2016 it gave 80 hectares of land to a Russian consortium to build an $4.6bn industrial port facility in Port Said and also concluded a $20bn deal signed with China Fortune Land Development to develop and manage a 57km 2 portion of its new administrative capital development BMI Research, Egypt Infrastructure Report, January 2017

spotlight Social Infrastructure Egypt s network of healthcare and education facilities is in much need of investment to bolster their ability to deliver services to the communities they serve.

7 spotlight Social Infrastructure Egypt s network of healthcare and education facilities is in much need of investment to bolster their ability to deliver services to the communities they serve. While there are signs that funding may start to flow if the private sector can find suitable opportunities, there is still much work to do. The government has moved some of the way on healthcare, approving a draft national health insurance law, which would enable more people to pay for the healthcare they need, and allocating $2.94bn in the 2016/2017 budget to healthcare spending 30, although this amount is below the world average as a percentage of GDP. In 2016 Egypt s Ministry of Health kicked-off a healthcare improvement project, earmarking approximately $380m to construct or renovate a total of 135 hospitals around the nation by The government has allocated $2.94bn in the 2016/2017 budget to healthcare spending In newly developing areas, where investment is going into new communities being built from the ground up there are extensive plans for improved healthcare and education facilities. For instance 663 healthcare facilities are included in plans for a new capital east of Cairo, where some 700 kindergartens are also scheduled to be built, to cater for a youthful and growing population. Some 11.5 million children are of school age in the country, spread across an approximate 40,000 school buildings providing 355,000 classrooms nationwide. There is a significant gap in the education infrastructure generating a need for an estimated 5,000 new schools - or about 60,000 classrooms - to meet current demand. 31 This offers substantial education development opportunities, especially around the populations centres of Cairo and Alexandria

8 Interested in finding out more? Enquire to Exhibit at The Big 5 Construct Egypt Taking place on September 2018 New Cairo Exhibition Center

Egypt in 2017: The Second Year on the Road of Reform

Egypt in 2017: The Second Year on the Road of Reform BLOMINVEST BANK January 23, 2018 Contact Information Head of Research: Marwan Mikhael Research Analyst: Riwa Daou Junior Analyst: Rouba Chbeir Research Assistant: Dina Antonios The Egyptian economy witnessed