HSI continued to suffer from US-China trade tension
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- Ethelbert Marsh
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1 Turnover (HK$ bn) Hang Seng Index EAST ASIA SECURITIES COMPANY LIMITED 9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: Research: Facsimile: HONG KONG RESEARCH Restricted circulation Weekly Report Analyst: Kelvin Li 20 th April ,808 HSI continued to suffer from US-China trade tension HSI Weekly Movement 30,316 30,063 30,284 30,708 30, Apr Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri 32,000 31,500 31,000 30,500 30,000 29,500 29,000 28,500 28,000 27,500 27,000 26,500 26,000 Weekly Market Statistics Week ended 20/4/ /4/2018 Change % Hang Seng Index 30,418 30, % HS Red Chip Index 4,439 40,031-35, % HS China Enterprises Index 12,054 12, % HS Hong Kong 35 Index 3,357 3, % HS Mainland 100 Index 9,142 9, % Growth Enterprise Index % Avg Daily Turnover % (HK$ bn ) Sectoral Indices Finance 42,052 42, % Utilities 55,126 55, % Properties 40,132 41,136-1, % Comm & Ind 18,282 18, % Turnover Hang Seng Index Review & Outlook of Market Performance The local bourse continued to suffer from the deepening US-China trade tension and weak HK dollars. Nonetheless, the Hang Seng Index managed to hold ground above the 30,000 level, as gains in the PRC oil trio lent support after crude oil prices surged to three-year highs. Over the week, the HSI fell points or 1.27% to close at 30,418.33, while the HSCEI dropped 1.69% to 12, The average daily Mainboard turnover amounted to HK$111.3 billion, little changed from HK$116.9 billion in the previous week. Concerns over the Sino-US trade war exaggerated early in the week, after the US said to activate a seven-year ban on all purchases by ZTE (#763) from US companies amid its violation of sanction settlement terms. Trading in ZTE A & H shares had been halted since Tuesday. Share prices of handset components plays like AAC Tech (#2018) (-15.5% w-o-w) and Sunny Optical (#2382) (-8.7%) also tumbled, as investors worried that the counters would be negatively affected by the trade drama, too. In contrast, chipmakers like SMIC (#981) (+6.81%) rallied, as investors speculated China would speed up development of the domestic semiconductor industry. Meanwhile, the PRC automakers also fell this week, as investors worried the gradual open-up of the domestic automobile industry may lead to severe competition. On the economic front, data showed the economic growth in China remained stable with its GDP up by 6.8% in 1Q18 (4Q17: +6.8%). For the coming week, investors would turn their focus on corporate earnings, as most of the Chinese enterprises will release their first-quarter results next week (ahead of the Labour Day holiday break the week after). Exporters are expected to outperform in the near term, while the PRC banks and insurers as well as the oil trio should continue lending support to the blue-chip index. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and we, East Asia Securities Company Limited are not soliciting any action based upon it. Neither this document nor its contents shall be construed as an offer, invitation, advertisement, inducement or representation of any kind or form whatsoever. This document is based upon information, which we consider reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. At the time of preparing this report, we have no position in securities of the company or companies mentioned herein, while other Bank of East Asia Group companies may from time to time have interests in securities of the company or companies mentioned herein.
2 US & Regional Markets Weekly Update Date US US JAPAN SINGAPORE MALAYSIA BANGKOK TAIPEI Dow Jones NASDAQ Nikkei Avg STI KLSE Index SET Index Weighted Index 20th April 24,644.89* 7,238.06* 21, , , ,799.22# 10, th April 24, , , , , , , Change % +1.2% +1.8% +0.0% +1.9% +1.0% +1.8% -1.7% Remark: (*) closing as of 19 th April 2018; (#) closing as of 17:00 20 th April 2018 Major Changes in Index Constituent s (Week ended 20 th April 2018) Hang Seng Index (HSI) AAC Technologies HK$ HK$ % Handset components manufacturers were under pressure during the week, Sunny Optical HK$ HK$ % as fear for the US-China trade war heated up after the US said to start a 7- year ban on all purchases by ZTE from US companies. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) PetroChina HK$5.87 +HK$ % The PRC oil plays outperformed, as international crude oil prices surged to Sinopec Corp HK$7.50 +HK$ % three-year highs amid rising geopolitical tension in Syria. Hang Seng China-Affiliated Corporations Index (HSCCI) Brilliance China HK$ HK$ % The PRC automakers underperformed during the week, as investors worried that competition in the domestic automobile industry may heat up after the Chinese government pledged to remove foreign ownership restriction in their respective joint ventures in five years. 2
3 Summary of US Economic News Indicator Change/Index Comments Retail sales Industrial production Initial jobless claims week ended 14 th April 2018 Index of leading economic indicators +0.6% +0.5% -1, % Retail sales grew 0.6% in March, reviving from a 0.1% decline in February and beating consensus forecast of a 0.4% rise. Industrial production grew 0.5% in March, slightly higher than market expectation of a 0.4% rise, as reviving utilities output lent support. Initial jobless claims slipped 1,000 to 232,000 last week, higher than consensus forecast of a fall to 230,000. Leading economic indicators expanded by 0.3% in March, in line with market expectation. Forthcoming Important Announcements / Events 23 rd April 2018 (Monday) HK : Consumer price index Bao Shen (08151) trading debut Chalco (02600) Q results US : Alphabet Inc Q1 results Microsoft Q1 results 24 th April 2018 (Tuesday) HK : Conch Cement (00914) Q results Datang Power (00991) Q results GF Securities (01776) Q results Great Wall Motors (02333) Q results Huaneng Power (00902) Q results WH Group (00288) Q results Zijin Mining (02899) Q results US : Consumer confidence index April 2018 New home sales 3M Q1 results Caterpillar Q1 results Coca Cola Q1 results 25 th April 2018 (Wednesday) HK : AEON Credit (00900) final results BBMG (02009) Q results China Vanke (02202) Q results Chongqing Iron (01053) Q results Dalian Port (02880) Q results Goldwind (02208) Q results Guangshen Railway (00525) Q results Shenzhen Expressway (00548) Q results US : Baidu Q1 results Boeing Q1 results Facebook Q1 results Ford Motor Q1 results Qualcom Q1 results Sohu.Com Q1 results Twitter Q1 results Visa Q1 results 3
4 Forthcoming Important Announcements / Events 26 th April 2018 (Thursday) HK : External merchandise trade Air China (00753) Q results China Construction Bank (00939) Q results China Life (02628) Q results China Longyuan Power (00916) Q results China Overseas Land (00688) Q results CITIC Bank (00998) Q results COSCO SHIPPING Ports (01199) Q results CRRC (01766) Q results DFZQ (03958) Q results GAC Group (02238) Q results Haitong Securities (06837) Q results HTSC (06886) Q results NCI (01336) Q results Ping An (02318) Q results Sinopec Corp (00386) Q results Sinopharm (01099) Q results Vinda International (03331) Q results US : Initial jobless claims week ended 21 st April 2018 Durable goods orders Amazon.com Q1 results General Motors Q1 results Inter Corp Q1 results Times Warner Q1 results 27 th April 2018 (Friday) HK : Tianjin Tianbao Energy (01671) trading debut Agricultural Bank of China (01288) Q results Bank of China (03988) Q results Bank of Communications (03328) Q results BOC (Hong Kong) (02388) Q results BYD Company (01211) Q results China Communications Construction (01800) Q1 results China Everbright Bank (06818) Q results China Merchants Bank (03968) Q results China Oilfield Services (02883) Q results China Railway Construction (01186) Q results China Railway Group (00390) Q results China Shenhua Energy (01088) Q results China Telecom (00728) Q results CITIC Securities (06030) Q results CPIC (02601) Q results CQRC Bank (03618) Q results Fosun Pharmaceutical (02196) Q results GTJA (02611) Q results Guangdong Investment (00270) Q results ICBC (01398) Q results Minsheng Bank (00998) Q results PetroChina (00857) Q results PSBC (01658) Q results Weichai Power (02338) Q results Yanzhou Coal (01171) Q results US : Gross domestic product Q Consumer sentiment April 2018 Chervon Q1 results Exxon Mobil Q1 results Xerox Q1 results 4
5 Important Disclosure / Analyst Declaration / Disclaimer This report is published by East Asia Securities Company Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Bank of East Asia, Limited ( BEA ). Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report (whether in part or in whole) certifies that (i) the views on the companies and securities mentioned in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views; and (ii) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and has no intention whatsoever to solicit any action based upon it. Neither this report nor its contents shall be construed as an offer, invitation, advertisement, inducement or representation of any kind or form whatsoever. This report is based upon information, which East Asia Securities Company Limited considers reliable, but accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. The analysis or opinions expressed in this report only reflect the views of the relevant analyst as at the date of the release of this report which are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific recipient. This report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Investments involve risks and investors should exercise prudence in making their investment decisions and obtain separate legal or financial advice, if necessary. East Asia Securities Company Limited and / or The Bank of East Asia Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on this report or further communication given in relation to this report. At the time of preparing this report, East Asia Securities Company Limited has no position in securities of the company or companies mentioned herein, while BEA along with its affiliates/associates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report. East Asia Securities Company Limited is currently a market maker of certain stock options listed on The Exchange of Hong Kong Limited ( HKEx ), an updated list of which can be found on the website of HKEx, BEA and its affiliates/associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. BEA and/or any of its affiliates/associates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the company or companies mentioned in this report and may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the company or companies mentioned in the report. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in, any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law and regulation. 5
HSI gained 9% in March on tamed rate hike fear
Turnover (HK$ bn) Hang Seng Index EAST ASIA SECURITIES COMPANY LIMITED 9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: 2308 8200 Research: 3608 8098 Facsimile: 3608 6113 HONG KONG RESEARCH Restricted
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1 st March, 2016 Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth Hang Seng Index 19,111.93-252.22-1.30-2.47-14.61 HSCI 2,597.82-32.20-1.22-2.17-15.63
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More informationWith limited upside ahead, we suggest investors to start taking profit above 21,500. Hang Seng Index Performance. Index Performance.
26 th July, 2016 Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth Hang Seng Index 21,993.44 29.17 0.13 8.56 2.74 HSCI 2,958.28 3.88 0.13 7.65 1.75
More informationWe believe further upside for the Hang Seng Index is limited and recommend short-term investors to take profit. Hang Seng Index Performance
19 th Jan, 2017 Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth Hang Seng Index 23,098.26 257.29 1.13 5.80-0.89 HSCI 3,137.35 34.98 1.13 5.31-0.57
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More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to have a technical support at 24,000. Market Overview. Hang Seng Index Performance
26 October 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 24,994.46-1.0% -10.1% -16.7% -11.4% HSCEI (H-Shares) 10,176.56-0.5%
More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to underperform HSCEI in near term and dip below 20,000 due to profit taking. Hang Seng Index Performance.
11 st April, 2016 Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth Hang Seng Index 20,370.40 104.35 0.51 0.85 2.42 HSCI 2,794.95 10.29 0.37 1.69 2.80
More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to be highly volatile in the short term. Market Overview
8 November 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 26,147.69 0.1% -0.2% -14.0% -9.5% HSCEI (H-Shares) 10,641.48 0.1% 2.4%
More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to test 27,000 in the worst scenario. Market Overview. Hang Seng Index Performance
28 August 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Cha nge Hong Kong Close 1- Da y 1- Mth 6 - Mth 12 - Mth Hang Seng Index 28,271.27 2.2% - 1.9% - 8.3% 1.5% HSCEI (H-
More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to make a technical rebound in near term. Market Overview. Hang Seng Index Performance
15 October 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 25,266.37-3.5% -4.1% -18.0% -11.2% HSCEI (H-Shares)
More informationWe believe further upside for Hang Seng Index will be limited in near term. Market Overview. 22 November 2017
22 November 2017 Hang Seng Index Performance Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 29,818.07 1.91 4.67 17.43 31.48 HSCEI (H-Shares) 11,874.37 2.91 2.73
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More informationWe believe further upside for the Hang Seng Index is limited and recommend short-term investors to take profit. Hang Seng Index Performance
16 th Jan, 2017 Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth Hang Seng Index 22,937.38 108.36 0.47 4.16-1.27 HSCI 3,110.23 10.89 0.35 3.46-0.80
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30 October 2017 Hang Seng Index Performance Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 28,438.85 0.84 3.21 15.53 23.89 HSCEI (H-Shares) 11,643.57 1.72 6.72
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9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: 3608 8000 Research: 3608 8097 Facsimile: 3608 6113 HONG KONG RESEARCH Analyst: Paul Sham 25 th March 2011. BOC HONG KONG (HOLDINGS) LIMITED ( 中銀香港 )
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27 November 2017 Major Market Indicators Mkt. Turn.(mn) 104,600 135,900 157,400 Stock Advances 985 688 939 Stock Declines 664 1,024 752 HSI 29,866 29,707 30,003 Change +158-295 +185 HSI Turn.($bn) 42.44
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Hong Kong/China Market Technical Strategy The EUR depreciated against the USD after a short-lived rebound in late Sep18 Indices Latest Chg. Pts HSI 24,994-255 HSI Future 25,133 237 DJIA 24,985 401 S&P
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Hong Kong/China Market Technical Strategy Qinhuangdao 5500kcal thermal coal price struck yearly highs in recent sessions Indices Latest Chg. Pts HSI 32,967-187 HSI Future 32,841-59 DJIA 26,439-177 S&P
More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to hover between 27,000 and 28,800 but the risk is on the upside. Market Overview. Hang Seng Index Performance
3 October 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 27,126.38-2.4% -2.7% -9.9% -1.6% HSCEI (H-Shares)
More informationWe believe further upside for Hang Seng Index will be limited in near term. Market Overview. 24 November 2017
24 November 2017 Hang Seng Index Performance Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 29,707.94-0.99 5.52 16.83 31.40 HSCEI (H-Shares) 11,737.06-1.85 2.91
More informationWe take a neutral view on Hang Seng Index this month with a trading range of 26,000-28,000. Market Overview. Hang Seng Index Performance
10 October 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 26,172.91-0.1% -1.7% -14.8% -8.1% HSCEI (H-Shares)
More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to test 27,000 in the worst scenario. Market Overview. Hang Seng Index Performance
27 August 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Major Market Indicators % Cha nge Hong Kong Close 1- Da y 1- Mth 6 - Mth 12 - Mth Hang Seng Index 27,671.87-0.4% - 3.9% - 11.5% - 0.6% HSCEI (H- Shares) 10,779.71-0.3%
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More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to move within the range of 29,000 and 31,000 in near term. Hang Seng Index Performance
11 May 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Cha nge Hong Kong Close 1- Da y 1- Mth 6 - Mth 12 - Mth Hang Seng Index 30,809.22 0.9% - 0.3% 5.8% 22.6% HSCEI (H- Shares)
More informationWe take a neutral view on stock market and expect Hang Seng Index to vary between 21,200 and 22,800 this month. Hang Seng Index Performance
4 th Jan, 2017 Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth Hang Seng Index 22,150.40 149.84 0.68-1.84-6.50 HSCI 3,011.03 16.42 0.55-2.31-5.68
More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to move within the range of 29,500 and 31,500 in near term. Hang Seng Index Performance
21 June 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 29,696.17 0.8% -4.9% 1.1% 15.6% HSCEI (H-Shares) 11,505.74
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9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: 3608 8000 Research: 3608 8097 Facsimile: 3608 6132 HONG KONG RESEARCH Analyst: Paul Sham 31 st August 2009. CHINA CITIC BANK CORPORATION LIMITED ( 中信銀行
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9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: 3608 8000 Research: 3608 8097 Facsimile: 3608 6132 HONG KONG RESEARCH Analyst: Vincent Leung 31 st July 2007. HANG SENG BANK LIMITED ( 恒生銀行 ) Sector
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More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to test 27,000 in the worst scenario. Market Overview. Hang Seng Index Performance
16 August 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 27,323.59-1.5% -4.3% -12.2% -0.3% HSCEI (H-Shares)
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9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: 2308 8200 Research: 3608 8097 Facsimile: 3608 6132 HONG KONG RESEARCH Analyst: Paul Sham 31 st July 2012. HSBC HOLDINGS PLC ( 滙豐控股 ) Sector : Banking
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Hong Kong/China Market Technical Strategy The S&P500 has been on positive run since Apr18 Indices Latest Chg. Pts HSI 27,928 175 HSI Future 27,912 60 DJIA 25,734-89 S&P 500 2,862-1 NASDAQ 7,889 30 H-share
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More informationWe expect Hang Seng Index to move within the range of 29,500 and 31,500 in near term. Hang Seng Index Performance
25 May 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Cha nge Hong Kong Close 1- Da y 1- Mth 6 - Mth 12 - Mth Hang Seng Index 30,760.41 0.3% 1.4% 3.0% 20.0% HSCEI (H- Shares)
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24 March 2016 Major Market Indicators Mkt. Turn.(mn) 63,800 65,400 80,100 Stock Advances 625 697 951 Stock Declines 889 849 646 HSI 20,615 20,666 20,684 Change -51-17 +12 HSI Turn.($bn) 20.16 21.92 25.89
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20 June 2017 Major Market Indicators Mkt. Turn.(mn) 65,700 79,800 74,300 Stock Advances 952 753 515 Stock Declines 972 807 1,091 HSI 25,924 25,626 25,565 Change +298 +61-310 HSI Turn.($bn) 22.72 28.37
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9 October 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 26,202.57-1.4% -2.9% -13.3% -7.5% HSCEI (H-Shares) 10,393.29-1.3% -1.6%
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17 August 2018 Hang Seng Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Major Market Indicators % Cha nge Hong Kong Close 1- Da y 1- Mth 6 - Mth 12 - Mth Hang Seng Index 27,100.06-0.8% - 3.8% - 12.9% - 0.9% HSCEI
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