ADTRAN Inc. NEUTRAL ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES (ADTN-NASDAQ) SUMMARY
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- Jemimah Pitts
- 5 years ago
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1 January 13, 2015 ADTRAN Inc. NEUTRAL Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 01/13/2015 Current Price (01/12/15) $21.14 Target Price $22.00 SUMMARY (ADTN-NASDAQ) ADTRAN posted third-quarter 2014 financial results wherein earnings were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues missed the same. Global macroeconomic fluctuations, foreign currency risks and stiff competition are expected to act as headwinds for ADTRAN. Moreover, ongoing mergers and acquisitions in the telecom and cable sector may result in further customer churn for ADTRAN. Despite these headwinds, new contract wins, launch of products and expectations of higher carrier expenditure both in the U.S. and Europe region in 2015 will continue to boosts the company s business while moving forward. Hence, we upgrade our recommendation on ADTRAN from Underperform to Neutral. SUMMARY DATA 52-Week High $ Week Low $17.51 One-Year Return (%) Beta 1.29 Average Daily Volume (sh) 422,915 Shares Outstanding (mil) 54 Market Capitalization ($mil) $1,141 Short Interest Ratio (days) 7.03 Institutional Ownership (%) N/A Insider Ownership (%) 3 Annual Cash Dividend $0.36 Dividend Yield (%) Yr. Historical Growth Rates Sales (%) 4.0 Earnings Per Share (%) Dividend (%) 0.0 using TTM EPS 24.0 using 2015 Estimate 25.2 using 2016 Estimate 19.9 Zacks Rank *: Short Term 1 3 months outlook 3 - Hold * Definition / Disclosure on last page Risk Level * Below Average Type of Stock Mid-Blend Industry Comm Infrastruc Zacks Industry Rank * 61 out of 267 ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES Revenue Estimates (In millions of $) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec) A 162 A 177 A 159 A 641 A A 176 A 163 A 141 E 627 E E 171 E 183 E 172 E 672 E E Earnings Per Share Estimates (EPS is operating earnings before non-recurring items, but including employee stock options expenses) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec) 2013 $0.14 A $0.18 A $0.29 A $0.21 A $0.82 A 2014 $0.18 A $0.27 A $0.22 A $0.07 E $0.74 E 2015 $0.10 E $0.23 E $0.28 E $0.23 E $0.84 E 2016 $1.06 E Projected EPS Growth - Next 5 Years % Zacks Investment Research, All Rights reserved S. Riverside Plaza, Chicago IL 60606
2 OVERVIEW Based in Huntsville, AL, ADTRAN Inc. designs, manufactures, markets and services network access solutions for communication networks. The company develops, markets and supports high-speed network access solutions for use across Internet protocol (IP), asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) and time division multiplexed (TDM) architectures in both wireline and wireless network applications. Its solutions are used to deploy new broadband networks and upgrade slower, established networks using copper, fiber, and wireless technologies both in the United States and abroad. ADTRAN maintains two operating divisions based on its product and service offerings: the Carrier Networks Division and the Enterprise Networks Division. The Carrier Networks Division provides products used by service providers to deliver voice, data and video services from their equipment, to a customer s premise, irrespective of its location either at a central office or at a remote terminal. This division accounted for 79.3% of the total revenue in ADTRAN s Enterprise Networks Division provides products used by enterprise customers to construct voice, data and video networks within the customer s site or among distributed sites. This division accounted for the remaining 20.7% of the total revenue in The company s three major product categories are Carrier Systems, Business Networking and Loop Access. Carrier Systems includes broadband access products comprising Total Access (TA) 5000 multi-service access and aggregation platform products, Total Access 1100/1200 Series of Fiber-To-The-Node (FTTN) products, Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexer (DSLAM) products, and Optical Access products. Business Networking includes Internetworking products, Optical Network Terminals (ONTs), and Integrated Access Devices (IADs). Internetworking products consist of Total Access IP Business Gateways and NetVanta product lines that include multi-service routers, managed Ethernet switches, IP Private Branch Exchange (PBX) products, IP phone products, Unified Communications solutions, and Carrier Ethernet Network Terminating Equipment. Loop Access includes products such as Digital Data Service (DDS) and Integrated Services Digital Network (Total Reach) products; High bit-rate Digital Subscriber Line (HDSL) products including Total Access 3000 HDSL and Time Division Multiplexed-Symmetrical HDSL (TDM-SHDSL) products, T1/E1/T3, Channel Service Units/Data Service Units, and TRACER fixed wireless products. In addition, ADTRAN identifies sub-categories of product revenues, which are divided into growth products, representing its primary growth areas and traditional products. The company s growth products consist of Broadband Access, Optical Access products (both included in Carrier Systems) and Internetworking products (included in Business Networking) while traditional products include HDSL (included in Loop Access) and other products. REASONS TO BUY ADTRAN expects to post improved results in 2015 as the company expects carrier expenditure to increase significantly both in the U.S. and Europe in the year. Within Broadband Access, ADTRAN is poised to benefit from the continued strong momentum of TA 5000 and FTTN platforms owing to the network upgrade to Ethernet mostly by Tier 2 and Tier 3 carriers as well as higher broadband Equity Research ADTN Page 2
3 stimulus. Further, the acquisition of the fixed-line Broadband Access business from Nokia Network and Solutions (NSN) has enhanced the company s growth prospects. The company has begun working on selected NSN products using its supply chain and believes that the new business will add to ADTRAN s global presence given its established business in the international market. ADTRAN s international business generated significant revenue growth mainly driven by solid performance from Broadband Access products in EMEA and Latin American regions. Internetworking is also expected to benefit from an increase in dealer base, aiding market share gains, new products supporting unified communications, an amplified distribution channel and improving end-market demand. Optical Access is likely to grow on strong demand for fiber-based platforms due to mobile infrastructure upgrades by large and small carriers. This business is also expected to gain market traction from products like optical network edge systems and 8000 series of Ethernet sell-side gateway products. Moreover, the company expects consistent developments in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 domestic marketplaces to drive growth as regulatory issues are sorted out. The company came up with Layer 2 and Layer 3 Gigabit access router the NetVanta 5660 which offers video, voice and data services at increased speeds. Meanwhile, ADTRAN is strengthening its premise-based devices in the home and enterprise portfolio by enhancing its FTTH technology which in turn will offer better management and automation of services. In order to target the small business segment, ADTRAN launched NetVanta Gigabit switches which will support the VoIP and Wi-Fi services. The NetVanta 1531 Gigabit 12-port switch and NetVanta 1531P 12-port Gigabit Power over Ethernet (PoE) switch support features which are quite useful for small, medium and large offices in terms of providing high quality voice and video services. ADTRAN s ProCloud Wi-Fi service, which has been developed on the company s virtual Wireless LAN, is opening up new opportunities as Valley Business Solutions (VBS) is utilizing its technology on a much wider scale. Apart from these products, the company has also registered significant growth in its professional service activities that deploy the Total Access System components in telecommunication companies. The company projects that professional services capabilities will remain accretive as both domestic and international carriers seek cost-effective methods to accelerate network deployments. The company is also moving into virtual wireless LAN solutions with the buyout of Bluesocket, a privately held U.S. company that specializes in wireless network solutions with virtual control system. In addition, the company s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.09 per share for the quarter. Moreover, the company has decided to raise its current share buy-back program by an additional five million shares. Such uninterrupted payment of dividends coupled with share repurchase plans will continue to boost shareholders wealth moving ahead. Earlier, ADTRAN launched ProCare Help Desk for resellers and service providers offering ADTRAN s ProCloud wireless LAN (WLAN) managed services. The company also declared that it has received orders from a Tier 1 telecom carrier and is also expecting a contract from a second Tier 1 carrier in These two contracts will significantly enhance the future growth potential of the company s top line. Lintasarta, the largest enterprise customer focused telecom service provider of Indonesia, has signed a deal with ADTRAN for the supply of the latter s TA 5000 platform. These platforms form the basic infrastructure of Lintasarta s fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) rollout. Previously, the company unveiled ADTRAN Crossover Enclosure, which will not only boost network speed but will also reduce the cost of installation. Most commercial and residential buildings in the U.S. are deprived of fiber-based services. So, with the launch of the Crossover solution, the reach of fiber-based services will gradually increase. ADTRAN enhanced its technical services and support program division. The new ProServices platform offers an innovative ProStart installation program, ProCare maintenance program and ProCloud managed networking services. The company started offering ProCloud Wi-Fi Private Label services in Europe which we believe will not only bolster its new revenue stream but will also lure new customers. Equity Research ADTN Page 3
4 REASONS TO SELL ADTRAN s products must comply with various regulations and standards defined by the Federal Communications Commission and Underwriters Laboratories. Products sold internationally may be required to comply with regulations or standards established by telecommunications authorities in various countries, as well as those of certain international bodies. Thus, the cost of complying with the evolving standards and regulations, or the failure to obtain domestic or foreign regulatory approvals timely may affect the company s operations and financial condition adversely. ADTRAN continues to perform creditably despite a challenging business environment. The company is currently facing considerable volatility in its business owing to irregular capital spending by telecom carriers. Moreover, the company s international business is largely exposed to currency fluctuations and exchange rate risks. Weakness in the European region and a soft enterprisespending atmosphere will continue to hurt the company s top line going forward. The market for broadband access and IP networking equipment is highly competitive. The company competes with large and well-established networking OEMs, both in the enterprise and carrier market segments. As a result, sales in both tier 2 and tier 3 markets in the U.S. have deteriorated in the reported quarter. Competition would further increase if new companies enter the market or the existing competitors expand their product lines. An increase in competition will force ADTRAN to reduce its product prices and market share. Further, competition at high level will increase spending on product development as well as sales and marketing, or cause delays or cancellations in customer orders, which may reduce the company s gross profit margins. ADTRAN s dependency on a small group of suppliers may jeopardize the company s inventory management as it may fail to deliver equipment on a timely basis, thereby losing customer confidence. Moreover, ADTRAN deals with a limited number of customers. Thus, loss of any client might impact top-line growth in the forthcoming quarters. Moreover, ongoing mergers and acquisitions in the telecom and cable sector may result in further customer churn for the company. Most of the company s sales are on an open credit basis, frequently with payment terms of 30 to 45 days in the U.S. and typically longer in many other markets outside the U.S. This exposure to the credit risks of customers and distributors may make it difficult to collect accounts receivable and impact the company s rich balance sheet. In addition, ADTRAN is vulnerable to the currency translation risk as it is expanding its international operations. RECENT NEWS Third Quarter Earnings Oct 29, 2014 ADTRAN posted mixed financial numbers in the third quarter of Earnings were at par with the Zacks Consensus Estimate while the top line significantly lagged the same. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.22 that came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate but declined 24.1% year over year. On a reported basis, the company delivered earnings of $0.21 per share, down 25% from $0.28 in the prior-year quarter. Total revenue of the company declined 8.2% to $162.9 million, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $174 million. ADTRAN witnessed sequential increase in domestic carrier business. However, the upside was overshadowed by the sluggish performance in the European region and a soft enterprise-spending Equity Research ADTN Page 4
5 atmosphere. ADTRAN, however, expects improvement in results from the beginning of 2015 as the company forecasts re-acceleration in carrier expenditure both in the U.S. and Europe. Gross margin came in at 48%, up 150 basis points year over year. However, operating income registered a steep decline of 27.4% year over year to $12.5 million. Operating margin was 7.7% against 9.7% in the prior-year quarter. At the end of the third quarter, ADTRAN generated $18 million in cash from operations compared with $22.6 million in third-quarter The company exited the reported quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $58.4 million, short-term investments of $55.6 million and stockholders equity of $566.4 million. The company s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.09 per share for the quarter which will be paid on Nov 13, 2014 to shareholders of record as of Oct 30. VALUATION ADTRAN is currently trading at 25.2x our estimate for fiscal 2015 earnings. This is at a premium over the S&P 500 but at a discount over the Industry average. With respect to our estimated earnings of fiscal 2016, the stock is trading at 19.9x, again a premium over the S&P 500 but at a discount over the Industry average. Despite global macroeconomic fluctuations, foreign currency risks and stiff competition, new contract wins, launch of products and expectations of higher carrier expenditure both in the U.S. and Europe region in 2015 may act as tailwinds for ADTRAN moving ahead. We believe that the stock is fairly valued at current levels with limited scope for upside and upgrade our recommendation on ADTRAN from Underperform to Neutral with a target price of $22. The target price is based on 26.2x our earnings estimate for Key Indicators F1 F2 Est. 5-Yr EPS Gr% P/CF 5-Yr High 5-Yr Low ADTRAN INC (ADTN) Industry Average S&P SBA COMM CORP (SBAC) EQUINIX INC (EQIX) CALIX INC (CALX) INTERCLOUD SYS (ICLD) TTM is trailing 12 months; F1 is 2015 and F2 is 2016, CF is operating cash flow P/B Last Qtr. P/B 5-Yr High P/B 5-Yr Low ROE D/E Last Qtr. Div Yield Last Qtr. EV/EBITDA ADTRAN INC (ADTN) Industry Average S&P Equity Research ADTN Page 5
6 Earnings Surprise and Estimate Revision History Equity Research ADTN Page 6
7 DISCLOSURES & DEFINITIONS The analysts contributing to this report do not hold any shares of ADTN. The EPS and revenue forecasts are the Zacks Consensus estimates. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts personal views as to the subject securities and issuers. Zacks certifies that no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed by the analyst in the report. Additional information on the securities mentioned in this report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives, the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change. This report is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Zacks or its officers, employees or customers may have a position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. Zacks uses the following rating system for the securities it covers. Outperform- Zacks expects that the subject company will outperform the broader U.S. equity market over the next six to twelve months. Neutral- Zacks expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next six to twelve months. Underperform- Zacks expects the company will under perform the broader U.S. Equity market over the next six to twelve months. The current distribution of Zacks Ratings is as follows on the 1105 companies covered: Outperform %, Neutral %, Underperform 5.8%. Data is as of midnight on the business day immediately prior to this publication. Our recommendation for each stock is closely linked to the Zacks Rank, which results from a proprietary quantitative model using trends in earnings estimate revisions. This model is proven most effective for judging the timeliness of a stock over the next 1 to 3 months. The model assigns each stock a rank from 1 through 5. Zacks Rank 1 = Strong Buy. Zacks Rank 2 = Buy. Zacks Rank 3 = Hold. Zacks Rank 4 = Sell. Zacks Rank 5 = Strong Sell. We also provide a Zacks Industry Rank for each company which provides an idea of the near-term attractiveness of a company s industry group. We have 264 industry groups in total. Thus, the Zacks Industry Rank is a number between 1 and 264. In terms of investment attractiveness, the higher the rank the better. Historically, the top half of the industries has outperformed the general market. In determining Risk Level, we rely on a proprietary quantitative model that divides the entire universe of stocks into five groups, based on each stock s historical price volatility. The first group has stocks with the lowest values and are deemed Low Risk, while the 5 th group has the highest values and are designated High Risk. Designations of Below-Average Risk, Average Risk, and Above-Average Risk correspond to the second, third, and fourth groups of stocks, respectively. Equity Research ADTN Page 7
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March 06, 2015 First Republic Bank Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 04/14/2011 Current Price (03/05/15) $57.70 Target Price $61.00 52-Week High
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More information(PGR-NYSE) Risk Level *
March 18, 2015 Progressive Corp. Current Recommendation NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 05/19/2013 Current Price (03/17/15) $27.03 Target Price $28.00 SUMMARY DATA (PGR-NYSE)
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February 09, 2015 Kirkland s Inc (KIRK-NASDAQ) Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 02/09/2015 Current Price (02/06/15) $25.66 Target Price $31.00 OUTPERFORM SUMMARY
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February 26, 2015 The Home Depot, Inc. Current Recommendation Earnings Update: Home Depot Tops Q4 Earnings & Revenues, Guides FY15 SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change
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February 02, 2015 Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG-NYSE) Analyst Note NEUTRAL Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 09/11/2014 Current Price (01/30/15) $198.66 Target
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February 11, 2015 KB Home (KBH-NYSE) Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 02/11/2015 Current Price (02/10/15) $13.61 Target Price $12.00 UNDERPERFORM SUMMARY We are downgrading
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January 21, 2015 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Outperform Date of Last Change 11/23/2009 Current Price (01/20/15) $73.31 Target Price $77.00 52-Week
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March 11, 2015 Suncor Energy (SU-NYSE) Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 12/18/2014 Current Price (03/10/15) $28.03 Target Price $25.00 UNDERPERFORM SUMMARY Amid weak
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January 08, 2015 Meritor, Inc. Current Recommendation Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 01/08/2015 Current Price (01/07/15) $15.10 Target Price $18.00 SUMMARY DATA OUTPERFORM 52-Week High
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February 02, 2015 Xerox Corporation Current Recommendation SUMMARY DATA NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 10/18/2012 Current Price (01/30/15) $13.17 Target Price $14.00 52-Week
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