Z SCORES: AN EFFECTIVE WAY OF ANALYSING BANKS RISKS
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1 : AN EFFECTIVE WAY OF ANALYSING BANKS RISKS Sri Ayan Chakraborty Faculty: Accounting & Finance Nopany Institute of Management Studies, Kolkata Abstract Risk is recognised as the most important toll which drives the financial behaviour. Risk management activity integrates recognition of risk, risk assessment, developing strategies, and mitigation of risk using managerial resources. Financial risk management, on the other hand, focuses on risks that can be managed using traded financial instruments. The future of banking will undoubtedly rest on risk management dynamics. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of Comprehensive risk management essential for long-term success of a banking institution. One important tool that predicts the volatility and has gained popularity since 1985 is Edward Altman s Z Score Model (Altman, 1968). It is a multivariate formula used for the measurement of the financial health. The objective of paper is to make an attempt to identify the risks faced by the banking industry and the process of risk management. There is a major dearth of literature that examines the applicability of Altman s Z Score model to forecasting banking failures. Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations. I. INTRODUCTION The origin of the banking system could be traced back to 1786, when the General Bank of India was established. The origin of the banking system could be traced back to 1786, when the General Bank of India was established. The reforms in the banking sector started with the introduction of limited liability and joint-stock banking in British India. With the introduction of limited liability, the private banks began to appear and the foreign banks entered the market. In 1949, RBI was entrusted with the responsibility to regulate the commercial banks. SBI, with its extensive network coverage, acted as the principal agent of RBI. It also handled the banking transactions of the Union and State Governments all over the country. But the banking sector never welcomed foreign participation until In 1991, under the chairmanship of M Narasimham, a committee was set up by his name, which worked for the liberalization of banking practices. Finally, the financial sector reforms and economic liberalization and globalization measures were introduced. The foreign banks were allowed to open their branches in India. Indian Sector has undergone a sea change after the first phase of economic liberalization in 1991 and hence credit management. While the primary function of banks is to lend funds as loans to various sectors such as agriculture, industry, personal loans, housing loans etc., in recent times the banks have become very cautious in extending loans. Post reform era has changed the whole structure of banking sector of India. The emerging competition has resulted in new challenges for the Indian banks. Hence, parameters for evaluating the performance of banks have also changed. Z Scores Z score model is a hybrid model which calculates Z score for the corporate house on the basis of four variables viz., working capital, retained earnings, earnings before interest and tax, book value of equity, total liability and total assets. Looking into the scenario of business today the enhancing uncertainty scenario takes away the surety of existence from firms. The viability of banks holds prime importance as it relates to financial investments, funding, capacity building and expansion by ploughing back profits. Altman s Z-score has been widely used measure that applies an algorithm that has been found to have useful predictive value on the likelihood of a business going bankrupt. 94
2 X1: Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors. X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings are the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt. X3: Profit Before Taxes/Total Assets (PBT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm s assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow. X4: Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MV EQUITY /TL): The measure shows how much the firm s assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent. X5: Revenue/Total Assets (Revenue/TA): Capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm s assets. Z Score = 1.2 * X * X * X * X * X5 When Z-Score is less than 1.81, it is in Distress Zones When Z-Score is greater than 2.99, it is in Safe Zones When Z-Score is between 1.81 and 2.99, it is in Grey Zones II. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY 1. To analysis the Z Scores of some leading Commercial banks like Axis Bank, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank and its effect on Banks profitability 2. The objective of the study is to find out whether difference lies in the Z Scores occurrence between the various banks during the period of study III. SCOPE OF STUDY The study shows the financial position and the Z Scores of leading Indian commercial banks. This is the process of comparing income to output and determining how much profit was made during a specific time period. A properly conducted profitability analysis provides invaluable evidence concerning the earnings potential of a company and the effectiveness of management PERIOD OF STUDY The study covers a period of 5 years from 2012 to 2016 is taken for the study. METHODOLOGY Sources of Data The study is based on secondary data. Information required for the study has been collected from the Annual Reports of Axis Bank, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank and different books, journal, magazines, and data collected from various banks websites. Tools Applied In this study various tools: Financial Tools Ratio Analysis and Statistical Tools (i.e.) Mean and ANOVA test have been used for data analysis. MEAN = Sum of variable/n Standard Deviation (SD) = X2/N-( X/N) Coefficient of Variation (COV) = SD/MEAN* 100 Hypothesis An ANOVA is statistical hypothesis in which the sampling distribution of test statistic when null hypotheses is true. Null hypotheses have been set and adopted for the analysis of data. The null hypotheses are represented by H 0. It is a negative statement which avoids personal bias of investigator during data collection as well as the time of drawing conclusion. 95
3 IV. LIMITATION OF THE STUDY 1. The study is related to a period of 5 years. 2. As the data are only secondary i.e. they are collected from the published annual reports. 3. Z Scores and the related Financial Ratios have been taken for the study. REVIEW OF LITERATURE Altman (1968) conducted the first study to examine the use of financial ratio analysis as a tool to predict corporate bankruptcy by using discriminate analysis. Altman model has a high accuracy of the model of 90% in correctly classifying the bankrupt firms and 80% accurate in predicting the next financial difficulties. However, the use of Z-score models in banking had shown inaccuracies up to 70% or in other words the model Z-score early it is not accurate in predicting the likelihood of financial distress in the banking industry. Therefore Altman then revised the initial model and introduce Altman's four-variance model (Altman, 2000). The importance of the Z score has been highlighted by a number of studies. A study conducted by Price water Coopers (2002) on 1,200 publicly owned manufacturing companies (data from 1998 to 2001) concluded that the Z-score remains a viable measure of financial distress. It has been used to predict viability in a number of sectors like telecommunications (Permatasari, 2006), wood industry (Muhammad, 2008), pharmaceuticals (Ambarsari, (2009), etc. In all these situations, it was found that the respective industries were in distress financial situation, which was later proved correct. The studies thus proved that Altman model of Z-score would provide accurate prediction of financial distress. Makkar and Singh (2012) assessed the level of solvency in commercial banks in India in the period of 2006/ /2011 by using Bankometer developed under IMF guidance on the bank rating, because it was assumed that it would be better to use traditional way by implementing CAMEL ratios and CLSA-stress test. The results explained that by applying Bankometer model, it can provide assessment of the accurate ability of the bank, so it is advisable for internal management to use Bankometer model in assessing the health of banks in India. Majumder and Rahman (2011) used financial ratios and Prof. Altman s MDA Model, the Z-score Model for financial analysis of selected pharmaceutical companies in Bangladesh. They observed from the study that the profitability, liquidity and solvency position of the selected pharmaceuticals are not in sound position and it was also observed that most of the selected pharmaceuticals companies have a lower level position of bankruptcy. Mishra et., al. (2013) studied the stability of Indian banking sector. The study applied Value at Risk measures, Granger s Causality test and Regression analysis. The results reveal the symptoms of moderate rise in instability in the banking sector in coming periods due to the instability in the asset quality. Leading Commercial Banks Axis Bank Ltd Axis Bank Ltd is the third largest Indian private-sector bank. Since its inception Axis Bank has been one of the leading Private Sector Indian Banks. Presently it has 3300 branches, 13,003 ATMs, and nine international offices. The bank employs over 50,000 people and had a market capitalization of trillion (US$16 billion) (as on March 31, 2016). It offers the entire spectrum of financial services large and mid-size corporate, SME, and retail businesses. 96
4 AXIS BANK LTD Figures in Rs crore Working Capital 11, , , , , Total Assets 1,17, ,45, ,55, ,84, ,90, X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets * X Net Profit for the year 9, , , , , Total Assets 1,17, ,45, ,55, ,84, ,90, X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets * X Profit Before Tax 6, , , , , Total Assets 1,17, ,45, ,55, ,84, ,90, X3 = Profit Before Tax / Total Assets * X MV of Equity 1,52, ,48, ,45, ,95, ,75, BV of Debt 2,54, ,96, ,33, ,06, ,62, X4 = Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Debt * X Total Revenue 27, , , , , Total Assets 1,17, ,45, ,55, ,84, ,90, X5 = Revenue / Total Assets * X Z SCORE ZONES DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS X1: Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA): This ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. X1 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X1 score after multiplying with 1.2 is in 2016 X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: ratio measures the leverage of a firm. X2 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X2 score after multiplying with 1.2 is in 2016 X3: Profit Before Taxes/Total Assets (PBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm s assets. X3 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X3 score after multiplying with 3.3 is in 2016 X4: Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MV EQUITY /TL): Capital-turnover ratio is a financial ratio illustrating the relation between Marker Value of Equity and Book Value of Debt. X4 has declined from in 2012 to in The Weighted X4 score after multiplying with 0.6 is in 2016 X5: Revenue/Total Assets (R/TA): This ratio measures the Asset Turnover of a firm. X5 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X5 score after multiplying with 1 is in 2016 Z Score of Axis bank was in 2012 which increased to in The period shows less liquidity growth and Distress position of Axis Bank. State Bank of India State Bank of India (SBI) is an Indian multinational, public sector banking and financial services company. It is a governmentowned corporation with its headquarters in Mumbai, Maharashtra. The bank traces its ancestry to British India, through the Imperial Bank of India, to the founding, in 1806, of the Bank of Calcutta, making it the oldest commercial bank in the Indian subcontinent. Bank of Madras merged into the other two "presidency banks" in British India, Bank of Calcutta and Bank of Bombay, to form the Imperial Bank of India, which in turn became the State Bank of India in As of , it had assets of trillion (US$460 billion) and more than 14,000 branches, including 191 foreign offices spread across 36 countries, making it the largest banking and financial services company in India by assets. 97
5 SATE BANK OF INDIA Figures in Rs crore Working Capital 50, , , , ,07, Total Assets 6,81, ,57, ,36, ,28, ,24, X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets * X Net Profit for the year 16, , , , , Total Assets 6,81, ,57, ,36, ,28, ,24, X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets * X Profit Before Tax 24, , , , , Total Assets 6,81, ,57, ,36, ,28, ,24, X3 = Profit Before Tax / Total Assets * X MV of Equity 1,52, ,48, ,45, ,95, ,75, BV of Debt 2,54, ,96, ,33, ,06, ,62, X4 = Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Debt * X Total Revenue 1,76, ,00, ,26, ,57, ,00, Total Assets 6,81, ,57, ,36, ,28, ,24, X5 = Revenue / Total Assets * X Z SCORE ZONES DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS X1: Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA): This ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. X1 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X1 score after multiplying with 1.2 is in 2016 X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: ratio measures the leverage of a firm. X2 has declined from in 2012 to in The Weighted X2 score after multiplying with 1.2 is in 2016 X3: Profit Before Taxes/Total Assets (PBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm s assets. X3 has decreased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X3 score after multiplying with 3.3 is in 2016 X4: Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MV EQUITY /TL): Capital-turnover ratio is a financial ratio illustrating the relation between Marker Value of Equity and Book Value of Debt. X4 has declined from in 2012 to in The Weighted X4 score after multiplying with 0.6 is in 2016 X5: Revenue/Total Assets (R/TA): This ratio measures the Asset Turnover of a firm. X5 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X5 score after multiplying with 1 is in 2016 Z Score of SBI was in 2012 which declined to in The period shows less liquidity growth and Distress position of SBI. ICICI Bank ICICI Bank (Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India) is an Indian multinational banking and financial services company headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, with its registered office in Vadodara. It is the largest bank in India in terms of assets and third in term of market capitalisation. It offers a wide range of banking products and financial services for 98
6 corporate and retail customers through a variety of delivery channels and specialised subsidiaries in the areas of investment banking, life, non-life insurance, venture capital and asset management. The bank has a network of 4,450 branches and 14,404 ATMs in India, and has a presence in 19 countries including India. ICICI BANK Figures in Rs crore Working Capital -31, , , , , Total Assets 3,33, ,51, ,68, ,96, ,35, X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets * X Net Profit for the year 11, , , , , Total Assets 3,33, ,51, ,68, ,96, ,35, X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets * X Profit Before Tax 12, , , , , Total Assets 3,33, ,51, ,68, ,96, ,35, X3 = Profit Before Tax / Total Assets * X MV of Equity 1,02, ,15, ,18, ,81, ,50, BV of Debt 4,43, ,87, ,43, ,97, ,71, X4 = Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Debt * X Total Revenue 66, , , , ,01, Total Assets 3,33, ,51, ,68, ,96, ,35, X5 = Revenue / Total Assets * X Z SCORE ZONES DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS X1: Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA): This ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. X1 of ICICI bank has been negative over the years 2012 to X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: ratio measures the leverage of a firm. X2 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X2 score after multiplying with 1.2 is in 2016 X3: Profit Before Taxes/Total Assets (PBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm s assets. X3 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X3 score after multiplying with 3.3 is in 2016 X4: Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MV EQUITY /TL): Capital-turnover ratio is a financial ratio illustrating the relation between Marker Value of Equity and Book Value of Debt. X4 has declined from in 2012 to in The Weighted X4 score after multiplying with 0.6 is in 2016 X5: Revenue/Total Assets (R/TA): This ratio measures the Asset Turnover of a firm. X5 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X5 score after multiplying with 1 is in 2016 Z Score of ICICI Bank was in 2012 which increased to in The period shows less liquidity growth and Distress position of ICICI Bank. 99
7 HDFC Bank Limited HDFC Bank Limited, headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra is the second largest Indian private-sector bank. It has 90,421 employees and has a presence in Bahrain, Hong Kong and Dubai. HDFC Bank is India s second-largest private sector lender by assets. As of December 31, 2016, the Bank s distribution network was at 4,555 branches and 12,087 ATMs across 2,597 cities. HDFC BANK Figures in Rs crore Working Capital 5, , , , , Total Assets 1,45, ,64, ,93, ,29, ,49, X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets * X Net Profit for the year 11, , , , , Total Assets 1,45, ,64, ,93, ,29, ,49, X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets * X Profit Before Tax 7, , , , , Total Assets 1,45, ,64, ,93, ,29, ,49, X3 = Profit Before Tax / Total Assets * X MV of Equity 1,13, ,41, ,54, ,27, ,59, BV of Debt 2,72, ,35, ,16, ,09, ,17, X4 = Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Debt * X Total Revenue 34, , , , , Total Assets 1,45, ,64, ,93, ,29, ,49, X5 = Revenue / Total Assets * X Z SCORE ZONES DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS DISTRESS X1: Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA): This ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. X1 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X1 score after multiplying with 1.2 is in 2016 X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: ratio measures the leverage of a firm. X2 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X2 score after multiplying with 1.2 is in 2016 X3: Profit Before Taxes/Total Assets (PBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm s assets. X3 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X3 score after multiplying with 3.3 is in 2016 X4: Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MV EQUITY /TL): Capital-turnover ratio is a financial ratio illustrating the relation between Marker Value of Equity and Book Value of Debt. X4 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X4 score after multiplying with 0.6 is in 2016 X5: Revenue/Total Assets (R/TA): This ratio measures the Asset Turnover of a firm. X5 has increased from in 2012 to in The Weighted X5 score after multiplying with 1 is in 2016 Z Score of HDFC Bank was in 2012 which increased to in The period shows less liquidity growth and Distress position of HDFC Bank. 100
8 SELECTED COMMERCIAL BANKS AXIS SBI ICICI HDFC The above chart shows the Z scores of the 4 Top Commercial Indian Banks. Z Score of Axis bank was in 2012 which increased to in Z Score of SBI was in 2012 which declined to in Z Score of ICICI Bank was in 2012 which increased to in Z Score of HDFC Bank was in 2012 which increased to in The period shows less liquidity growth and Distress position for all Banks. Hypothesis: H0: µ1=µ2=µ3=µ4 (There is no significant relationship between the Z Scores of the above Banks) H1: µ1 µ2 µ3 µ4 (There is significant relationship between Z Scores of the above Banks) ANOVA: Single Factor Groups Count Sum Average Variance AXIS SBI ICICI HDFC ANOVA: VARIATION Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit Between Groups E Within Groups Total
9 The above analysis shows that the F value ( ) of the four leading Commercial Banks are more than F Critical value of , therefore null hypothesis is rejected. Therefore it is concluded that there is significant relationship between the Z Scores of the above banks. CONCLUSION The Indian Banking Sector is mainly dominated by the Public Sector Banks. Globalization has encouraged multinationals and foreign banks to set up their business unit in India. This paper seeks to assess the analytical quality of ratio analysis. It has been suggested that traditional ratio analysis is no longer an important analytical technique in the academic environment due to the relatively unsophisticated manner in which it has been presented. In order to assess its potential rigorously, a set of financial ratios was combined in a discriminate analysis approach to the problem of bankruptcy prediction. The results depicted that all the banks are in the stress zone. The study indicated that the selected Commercial Banks are different in terms of total assets, interest spread, and net worth ratio and efficiency factors. Differences exist in their X1: Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA), X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets, X3: Profit Before Taxes/Total Assets (PBIT/TA), X4: Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MV EQUITY /TL) & X5: Revenue/Total Assets (R/TA) There is significant relationship between the Z Scores of the above banks. REFERENCES 1. Altman, E. I. (1968), Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy, The Journal of Finance 2. Chieng Jasmine Rose, Verifying the Validity of Altman s Z Score as a Predictor of Bank Failures in the Case of the Euro zone 3. Pradhan Roli, Z Score Estimation for Indian Banking Sector 4. Prof. Sajjan Rohini, Predicting Bankruptcy of Selected Firms By Applying Altman s Z-Score Model 5. Lakshan, A. M. I., & Wijekoon, W. M. H. N. (2013), The use of Financial Ratios in Predicting Corporate Failure in Sri Lanka 6. Niresh & Pratheepan, The Application of Altman s Z-Score Model in Predicting Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Trading Sector in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Business and Management 102
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