The ACCI Westpac Survey of Industrial Trends Q2 2013: 51.7 versus 46.5 prior. Partial recovery in Q2; outlook challenging.

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Judith Payne
5 years ago
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1 Bulletin The ACCI Westpac Survey of Industrial Trends Q 13: 51.7 versus.5 prior Partial recovery in Q; outlook challenging. The Westpac ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends, the longest running business survey in Australia, dating back to 19, continues to provide a timely update on economic conditions and prospects. The survey reports that economic conditions for the manufacturing sector remained relatively subdued in the June quarter. The Westpac ACCI Actual composite was 51.7 in the June quarter, up 5.pts from.5 in the opening three months of 13. A reading of 51.7 indicates modest growth, which will only partially unwind some of the ground lost in the previous quarter. New orders improved to a net balance of +9%. This may suggest that the upturn in new housing construction is beginning to filter through to the broader economy. However, this improvement is from a weak starting position, with a net balance of 7% recorded in the March quarter. The survey captures the period in which the Australian dollar weakened sharply, down around 7 against the USD. Notwithstanding this, exports declined in the June quarter and export expectations deteriorated. The currency is still relatively high, and perhaps more importantly, global demand is subdued. Labour market conditions are set to remain soft, the survey finds. The upward trend in the unemployment rate is likely to continue. Manufacturers reduced employee numbers in the June quarter, and plan to lower their headcount again in the September quarter. The Westpac ACCI Labour Market Composite, which has historically given a reliable guide to economy wide job prospects, remained negative and suggests that jobs will fail to keep pace with population growth. Firms are responding to fluctuations in new orders by managing overtime. Excess spare capacity persists, with the capacity utilisation level in the June quarter remaining below its long run average, albeit a little above the March reading. On wages and prices, the survey confirms that inflation remains particularly benign. A net 9% of respondents report that they expect their next wage deal will result in wage growth below the last. Business profits remain under pressure, reflecting both underwhelming sales and margin compression. Investment intentions remain weak, with capacity utilisation below average. Westpac-ACCI composite es Actual & expected, sa Actual Expected Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9 Jun- Jun-8 Manufacturing & the business cycle Westpac-ACCI composite & domestic demand % ann domestic demand (lhs) actual composite (rhs) - 15 Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-1 Jun-5 Jun-9 Jun-13 General business situation Next six months Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-1 Jun-5 Jun-9 Jun-13 1

2 The Westpac ACCI Actual Composite has a solid track record of predicting near-term domestic final demand growth, including identifying turning points in the cycle. The components of the Composite Index are output, new orders, backlog of work, employment and overtime, with weights equivalent to the US ISM (nee NAPM) manufacturing survey. Australian & US manufacturing surveys Westpac-ACCI & ISM composite es, Factset Ahead of the June quarter release, the March quarter national accounts highlighted that the Australian economy began 13 on a weak footing. Domestic demand contracted by.3% in Q1 following insipid gains of.1% in Q3 and.% in Q. As a result, annual domestic demand growth slowed to 1.1%, the weakest outcome since 9 and June 1 before that. The Q1 decline in domestic demand reflected: disappointing consumer spending; flat overall dwelling activity; a sharp fall in business investment; and was despite a (temporary) strengthening in public demand. Westpac-ACCI (lhs) ISM (rhs) Jun-83 Jun-89 Jun-95 Jun-1 Jun-7 Jun-13 Sub-trend economic growth also translated into softer labour market conditions, with hours worked up just.9% over the year. The high Australian dollar is eroding the competitiveness of trade exposed sectors, a significant negative for the economy. Export deliveries Actual & expected In light of the poor momentum in early 13, it was positive to see a rebound in the Westpac-ACCI Actual composite in Q, from.5 to A reading of 51.7 indicates modest growth in the sector, although it arguably only partially unwinds the ground lost in Q1. Taking a broader perspective, the Q1 result is only the third expansionary print in the past two years. Conditions in the sector clearly remain weak. Output rebounded in Q following Q1's decline. A net 3% of respondents reported an increase in activity, primarily due to a rise in the number of respondents reporting greater output (5% versus 17%). New orders also improved in the June quarter, with the net balance measure rising to 9%. Both results give some indication that the upturn in new housing construction might be beginning to filter through to the broader economy. That being said, the actual output and new order measures have both been volatile over the past two years and are currently only around their long-run average levels, signalling solid but not strong momentum. On the external front, actual export deliveries contracted in the quarter, while export expectations were pared back. Despite the circa 7 depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar between the Q1 and Q surveys, the currency remains at a historically high level. What's more, global demand conditions remain subdued, further restricting end demand. Given the volatility and lack of momentum apparent in the domestic and external activity indicators, it was unsurprising to see the Labour Market Composite remain soft at.3 in Q, albeit up from 7.1 in Q1. At this level, the composite is consistent with annualised employment growth of a little above 1.5% over the coming six months, which would likely result in a modest rise in the unemployment rate. The Q labour market detail was concerning in that the improvement in the composite only came about owing to a large jump in actual overtime. Actual and expected employment both declined in the quarter, as did expected overtime. On employment specifically, respondents reported further broadbased job shedding in the sector in Q, worse than expected three months ago. Indeed, just 8% of respondents reported an increase in headcount in the quarter, a similar result to that seen in mid-9 when the Actual Composite fell to its GFC-induced low of 3.. The near two-year long contraction in manufacturers' headcount is a significant concern for the broader economy. - actual expected - - Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-1 Jun-5 Jun-9 Jun Jobs growth to remain soft % ann, ABS Westpac labour market composite - adv qtrs (lhs) employment growth (rhs) - - Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-1 Jun-5 Jun-9 Jun Difficulty of finding labour % Sources: Westpac, ACCI, RBA, ABS difficulty of finding labour - inverted (lhs) unemployment rate (rhs) RBA hikes 8 Jun-85 Jun-9 Jun-95 Jun- Jun-5 Jun- %

3 Corroborated by available ABS industry employment data, it points to manufacturers being forced to seek efficiency and minimise fixed costs, with overtime used if/when bursts of demand occur. A similar trend can be seen in the Q investment detail. The plant & equipment net balance outcome of 3% points to a modest rise in equipment investment over the coming year. That said, investment intentions remain at a weak level following the deterioration seen over the six months to March. In Q, the building investment intentions net balance recorded a ninth consecutive negative quarter ( 15% from 11%). Given the uncertain outlook and apparent existing excess capacity, capacity expansion looks to be off manufacturers' agenda; rather, they look to be focused on maintaining capacity and (arguably) improving efficiency through targeted equipment investment. The CAPEX survey is consistent with this thesis, seeing a decline in manufacturing sector investment of 8% in 1/13 and a planned further reduction of % in 13/1. The results of the Q survey very clearly highlight that profitability (actual and expected) remains a key concern for Australian manufacturers. Global and domestic demand (or the lack there of) is restricting sales volumes; together with the strong currency, soft end demand is also restricting pricing power. In Q, the gross proportion of respondents reporting an increase in selling prices remained low at 1% (from 5%), versus a historical average of 31%. 79% of respondents reported no change in the quarter. Profit margins are also under pressure on the cost front. In the current quarter, almost a third of respondents reported an increase in unit costs, while just 9% experienced lower costs of production. Wage growth expectations have been reigned in in recent quarters as labour availability has improved, but the survey suggests this has had a minimal impact on the rate of growth in total production costs. Overall, profit expectations for the sector remain weak at 5% in net balance terms. This has been the case for the past two years during which the net balance has averaged a little over 1%, compared to the 17% average for the two years to June 11. Respondents expectations for the outlook remain generally favourable. The Expected Composite rose from 53. to 5.5 in Q, indicating respondents expect further moderate growth in the second half of 13. That being said, the Expected Composite has consistently overestimated the strength of actual conditions over the past two years. The deterioration in the expected 'general business situation during the next six months' (from 8% to 3% in net terms) to around long-run average points to a more circumspect attitude over the general business environment relative to firms' expectations of their own performance. Australian manufacturers are right to be cognisant of the risks. Growth in the domestic economy remains decidedly below trend. What's more, the response of the economy to lower rates has proven much more timid than expected. With the mining investment boom now coming to an end, there is a real need for stronger growth in the interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. With global end demand unlikely to provide respite and the strength of the Australian dollar consequently set to persist, there is a real need for active monetary policy to spark momentum. Manufacturers, the service sector and households alike will all welcome further accommodation from the Reserve Bank. Activity & capital investment Westpac-ACCI composite & equipment investment % ann, ABS P&E investment - 3qtr MA (lhs) Westpac-ACCI composite (rhs) 5 - Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-1 Jun-5 Jun-9 Jun-13 Investment intentions Next twelve months plant & equipment building - - Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-1 Jun-5 Jun-9 Jun-13 Profit expectations Next twelve months Jun-9 Jun-95 Jun-98 Jun-1 Jun- Jun-7 Jun- Jun-13 Average unit costs Actual & expected actual expected Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-1 Jun-5 Jun-9 Jun-13 Elliot Clarke, Economist +1 ()

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