Making the world more predictable

Transcription

1 Making the world more predictable

2 Forwards & Futures Brief Overview Hedge vs. price prediction Wikipedia - A futures contract is a legal agreement, made on the trading floor of a futures exchange, to buy or sell a particular commodity at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future.!2

3 Bitcoin Futures 12/1 Legitmacy to bitcoin but allows significant downward pressure!3

4 Wisdom of the Crowd Collective opinion of a large enough group of individuals is better than that of a single expert Economic incentive to the community to share valuable knowledge Economic disincentive to try to manipulate the outcome of the results!4

5 Prediction Markets Example Combining people s opinions into the probabilities of a future event Which token will appreciate most from 4/10 to 5/10? Stock Market DPY EOS OMG Stocks % adds to 1.00 Stock Prices!5

6 Prediction Markets Detail Buying DPY costs.505 & will return 1 Will South Korea ban crypto exchanges? Stock Market Q1 18 After Q1 18 After 2018/ Never Stocks Bid:. 495 Ask:. 505 Bid:. 351 Ask:. 352 Bid:. 148 Ask:. 149 Stock Prices!6

7 Why has CFTC governed Prediction Markets? Can replicate futures What will bitcoin price be on 5/10/18? Stock Market < >9500 Stocks % adds to 1.00 Stock Prices!7

8 Prediction Market Lifecycle 3 Pricing & Trading 2 Define the outcomes 4 Liquidation & Delivery 1 Create Event DPY Toke n 5 Social/Comments!8

9 Increasingly confusing World Lightning pace of technology combined with the increasing number of channels to receive information is creating vast complexity.!9 How can the layman predict the future?

10 Compared to Tradition al Prediction Markets Expert Panel Polls } SAMPLING Large active community Small but only experts Random Sampling; Size depends } MOTIVATION Economic returns Reputation None } FREQUENCY Continuous Once; periodic Once } WEIGHT Depends on # shares purchased Uncertain; mostly equal Equal } ACCURACY High Average Average!10

11 Forecasting Big & Small Predicting large macroeconomic metrics effecting huge groups of people: How much will the Nasdaq increase/ decrease in 2018? Also applying to micro communities for events that are less impactful: Will Jack and Mary be engaged by summer (June 1 st )?!11

12 Delphy is a Platform Predicting the outcome of all events Politics, Hollywood, Sports, Finance, etc.!12

13 01 Prediction Markets are not a new concept 02 In fact, many Economists have evangelized prediction markets benefits to the world 03 The lack of trust in the ecosystem has prohibited prediction markets growth!13

14 Blockchain is the missing piece resolving the trust problem of prediction markets. Examples: Market manipulation Illegal insider trading Insufficient funds Non payments Incorrect winners!14

15 Delphy is!15

16 Delphy Advantage

17 Delphy Augur Gnosis } TOKEN USE Investment Fees / Dividend Fees / Dividend } TRANSACTION SPEED FAST SLOW SLOW } FEES LOW HIGH MEDIUM } VOLATILITY HIGH MEDIUM MEDIUM } APP LAUNCH Q > Q > Q } CFTC/SEC RISK LOW HIGH HIGH!17

18 Regional Rollout 1 st 2 nd 3 rd!18

19 Successful technologies create more than one global winner Delphy will take a strong foothold in Asia and expand internationally Chinese Tech always wins in China!19

20 MOBILE FIRST FASTEST TRADES LOWEST FEES!20

21 2 Information is open to the world providing a public good 3 Prices of the position changes as more money is invested Differences between prediction markets and Gambling 1 Don t consist of random events i.e. coin flip 4 Easy to liquidate the position if needed!21

22 Making the world more predictab le!22

23 2 Comparables/ Precedent Transaction 3 MV=PQ MC=TH Valuation Techniques different for different tokens even within utility 1 Discounted Cash Flows!23

24 Delphy s market capitalization will be at leas If 2% of China Invests $50 in Delphy Markets $1.4B!24

25 Appendix

26 Many different meanings - The Bitcoin Blockchain, virtual currencies, smart contracts but usually means distributed ledgers. Blockchain can mean different things to different people increasing the confusion Usually contains financial transactions. Is replicated across a number of systems in almost realtime. Usually exists over a peer-to-peer network. Uses cryptography and digital signatures to prove identity, authenticity and enforce read/write access rights. Has mechanisms to make it hard to change historical records, or at least make it easy to detect when someone is trying to do so.!26

27 What is a blockchain Comparison to pages in a book Each page in a book contains: The text: for example the story. Information about itself usually at the top/bottom of the page: title, chapter number or title, page number Similarly in a blockchain block, each block has: The contents of the block, for example in bitcoin is it the bitcoin transactions, and the miner incentive. Header!27

28 Blockchain header Digital fingerprint that keeps the chronological order A header which contains the data about the block. In bitcoin, the header includes: Technical information about the block Reference to the previous block A fingerprint (hash) of the data contained in this block Hash is important for ordering Etc.!28

29 Peer-to-peer is in some ways less efficient than client-server, as data is replicated many times; once per machine, and each addition to the data creates a lot of traffic. However each peer is more independent, and can continue operating to some extent if it loses connectivity to the rest of the network. Also peer-to-peer networks are more robust, as there is no central server that can be controlled, so closing down peer-to-peer networks is harder.!29

30 Prediction markets are easy-touse!30

31 Difficu lt to describe!31