LEBANON WEEKLY REPORT

Transcription

1 ECONOMY Transfers to EDL reach USD million in the first two months of 2018, up by a yearly 3.5% Of the transfers to EDL, an amount of USD 3.7 million was allotted to cover debt service and USD million to cover reimbursement of the oil suppliers: Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) and Algeria s Sonatrach. Out of a total oil bill of USD 209 million, EDL contributed 0.3% to the repayment of the two oil suppliers in the first two months of The Treasury transfers to Electricité du Liban (EDL) reached USD million in the first two months of 2018 compared to USD 205 million in the same period of 2017, hence, constituting a 3.5% yearly increase. Of the transfers to EDL, an amount of USD 3.7 million was allotted to cover debt service and USD million to cover reimbursement of the oil suppliers: Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) and Algeria s Sonatrach. The payments to the two oil suppliers increased by a yearly 3.9% from USD million in January-February According to the Ministry of Finance, out of a total oil bill of USD 209 million, EDL contributed 0.3% to the cost of oil and gas purchases in the first two months of In comparison to the previous year, EDL s contribution was at 2.5% in January-February 2017 with a total bill of USD million. Furthermore, transfers to EDL represent a large share out of the expenditures basket serving as an example of how structural problems within the country s public finances remain flagrant. The transfers in the first two months of 2018 amounted to 9.3% of primary expenditures (expenses excluding interest payment and debt service) which totaled USD 2,070 million. This share of transfers out of primary expenditures in the first two months of 2018 is lower than the 13.5% share in the first two months of Source: Ministry of Finance, Bankmed Research Ministry of Finance, Bankmed Research 1

2 ECONOMY Consumer Price Index increases by a yearly 7.61% in June 2018 The average inflation rate for the first half of 2018 was recorded at 6%. The prices of water, electricity, gas, and other fuels reported the largest y-o-y increase of 16.54% in June 2018 when compared to June On a month-on-month basis, inflation recorded a 0.91% increase in June 2018 from May Inflation recorded a yearly rate of 7.61% in June 2018 from June 2017 as indicated by the Central Administration of Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is important to note that the average inflation rate for the first half of 2018 was recorded at 6%. In parallel, water, electricity, gas and other fuels registered the largest annual increase in inflation by category by a yearly 16.54% in June 2018 followed by clothing and footwear and transportation prices by a yearly 16.32% and 11.94% when compared to June Moreover, old rental prices increased by an annual 9.54% followed by housing water, electricity, gas, and other fuels which recorded a 9% yearly increase. Communication prices, on the other hand, witnessed the lowest increase of 1% on a yearly basis in June On a month-on-month basis, inflation recorded a 0.91% increase in June 2018 from May 2018, with water, electricity, gas and other fuels recording highest monthly rise of 5.96%. Moreover, transportation prices as well as recreational and amusement prices increased by a monthly 1.67% and 0.85%, respectively. On the other hand, health prices recorded the highest month-on-month drop of 0.92% followed by clothing and footwear with a 0.5% drop in June 2018 from May On a geographical basis, North and South Lebanon witnessed the largest month-on-month increase in CPI by 2.12% and 0.93%, respectively. They were followed by Mount Lebanon and Beirut with a monthly increase of 0.8% and 0.37%, respectively. Moreover, Nabatieh and Bekaa came last recording a respective monthly increase by 0.29% and 0.21%. Source: Central Administration of Statistics, Bankmed Research Bankmed - Market & Economic Research Division 2

3 The Central Bank s assets reach USD billion as at end-july 2018 with USD 11.2 billion in gold reserves BDL s total reserves including gold, reached USD 55.6 billion as at end-july Banque du Liban (BDL) s bi-monthly balance sheet as at end-july 2018 reported total assets of USD billion, recording a yearly 20.2% increase from end-july As at end-july 2018, gold stood at USD 11.2 billion reporting a 3.4% yearly drop when compared to the same period in 2017, while foreign assets recorded a yearly 5.2% increase to reach USD 44.4 billion. Moreover, loans to the local financial sector increased by a yearly 350% to reach USD 25.3 billion as at end-july On the liabilities front, BDL reported an increase of 24.3% year-on-year in financial sector deposits to reach USD billion, accounting for about 83% of total liabilities along with a 4.1% drop in public sector deposits, which amounted to USD 6.1 billion as at end-july Source: BDL, Bankmed Research Bankmed - Market & Economic Research Division 3

4 Bank Audi reports USD 265 million of net profit in the first half of 2018, decreasing by a yearly 14% when compared to the first half of 2017 Bank Audi s net customer loans stood at USD billion as at end-june 2018, while customers deposits stood at USD billion during the same period. Bank Audi s total Customers Deposits stood at USD billion over the first half of 2018, declining by 6.4% from year-end In its consolidated financial statement for the first quarter of 2018, Bank Audi reports a decrease in net profit by a yearly 14% to reach USD 265 million as at end-june 2018 relative to USD million recorded as at end-june Nonetheless, it is important to note that excluding discontinued operations of USD 95.3 million, Bank Audi reported a 25% yearly increase as at June 2018 in its recurrent profit to reach USD million up from USD million in the corresponding period of Bank Audi's total assets stood at USD billion as at end-june 2018, rising by 2.5% relative to USD billion recorded as at end-december Total customers deposits stood at USD billion over the first half of 2018, declining by 6.4% from year-end As for net customer loans, it stood at USD billion, going down from USD billion reported at year-end 2017, thereby decreasing by 10.6%. The shareholders' equity amounted to USD 4.03 billion as at end- June 2018 decreasing by 3.9% when compared to USD 4.19 billion reported at year-end Source: Bank Audi Group, Bankmed Research Bankmed - Market & Economic Research Division 4

5 Deposits denominated in foreign currencies expand by USD 115 million during the week of July 12-19, 2018 Local currency term deposits M2 decreased by USD 263 million during the week of July 12-19, 2018 to reach USD billion. On the monetary front, the overall money supply M4 decreased by USD 186 million during the week of July 12-19, 2018 to USD billion, while the non-banking sector treasury bills portfolio decreased by USD 38 million during the same week. Lebanese Pound denominated deposits and currency in circulation M1 decreased by 2.4% (or USD 177 million) during the aforementioned week to USD billion. In parallel, local currency term deposits M2 decreased by USD 263 million during the same week to stand at USD billion. The private sector term and saving deposits denominated in LBP (M2-M1) decreased by USD 86 million during the mentioned week to around USD billion, while deposits denominated in foreign currencies (M3-M2) expanded by USD 115 million during the week to reach USD billion. Source: BDL, Bankmed Research Mazen Soueid, Ziad Hariri, and Nadine Abdel Fattah Disclaimer This material has been prepared by Bankmed, sal based on publicly available information and personal analysis. It is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be used as a research tool nor as a basis or reference for any decision. The information contained herein including any opinion, news and analysis, is based on various publicly available sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and may be subject to change without notice. Bankmed, sal does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, continued availability or completeness of such information. All data contained herein are indicative. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed therein, constitutes a solicitation, offer, personal recommendation or advice. Bankmed, sal does not assume any liability for direct, indirect, incidental or consequential damages resulting from any use of the information contained herein.