Weekly Financial Market update

Transcription

1 Weekly Financial Market update The Snub suddenly turns a Bandwagon Market gets its share of US-SINO truce and OPEC compact December 9, 2018

2 Weekly financial Market Update Weekly Market Summary: The Market breadth closed negative at 0.50x The Nigerian capital market would always need the participation of foreign investors as much as it needs retail investors to increase the depth and resilience of the market. This however necessitates the importance of US Fed outlook on rate hike beyond the neutral point, global trade concerns and oil price as its continued to weigh on foreign reserves as well as price stability. Thus, the 90-day truce between Trump and Xi although quite ambiguous but gave equities market a sort of short-live respite as well as OPEC rein on oil production to stabilize price in near term. All these factors culminated the bearish outlook on equities market this week. In addition to the aforementioned drivers, renewed interest in DIAMONDBNK counters was also a significant push to the NSEASI. Going forward, NSEASI resumed the week in the red -0.24% while the positive closes in the two preceding days of trading signal a silver lining which was halted by a significant decline recorded on Thursday at -1.07%. Fortunately, Friday gain reaffirm MorganCapital Research position on stationary path of the market trend, basically in the bearish region at -0.02% w/w. Based on our weekly performance watch, Oil/gas sector topped the table due to gain in OANDO 9.57% as the banking sector and consumer goods indexes closely followed by 0.89% and 0.84% apiece upon positive return in DIAMONDBNK and CHAMPION while industrial goods and insurance indexes slipped significantly -2.08% and -3.06% respectively as investors sold off CONTINSURE, PRESTIGE, CCNN among other counters. Money Market Rates Rate(%) %Δ Overnight rate Open Buy Daily Commodity Price Watch Previous Current Daily (%) Brent($/PB) Gold Silver Platinum Copper w-o-w returns chart Gainers %Δ DIAMONDBNK IKEJAHOTEL AIICO JAIZBANK 10 CHAMPION 9.66 OANDO 9.57 LEARNAFRCA 8.62 CUTIX 8.24 WEMABANK 7.84 FBNH 7.04 losers %Δ CONTINSURE PRESTIGE MRS NNFM TRANSEXPR NIGERINS CCNN MBENEFIT -8 AGLEVENT -6.9 CILEASING -5.83

3 That said, a total volume of 1.07billion shares worth N11.191billion were traded in 14,430 deals as against 1.199billion shares valued N14.277billion which were exchange in 15,841 deals. These showed that all indicators declined across board. Today s performance (Friday) which gained 0.15% was a sigh of relieve from the significantly plunge recorded in the yesterday. Thus, NSEASI closed at 30,867, up by points while the market capitalization added N17.424billion compared to N billion loss printed in the previous day to end at N11.27trillion. Regarding the total volume and value traded, both shed % and % to finish at million and N1.556billion in that order just as the total deals executed lost % to 2,631. On the technicals, RSI stayed above the floor at from and the Year-to-Date(YtD) return maintained its downward trends at %. Review of Sectoral Performance Consumer goods index topped the 3 performer sectors to close in the green at 1.95% upon significant interest in the counters of NESTLE 4.66% and DANGSUGAR 3.05% while NNFM, FLOURMILL and DANGFLOUR dipped %, -3.81% and -0.79% apiece. Insurance index rose 0.02% to end at as a result of appreciation in LASACO 7.41% and REGALINS 5.05% which helped to shrug off the negative impact of losses in WAPIC -2.44% and AFRIPRUD -1.07% while oil and gas sector ended inertia. On the laggard sectors, banking sector and industrial goods indexes slide by -0.47% and -0.35% respectively on the back of selloff pressure in its counters, mostly affected were UBA -3.8%, ETI -3.12%, STERLNBANK -1.18% and DANGCEM -0.54% as against positive sentiments around DIAMONDBNK 9.68%, WEMABANK 3.77%, ACCESS 2.05% and 2 other counters. Movement of NSEASI(Year-to-Date) Relative Strength Index(RSI)

4 NSE Market Indices Return Open(points) Close(points) Daily(%) WtD(%) MtD(%) YTD(%) NSE All Share Index NSE Banking Sector Index NSE Industrial Goods Index NSE Consumer Goods Index NSE Oil & Gas Index NSE Insurance Index Source: NSE, MorganCapital Research Market sentiment At the end of today s session, 10 counters closed in green as against 20 losers. Hence, MorganCapital Research believes the market will continue to skew in the bearish territory although not devoid of intermittence gains but not an assertion to a trend reversal in near term. Therefore, our position is that banking sector counters with sound fundamentals are viable investment options before a stable economic path is identified. Top Gainers Top Losers Ticker Close Change %Δ Ticker Price Change %Δ NESTLE AIRSERVICE DANGSUGAR SCOA IKEJAHOTEL NNFM ACCESS CHAMS DIAMONDBNK NAHCO UBN UBA ZENITHBANK FLOURMILL LASACO NPFMCRFBK WEMABANK ETI REGALINS WAPIC Top Traded Stocks by Volume Top Traded Stocks by Value Ticker Deal Volume %Δ Ticker Deal Value %Δ OANDO 50 60,370, OANDO ,805, FCMB 75 22,436, GUARANTY ,985, DIAMONDBNK 82 14,305, ZENITHBANK ,480, STERLNBANK ,908, NB ,600, ZENITHBANK ,055, STANBIC ,874, GUARANTY 170 7,727, DANGCEM 55 59,007, FIDELITYBK 68 6,660, UBA 98 45,510, UBA 98 5,991, NESTLE 25 41,336, DANGFLOUR 35 5,029, FCMB 75 33,676, FBNH 154 3,789, DANGFLOUR 35 31,895, Source: NSE, MorganCapital Research

5 NASD OTC Performance PARAMETER Previous Current Weekly(%) Daily (%) USI Capitalization ( 'Bn) Volume Traded Value Traded ( '000) Deals Executed NSEASI & Moving Averages (100 and 200-day) Source: NSE, MorganCapital Research Top Performers Global Market Performance 1 day 12/07 1 week 1 month 3 months Index Change Index Change Index Change Index Change Norway 2.28% Vietnam 3.46% Philippines 6.07% Brazil 15.31% Russia 2.10% Greece 2.93% Hungary 5.00% Russia 10.23% Denmark 1.42% Russia 2.82% Vietnam 3.95% Hungary 7.85% Sweden 1.21% Abu Dhabi 2.23% Indonesia 3.14% Argentina 5.83% London 1.10% Philippines 1.27% Singapore 1.49% Indonesia 4.70% India 1.02% Indonesia 1.16% India 1.27% Poland 1.04% Ireland 1.02% Chinext 0.87% Greece 1.24% Turkey 0.46% Netherlands 1.01% SZ SME 0.80% Poland 0.63% Singapore -0.74% Turkey 0.94% Shanghai 0.68% Argentina 0.46% Abu Dhabi -0.85% Portugal 0.91% Shenzhen 0.68% Brazil 0.46% Vietnam -1.06% ` Top Decliners 1 day 12/07 1 week 1 month 3 months Index Change Index Change Index Change Index Change NASDAQ Egypt Ireland Egypt Rus 3000 growth Rus Mexico Ireland Rus NASDAQ Nigeria Luxembourg S&P Rus 3000 growth UAE Dubai Rus Rus Ireland Rus Mexico Rus Rus Austria NASDAQ Rus 3000 value S&P Luxembourg S. Africa Argentina Rus NASDAQ Rus 3000 growth Finland Austria Egypt Finland Philippines Rus 3000 value Rus 3000 growth SZ SME

6 MorganCapital Securities Limited ("MorganCapital"), formerly known as International Capital Securities Limited, was incorporated on 28th January, 1997; and was issued a license as a Dealing Member of the NSE on 3rd October, 1997, after obtaining license of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker/Dealer. The Company has remained a dealing member firm of the NSE since then (over 17years ago). In 2009, MorganCapital got licensed by the SEC to perform an additional role as an Issuing House/Financial Adviser. MorganCapital was recently accredited by the Nigerian Stock Exchange as a Designated Adviser to the Alternative Securities Market (ASeM) Board, after a very rigorous and competitive process. MorganCapital is a full fledge Investment Banking, Securities Trading and Principal Investments Firm, with licenses from the Nigerian Securities & Exchange Commission and the Nigerian Stock Exchange. MorganCapital provides a comprehensive range of investment banking and financial advisory services to private, public sector, corporate, and institutional clients. Our firm has very strong contacts with many African-focused & emerging markets investors/fund managers. MorganCapital has advised on a number of transactions in the Nigerian Capital Markets, including provision of Financial Advisory Service to the Federal Government of Nigeria, through the Bureau of Public Enterprises ("BPE") for the concessioning of the National Arts Theater, the Tafawa Balewa Square, the Lagos Trade fair complex and the 6 National Stadia. MorganCapital also advised the BPE on the proposed sale of the Ijora Power Plant, the Calabar Power Plant and the Oji River coal-fired power plant. Our group is focused on providing unbiased financial advisory and investment banking services to individuals and institutions that are seeking to invest in Africa or already involved in investing in Africa. One of our goals is to be the BEST link to the Nigerian Capital Market. CONTACT US Research Omosuyi Temitope temitopeo@morgancapitalgroup.com Investment Banking Adewale Adetiba adewalea@morgancapitalgroup.com Securities Dealing Ogochukwu Njoku ogochukwun@morgancapitalgroup.com Michael Joel michaelj@morgancapitalgroup.com For further information, please contact: MorganCapital Securities Limited The Pent House 3 Biaduo Street, Off Keffi Street S/West Ikoyi Lagos, Nigeria Tel: 234-(1) , 234-(1) info@morgancapitalgroup.com This report by MorganCapital Securities Ltd is for information purposes only. The company and its employees do not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information provided as such information was gathered from primary and secondary reliable sources. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of market trends, which are based on current market sentiment. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for a ll investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. We, therefore, do not take responsibility for any loss arising from the use of the information.