CA Immo Buy (old: Accumulate)

Transcription

1 CA Immo Buy (old: Accumulate) 29 May 15 Price (Euro) weeks range / Key Data ISIN AT Reuters CAIV.VI Bloomberg CAI AV Reporting standard IFRS Market Cap (Euro million) 1,602 Number of shares (million) 98.8 Free Float 74% Free Float Market Cap (Euro million) 1,185 CAGR pre-tax profit ('13 -'16e) 16.5% Target: (unchanged) Multiples e 2016e 2017e Market Cap/ Total revenues PE-Ratio Dividend Yield 2.8% 3.1% 3.7% 3.7% Price-to-Book-Ratio P/ NAV-ratio Key Data per share (Euro) e 2016e 2017e Earnings per share (EPS) Dividend per share (DPS) Book Value per Share (BVPS) NAV per share Financial Data (Euro '000) e 2016e 2017e Total revenues incl net disposal gains 234, , , ,525 Rental income 145, , , ,862 Admin expenses -44,386-37,551-36,850-34,255 EBITDA profit (cash-driven) 149, , , ,630 Net result from revaluations -4,210 25,040 27,650 22,546 Operating profit (EBIT) 142, , , ,051 Net financial result -58,346-62,489-63,318-66,171 Pre-tax profit (EBT) 84, , , ,880 Taxation -13,773-29,112-34,515-31,582 Net profit after minorities 70,798 83,202 98, ,298 Shareholders' equity (Euro million) 1,952 1,990 2,040 2,083 Property assets let (Euro million) 2,093 1,781 1,751 1,725 Property assets under development RoE (pre-tax) 4.3% 5.6% 6.5% 6.4% RoE (after tax) 3.7% 4.2% 4.9% 5.0% Equity ratio 53.2% 55.2% 57.2% 59.2% Main Shareholder O1 Group Limited 26% Financial calendar 2Q 2015 report 26 August Q 2015 report 26 November 2015 Analyst Internet Dipl.-Kfm. Stefan Scharff, CREA scharff@src-research.de A decent 1Q leads to a higher Euro 80m FFO guidance for the full year Strategy in place to expand the superior and cash producing office portfolio Upgrade to Buy Yesterday, on 28 May, CA Immo, a leading investor and developer of superior office properties in Central Europe, released its 1Q 2015 report and hosted a conference call to give more insights into numbers and strategy. The company delivered a somewhat lower top-line as rental income went down after the sale of Warsaw-based Lipowy Office Park in 1Q Net rental income declined by 6% from Euro 33m to Euro 31m. The EBIT consecutively also declined from Euro 38m to Euro 25m. Keep in mind, that previous year s first quarter was flattered by an OEVAG loan buyback with a positive impact of almost Euro 4m and this year s EBIT was slightly burdened from a negative Euro -5m revaluation result and a JV result of only Euro 3m, after Euro 8m in the year before, as CA Immo successfully reduced the volume of JV properties in its portfolio. With regards to the bottom line and the very important recurring FFO I result the picture looks much better. With a tremendous decline in financing costs which shrunk 33% from Euro 22m to Euro 15m the pre-tax profit stepped up to Euro 18m (+2%). With a positive taxation stemming from deferred taxes (Euro +1m, after -4m in 1Q 14), net profit after minorities jumped 39% from Euro 13.9m to Euro 19.3m. The FFO I result which indicates the recurring ability for generating cash profits developed very well and also jumped 36% from Euro 16m to almost Euro 22m. CA Immo gave a Euro 80m FFO I target for 2015 which is 14% above the Euro 70m level of In the context of the new strategic agenda the company is strongly geared to boost its profitable office portfolio by the completion of several German and Polish developments and some additional selective asset purchases to boost the FFO to more than Euro 100m from 2017 on. CA Immo also lifted the target for future dividend payments from 2.0% of NAV to 2.5% of NAV and gave a detailed target for a 2015 dividend payment of 50 Cents which would be a steep +11% hike compared to the 45 Cents for In our opinion, CA Immo is on the right way with the new strategic program for the next 3 years to 1) conclude the sale of non-core assets and 2) growing the high-quality portfolio by own German developments and bringing down the portion of CEE JVs 3) further reduce the long-term financing costs. The CA Immo share lost almost 7% in the last two months which makes an entry more attractive. We keep our target price of Euro as the company transformation to a stable cash generator is well under way. We lift our rating from Accumulate to Buy after the decline in share price.

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3 Company transformation via the strategic agenda to trim the company even more towards a cash generator and high dividend payer with a stable and sustainable high quality office portfolio Source: Company data 3 3 SRC Equity Research

4 with Europolis from 1Q 2011 on Assets held in JVs were shown in EBIT "as result from investments in JVs" from 1Q 2014 on 31/12 IFRS ('000) e 2015e 2016e 2017e CAGR '13 - '16e Rental income 176, , , , , , , , , % Proceeds from property sale (Trading Portfolio) 78, , , , , , , , ,200.0 Expenses from property disposal (Trading Portfolio) -68, , , , , , , , ,184.0 Subtotal Trading Portfolio 9, , , , , , , , ,016.0 sale margin (Trading Portfolio) 12.6% 26.0% 27.8% 61.7% 41.9% 26.3% 21.0% 19.2% 22.1% Proceeds from property sale (Hold Portfolio) 357, , , , , , , , ,544.0 Expenses from property disposal (Hold Portfolio) -348, , , , , , , , ,788.0 Result from property sales (Hold Portfolio) 9, , , , , , , , ,756.0 sale margin (Hold Portfolio) 2.6% 1.7% 15.2% 13.3% 7.1% 15.3% 15.2% 15.1% 17.0% Operating costs passed on to tenants 29, , , , , , , , ,137.0 Revenues from construction 4, , , Hotel operations (net) and income from services , , , , ,754.0 Total revenues including the net gains from disposals 229, , , , , , , , , % Operating expenses -36, , , , , , , , ,588.0 Other expenses directly related to Hold-Portfolio -19, , , , , , , , ,212.0 Expenses for construction , , , ,050.0 Admin expenses -51, , , , , , , , ,255.0 Own works capitalised 12, , Other operating income 8, , , , , , , , ,210.0 EBITDA-profit (cash-driven operating profit) 141, , , , , , , , , % Gains from Fair Value Adjustments (IAS 40) 92, , , , , , , , ,000.0 Losses from Fair Value Adjustments (IAS 40) -221, , , , , , , , ,454.0 Net result from Revaluations (IAS 40) -129, , , , , , , , ,546.0 n.a. Depreciation and amortisation of long-term assets -1, , , , , , , , ,500.0 Depreciation of properties of Trading-Portfolio -8, , , , Result from investments in joint ventures , , , ,875.0 Operating Profit (EBIT) 3, , , , , , , , , % Net financial result -137, , , , , , , , ,171.0 Pre-tax profit (EBT) -134, , , , , , , , , % taxes on income , , , , , , , ,582.0 tax-rate 0.1% 42.2% 36.8% 33.0% 39.7% 16.3% 25.9% 25.9% 23.6% minorities 57, , , , , Net Profit after minorities -76, , , , , , , , , % number of shares ('000) 87, , , , , , , , ,808.3 Earnings per share (Euro) % Dividends per share (Euro) Book Value per share (Euro) % NAV per share (Euro) NNNAV per share (Euro) % Key Data Shareholders' Equity 1,559, ,659, ,809, ,815, ,865, ,951, ,990, ,039, ,082, % Property assets let (only fully owned from 2014 on) 2,409,589 2,716,211 4,183,202 4,391,378 3,108,487 2,055,110 1,781,205 1,750,543 1,725,452 thereof Germany ('000) 1, , , , thereof Austria ('000) thereof CEE and SEE ('000) , , , Gross yield property assets let 6.5% 5.8% 6.3% 6.4% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% Vacancy rate property assets let 5.9% 10.0% 12.6% 13.3% 11.6% 13.5% 12.8% 11.2% 10.5% Property assets under development 962, , , , , , , , , % RoE (pre-tax) neg. 4.6% 5.9% 4.0% 4.5% 4.3% 5.6% 6.5% 6.4% RoE (after tax) neg. 2.7% 3.6% 3.0% 2.6% 3.7% 4.2% 4.9% 5.0% Total balance sheet sum 4,310, ,379, ,916, ,888, ,910, ,668, ,602, ,566, ,514, % Equity ratio 36.2% 37.9% 30.6% 30.8% 38.0% 53.2% 55.3% 57.2% 59.3% 14.6% Euro million Development of EBITDA-cash profits, revaluations and net profits e e 2016e EBITDA-profit (cash-driven) net revaluations net profit 4 4 SRC Equity Research

5 SRC Research - The Specialist for Financial and Real Estate Stocks - SRC - Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH Klingerstr. 23 D Frankfurt Germany Fon: +49 (0)69/ Mail: scharff@src-research.de Internet: Rating Chronicle Date Rating former share price former target CA Immo March 23, 2015 Accumulate CA Immo March 18, 2015 Accumulate CA Immo February 13, 2015 Accumulate CA Immo November 27, 2014 Accumulate CA Immo August 27, 2014 Accumulate CA Immo June 3, 2014 Buy CA Immo March 21, 2014 Buy CA Immo January 6, 2014 Buy CA Immo November 27, 2013 Buy CA Immo October 15, 2013 Buy CA Immo August 29, 2013 Buy Please note: The CA Immo share price mentioned in this report is from 28 May CA Immo mandated SRC Research for covering the CA Immo share. Disclaimer 2015: This equity research report is published by: SRC-Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH, Klingerstr. 23, D Frankfurt, Germany (short name: SRC Research). All rights reserved. Although we feel sure that all information in this SRC report originates from carefully selected sources with high credibility, we cannot give any guarantee for accuracy, trueness and completeness. All opinions quoted in this report give the current judgement of the author which is not necessarily the same opinion as SRC- Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH or another staff member. All the opinions and assessment made in this report may be changed without prior notice. Within the scope of German regulative framework the author and SRC-Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH do not assume any liability for this document or its content being used. This report is solely for information purposes and does not constitute a request or an invitation or a recommendation to buy or sell any stock that is mentioned here. Private clients should obtain personal advice at their bank or investment house and should keep in mind that prices and dividends of equities can rise and fall and that nobody can give a guarantee of the future development of equities. The author of this report and the SRC-Scharff Research und Consulting GmbH commit themselves on a unsolicited basis to having no long or short-positions in equities or derivatives related to equities mentioned in this report. Reproduction, distribution or publishing this report and its content as a whole or in parts is only allowed with approval of SRC management written form. With acceptance of this document you agree with all regulations mentioned here and all general terms and conditions you will find at anytime at our website SRC Equity Research