Iowa Public Employees Retirement System Economic Assumptions Review

Transcription

1 Iowa Public Employees Retirement System Economic Assumptions Review Presented By: Cavanaugh Macdonald March 24, 2017 Request for Proposals Actuarial Consulting Services April 13, 2010

2 Background Assumptions have a significant impact on the calculation of liabilities and actuarial contribution rates Future benefit payments are dependent on number of contingent events that are unknown Actuaries use assumptions to estimate the timing, duration and amount of future benefit payments Assumptions will impact the allocation of costs so usually set neither overly conservative or aggressive Assumptions are just that assumptions. If actual experience differs from the assumption over time, the costs will differ also 2

3 Purpose of Experience Study Provides basis for analyzing existing assumptions and developing recommended changes Actuary s role is to make recommendations for each assumption As fiduciaries, the Board is responsible for the selection of actuarial assumptions Board can adopt all, none, or some of actuary s recommendations Assumptions do not affect the true cost of the plan which is the actual benefit payments paid from the trust 3

4 Selection of Assumptions What Are They? Who Selects Them? Economic Demographic Economic Demographic Price Inflation Investment Return Wage Growth COLA Interest Crediting Rate Payroll Growth Retirement Rates Promotional/Step Pay Increases Disability Turnover Mortality Board Actuary Other Advisors Mostly Actuary Board Approves 4

5 IPERS Experience Study Performed every four years for IPERS Monitor all actuarial assumptions and methods used in the valuation process Last IPERS study covered fiscal years 2010 through 2013 Next study, covering fiscal years 2014 through 2017, is scheduled for June, 2018 Economic assumptions are being reviewed earlier at Board s request 5

6 Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOP) Issued by the Actuarial Standards Board Provides guidance to actuaries in the selection of assumptions used in valuing pension benefits Economic assumptions (ASOP 27) 6

7 Actuarial Standard of Practice Number 27 Recommendation is for a reasonable assumption Appropriate for purpose of measurement Reflects actuary s professional judgment Takes into account historical and current economic data that is relevant Reflects actuary s estimate of future experience, observation of estimates inherent in market data, or combination No significant bias (not significantly optimistic or pessimistic) Permissible to include some conservatism for adverse deviation Advises actuaries not to assign too much credibility to recent experience 7

8 Economic Assumptions Building Block Method Investment Return Individual Salary Increases Wage Inflation Real Rate of Return Merit Scale Productivity Productivity Inflation Inflation Inflation Note: inflation assumption and productivity must be consistent in all assumptions. 8

9 Inflation Assumption Price inflation represents annual increase in cost of living, measured by CPI Current assumption is 3.00% Indirectly impacts the valuation as a component of other economic assumptions Investment return General wage growth (which becomes part of individual salary increase assumption) Interest on member contribution balances Payroll growth for amortization of unfunded actuarial liability Dividend for pre-1990 retirees 9

10 Inflation Assumption Considerations for setting the assumption Historical inflation Market expectations Social Security projections Peer group comparison 10

11 Annual Rate Historical Inflation (measured from 12/31/16) 15% Price Inflation CPI-U 10% 5% 0% -5% Calendar Year Annual 30-Year Average Assumed 3.00% Period Inflation Period Inflation 90 Years 2.94% 30 Years 2.65% 60 Years 3.70% 20 Years 2.15% 50 Years 4.09% 10 Years 1.76% 40 Years 3.66% 11

12 Peer Group Comparison Inflation Assumptions Jul Source: NASRA Public Fund Survey 12

13 Analysis and Recommendation Bond Market Pricing Difference between 30-year Treasuries and TIPS as of 12/31/16 was 2.1% Investment consultants median long-term inflation assumption is around 2.3% Social Security Administration intermediate assumption 2.6% over next 75 years Data and analysis supports lowering the inflation assumption Recommend reducing inflation assumption from 3.00% to 2.60% 13

14 Interest on Member Accounts Law sets interest rate at 1% above 1-year CD rates. Analyzed last ten years of actual interest credited compared to inflation Average was 1.01% above inflation Recommend assumption change from 3.75% to 3.50% (inflation assumption of 2.60% %) 14

15 Investment Return Assumption Building block approach Rate of price inflation (previously addressed) Real rate of return Sum is expected investment return Asset allocation is the key factor in setting this assumption Portfolios that are more aggressive can generally expect higher returns along with potentially greater volatility Most powerful assumption in valuation Small changes can have large impact on liabilities and contribution rates Current assumption: 7.50% (3.0% inflation + 4.5% real return) 15

16 Investment Return Assumption Retirement funding is a long-term concern and so a long-term assumption is appropriate 16

17 Annual Return IPERS Historical Fiscal Year Returns d 25% 20% 15% 30-year annualized return = 8.64% Current actuarial assumed investment return = 7.50%* 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% *Actuarial interest rate assumption: : 6.50% : 6.75% present: 7.50% Fiscal Year ANNUALIZED RETURNS through 6/30/16 1-Year Return: 2.15% 15-Year Return: 6.62% 3-Year Return: 7.17% 20-Year Return: 7.85% 5-Year Return: 7.06% 25-Year Return: 8.43% 10-Year Return: 6.31% 30-Year Return: 8.64% 17

18 Peer Group Comparison Trend has been to lower investment return assumption Note: Investment mixes may differ significantly between funds 18

19 Investment Return Assumption Forward looking analysis using capital market assumptions Wilshire (2017 assumptions) 2016 Horizon Actuarial Survey 2016 Horizon Actuarial Survey includes capital market assumptions for 35 investment consultants of which 12 provided both short-term and long-term assumptions Consider all information, but recognize Wilshire has greater knowledge and insight into the IPERS portfolio 19

20 Horizon Survey Assumptions (20-Year Assumptions) Range of Assumptions by Advisors 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Minimum Median Maximum 20

21 Investment Return Assumption Median (50 th percentile) of expected returns using Wilshire and Horizon s capital market assumptions Wilshire (10-Year) Wilshire (30-Year) Horizon (10-Year) Horizon (20-Year) Real Return 4.33% 5.09% 4.29% 5.21% Inflation 1.95% 2.33% 2.16% 2.31% Nominal Return 6.28% 7.42% 6.45% 7.52% Note: Each investment consultant s inflation assumption is reflected here. 21

22 Distribution of Expected Returns (Percentile Results) 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 9.5% 95 th 10.7% 8.7% 95 th 75 th 8.0% 7.0% 7.6% 75 th 7.4% 50 th 6.0% 6.3% 50 th 6.1% 25 th 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 25 th 4.3% 5 th 3.0% 3.1% 5 th 10 years 30 years Using Wilshire s capital market assumptions including inflation. 22

23 Analysis of Expected Return Significant difference between expected returns in short term and long term Options to address this issue: Maintain long-term assumption that is significantly higher than short-term expectations Lower return assumption to expected return in short-term Use select and ultimate approach to setting the assumption (one assumption for 10 years and different assumption thereafter) Use a single return assumption that blends both shortterm and long-term return expectations 23

24 Analysis of Expected Return Need to maintain long-term perspective Material difference in short and long-term return expectations are hard to ignore given impact on funding of System Real rate of return expectations (Wilshire) Short term: 4.33% Long term: 5.09% Current assumption of 4.50% lies between the two with heavier weighting to short term, similar to system liabilities 24

25 Expected Real Returns (40 th -60 th Percentile Results) Percentile Wilshire 30-Year Horizon 20-Year 60 th 5.58% 5.72% 55 th 5.33% 5.46% 50 th 5.09% 5.21% 45 th 4.84% 4.96% 40 th 4.59% 4.71% 25

26 Administrative Expenses Past practice set the investment return assumption as net of administrative expenses Average expense ratio over the last 9 years is approximately 0.05% Small adjustment needed to account for administrative expenses 26

27 Investment Return Assumption Recommended Real Return 4.50% Inflation 2.60% Administrative Expenses (0.05%) Net investment return 7.05% Recommend decreasing investment return assumption from 7.50% to 7.00% 27

28 General Wage Growth Assumption Typically consists of price inflation and productivity (standard of living increase) Historical data is based on the national average wage index from Social Security Administration 28

29 Historical Statistics (rolling 30-year periods) Wage Inflation vs. CPI-U Wage Index - 30-Year CPI - 30-Year 29

30 General Wage Growth Assumption Some Limitations Reflects entire workforce subject to FICA Based on increases in average (mean) wage Over last 25 years, median real wage increase was only 0.42% compared to mean wage increase of 0.77% Median real weekly non-farm wages increased only 0.24% from 2005 to

31 General Wage Growth Assumption Assumptions for Social Security projections (high, intermediate and low cost) range from 0.5% to 1.8%, with 1.2% as the intermediate assumption Recommend reduction from 4.00% to 3.25% with components shown below: Current Proposed Price Inflation 3.00% 2.60% Productivity 1.00% 0.65% General Wage Growth 4.00% 3.25% 31

32 Payroll Growth Assumption Payroll growth assumption is used to determine the amortization payment on Unfunded Actuarial Liability Unfunded Actuarial Liability is amortized as a level percent of payroll Need an assumption about future payroll amounts over the amortization period Current assumption is 4.00% composed of 3.00% price inflation and 1.00% real wage growth With a given set of economic assumptions, a lower payroll growth assumption provides a margin for adverse deviation 32

33 Payroll Growth Assumption Recommend no assumed growth in the size of the active membership With a stable population, total covered payroll is expected to grow with general wage growth Actual IPERS experience indicates covered payroll growth near general wage growth, after adjusting for increase in active membership Recommend lowering payroll growth assumption from 4.00% to 3.25% 33

34 Summary of Recommended Economic Assumptions Assumption Current Recommended Price inflation 3.00% 2.60% Interest on Member Accounts 3.75% 3.50% Investment return 7.50% 7.00% General wage growth 4.00% 3.25% Payroll growth 4.00% 3.25% Effective June 30,

35 Cost Impact of Changes The change in investment return is the most significant change Lowering investment return assumption results in higher normal cost and actuarial liabilities Actual contribution rate impact will depend on period over which the increased liability is funded 35

36 Amortization of Changes Amortization policy leaves duration of assumption change to the Board Gains and losses are amortized over 20 years, so assumption change should be no shorter Actuarial profession white paper suggests years is ideal, but accepts that a longer period may be appropriate We suggest a period in the range of 20 to 30 years 36

37 Board Considerations for Amortization Period Longer period results in lower contribution rates and, therefore, less immediate impact on members and employers Shorter period pushes the System toward fully funding more quickly (20 years from now instead of 30) IPERS Contribution Rate Funding Policy will tend to move the System toward full funding by maintaining the higher contribution rates until each group reaches 95% funding This is the first time the Board has had to address this situation, so no prior guidance 37

38 Cost Impact: Regular Members (Using 6/30/16 Valuation) Before Changes Amortize Changes Over 30 Years Amortize Changes Over 20 Years Actuarial Liability ($M) $32,578 $33,884 $33,884 Actuarial Value of Assets ($M) $27,001 $27,001 $27,001 Unfunded Actuarial Liability ($M) $ 5,576 $ 6,883 $ 6,883 Funded Ratio 82.9% 79.7% 79.7% Normal Cost Rate 10.20% 10.42% 10.42% UAL Amortization Rate 4.01% 5.19% 5.48% Actuarial Contribution Rate 14.21% 15.61% 15.90% Required Contribution Rate 14.88% 15.61% 15.88% Employer Contribution Rate 8.93% 9.37% 9.53% Employee Contribution Rate 5.95% 6.24% 6.35% Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. 38

39 Cost Impact: Sheriffs/Deputies (Using 6/30/16 Valuation) Before Changes Amortize Changes Over 30 Years Amortize Changes Over 20 Years Actuarial Liability ($M) $625 $650 $650 Actuarial Value of Assets ($M) $602 $602 $602 Unfunded Actuarial Liability ($M) $ 23 $ 48 $ 48 Funded Ratio 96.4% 92.6% 92.6% Normal Cost Rate 16.41% 16.82% 16.82% UAL Amortization Rate 0.91% 2.30% 2.68% Actuarial Contribution Rate 17.32% 19.12% 19.50% Required Contribution Rate 18.76% 19.26% 19.50% Employer Contribution Rate 9.38% 9.63% 9.75% Employee Contribution Rate 9.38% 9.63% 6.75% Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. 39

40 Cost Impact: Protection Occupation (Using 6/30/16 Valuation) Before Changes Amortize Changes Over 30 Years Amortize Changes Over 20 Years Actuarial Liability ($M) $1,417 $1,471 $1,471 Actuarial Value of Assets ($M) $1,430 $1,430 $1,430 Unfunded Actuarial Liability ($M) $ (13) $ 41 $ 41 Funded Ratio 100.9% 97.2% 97.2% Normal Cost Rate 15.99% 16.37% 16.37% UAL Amortization Rate 0.00% 0.66% 0.85% Actuarial Contribution Rate 15.99% 17.03% 17.22% Required Contribution Rate 16.40% 17.03% 17.22% Employer Contribution Rate 9.84% 10.22% 10.33% Employee Contribution Rate 6.56% 6.81% 6.89% Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. 40