PROPERTY MARKETS The FNB August House Price Index

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1 PROPERTY MARKETS The FNB August House Price Index - Slowing house price inflation as should be expected, but Residential Market Weakness is not fully reflected in house price trends 4 September JOHN LOOS: FNB HOME LOANS PROPERTY STRATEGIST John.loos@fnb.co.za The information in this publication is derived from sources which are regarded as accurate and reliable, is of a general nature only, does not constitute advice and may not be applicable to all circumstances. Detailed advice should be obtained in individual cases. No responsibility for any error, omission or loss sustained by any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of this publication is accepted by Firstrand Group Limited and / or the authors of the material. Directors: GT Ferreira (Chairman), SE Nxasana, VW Bartlett, JP Burger, LL Dippenaar, DM Falck, PM Goss, PK Harris (CEO), WR Jardine, EG Matenge-Sebesho, RK Store, BJ van der Ross, RA Williams. Company Secretary: BW Unser. First National Bank a division of FirstRand Bank Limited. An Authorised Financial Services provider. Reg No. 1929/001225/06 SUMMARY The newly-developed FNB House Price Index recorded 2.3% year-on-year price inflation in August, compared with 3. in July, thereby continuing its declining inflation trend. However, on a month-on-month basis, price deflation has already been in progress for 6 consecutive months since March of this year, recording -0.3% in August. In real terms, adjusting the index for inflation using the CPI, year-on-year price deflation amounted to -8.8% in August. The drivers of the weakening house price performance stretch far beyond just interest rate hikes. A rising household debt-todisposable income ratio has contributed, along with rising interest rates, to rising debt service costs, while surging consumer inflation has been eating into disposable income. On top of this, post-polokwane (ANC leadership change) minority group jitters, the January Eskom crisis and the deteriorating Zimbabwe situation may have conspired to drive emigration rates higher as sentiment goes through a dip. We have also calculated a median price index for comparison purposes. After a period in which the median price inflation rate was below that of the average price inflation rate (from April 2006 to June ), a swing back to the median exceeding the average price inflation rate could signal the end of a period of shifting activity towards the lower priced end, and I believe that it is no longer clear that the lower priced end is outperforming the higher end as was the case up until recently. Important to understand is that house price trends depicted in the indices do not show the full extent of residential market weakness. Sellers are somewhat inflexible when it comes to dropping their asking price. Some would stay out of the market during these weak times, while others hold on longer to obtain their price, often incurring higher holding costs. Simultaneously, new development completions are plummeting, also causing supply of stock in the market to adjust downward. Supply therefore partially adjusts downward to weakening demand, preventing house prices from falling to the extent that transaction volumes do. While month-on-month house price deflation is already here, year-on-year price deflation is expected to arrive soon. However, no freefall is anticipated. Rather, around - year-on-year deflation is expected at the worst part of the price cycle in the first half of 2009, before price inflation resumes late next year on the back of recovering economic growth and declining interest rates.

2 THE FNB HOUSE PRICE INDEX YEAR-ON-YEAR INFLATION SLOWDOWN PICKING UP SPEED, BUT FREEFALL NOT EXPECTED The newly-developed FNB House Price Index shows August house price inflation to the tune of 2.3% year-on-year, compared with 3. in July. This continues the trend of steady de-celeration in year-on-year price increases since early this year, while on a month-on-month basis the index has been showing price deflation since March of this year. The August year-on-year inflation rate is the lowest since January FNB Average House Price Inflation 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% The FNB House Price Index is constructed* using the average value of housing transactions financed by FNB. In order to eliminate outliers from the data sample, transaction values must BE above 70% of FNB Valuations Division s valuation of the property but below 130%, while purchase prices recorded as above R10m and below R20,000 are excluded. The time series generated is then smoothed using a Hodrick-Prescott smoothing function. *data compiled by Ewald Kellerman, FNB Home Loans - -1% month-on-month % change (Right axis) REAL HOUSE PRICE DEFLATION HAS BEEN IN PROGRESS FOR THE PAST YEAR-AND-A-HALF 30% 20% Nominal vs Real House Price Inflation In order to obtain an idea of house price trends in real terms, the FNB House Price Index has been deflated with the consumer price index. In year-on-year terms, July saw an 8.8% real price decline, which was the 18 th consecutive month of year-on-year real price decline starting back in February % 0% -10% Real average house price (deflated with CPI) - year-on-year % change DRIVERS OF THE DETERIORATING PERFORMANCE IN HOUSE PRICES The list of negatives for the housing market has gone far past merely including rising interest rates. It has been the combination of rising interest rates and a rising household sector debt-to-disposable income ratio that has driven up debt servicing costs relative to household sector disposable income (debt service ratio). In tandem with rising debt servicing costs, rising consumer inflation, notably in the areas of food and transport costs, has been eating into disposable income in recent years, while disposable income growth may also be suffering at the hands of a slowing economy which hampers job creation as well as the discretionary portion of employee remuneration. If the above was not enough, a few key sentiment dampeners have seen an apparent surge in emigration, further hampering residential demand. Minority group concerns following a change in ANC leadership at Polokwane may have played a role, as could the Eskom crisis that played out in January, and don t underestimate the Zimbabwean Crisis influence.

3 THE MEDIAN VS MEAN (AVERAGE) PRICE COMPARISON MAY REFLECT THE LOWER END OF THE MARKET RUNNING OUT OF STEAM RELATIVE TO THE HIGHER END Periodically, the debate arises as to whether the median price or the average price is a better indicator of property price trends and average levels (though one must not ignore methods such as the repeat sales index). We have calculated a median price from the same data set in order to compare with the average price. While there is some difference, both tell a not too dissimilar a story. What is noticeable though is that for much of the period July 2001 to end-2005 the median price inflation rate was above that of the mean (average), while this situation reversed in 2006 and When the median inflates above the average, it can point towards an activity shift towards the higher priced end of the market, a shift which can tend to inflate the median price at a more rapid rate than the average, whereas a shift in activity towards the lower priced end can see the median inflating at a lower rate than the average ( ). These 2 periods of activity shift, first to the FNB Average vs Median House Price Index higher end and then later back to the lower 3 end are indeed believed to have taken place during the current decade. The demand shift to the higher end of the market during the initial 2 part of the property boom was triggered by rapid interest rate cuts. Prior to upward price adjustments, lower interest rates suddenly 1 made it possible for credit buyers to afford higher priced houses than had previously been the case, and understandably many climbed in. However, once the prices at the higher end had adjusted sharply upwards, driven by the surge in demand, the upward demand shift - subsided and many buyers may have even started to look towards the lower end for better Median House Price Index - year-on-year % change value for money. This year, the gap in inflation rates between the median and mean has first narrowed, and then the median inflation rate has overtaken the average price inflation rate, which suggests that major demand shifts up or down the price ladder may be over for now, and that the superior performance of the lower end is all but over. While rising interest rates may have been encouraging a portion of home buyers to look at cheaper market segments, against that a portion of lower income groups may be temporarily dropping out of the market altogether due to their financial strain, thereby offsetting any demand gains that the lower end may be receiving due to the downward shift. Lower income groups are believed to be experiencing greater financial strain than their higher income counterparts due to being harder hit by high food and transport cost inflation (lower income groups spend a higher portion of their income on such items) in recent times. Therefore, the recent relatively stable performance of the median price inflation rate in recent month is probably not yet an indication of the market deterioration coming to an end, but rather an indication that the activity levels of the higher end are improving in relative terms compared to the lower end causing a relative upward shift in activity (note that in absolute terms higher and lower end activity levels have probably still been declining in recent months). The average price index s declining inflation trend is probably a better indicator of the overall market and price trend, i.e. still weaker. However, there may be some use in comparing the trends of mean and median indices compiled from the same data set, because divergences between the two may prove insightful in terms of relative shifts in activity up and down the price ladder. IN REALITY, BOTH THE AVERAGE AND MEDIAN PRICE INDEX VALUES ARE OVER-ESTIMATES OF THE ACTUAL AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA As at August, the average price of a house transacted according to FNB s sample of the market was R680,541 while the median price was R548,874. In reality, though, both measures are over-estimates of what the average house value in South Africa actually is. This is because higher income households are generally more mobile than low income ones, which means that a greater percentage of total stock gets traded in middle-to-upper income areas as opposed to, for example, former black townships. Given that both of the above indices are based on properties transacted, it stands to reason that the middle-to-upper income end will have a significantly higher weighting in the indices. In reality, therefore, if we could value every existing property down to RDP housing regardless of whether it gets transacted, the average and median values would be significantly lower. Therefore, while such house price indices are useful from a trend analysis point of view, they are of limited value in calculating average values for the country, as they only incorporate houses that get transacted.

4 THE RATE OF DETERIORATION IN PRICE PERFORMANCE DOESN T TELL THE FULL STORY OF MARKET WEAKNESS, AS INCREASING TIME OF HOUSES ON THE MARKET IMPLIES RISING HOLDING COSTS IN MANY INSTANCES At present, the rate of deflation month on month would appear fairly harmless, but it is fair to state that the house price index probably doesn t tell the full story of how weak the residential property market currently is. The reasons for this are threefold. Firstly, the truth is that contrary to popular belief, the overwhelming majority of households are not in financial trouble and are thus not forced to sell for financial reasons at the current time. Given the weak levels of demand in these times of high inflation and interest rates, some would opt to stay out of the market for the time being. Supply of stock to the market is thus curbed. Secondly, those sellers who are in the market tend to hold out longer, on average, before accepting an offer as they wait for their asking price. This is reflected in FNB s Property Barometer, which shows that the average time that a property is on the market has risen to near to 4 months, significantly longer than the average time of around 5 weeks of a few years ago. Waiting longer to obtain one s asking price is Average time that a property is on the market not always a clever move. Holding costs increase in many instances, while sellers often 14 don t get their asking price even after a longer wait. 8 of sellers are currently believed not 12 to be getting their asking price according to FNB s Property Barometer. Nevertheless, 10 rightly or wrongly people hold on for longer, 8 and this helps to restrict the fall of house prices in adverse times. 6 Thirdly, the total level of residential stock is 4 currently being contained by a sharp fall in 2 residential building activity, which in turn is Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1- driven by weak developer pricing power that is being hampered by poor demand and rising Weeks and Days on the market building costs. The FNB Residential Building Cost Index continues to inflate, albeit not in the extreme at present. By June, the year-on-year FNB Residential Building Cost Index was still running at 7.3% despite very weak residential demand, while the steady rise in the inflation rate of the Producer Price Index for building materials to 13.2% year-on-year in July suggests that overall building cost inflation rates could rise in the second half of. % Therefore, one should generally expect that fluctuations in residential activity will be significantly more volatile than shifts in house prices, New mortgage loan growth vs Average House Price Inflation because supply of stock on the market adjusts partially to demand. Indicators reflecting changes in activity levels are thus perhaps a better indicator of the pain and suffering 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% being experienced by many market players. One such activity indicator is the growth in value of new mortgage loans and re-advances granted, a good indicator of residential demand and activity trends. Whereas the yearon-year growth in value of new loans and readvances peaked at around 80% at a stage in 2004, compared to a more modest 34.3% in house price inflation in a later month of the same year, by March, new mortgages growth -30% had reached negative territory to the tune of New mortgage loans and re-advances granted - year-on-year % change -2, while house prices still showed some modest year-on-year inflation.

5 OUTLOOK Some early signs of encouragement for the residential market have been witnessed recently after a lengthy spell of bad news. After reaching near to USD150/barrel, Brent crude currently hovers at near to USD110/barrel, and this has led to the first domestic petrol price cuts in some time. The oil price decline has been accompanied by some decline in rampant global food price inflation, which is important in moderating domestic food price inflation rates. We know that the SARB put rate hiking on hold at the most recent August interest rate meeting, and such moderations in key global commodity prices may encourage it to continues the sideways movement in interest rates for a considerable period. However, we re not out of the woods yet, as CPIX inflation has yet to show to us that it has peaked (peak anticipated around September), while global oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical issues as well as weather patterns in key production areas such as the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, interest rate reductions are probably some way off, only anticipated to commence in the second quarter of next year. As such, it is anticipated that the anticipated interest rate and economic growth improvements will not arrive in time to prevent a brief period of year-on-year price deflation late in (following on the month-on-month deflation already taking place). However, it is expected that the magnitude of the deflation rate will be limited, and should not go beyond - at a stage in the first half of It is important to bear in mind the reality that prices have some resistance to deflating due to the tendency of some households to incur increased holding costs as they wait longer for their price, and this means that house price trends won t fully reflect the extent of residential property market weakness. As for the factors having a negative impact on sentiment, it is expected that post-polokwane jitters will subside over time, as minority groups normally do become more comfortable with political leadership changes as time passes, while Eskom appears to have already made strides in normalising the electricity supply following the January crisis. As 2010 draws nearer, it is believed that the football event and the various happenings surrounding it will contribute to a more positive sentiment in the country. SUMMARY TABLE 2006 average 2007 average 1 st Quarter 2 nd Quarter July August Average House Price (Rand) 631, , , , , ,581 Year-on-year percentage change Month-on-month percentage change Median House Price (Rand) 513, , , , , ,667 Year-on-year percentage change Gauteng Avg. House Price (Rand) 655, , , , Year-on-year percentage change Western Cape Avg. House Price (Rand) 760, , , , Year-on-year percentage change KZN Avg. House Price 621, , , , Year-on-year percentage change

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