Global Insight Daily March 9, 2018
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- Paulina Perry
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1 RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Global Insight Daily March 9, 2018 Good morning all, Equity investors seem to be calming down after the February correction as they are continuously reminded that the global economy keeps surging ahead. The VIX Index, a loose gauge of investor sentiment, fell another 20% this week. Although not yet back to the levels they reached in January, stocks are slowly climbing back. Canadian stocks are up 1% as they continue to lag other developed markets in the face of uncertain NAFTA negotiations and the year of reckoning that lies ahead for debt laden Canadian real estate holders. US stock investors continue to be blind to high valuations in the face of compelling stories about the new world order that tech stocks promise, as the S&P 500 gained 2%. EU and Emerging Market stocks, still favorites of ours, gained 3% and 2%, respectively. Interest rates climbed back up a bit after their see-saw ride last week thanks to the mixed messages the new Fed Chair provided to Congress on interest rate directionality. The Loonie steadied this week after falling considerably against the US dollar and most other currencies in the past few weeks. Bitcoin fell 20% this week. I do not look at
2 Bitcoin as an investment, nor a currency but instead as a rough measure of investor foolishness. Suffice it to say, investors got less foolish this week. Geopolitical anxiety will hopefully fall after news broke that Trump and Kim Jong Un have agreed to meet by May. I m sure that Saturday Night Live is queueing up some good skits to parody this! I find it very ironic that Un has used nuclear threats to posture for these talks in order to negotiate a better deal, while Donald Trump has clearly used the same tactics with his trade rhetoric over the past few weeks. Trade rhetoric dominated the headlines this week with President Donald Trump ratcheting up pressure on trading partners over the weekend by putting the European auto industry in his sights in response to threats from European, Chinese and other officials that they would retaliate against his proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Meanwhile, a top US trade official cautioned US allies (such as Canada) to expect no country exemptions from the planned steel and aluminum tariffs. Mounting signs of a protectionist ramp-up in Washington has had investors pondering the potential for an all-out trade war around the world and the implications of such an outcome on the global economic outlook. While investors are hoping cooler heads will ultimately prevail, the ostensibly increased odds of a global trade war is likely remaining a significant source of volatility for financial markets in the near term. By the end of the week, however, Trump imposed slightly less punitive tariffs, as the White House formally adopted tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, while providing provisional exemptions granted to Canada and Mexico and this has helped to assuage concerns of a further escalation in trade frictions. Many are opining that Trump took a page out of Un s negotiating book as the latest tariffs scheme looks more like a negotiating tactic for NAFTA renegotiations, rather than the beginning of a trade war.
3 Tariffs and trade wars hurt everyone. Even though what Trump eventually did was less bad than feared it was still bad, not just for US trading partners but for the US as well. With the exception of a small minority in protected industries, both political and corporate heads are condemning Trumps recent bought of precociousness. To wit, Trump s top economic advisor, Gary Cohn, resigned in protest this week. News of his resignation came on the heels of his disagreement with Trump s proposal to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. For investors, Cohn s departure raises the risk that the US could push ahead with more protectionist policies. Cohn, a former investment banker whose probusiness and pro-trade stance was welcomed by markets, is broadly viewed as a voice of sanity in an increasingly chaotic White House as well as a moderating influence on the administration s trade and financial policies. Perhaps the most pertinent question for financial markets is whether Cohn s departure will usher in a radical shift in US economic policies, a difficult question to answer without knowing the choice of his replacement. If Cohn s resignation marks a more aggressive return to the protectionist policies it would likely have significant implications for global growth, which may cloud the outlook for corporate earnings and contribute to further turbulence in markets. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde cautioned on Wednesday that the economic impact of a trade war would be serious, not only if the US took action, but especially if other countries were to retaliate, notably those who would be most affected, such as Canada, Europe, and Germany in particular. This morning the job data out of the US was another blowout, with 313,000 new jobs created against expectations for just 200,000 jobs. Wage growth was tepid, which is contrary to the jump in wages in January that spooked the market. As a result the market has applauded the report with stocks gaining nicely this morning. Canadian jobs were solid; a gain of 15,400 for an economy that is
4 1/10 th the size of the US is nothing to sneeze at. But for Canada, the outlook is more murky with Trump s NAFTA belligerence still looming and the impact of stricter mortgage rules that began in 2018, yet to show up in the economic data. The Bank of Canada did not tweak interest rates this week and in their accompanying statement they were cautious about their outlook given the above as well as the recent economic data which has been solid, but unimpressive. RBC has forecasted that there are 3 more rate hikes to come this year but I doubt it. Blackrock has said to expect only one hike and I would lean more toward Blackrock, if not in between the two opinions. In Europe, the ECB hinted at easing their Quantitative Easing program which would be the first step in what will be a long process of allowing interest rates to go back up. As for the US, rates have a much clearer path upward as economic data remains robust and Trump s tax cuts will further ignite inflation risks. Again, we are preparing for higher rates from multiple avenues and we would advise you to do the same. This week I have attached RBC s summary of the recent Federal Budget. Have a great weekend, Nick Milau, BBA (Fin), FMA, CIM, FCSI Vice President, Portfolio Manager and Financial Planner Milau Fairhurst Private Wealth Management Group RBC Dominion Securities T nick.milau@rbc.com This information is not investment advice and should be used only in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Investment Advisor. This will ensure that your own circumstances have been considered properly and that action is taken on the latest available information. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time obtained but neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers can guarantee its accuracy or
5 completeness. This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers is to be under any responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof. The inventories of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. may from time to time include securities mentioned herein. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. is a member company of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence RBC Dominion Securities Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy & Security Legal Accessibility Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. is a member company of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. RBC Dominion Securities Inc All rights reserved.
6 The Navigator INVESTMENT, TAX AND LIFESTYLE PERSPECTIVES FROM RBC WEALTH MANAGEMENT SERVICES RBC Wealth Management Services 2018 Federal Budget Key tax measures that may have a direct impact on you
7 2 RBC Wealth Management 2018 Federal Budget February 27, 2018 A summary of the key tax measures that may have a direct impact on you Federal Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau, delivered the Liberal Government s budget on February 27, Many of the budget s tax measures are aimed at tightening perceived loopholes or inequalities in various aspects of the tax system. Several measures have been proposed relating to Canada s international taxation rules, which aim to broaden and protect Canada s tax base and reinforce the Government s commitments to address global tax evasion. Prior to implementing any strategies, individuals should consult with a qualified tax advisor, legal professional or other applicable professional. While it has been the long-standing practice of the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) to allow taxpayers to file their tax returns based on proposed legislation, a taxpayer remains potentially liable for taxes under current law in the event that a budget proposal is not ultimately passed. Therefore, if proposed legislation does not become law, it is possible that the CRA may assess or re-assess your tax return based on existing legislation. It is recommended that you consult a qualified tax advisor to assist you in assessing the costs and benefits of proceeding with specific budget proposals as they relate to you. PERSONAL TAX CHANGES Reporting Requirements for Trusts Currently, there is no requirement for a trust to report the identity of all its beneficiaries to government authorities. To improve the collection of beneficial ownership information with respect to trusts and to help the CRA assess the tax liability for trusts and its beneficiaries, the budget proposes new annual reporting requirements for certain trusts. all trustees; beneficiaries of the trust; settlors of the trust; and each person who has the ability (through the trust terms or a related agreement) to exert control over trustee decisions regarding the appointment of income or capital of the trust. The new reporting requirements will apply to express trusts that are resident in Canada and to non-resident trusts that are currently required to file a T3 return. An express trust is generally a trust created with the settlor s express intent, usually made in writing. The new reporting requirements will require certain trusts to file an annual T3 return where currently there is no requirement to do so. For example, currently, a trust that does not earn income or does not make a distribution in a year will generally not have to file a T3 return. Exceptions to the additional reporting requirements are proposed for a number of types of trusts, including: mutual fund trusts and segregated funds; trusts governed by registered plans (e.g., DPSPs, PRPPs, RDSPs, RESPs, RPPs, RRIFs, RRSPs, and TFSAs); graduated rate estates and qualified disability trusts; trusts that qualify as non-profit organizations or registered charities; Trusts subject to the new reporting requirements will also be required to report the identity of: trusts that have been in existence for less than three months; and
8 RBC Wealth Management 3 trusts that hold less than $50,000 in assets throughout the taxation year (provided, their holdings are confined to deposits, government debt obligations and listed securities). The budget proposes new penalties for the failure to file a T3 return, including a required beneficial ownership schedule, where the schedule is required. The penalty will be equal to $25 for each day late, with a minimum penalty of $100 and a maximum penalty of $2,500. An additional penalty may apply if failure to file the return was made knowingly, or due to gross negligence. The additional penalty will be equal to 5% of the maximum fair market value of property held during the relevant year by the trust, with a minimum penalty of $2,500. These proposed new reporting requirements and associated penalties will apply to returns required to be filed for the 2021 and subsequent taxation years. New Employment Insurance Parental Sharing Benefit EI maternity and parental benefits are available to help parents care for their children. EI parental benefits are available to both parents, allowing either parent to take time off work. Generally, it is the mother who takes on the primary caregiving responsibilities. To support greater gender equality in the home and in the workplace, the budget proposes to introduce a new EI Parental Sharing Benefit, expected to be available in June The proposed benefit will be available to eligible two-parent families, including adoptive and same-sex couples. The new benefit is modelled after the program currently available in Quebec. Under the current standard programs, in addition to a maximum of 15 weeks of EI maternity leave benefits, parents can choose to receive: up to 35 weeks of EI parental leave at a benefit rate of 55% of average weekly earnings paid over a period of 12 months, or up to 61 weeks of EI parental leave at a benefit rate of 33% of average weekly earnings paid over a period of 18 months. If one parent decides to take all the weeks available under the current EI parental benefits program there are no weeks available to the other parent. When both parents agree to share parental leave, the proposed new EI parental benefits will provide additional weeks of leave on a use it or lose it basis. For example, in addition to maternity leave, where the second parent agrees to take a minimum of five weeks of EI parental leave, and they have opted to take the standard payment over 12 months, the proposed new benefit would increase EI parental leave by up to five weeks. This increases the total leave to 40 weeks. Alternatively, where parents have opted for payment over 18 months, the second parent would be able to take up to eight weeks of additional parental leave for a total of 69 weeks. In cases where the second parent opts not to take any weeks of the EI parental benefits, the standard leave durations of 35 weeks and 61 weeks will apply. Registered Disability Savings Plan Qualifying Plan Holders Where the capacity of an adult individual to enter into a contract is in doubt, the Income Tax Act ( Act ) requires that the plan holder of the individual s Registered Disability Savings Plan (RDSP) be the individual s legal representative, as recognized under provincial or territorial law. Establishing a legal guardian can be a lengthy and expensive process. There is currently a temporary federal measure that allows a qualifying family member (i.e., a parent, spouse or common-law partner) to be the plan holder of the individual s RDSP where the individual s capacity to enter into a contract is in doubt and they do not have a legal representative. The measure is set to expire at the end of The budget proposes to extend this temporary measure to the end of A qualifying family member who becomes a plan holder before the end of 2023 could remain the plan holder after Canada Workers Benefit The Working Income Tax Benefit is a refundable tax credit that supplements the earnings of low-income workers and provides work incentives for low-income earners. The budget proposes to rename the program to the Canada Workers Benefit (CWB). In addition, to provide increased support and further improve work incentives, the budget proposes to increase the amount of the benefit to 26% of each dollar of earned income in excess of $3,000 to a maximum benefit of $1,355 for single individuals without dependants and $2,335 for families (couples and single parents), starting in The benefit will be reduced by 12% of adjusted net income in excess of $12,820 for single individuals without dependants
9 4 RBC Wealth Management and $17,025 for families. Individuals who are eligible for the Disability Tax Credit (DTC) may also receive a CWB disability supplement. In circumstances where an individual does not claim the benefit, the budget proposes to allow the CRA to determine if the individual is eligible for the CWB and assess their return as if the benefit had been claimed. This measure will apply to the 2019 and subsequent taxation years and indexation of CWB amounts will apply after the 2019 taxation year. Medical Expense Tax Credit Eligible Expenses The Medical Expense Tax Credit (METC) is a 15% nonrefundable tax credit. The budget proposes to expand the METC to recognize costs incurred with respect to animals that are specifically trained to help individuals cope with severe mental impairment, for example, a psychiatric dog trained to assist with post-traumatic stress disorder. Expenses will not be eligible if they are in respect of an animal that only provides comfort or emotional support and has not been specially trained to perform tasks such as guiding a disoriented patient, searching a home of a patient with severe anxiety before they enter and applying compression to a patient experiencing night terrors. This measure will apply in respect of eligible expenses incurred after Enhancing the Wage Earner Protection Program To better support workers, the budget proposes to increase the maximum payment under the Wage Earner Protection Program from four to seven weeks of Employment Insurance (EI) insurable earnings. The Government also proposes changes to make eligibility for the program more equitable for workers who are owed wages, vacation, severance or termination pay when their employer files for bankruptcy or enters receivership. Child Benefits The budget proposes to amend the Act to provide legislative authority for the Government to share taxpayer information related to the Canada Child Benefit with the provinces and territories, as of July 1, 2018, solely for the purpose of administering their social assistance payment regimes. The budget proposes that foreign-born status Indians residing legally in Canada who are neither Canadian citizens nor permanent residents are made retroactively eligible for the former Canada Child Tax Benefit, the National Child Benefit supplement and the Universal Child Care Benefit, where all other eligibility requirements are met. This amendment applies from the 2005 taxation year to June 30, Charitable Donations to Universities Outside Canada An individual may claim the charitable donation tax credit or deduction for donations made to registered charities and other qualified donees, including universities outside Canada. As part of the current charity registration process, qualifying universities outside Canada are required to be listed in the Income Tax Regulations ( Regulations ) as well as on the Government of Canada s website. To streamline the registration process, the budget proposes to remove the requirement that universities outside Canada be prescribed in the Regulations as of February 27, Deductibility of Employee Contributions to the Enhanced Portion of the Quebec Pension Plan To provide consistent income tax treatment of CPP and QPP contributions, the budget proposes to provide a deduction for employee contributions (as well as the employee share of contributions made by selfemployed persons) to the enhanced portion of the QPP. Legislation had previously been amended to provide for the deductibility of the enhanced CPP contributions commencing in The enhanced portion of employee CPP and QPP contributions will be deductible for Quebec income tax purposes for the 2019 and subsequent taxation years. Mineral Exploration Credit The budget proposes to extend eligibility for the mineral exploration tax credit for one year, to flow-through share agreements entered into on or before March 31, 2019.
10 RBC Wealth Management 5 BUSINESS TAX CHANGES Passive Investment Income In July 2017, the Government announced that it was considering approaches that will improve the fairness and neutrality of the tax system, such that savings held within corporations are taxed in a manner that is equivalent to savings held directly by individuals. The Government sought feedback from the public regarding this issue. Taking into account the feedback received from the July 2017 consultation, the Government proposes two measures to limit the tax deferral advantage associated with earning passive investment income inside private corporations: Small Business Limit: The tax rate for qualifying active business income of small CCPCs is 10% for 2018 and 9% as of This preferential tax rate applies on up to $500,000 of qualifying active business income. This $500,000 limit, known as the business limit, is reduced on a straight-line basis for a CCPC and its associated corporations having between $10 million and $15 million of total taxable capital employed in Canada. Any active business income earned above the business limit is taxed at the general corporate tax rate of 15%. The budget proposes to introduce a measure that will reduce the business limit for CCPCs that have significant income from passive investments. Under this measure, the business limit will be reduced on a straight-line basis for CCPCs having between $50,000 and $150,000 of investment income. The new business limit reduction will be calculated as the greater of the reduction based on taxable capital and the reduction based on passive investment income. Refundability of Taxes on Investment Income: The current tax regime relating to refundable taxes on investment income of private corporations seeks to tax income from passive investments at a rate that is approximately equal to the top personal income tax rate while that income is retained in the corporation. Some or all of these taxes are added to the corporation s refundable dividend tax on hand (RDTOH) account and refundable at a rate of $38.33 for every $100 of taxable dividends paid to its shareholders. This refund is available regardless of whether eligible or noneligible dividends are paid to the shareholder. The budget proposes two RDTOH accounts: eligible RDTOH and non-eligible RDTOH. The eligible RDTOH account will be created to track the RDTOH that arises from eligible dividends received by a corporation, so that the corporation will still be able to obtain a refund of the RDTOH upon payment of eligible dividends. The non-eligible RDTOH account will track any other refundable taxes paid by the corporation. In most cases, this amount will be refunded where a corporation pays non-eligible dividends. These measures are applicable to taxation years beginning after Health and Welfare Trusts A Health and Welfare Trust is a trust set up by an employer for the purpose of providing health and welfare benefits to its employees. The tax treatment of such a trust is not set out explicitly in the Act. Instead, the CRA has published administrative positions regarding the requirements for qualifying as a Health and Welfare Trust along with rules relating to contributions to, and the computation of taxable income of, such a trust. The Act does, however, contain rules relating to Employee Life and Health Trusts. These trusts also provide health benefits for employees. These set of rules are very similar to the CRA s administrative positions for Health and Welfare Trusts; however, there are certain differences. For example, a Health and Welfare Trust does not limit the number of key employees who can be beneficiaries of this trust, whereas an Employee Life and Health Trust does. In order to provide more certainty for taxpayers, the budget proposes that only one set of rules apply to these arrangements. The CRA will no longer apply their administrative positions with respect to Health and Welfare Trusts after the end of Existing Health and Welfare Trusts will be required to either convert to an Employee Life and Health Trust by December 31, 2020 or wind up. Trusts that do not convert (or wind up) to an Employee Life and Health Trust will be subject to the normal income tax rules for trusts. The CRA will also not apply their administrative positions to new Health and Welfare Trusts established after February 27, New trusts will be required to satisfy the Employee Life and Health Trust rules. To facilitate the conversion of existing Health and Welfare Trusts to Employee Life and Health Trusts, transitional rules will be added to the Act following a consultation period.
11 6 RBC Wealth Management INTERNATIONAL TAX CHANGES Cross-Border Surplus Stripping Using Partnerships and Trusts The existing cross-border surplus stripping rules seek to prevent a non-resident shareholder from entering into transactions that provide the ability to extract free of tax, the surplus from a Canadian corporation in excess of the paid-up capital (PUC) of its shares or to artificially increase the PUC. However, some non-resident taxpayers have entered into transactions (internal reorganizations) involving trusts and partnerships, which are not expressly addressed by the current rules, which may result in the ability to extract tax-free surplus from a Canadian corporation. The budget proposes to amend the existing provisions to introduce measures that will prevent such planning by adding comprehensive look-through rules for partnerships and trusts. Sharing of Information for Criminal Matters Canada has entered into 93 tax treaties and 23 Tax Information Exchange Agreements, and is one of 117 parties to the Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. In addition, Canada has entered into numerous mutual legal assistance agreements. These international instruments facilitate the administration and enforcement of the tax and other laws of both Canada and its international partners. The government will be proposing various legislative amendments to allow for the sharing of information internationally for the investigation, prosecution and suppression of serious criminal offences, both tax-related and non-tax-related. The government s intention is that any such amendments will come into force upon the granting of Royal Assent to the enacting legislation. These measures will apply to transactions that occur on or after February 27, Transactions that occurred before February 27, 2018 may be challenged by the CRA using the general anti-avoidance rule. Reporting and Reassessments Relating to Foreign Affiliates A foreign affiliate ( FA ) of a taxpayer resident in Canada is a non-resident corporation in which the taxpayer has a significant interest. Generally, taxpayers are required to file an information return each year in respect of each of their FAs in the year. These information returns are not due until 15 months after the end of the taxpayer s taxation year. The budget proposes to require the information returns to be filed within six months after the end of the taxpayer s taxation year. This measure will apply to taxation years that begin after Due to the complexity of audits that involve FAs, the budget also proposes to extend the reassessment period for a taxpayer by three years in respect of income arising in connection with a FA of the taxpayer. This measure will apply to taxation years that begin on or after February 27, 2018.
12 RBC Wealth Management 7 PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED MEASURES The budget confirms the Government s intention to proceed with a number of previously announced tax and related measures, as modified to take into account consultations and deliberations since their release, including: Measures released on December 13, 2017 that address income splitting using a private corporation; The lowering of the small business tax rate from 10.5% to 10%, effective January 1, 2018 and to 9% effective January 1, 2019; and The measure announced in Budget 2016 on information reporting requirements for certain dispositions of an interest in a life insurance policy.
13 8 RBC Wealth Management Please contact us for more information about the topics discussed in this article. This document has been prepared for use by the RBC Wealth Management member companies, RBC Dominion Securities Inc. (RBC DS)*, RBC Phillips, Hager & North Investment Counsel Inc. (RBC PH&N IC), RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM), Royal Trust Corporation of Canada and The Royal Trust Company (collectively, the Companies ) and their affiliates, RBC Direct Investing Inc. (RBC DI) *, RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. (RBC WMFS) and Royal Mutual Funds Inc. (RMFI). *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Each of the Companies, their affiliates and the Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. RBC advisor refers to Private Bankers who are employees of Royal Bank of Canada and mutual fund representatives of RMFI, Investment Counsellors who are employees of RBC PH&N IC, Senior Trust Advisors and Trust Officers who are employees of The Royal Trust Company or Royal Trust Corporation of Canada, or Investment Advisors who are employees of RBC DS. In Quebec, financial planning services are provided by RMFI or RBC WMFS and each is licensed as a financial services firm in that province. In the rest of Canada, financial planning services are available through RMFI, Royal Trust Corporation of Canada, The Royal Trust Company, or RBC DS. Estate & Trust Services are provided by Royal Trust Corporation of Canada and The Royal Trust Company. If specific products or services are not offered by one of the Companies or RMFI, clients may request a referral to another RBC partner. Insurance products are offered through RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc., a subsidiary of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. When providing life insurance products in all provinces except Quebec, Investment Advisors are acting as Insurance Representatives of RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, Investment Advisors are acting as Financial Security Advisors of RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. is licensed as a financial services firm in the province of Quebec. The strategies, advice and technical content in this publication are provided for the general guidance and benefit of our clients, based on information believed to be accurate and complete, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This publication is not intended as nor does it constitute tax or legal advice. Readers should consult a qualified legal, tax or other professional advisor when planning to implement a strategy. This will ensure that their individual circumstances have been considered properly and that action is taken on the latest available information. Interest rates, market conditions, tax rules, and other investment factors are subject to change. This information is not investment advice and should only be used in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC advisor. None of the Companies, RMFI, RBC WMFS, RBC DI, Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence Royal Bank of Canada. All rights reserved. NAV0095 (03/17)
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