Cracking the Tax Codes: How State Tax Laws Influence the Number of Manufacturing Jobs within Their Borders
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1 Cracking the Tax Codes: How State Tax Laws Influence the Number of Manufacturing Jobs within Their Borders Nick Lorenson Bemidji State University Political Science Senior Thesis Dr. Patrick Donnay, Advisor Spring 2013
2 Where to Locate a Business? Factors Taxes Geography Levels of Education Unionization Workforce Infrastructure Economic Climate
3 Importance to Me Manufacturing Facilities in My Home Region Digikey, Polaris, Arctic Cat, Marvin Windows, Mattracks, Central Boiler Jobs Local Economy Schools How to Grow and Bring in More Factories?
4 Literature Review Blair, John P. & Premus, Robert Major factors in industrial location: a review (Economic Development Quarterly) 1987 Journal Article contrasting studies concerning where businesses locate between 1960s & 1980s Traditional Location Factors Access to markets, labor, transportation, and raw materials Emerging Location Factors State and local taxes, education, business climate, labor skills, state and local infrastructure
5 Literature Review Chirinko, Robert S. & Wilson, Daniel J. State business taxes and investment: state-bystate simulations (Economic Review) Equipment and Research Tax Credit Research and Development Tax Credit Corporate Income Tax Investment and output
6 Literature Review Cornia, Gary, Edmistor Kelly D., Sjoquist, David L., and Wallace, Sally The disappearing state corporate income tax (National Tax Journal) Why has the percentage of state revenue from corporate income taxes decreased? Tax planning Tax Credits Definitions Overall economy
7 Literature Review Bartik, Timothy J. Business Location Decisions in the United States: Estimates of the Effects of Unionization, Taxes, and Other Characteristics of States (Journal of Business & Economic Statistics) Unionization Tax rates/incentives Public Spending
8 Literature Review Harden, William J., and Hoyt, William H. Do States Choose Their Mix of Taxes to Minimize Employment Losses? (National Tax Journal) Mixture of taxes Level of employment Effect of neighboring states tax rates Sales, individual income and corporate income Corporate income found to be significant
9 Digital Age Have Factors Changed in Importance? Access to Markets Increased Mobility
10 Hypotheses In a comparison of the fifty US states, those with lower individual income taxes draw in more new manufacturing jobs than those with higher individual income taxes. In a comparison of the fifty US states, those with lower corporate income taxes draw in more new manufacturing jobs than those with higher corporate income taxes.
11 Hypotheses In a comparison of the fifty US states, those with lower sales taxes draw in more new manufacturing jobs than those with higher sales taxes.
12 Database Census Bureau Total State Taxes Sales Tax Individual Income Tax Corporate Tax Population
13 Database Bureau of Economic Analysis Total GDP Manufacturing GDP Manufacturing GDP by Subset
14 Types of Analysis Scatterplots Overall Visual Demonstration Correlations Statistical Significance Regressions Measure of Cause and Effect
15 Scatterplot
16 Scatterplot
17 Scatterplot
18 Correlations Sales Tax Statistically insignificant Pearson s Coefficient P value.806
19 Correlations Individual Income Tax Statistically Insignificant Pearson s Coefficient.039 P Value.787
20 Correlations Corporate Income Tax Statistically Insignificant Pearson s Coefficient P Value.730
21 Table 1 Correlation Coefficients with Change in Manufacturing GDP Per Capita as Dependent Variable Economic Variables Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state.289* Federal defense expenditures per capita within state Demographic Variables Coefficient Percent of state population years old.272* Percent of state population age 65 and older Percent of the state s mass public identifying as conservative.167 Percent of state population with high school degree or higher *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01
22 Regressions Sales Tax Statistically Insignificant Regression Coefficient Beta Coefficient -.059
23 Regressions Individual Income Tax Statistically Insignificant Regression Coefficient Beta Coefficient.021
24 Regressions Corporate Income Tax Statistically Insignificant Regression Coefficient Beta Coefficient.181 Most Influential Tax
25 Table 2 Regression Results with Change in Manufacturing GDP Per Capita as Dependent Variable Regression Beta Economic Variables Coefficient Coefficient Percentage change in total sales tax 2001 and Percentage change in individual income tax 2001 and Percentage change in corporate income tax 2001 and Unemployment rate within state.670*.337* Federal defense expenditures per capita within state Demographic Variables Regression Coefficient Beta Coefficient Percent of state population years old Percent of state population age 65 and older Percent of the mass public conservative Percent of population with high school degree or higher *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01 Constant
26 Manufacturing Subsets Apparel, Leather and Applied Products Chemical Computer and Electronic Products Electronic Equipment, Appliances, and Components Furniture and Related Products Machinery
27 Manufacturing Subsets Motor Vehicle Body, Trailer and Parts Miscellaneous Manufacturing Other Transportation Equipment Paper Plastics and Rubber Printing and Related Support Textile
28 Results Correlations Total Sales Tax not significant Corporate Income Tax significant for Paper and Apparel, Leather and Applied Products Individual Income Tax significant for Computers and Electronic Products Unemployment Rate significant for Computers and Electronic Products, Plastics and Rubber, Machinery, and Textile Percent of population significant for Machinery, Furniture, Apparel, Leather and Applied Products, & Printing
29 Results Regressions Total Sales Tax not significant Individual Income Tax significant for Furniture Corporate Income Tax significant for Apparel, Leather and Applied Products & Paper Unemployment significant for Computer and Electronic Products, Machinery, Miscellaneous Manufacturing, and Textile Manufacturing Percentage of Population significant for Furniture, Miscellaneous Manufacturing, Apparel, Leather, and Applied Products & Printing and Related Support
30 References Badenhausen, Kurt. (2011). The Best States of Business Methodology. Forbes. Bartik, Timothy. (1985). Business location decisions in the united states: estimates of the effects of unionization, taxes, and other characteristics of states. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics., 3(1), \ Blair, John. (1987). Major factors in industrial location: a review. Economic Development Quarterly., 1(1), Brooks, Melissa. Ruiz, Julio. Accetta, Elizabeth. (2011). State government: tax collections summary reports:2010. Census of Governments. Bruce, Donald. Fox, William. Yang, Zhou. (2010). Base mobility and state personal income taxes. National Tax Journal., 4(2), Chirinko, Robert. (2010). State business taxes and investment: state-by-state simulations. Economic Review Cline, Robert. Phillips, Andrew. Neubig, Thomas. (2011). Competitiveness of state and local business taxes on new investment. Council of State Governments.
31 References Cornia, Gary. Edmiston, Kelly. Sjoquist, David. Wallace, Sally. (2005). The disappearing state corporate income tax. National Tax Journal., Lviii(1), Fox, William. Luna, LeAnn. (2002). State corporate tax revenue trends: causes and possible solutions. National Tax Journal., Lv(3), Gupta, Sanjay. (2009). Empirical evidence on the revenue effects of state corporate income tax policies. National Tax Journal., Lxii(2), Harden, William. Hoyt, William. (2003). Do states choose their mix of taxes to minimize employment losses?. National Tax Journal., Lvi(1), Poulson, Barry. (2008). State income taxes and economic growth. Cato Journal., 28(1), Robyn, Mark. (2012). Recommendations for north dakota\'s tax system. The Tax Foundation. Robyn, Mark. (2012) state business tax climate index. The Tax Foundation.
32 Questions???
33 Table 3 Correlation Coefficients with Change in Manufacturing GDP Per Capita as Dependent Variable by Manufacturing Subset Computer and Electronic Product Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and * Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state.306** Percent of state population years old *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01 Plastics and Rubber Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state -.284** Percent of state population years old.211 *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01
34 Machinery Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state -.257* Percent of state population years old.376*** *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01 Electronic Equipment, Appliances and Components Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state.088 Percent of state population years old.017 *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01
35 Motor Vehicle Body, Trailer and Parts Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state Percent of state population years old.074 *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01 Other Transportation Equipment Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state.001 Percent of state population years old *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01
36 Furniture and Related Products Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state Percent of state population years old.007*** *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01 Miscellaneous Manufacturing Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state Percent of state population years old *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01
37 Textile Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state -.240* Percent of state population years old.132 *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01 Apparel, Leather and Applied Products Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state.038 Percent of state population years old.262 *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01
38 Paper Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and * Unemployment rate within state.138 Percent of state population years old.192 *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01 Printing and Related Support Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state.013** Percent of state population years old.319 *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01
39 Chemical Coefficient Percentage change in state total sales tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state individual income tax between 2001 and Percentage change in state corporate income tax between 2001 and Unemployment rate within state.172 Percent of state population years old.231 *sig at.10, ** sig at.05, *** sig at.01
40 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difference between the per capita real GDP between 2001 and 2010 for Computer and Electronic Product
41 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita 8.681E E E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difference Between the Per Capita Real GDP of the Plastics and Rubber Subset for 2001 and 2010
42 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population 4.869E Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difference between the machinery subset for 2001 and 2010
43 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difference Between Electronic Equipment, Appliance and Component 2001 and 2010
44 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difference Between Motor Vehicle Body, Trailer and Parts
45 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difference between other Transporation Equipment 2001 and 2010
46 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E E E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difference Between Furniture 2001 and 2010
47 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difference Between Miscellaneous Manufacturing 2001 and 2010
48 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and 2011 a. Dependent Variable: DifbtwTextile01and
49 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: DifbtwApparelLeatherandappliedproducts01and10
50 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difbtwpaper01and10
51 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difbtwprinting01and10
52 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) Percent workers who are union members (2007) Percent of pop w/college or higher Percent of pop w/hs or higher Percent urban population Unemployment rate Percent mass public Conservative Percent mass public Republican Federal defense expenditures per capita E Percent age (2004) Percent age 65 and older state Corporate Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state Individual Income taxes between 2001 and 2011 state total sales taxes between 2001 and a. Dependent Variable: Difbtwchemical01and10
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