Projections for Palmerston North

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1 1 Projections for Palmerston North Draft for consultation Prepared by: Peter Crawford Jason Pilkington Kirsten Wierenga July 2008

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3 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Introduction 6 Overview of Population and Labour Force Projections 7 1. Population Projections a. Past and current population trends 9 b. Statistics New Zealand subnational population projections Employment Projections a. Past and current employment trends 14 b. Statistics New Zealand national labour force projections c. Palmerston North medium employment growth projections d. Summary of employment projections by sector Household Projections a. Statistics New Zealand subnational family and household projections Changing faces in Palmerston North a. Ethnicity 24 b. Faces in the workforce 26 c. Ageing workforce 28 d. Early childhood 29 e. Dependence 30 f. Where have we come from and how likely are we to move around? g. What will our families look like? Manawatu Regional Tourism Forecasts Alternative Scenarios Appendix 1: Sector employment growth assumptions for Palmerston North - medium growth projections Appendix 2: Summary of employment growth by industry 2000 to Appendix 3: Alternative employment growth projections 53

4 3 Executive Summary Population and labour force projections are developed at a local and national level to assist communities, businesses and central and local government in planning for the future. The projections were initially developed to guide the industrial land study but are also relevant to the development of the Councils 10-year long-term plan ( ) and are also of assistance to longer-term planning by the business and community sector. The growth projections are not forecasts but instead are projections of the growth that might be achieved if certain conditions are met. Key assumptions used in the projections are based on assumptions for future changes in the fertility rate (the number of births per female), life expectancy, net migration levels and labour force participation rates. One of the strengths of recent economic growth in the city has been the range of sectors which are contributing to employment growth. The four key sectors which are expected to contribute the most to employment growth in the city over the next 25 years are health, retail, business services, transport /wholesaling. Increasing urbanisation continues to be a major driver of the growth in these sectors but there are also a range of different growth drivers for each sector. This offers greater certainty that growth to the levels projected is achievable because the city has become less dependant on a narrow range of key sectors to sustain growth. The growth sectors offer a wide range of career opportunities with job growth expected in both low skilled and highly skilled positions. The education, research and defence sectors are likely to decline in importance in the city economy and yet they will still remain key sectors for the city economy. They offer a degree of stability for the city economy because they are relatively independent of economic cycles or may even operate in a counter cyclical role. For example, tertiary enrolments may decline during periods of high economic growth, when high demand for labour encourages young people to go into work directly from school rather than into full-time tertiary study. The Defence Forces may also find staff easier to attract and retain during weaker periods of economic growth. The projections for demographic change suggest significant change is ahead for the city, with an aging population and workforce and rapid change of the ethnic composition of the city population. Major changes in the ethnicity of the Palmerston North City population are already taking place and these are likely to accelerate through to Population projected to increase by 15,100 to 2031 Statistics New Zealand has projected population growth of 15,100 between 2006 and 2031 (medium growth projection), with the city population reaching 93,600 by The Department s population projections show continuing urban drift, with large cities growing faster than smaller cities and rural towns. The medium growth projections for Palmerston North are slightly lower than the national average but are much higher than other regional cities that are smaller than Palmerston North. The recent population growth projections are higher than the projections released by Statistics New Zealand in 2005, with the recent increase in the fertility rate the main contributor to the higher growth projections for the city.

5 4 Our population is aging but not as quickly as other parts of New Zealand The city will see an aging in its population, with significant growth in the number of people aged 65 and over. However the impact of the aging population on the city is going to be less than in most areas of New Zealand. The city has a young population with a median age of 32.1 in the 2006 Census (the national median age was 35.8). The median age is expected to have risen by 4.3 years to 36.4 by 2031 while the national median age will have risen by 5.1 years to 40.9 by Our population in 2031 will be only slightly older than the current New Zealand population. Strong employment growth is projected Employment has grown strongly in Palmerston North since 2000 and has increased faster in the city than at the national level. Employment growth projections for the city are very strong, with the provisional medium growth projections suggesting employment may rise by 25,000 (55% increase) between 2006 and Key growth sectors over the next 25 years are likely to be: Health and community services includes hospitals, specialist medical services and care for the aged. Retail trade. Property and business services includes scientific research, specialist business services and cleaning services. Wholesale trade and transport and storage. The projected employment growth is 10,000 higher than population growth over the same time period. This will require a further increase in labour force participation rates and an increase in the number people commuting to work from outside the city. Only Auckland and Wellington cities have higher employment to population ratios. Between 2000 and 2007 the city achieved employment growth of 8,920 while the population increased by 3,700. Employment growth over this seven year period was therefore 5,200 higher than population growth. Changing Faces The city has already experienced rapid change in the ethnicity of its population and this trend is likely to accelerate over the period to Major changes will be significant increases in the proportion of Maori and Asians living in the city. In 2006 the Maori population represented 26% of the city population in the 0 14 age group while the overall percentage of Maori in the city was 15%. Household projections reflect smaller households The average household size in Palmerston North is set to decline from 2.6 to 2.4 between 2006 and the average household size for all of New Zealand is 2.7. The family household is by far the most common household type for both Palmerston North City and all of New Zealand accounting for 71% of all New Zealand households in 2001 and 68% of households in Palmerston North. There is also an increasing number of couples choosing not to have children or choosing to have children later in life. This is the fastest growing family type and along with the ageing population is contributing to the number of one-person households. One-person

6 5 households in the City will account for a greater share of households in 2021 compared with The average annual growth in the number of households between 2001 and 2021 is projected to be 1.0%. The projections suggest this growth rate will remain stable throughout the period covered by the projections even though population growth is expected to slow. Tourism and visitor numbers continue to increase Total annual visits to the Manawatu Regional Tourism Organisation (RTO) 1 area are forecast to rise from 2.4 million in 2006 to 2.5 million in 2013, an increase of 0.5% per annum. Visitor nights are forecast to rise by 1.6% per annum while day visits are forecast to grow by 0.4% annually. Domestic visitor nights are forecast to increase by 0.6% per annum while international visitor nights are forecast to increase by 3.5%. Sustainability is increasingly in focus The key sustainability issue for the city is increasing the level of population growth to meet the potential for employment growth in the city. If faster population growth is not achieved there will need to be further growth in commuting to the city from rural areas and small towns and communities outside the city boundary to sustain the employment growth projections. 1 Refer to page for more information on the definitions of visitors and tourists and the region covered by the Manawatu RTO

7 6 Introduction This report has been prepared to bring together recent Council analysis on economic and demographic trends in Palmerston North as well as a range of demographic and employment projections for the city. There are limitations to the extent to which past trends can point to future economic growth and demographic trends but it is clear the city is already undergoing significant demographic change. There is also strong evidence that the recent economic strength can be maintained if the city continues to encourage employment and population growth in the city and the surrounding region. Chapter 1 provides an overview of recent population growth in the city and the Statistics New Zealand projections for growth to There have been times recently of significant differences in population and employment growth and both indicators are important as measure of the health of the city. Chapter 2 provides a brief analysis of employment trends in the city since February Earlier employment data is available for the city but the employment count measure used in earlier data is not comparable with the current Statistics New Zealand business enterprise data, which is available from A brief overview is provided on recent Statistics New Zealand national labour force projections to 2061 and an analysis of the projections prepared by the Council for employment growth through to These projections are provisional and input is being sought from city employers on the validity of the projections prepared. The Chapter 3 data on household projections will be updated by Statistics New Zealand in 2009 using the 2006 Census data as a base. The current projections suggest that growth in the number of households in the city will remain stable even though population growth is expected to slow, with household size declining over the period to The recent rise in fertility has resulted in increases to the population projections for the city but may contribute little to household growth over the next 25 years. Chapter 4 summarises the key demographic changes which are already taking place in the city and which will contribute to further change over the period to Updated projections will be released by Statistics New Zealand on 6 October The tourism forecasts overviewed in Chapter 5 are only available at a broader regional level but we know the city is a significant destination for day and overnight visitors to the Manawatu RTO. The growth in visitor numbers is projected to be slower than population growth in the city. A factor in this is the projected decline in the population of the remainder of the Manawatu-Wanganui region (when Manawatu District and Palmerston North City are excluded) and minimal population growth in the Taranaki and Hawkes Bay regions, all significant sources of day visitors to the city.

8 7 Overview of Population and Labour Force Projections The series covered in this document include projections for the total New Zealand population, local and regional populations, various ethnic groups, families and households, and the labour force. It is appropriate to draw attention to some of the constraints that apply to these series. Firstly, these demographic projections are neither predictions nor forecasts. They represent the statistical outcomes of various combinations of selected assumptions about future changes in various dynamics of population change. These assumptions are formulated from the latest demographic trends and patterns, as well as international experiences. The assumptions used for each set of projections are outlines in each section of the publication. Secondly, given the uncertainties about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration and their determinants, Statistics New Zealand derives a range of alternative demographic scenarios. However, because of space restrictions, the medium growth series has been used in the majority of the analysis and only brief comment is included on the high and low growth scenarios. In general, the chosen series conveys the broad features of likely future dynamics and patterns in Palmerston North. Thirdly, these projections do not take into account non-demographic factors such as war and catastrophe that may invalidate the projections. Population trends and patterns are monitored regularly and, when it is necessary, the projections are revised to incorporate new demographic evidence. A similar approach is taken with the Council 10-year plan, which is updated every three years In summary, the main prospects in the coming decades are for continuing low fertility, slower population growth, further gains in life expectancy, smaller households, increasing ethnic diversity, an ageing population, an older labour force, and a further concentration of population in the northern North Island. The Statistics New Zealand projections used in preparing this paper were: Subnational Population Projections: 2006 (base) 2031 released 3 December National Labour Force Projections: 2006 (base) 2061 released 6 May Subnational Family and Household Projections: 2001(base) 2021 update released 27 October National Ethnic Population Projections: 2006 (base) 2026 released 2 April Subnational ethnic projections will be released by Statistics New Zealand on 6 October and updated family and household projections using 2006 Census data are not likely to be released until The employment projections prepared for Palmerston North City have been based on employment change in the city over the period from 2000 to 2007 and analysis of whether similar levels of employment change are likely to continue over the period to

9 The employment projections have been prepared for employment at the 2- digit ANZSIC level. How Accurate are the Population Projections Produced by Statistics New Zealand? The recent report by Statistics New Zealand How Accurate are Population Projections? An evaluation of Statistics New Zealand population projections, offers the following conclusions: Projections for larger geographic areas have smaller relative errors than projections for smaller geographic areas. Projection uncertainty therefore increases for smaller regions and local authorities. Areas with the largest relative errors are generally those that have experienced the most rapid population change (either increase or decrease) and/or those that have experienced significant swings in net migration. The intercensal projections update, produced two years after the first set of projections, has been more accurate than the first set. The medium or mid-range projection has been more likely to under-project than over-project the population of geographic areas in New Zealand over the period of assessment ( ), although there is no inevitability about the future direction of errors. No regional council area was consistently under-projected or over-projected by the medium series. Among territorial authority areas, only Manukau was consistently under-projected and Opotiki consistently over-projected by the collective low medium-high series. The volatility of New Zealand s external migration balance appears to play an important role in projection accuracy. The and periods were high net migration periods by New Zealand standards and geographic areas were generally under-projected. In contrast, was a low net migration period and geographic areas were generally over-projected. The nature of the top-down approach, where national projections are prepared before subnational projections, means that national accuracy and subnational accuracy are correlated. Projections of deaths are more accurate than projections of births, while (net) migration is the most difficult component to either project or to formulate assumptions for future change. For projections by age, accuracy has generally been highest for ages 30 years and over. Accuracy for the youngest ages (0 14 years) and young adult ages (15 29years) has been lower, on average, reflecting fluctuations in births and migration at those ages, respectively. The projections do not take into account major events which may invalidate the projections. Major events include wars, catastrophes, government and business decisions, and institutional changes (e.g. armed forces, prisons, and universities) which are not known at the time of production. These events can significantly influence population dynamics at a national or local level. Over the period from 1991 to 2006 actual population growth in Palmerston North fell between the low and medium growth projections. Fluctuations in tertiary enrolments and net external migration appear to be the main contributors to variations in the growth rate for the city.

10 9 Population Projections Past and Current Population Trends Population growth in the city accelerated between 2001 and 2002 after a period of static population levels between 1994 and The annual contribution to the city population from natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) was between 500 and 600 over this period but net migration was negative. Variations in student enrolments at tertiary institutions in the city (Massey University, UCOL, IPC and English language providers) can have a significant impact on the resident population statistics as at 30 June each year. Changes in net migration to Australia and migration from Asia have had significant impacts on net migration, even at the national level. Figure 1 Figure Palmerston North City Natural Increase (Births less deaths) 80,000 Usually Resident Population of Palmerston North City , ,000 Number Population 72,500 70,000 67, December year (Source: Statistics New Zealand) 65, as at 31 March There was a slow but steady decline in the level of natural increase in the city until 2004, reflecting the national decline in fertility rates (the number of births per female) until that time but the fertility rate has risen strongly between 2004 and This has resulted in a significant adjustment to the long-term population growth projections for the city. A fall in student numbers at Massey and UCOL offset some of the rise in the birth rate, slowing population growth between 2004 and 2007, while prior to 2004, strong growth in student numbers was a major contributor to the stronger population growth in Palmerston North during that period. The estimated population of Palmerston North City was 78,800 at 30 June 2007, an increase of 300 people since 30 June This represents an increase of 0.4 percent, compared with the national increase of 1.0 percent over the same period. The revised June 2007 estimate was derived by updating the base population at 30 June 2006 for estimated births and deaths of New Zealand residents, net permanent and long-term migration, and estimated internal migration. Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections Statistics New Zealand alternative population projection series (designated low, medium and high) are produced for each local authority incorporating different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions reflecting each area's unique sociodemographic characteristics. The revised growth projections have been increased

11 10 from the earlier 2005 projections, mostly due to the recent increase in the fertility rate. The three projections are based on the following national population assumptions: Low population growth low fertility rate (1.7), high mortality rate (medium life expectancy in 2061 of 82 years for males and 86 years for females) and low net migration (net 5,000 positive annual gain). Medium population growth medium fertility rate (1.9), medium mortality rate (medium life expectancy in 2061 of 84.5 years for males and 88 years for females) and medium net migration (net 10,000 positive annual gain). High population growth high fertility rate (2.1), low mortality rate (medium life expectancy in 2061 of 87 years for males and 90 for females) and high net migration (net 15,000 positive annual gain). Table 1: Palmerston North Population Projections Population Growth Projections Projected 2031 Population Number Growth Number Annual Average Growth % Low population growth 83,600 5, Medium population growth 93,600 15, High population growth 103,900 25, (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Figure 3 120,000 Population Projections for Palmerston North 100,000 80,000 Population 60,000 40,000 High growth Medium growth Low growth Actual 20, (Source: Statistics New Zealand)

12 11 In the year ended March 2008 the national fertility rate had increased to 2.1, the medium age at death was 76 for males and 83 for females and net permanent and long-term migration was a positive gain of 4,678. The medium population growth projection for Palmerston North is only slightly below the national population growth projection of 0.8% per annum. The projections show further growth in the concentration of population in the Auckland region, which accounts for 62% of national population growth to The Bay of Plenty is the only region, apart from Auckland, which is projected to rise at a faster rate than the national growth rate. The Manawatu-Wanganui region is projected to grow by just 6,500 people even though Palmerston North is projected to increase by 15,100. Table 2: Region Territorial Authority Medium Population Growth Projections for Manawatu-Wanganui Current Population (2006) Projected Population (2031) increase (number) Annual Average growth (%) Ruapehu District 14,000 11,100-2, Wanganui District 43,800 40,400-3, Rangitikei District 15,100 12,100-3, Manawatu District 29,000 32,500 3, Palmerston North City 78,500 93,600 15, Tararua District 18,100 16,700-1, Horowhenua District 30,600 29,200-1, Manawatu-Wanganui Region 229, ,900 6, New Zealand 4,184,600 5,089, , (Source: Statistics New Zealand) In most regions the growth projections for major urban centres are generally higher than for the surrounding rural regions, although Canterbury is the exception to this, with strong annual population growth of 1.7% (18,400 people increase) projected for Selwyn District and 1.5% annual growth (20,000 people increase) for Waimakariri District. Some of the major urban areas outside the Auckland region are projected to increase above the 0.7% annual average growth rate projected for Palmerston North while most are lower. The Statistics New Zealand population projections show large cities growing faster than smaller cities and rural towns.

13 12 Table 3: Medium Population Growth Projections for Selected Territorial Authorities Territorial Authority Current Population (2006) Projected Population (2031) increase (number) Annual Average growth (%) Tauranga 106, ,800 48, Hamilton 134, ,400 43, Kapiti Coast 47,500 60,700 13, Wellington 187, ,700 44, Palmerston North 78,500 93,600 15, Whangarei 76,500 91,600 15, Christchurch 361, ,100 60, Hastings 73,200 81,100 7, Nelson 44,300 49,300 5, Dunedin 122, ,000 6, Porirua 50,600 53,400 2, Rotorua 68,100 71,300 3, Lower Hutt 101, ,000 2, Napier 56,800 57, New Plymouth 71,100 72,200 1, Wanganui 43,800 40,400-3, Invercargill 51,600 45,900-5, (Source: Statistics New Zealand)

14 13 Projected Population Structure Changes One of the major factors contributing to the strength of the population projections for Palmerston North is the low median age for the city population. In 2006 the median age in Palmerston North was 32.1 and this is projected to rise to 36.4 by 2031 (4.3 years increase). The median age for New Zealand in 2006 was 35.8 and is projected to rise to 40.9 by 2031 (5.1 years increase). Figure 4 Figure 5 Palmerston North Population by Age Group 2006 Palmerston North Population by Age Group % % % % % % % % (Source: Statistics New Zealand) The city is also forecast to have positive net migration growth over the forecast period. Projected population growth in Palmerston North in the 0 14 and age groups is higher than the national average while projected population growth in the and the 65 and over age groups is lower than the national average. Table 4: Change in population by age group Projected population Palmerston North New Zealand increase by age group % % 0 14 age group age group age group and over age group Total population (Source: Statistics New Zealand)

15 14 Employment Projections Past and Current Employment Trends Employment has grown strongly in Palmerston North since 2000 and has significantly outpaced population growth over this period. While population growth in the city has been weaker than national population growth, employment has been increasing faster in the city than at the national level. National employment growth in percentage terms has been much faster than population growth (21.7% and 10.4% respectively) but absolute employment growth of 343,000 has been lower than total population growth of 397,300. In contrast employment growth in Palmerston North of 8,920 between 2000 and 2007 has been significantly higher than population growth of only 3,700. Figure 6 Figure 7 Employment Growth Palmerston North City Employment and Population Growth ,500 Index: February 2000 = Palmerston North New Zealand Annual Growth 2,000 1,500 1, Employment Population February (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Factors which have contributed to local employment rising faster than population are: 1. An increase in workforce participation in the city. a. Beneficiary numbers in Palmerston North declined from 7,540 in March 2001 to 5,406 in March 2008, a decline of 2,134 b. The city has seen above average increases in workforce participation by older people in the city, particularly those aged 65 years and over. Between 2001 and 2006 employment in the age group increased from 1,350 to 1,977, an increase of 627 (46%) while employment in the 65 and over age group increased from 846 to 1,578, an increase of 732 (87%). Full-time employment for the 65 and over age group increased by 80%. 2. Significant growth in employment in the city for residents of the local authorities surrounding the city. 3. There has been a decline in the student population in the city in recent years so the overall population data has hidden some of the underlying growth in the city, with workers replacing some of the student population in the city.

16 15 Table 5: Key growth sectors between 2000 and 2007 were: Employment Sector Employment in February 2007 Change between Number Number % Health and Community Services 6,770 1, % Construction 3,540 1, % Retail Trade 6,210 1, % Property and Business Services 5,540 1, % Personal and Other Services 2, % Wholesale Trade 2, % Transport and Storage 1, % Other sectors 18,270 1, % Total Palmerston North City 46,540 8, % (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Figure 8: Distribution of Employment in Palmerston North (February 2007) Palmerston North Employment (employee count - February 2007) Personal and Other Services 5% Cultural and Recreational Services 2% Health and Community Services 15% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1% Manufacturing 8% Construction 8% Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 0% Wholesale Trade 6% Education 12% Retail Trade 13% Government Administration and Defence 8% Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 5% Mining not Property and Business Services 12% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Finance and Insurance 2% Transport and Storage 3% Communication Services 1%

17 16 Figure 9: Distribution of Employment in New Zealand (February 2007) New Zealand Employment (employee count - February 2007) Education 8% Government Administration and Defence 8% Property and Business Services 13% Personal and Other Services 4% Cultural and Recreational Services 2% Health and Community Services 10% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1% Mining 0% Manufacturing 13% Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 0% Construction 6% Wholesale Trade 6% Finance and Insurance 3% Communication Services 1% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Retail Trade 12% Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 5% Transport and Storage 4% Table 6: Comparison of Palmerston North and National Employment Employment Sector Palmerston North New Zealand % % Health and Community Services 15% 10% Education 12% 8% Construction 8% 6% Retail Trade 13% 12% Personal and Other Services 5% 4% Property and Business Services 12% 13% Wholesale Trade 6% 6% Transport and Storage 3% 4% Other sectors 26% 37% Total 46, % (Source: Statistics New Zealand)

18 17 Statistics New Zealand National Labour Force Projections The national labour force is projected to increase from 2,240,000 in 2006 to 2,650,000 by 2031, an increase of 410,000 jobs (18.3%). The national population is projected to rise by 905,100 over that time. The medium labour force projection is based on assumptions of medium fertility rate (1.9), medium mortality rate (medium life expectancy in 2061 of 84.5 years for males and 88 years for females), medium net migration (net 10,000 positive annual gain) and medium increase in labour force participation. The average working life for males to age 80 years is projected to rise from 45.3 years in 2006 to 47.0 years in 2016 and then to remain constant after The average working life for females to age 80 years is projected to rise from 36.9 years in 2006 to 39.2 years in 2016 and then also remain constant. The medium age of the labour force is projected to rise from 40.4 years in 2006 to 42.1 years by Palmerston North Employment Growth Projections Some of the factors driving the strong employment growth in Palmerston North over the period from 2000 to 2007 are likely to continue to drive further economic and population growth in the city and will also contribute to stronger population growth in the local authorities close to Palmerston North. As noted earlier, Statistics New Zealand medium growth population projections suggest the city may reach a population of 93,600 by 2031, an increase of 15,100 (19.2%) from The medium growth employment projections prepared for the city suggest that employment could rise by 24,726 by 2031, a 53% increase from current employment levels. This is significantly higher than the medium national labour force projections released by Statistics New Zealand. The Department s medium growth population projection is for a 21.6% increase from 2006 to 2031 while the labour force is projected to rise by 18.3% between 2006 and One of the key assumptions in these projections will be that the labour force participation rate for the population aged 65 and over will remain constant after The projected employment growth over the 25 years to 2031 is for the number of jobs to exceed population by 9,626 jobs over the same time period. This will require a further increase in labour force participation rates and an increase in the number people commuting to work from outside the city. An increase in participation rates could be achieved by: 1. Further reduction in beneficiary numbers. Beneficiary numbers in Palmerston North declined from 7,540 in March 2001 to 5,406 in March 2008, a decline of 2,134. March 2008 beneficiary numbers were: Unemployment 925, Domestic purposes 5,686, Sickness 2,396 and Invalids 6, Tertiary student numbers increasing more slowly than population growth. 3. An increase in labour force participation by people aged 65 and over. 4. Further increases in female labour force participation.

19 18 Between 2000 and 2007 the city achieved employment growth of 8,920 while the population increased by 3,700. Employment growth over this seven year period was 5,200 higher than population growth. Major growth sectors for the city are likely to be health services and care for the aged, property and business services, transport and storage and wholesale and retail trade. Table 7: Palmerston North Employment Projections Population Growth Projections Projected 2031 Employment Number Growth Number Annual Average Growth % Low employment growth 56,219 10, Medium employment growth 71,266 25, High employment growth 77,602 31, (Source: Statistics New Zealand) High Growth Employment Projections The high growth employment projections are based on Statistics New Zealand high growth projection for estimated population growth in Palmerston North City of 1,016 people per annum over the period from The high growth projection would result in the city population reaching 103,900 by 2031, an increase of 25,400 people. If employment growth over the period from 2000 to 2007 is used to forecast future employment growth this would result in employment growing by 1,271 jobs per annum, an increase of 31,772 over the 25 year time frame. Over the period from 2006 to 2031 the working age population (aged 15 years and older) is estimated to rise by a faster rate than total population growth. However the share of people in the 65 and over age group who remain in the workforce will increase significantly and it is difficult to estimate how much their participation in the workforce will increase over this time. Medium Growth Employment Projections The medium growth employment projections are based on the level of employment growth achieved over the period from 2000 to These have been adjusted using the Statistics New Zealand medium population projections, which suggest a slowing in the city population growth rate over the period from 2006 to The projections suggest employment growth of 1,017 jobs per annum, an increase of 25,438 jobs between 2006 and 2031, an annualised increase of 1.8%. The projections were prepared at an industry level, with an analysis of whether each sector was likely to:

20 19 a. Achieve a similar level of employment growth to that achieved between 2000 and For example, the very strong growth achieved in the construction sector between 2000 and 2007 is not likely to be repeated in future years. b. Achieve faster growth than population growth. Factors that will contribute to this are: a. Service sector providers are becoming more concentrated in larger urban areas. Some services are provided to just the local community while other services are provided to a much wider regional area. b. The health sector has experienced an expansion in services offered and significant increases in funding and is growing faster than population growth. c. The aged care sector will grow because of the ageing of New Zealand s population and is a labour intensive sector. c. Be affected by external factors such as ongoing removal of tariff protection (manufacturing sector). d. Increase at a similar level to population growth. e. Remain stable or decline, such as agriculture, which is experiencing reductions in the available land in the city but an increase in contracting services to surrounding regions. Low Growth Employment Projections The low growth employment projections are based on Statistics New Zealand low growth projection for estimated population growth in Palmerston North City of 204 people per annum over the period from , an annualised growth rate of 0.3%. The low growth projection would result in the city population reaching 83,600 by 2031, an increase of 5,100 people. The projections assume that employment will continue to increase faster than population growth, with employment projected to increase by 10,389 between 2006 and Summary of Employment Projections by Sector Key growth sectors over the next 25 years are likely to be: 1. Health and Community Services. Activity in the sector is becoming more concentrated in Palmerston North, with more people travelling from surrounding regions to access specialised services in the city. Employment in accommodation for the aged increased by 40% between 2000 and In February 2007 the health and community services sector contributed 15% of total employment in the city (10% nationally). 2. Retail Trade. The city now has a 2.6% share of national retail trade sales (1.9% of the national population) and is capturing a greater share of retail sales in the region. Current high levels of retail construction in the city will add to this growth in the future.

21 20 3. Personal and Other Services. This is a diverse classification covering police, corrective centres, fire brigade, religious organisations, interest groups, hair dressing and beauty salons, funeral directors, gardening services and waste disposal services. 4. Property and Business Services. The sector covers a wide range of services and activity, from scientific research and consultancy services to cleaning services. Activity in these areas is becoming more concentrated in Palmerston North from the surrounding regions 5. Wholesale Trade and Transport and Storage. Employment in the transport and storage sector increased by 39% between 2000 and 2007 while national employment growth was 17%. Wholesale trade sector employment increased by 25% over the same period. Road, rail and air services are all concentrated in Palmerston North. More detail is included on the sector projections is included in Appendix 1. Table 8 ANZSIC Palmerston North City - Medium Employment Growth Projections (Based on estimates for employment growth by ANZSIC Division 2) Growth Annual average Number % growth rate Health and Community Services 6,630 12,701 6, % 2.6% Retail Trade 6,020 10,438 4, % 2.2% Property and Business Services 5,750 9,525 3, % 2.0% Personal and Other Services 2,050 4,526 2, % 3.2% Wholesale Trade 2,660 4,591 1, % 2.2% Government Administration and Defence 3,750 5,287 1, % 1.4% Transport and Storage 1,180 2,612 1, % 3.2% Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 2,340 3,638 1, % 1.8% Education 5,490 6,549 1, % 0.7% Construction 3,300 4, % 1.0% Manufacturing 3,610 4, % 0.5% Cultural and Recreational Services 1,010 1, % 0.9% Finance and Insurance % 0.3% Mining % 1.8% Electricity, Gas and Water Supply % -2.4% Communication Services % -0.5% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing % -1.0% Total Employment 45,830 71,266 25, % 1.8% Population (Medium Growth) 78,500 93,600 15, % 0.7% Employment share of population 58.4% 76.1%

22 21 Household Projections Statistics New Zealand Subnational Family and Household Projections Palmerston North City s estimated number of households totaled 28,000 at 30 June The City s household projections for the period from 1996 to 2021 (2001 base) are based at five-yearly intervals. Updated projections for the city using 2006 Census data will not be available until It is not expected the recent rise in fertility rates will significantly affect the medium term projections for the number of households but is likely to change the projections for average household size. Household numbers should not be confused with building activity or dwelling numbers. Households refer to private dwellings that are usually occupied 2 by a person or group of people. Statistics New Zealand define a household as being one person usually living alone, or two or more people usually living together and sharing facilities (eg. eating facilities, cooking facilities, bathroom and toilet facilities, a living area) in a private dwelling. The definition for households therefore excludes nonprivate dwellings, unoccupied dwellings 3 and dwellings which are not the usual residence of people (eg. holiday homes, second homes). Table 9: Projected Households of Palmerston North Area Palmerston North City : (2001 base) Change Series Number % High 30,300 32,400 34,800 37,400 9, Medium 26,700 28,000 29,600 31,000 32,600 34,200 6, Low 28,900 29,600 30,400 31,200 3, Source: Statistics New Zealand (Subnational Family and Household Projections (2001 (Base) 2021) - released in October 2005) Table 10: 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings (Changes in Occupied Dwelling Count for Palmerston North City 1996, 2001 & 2006) 1996 Occupied Dwelling Count 2001 Occupied Dwelling Count Increase or Decrease Increase or Decrease Occupied Dwelling Count Number % Number % 25,362 26,424 27,849 1, , Source: Statistics New Zealand (2006 Census of Population and Dwellings - Final count of population and dwelling number for regions, cities and districts) 2 A dwelling is defined as occupied if it is occupied at midnight on the night of the Census or occupied at any time during the 12 hours following midnight on the night of the Census unless the occupant(s) completed a questionnaire at another dwelling during that period. 3 A dwelling is defined as unoccupied if it is unoccupied at all times during the 12 hours following midnight on the night of the Census and suitable for habitation.

23 22 The number of dwellings counted as being occupied within Palmerston North City in the 2006 Census was 27,849 and unoccupied as being 1,662. This gives an occupancy rate for the city of 94 percent. For New Zealand as a whole, there were 1,478,709 occupied dwellings and 159,276 unoccupied dwellings counted giving an occupancy rate of 90 percent. It is also interesting to note that at the time of the 2006 Census, Palmerston North City had 189 dwellings under construction, compared to 13,560 for New Zealand as a whole. Table 11 provides information relating to projected families and households by type under a medium series for Palmerston North City. The average household size is set to decline from 2.6 to 2.4 between 2006 and the average household size for all of New Zealand is The family household is by far the most common household type for both Palmerston North City and all of New Zealand accounting for 71% of all New Zealand households in 2001 and 68% of households in Palmerston North. There is also an increasing number of couples choosing not to have children or choosing to have children later in life. This is the fastest growing family type and along with the ageing population is contributing to the number of oneperson households. One-person households in the City will account for a greater share of households in 2021 compared with Table 11: Projected Families and Households by Type (Medium Series) for Palmerston North City : 2001 (base) Year at 30 June Couple without children Family Type Twoparent Oneparent Total Family Household Type Other multiperson Oneperson Total Average Household Size ,500 7,800 3,900 19,300 18,900 2,600 6,600 28, ,200 7,900 4,200 20,200 19,800 2,700 7,200 29, ,000 7,600 4,300 20,900 20,300 2,800 7,800 31, ,100 7,200 4,400 21,700 21,100 2,900 8,600 32, ,000 6,900 4,600 22,500 21,900 2,900 9,400 34, Source: Statistics New Zealand (Subnational Family and Household Projections (2001 (Base) 2021) - released in October 2005) Table 12 and Figure 10 provide information relating to projected population and household change within Palmerston North City. Population growth is expected to slow over the next 25 years but household growth is not expected to change because of the significant growth in the number of older people during the period to Table 12: Projected Population and Household Change Period Population Change Household Change ,600 1, ,300 1, ,000 1,600 (1) Medium series of the subnational population projections, 2006 (base) 2031, released December (2) Medium series of the subnational family and household projections, 2001 (base) 2021 update, released October From Statistics New Zealand publication entitled QuickStats About Palmerston North City 2006 Census.

24 23 Table 4 (page 13) notes that the population in the 0 14 age group is expected to increase by only 3.2% between 2006 and 2031 while the number of people aged 65 and over will increase by 96.7%, contributing to strong household growth over this period. Figure 10: Projected Population and Household Change 4,000 Number 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Population change (medium series) Household change (medium series) (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Although houses are being built, this may not translate into more people residing in an area due to a number of factors, including fewer people per household on average, the building of holiday homes, and new buildings replacing demolished homes (ie. household growth does not necessarily grow at the same linear rate as population). Statistics New Zealand s family and household projections indicate that households are growing faster than population and this is certainly the case for Palmerston North City. It is interesting to note that one of the major trends relates to larger houses, while paradoxically the other is a trend to less people living in the average household. Figure 11: Projected household and population growth 1.5% Actual and projected household and population growth (medium growth projections) 1.0% Annual growth rate 0.5% Annual Household Growth Annual Population Growth 0.0% -0.5% Population estimates and employment data are available annually to 2007 while the household data is only available every five years from the Census (Source: Statistics New Zealand)

25 24 Changing Faces in Palmerston North Ethnicity Palmerston North has a slightly less ethnically diverse population than other major city centres in the country. However, ethnicity has changed significantly since 2001, with a 20% increase in the Maori population between 2001 and The Maori population in the city is now higher than the national average. Currently the four major ethnic groups are as follows: Table 13: Ethnicity by age group, 2006 Census Ethnic Group 0 14 age age 65 and over Total group group age group Population European and other 63% 75% 93% 71% Maori 26% 14% 3% 15% Asian 4% 8% 3% 7% Pacific 7% 3% 1% 4% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) The ethnic population projections prepared by the Palmerston North City Council have been drawn from national ethnic projections prepared by Statistics New Zealand, the Statistics New Zealand medium population projections and an analysis of ethnic change in the City using the 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census data. Statistics New Zealand will be releasing city level projections on 6 October and the document will be updated once these projections are available. Figure 12: Ethnic Population Projections to ,000 Ethnic Population Projections to ,000 Number 40,000 30,000 European Māori Pacific peoples Asian 20,000 10, (Source: Statistics New Zealand, Palmerston North City Council) 5 It may be that the high numbers of Maori employed at Military Camp at Linton are feeding into the high growth rate over this period as they complete their term in the army they stay in the City and contribute to the various industries in Palmerston North

26 25 The projections suggest Palmerston North will continue to become more ethnically diverse in the future. The European (includes the New Zealander category) ethnic group currently makes up 71% of the total population. This is expected to drop to 64% by 2026 if national ethnic population projections are used for the city. The fastest growing of the four major ethnicities in the City will likely be Maori and Asian, followed by Pacific peoples. In % of the Palmerston North City population is projected to be Maori, and 12% Asian Asian being the fastest growing at 4.3% increase per year. 5% of the total population is expected to be Pacific Ethnic share European (64%) Maori (17%) Asian (12%) Pacific (5%) The number of people identifying themselves as two or more ethnic categories is also projected to increase significantly. This is a blunt indication of the levels of interrelational ethnic integration, and we will likely see more faces in the City that display more than one ethnic characteristic in the future. Maori and Pacific people s population growth rates are primarily sustained by higher birth rates. Asian growth in the City however is primarily sustained by immigration. Therefore actual population numbers of these ethnic cohorts in the future will be affected by different factors. This is shown in the graph below. Figure 13: Ethnicity Projections Versus Actual for 2006 Census Ethnicity Projections Versus Actuals for ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Mäori Asian Pacific (Source: Statistics New Zealand) 2006 Projections 2006 actuals The number of actual Asians in the City in 2006 was significantly lower 6 than earlier projections because the primary factor is not birth rate but immigration. 6 A decrease of about 900 people was experienced. This is also heavily influenced by international student numbers at Massey University, UCOL and IPC.

27 26 For the Maori population, numbers will be primarily affected by any changes in birth over death replacement, and/or changes in migration levels to the larger city centres or other countries. This will be similar for Pacific peoples, too. There are also a growing number of refugees entering the City to live, though exact numbers are not available. Palmerston North will likely continue to promote itself as a refugee friendly environment. However, once refugees are here there is no guarantee that they will stay in the City, and they may move to regions that have a stronger ethnic presence and are more representative of their ethnicity. Therefore the City will need to establish itself as a base for refugees if it seeks to retain them. Refugees come to the country with nothing in the way of assets or savings, and often their skills base is limited or not relevant to the New Zealand environment. Palmerston North, like Hamilton, is suited to refugees because of its industry types combined with its affordability the combination of which is well suited for those looking for work and getting a foothold in the housing/savings market. Palmerston North also has a university and excellent educational environment which offers opportunities to refugees. This will likely mean an increase in the number of people identified as other by Statistics NZ in the City. Currently our most diverse suburbs are Highbury, Awapuni and Roslyn. Figure 14: Ethnicity in Highbury, 2006 Census Highbury Maori 26% Pacific 10% Asian 5% Middle Eastern/Latin American/ African 1% European/New Zealander 58% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Faces in the Workforce In 2006 the European ethnicity made up 78% of the total workforce in Palmerston North (the Census workforce data only applies to residents of Palmerston North and not to the residents of surrounding local authorities who commute to work in Palmerston North).

28 27 Figure 15: Palmerston North Workforce, 2006 Census Palmerston North Workforce 2006 Maori 12% European 78% Pacific Peoples 3% Asian 7% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) In the future the European population will age as the baby boomers who were born during high fertility period in the 1950 s and 60 s begin to retire. Their children, who are experiencing low fertility rates, will be unable to replace their numbers. There will therefore be less younger people of the European/Pakeha ethnicity in the City. Not all ethnicities in the City are experiencing low birth rates like the European/Pakeha, however. Maori and Pacific peoples continue to experience high birth rates. Asians, while generally having low birth rates, have their numbers bolstered by immigration. Therefore, we will see the proportion of year-old- European/Pakeha in the workforce age shrink significantly relative to other ethnicities. Figure 16: Ethnicity of the Palmerston North Population Aged years (2006) Palmerston North Population Aged years 2006 European and other 75% Maori 14% Asian 8% Pacific 3% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) By 2026, on current projections for the City, we can expect to see only 61% European ethnicity in the age category. Maori will be 18%, Asian 16% and Pacific peoples over 5%. The proportions in the total workforce, including the over

29 28 65 age group are more difficult to predict. Future significant growth in workforce participation rates among the 65 and over age group will slow the decline in the share of the European ethnic group in the workforce. Figure 17: Ethnicity of the Palmerston North Population Aged years (2026) Palmerston North Population Aged years 2026 European and other 61% Maori 18% Pacific 5% Asian 16% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Ageing Workforce As the population ages so too will the workforce. More people in retirement age are tending to stay in the workforce, either in a part-time capacity or as full time staff. In 1996 the workforce participation rate for people aged 65 and over was 8% of the population in that age group but by 2006 the participation rate had increased to 18%. In 1996 the 65 and over age group were only 1.7% of the workforce in the city but by 2006 their share had increased to 4.0%. Between 2006 and 2026 the population aged 65 and over is predicted to increase by 74%. Further growth in the level of participation in employment for this age group could significantly increase their share of the total workforce in the city. This trend is likely to continue as the population ages, with the total number of people aged 65 and over in the workforce predicted to reach nearly 10% of the city workforce by Figure 18: Percentage of 65 and over age group in the workforce 10 Percent of 65 and over age group in the Workforce % share (Source: Statistics New Zealand)

30 29 Early Childhood As the birth rates for different ethnicities change we can expect to see not only a change in the workforce. The City can expect to see a major shift in the number and ethnicity of children in Palmerston North schools. Maori 0-14 year olds will be 35% of the total 0-14 year old population in schools by European/New Zealander will hold 40%, Pacific children will be approximately 12% and Asian children of the same age group will be at 13%. These are significant and unprecedented changes for Palmerston North. In tertiary education we can expect to see significant changes also. Maori and Pacific Island ethnicities are currently underrepresented in the tertiary sector. Maori and Pacific Island ethnicities are showing the fastest uptake of higher education having the fastest growth rate in the tertiary education sector. Figure 19: Palmerston North Population aged 0 14 years Palmerston North Population Aged 0-14 years 2026 European and other 40% Asian 13% Maori 35% Pacific 12% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Females participation in tertiary education has been increasing faster than for males and the proportion of females to males is projected to become more pronounced. Figure 20: Gender in tertiary education in Palmerston North Palmerston North: gender in tertiary education Males Females (Source: Statistics New Zealand)

31 30 Dependence The result of the projected population changes will be a significant increase in the number of European/Pakeha people living in retirement and/or over 65 years of age, and a workforce that are significantly more ethnically diverse supporting them. In other words, the European/Pakeha ethnicity will be increasingly dependent upon younger people from ethnicities different to their own. Health and Increasing Dependence: Older Persons The likelihood of disability in the City increases with age. In the MidCentral District there are 32,135 people with a disability of some sort. Disability increases significantly with age. 54% of people over 65 experience some form of disability. The likelihood of disability increases for the age group and again for those over 75 and is highest in those over 85 years of age. The speed and extent of the aging population will mean that the City will experience approximately 25% increase in disability by By 2061 life expectancy at birth is projected to be 88 years for females and 84.5 years for males. The ongoing increase in life expectancy also increases the number and likelihood of people suffering from disability in the elderly population. This will put increasing pressure on the public health system at a time when we will have slower growth in the number of young people coming through into the workforce. Figure 21: Average life expectancy in Palmerston North Average Life Expectancy: Male Female (Source: Statistics New Zealand) Where have we come from and how likely are we to move around? In 2001 over 13,000 people in Palmerston North had been born overseas (17% of the population). Pacific Island immigration to the City has remained fairly constant over the last 30 years. People who have moved to the city from the UK and Ireland make

32 31 up a high proportion of the overseas born people who have been living in the city for 20 years or more. Their percentage of overseas migrants is much lower for migrants who have been living in the city for a shorter period of time. This implies that the City had much heavier immigration inflows from these countries late last century than it is currently seeing. Immigration into the City from both Europe and the UK has slowed down to much lower levels. Immigration itself has not slowed, however. Asian immigration shows the reverse of this. This means that Asians are far more likely to have lived in the City for shorter periods than those immigrants from the United Kingdom. We also see that in terms of immigration to the city Asians have held the dominant share from the 1990 s onward. Figure 22: Years living in New Zealand Years in NZ less than to 9 10 to 19 over 20 (Source: Statistics New Zealand) UK and Ireland Asia Europe Pacific Islands At the time of the 2006 Census 6% of people living in Palmerston North had been living overseas five years ago. 60% of residents in Palmerston North had moved residence in the previous five years, either within New Zealand (including another residence in Palmerston North) or from overseas. Massey and Aokautere were the places that showed the highest population movement for those that had moved to the City from overseas. Palmerston North Central showed lower levels of movement for those coming from overseas, but had the highest levels of movement of internal migration. This is probably because those students coming from overseas are more likely to live in accommodation provided on campus, while those students coming from within New Zealand are more likely to find their own accommodation in the central City. We can infer from this that the Palmerston North Central area acts as a central conduit to the City, and that those coming here for the first time from within the country are most likely to stay in the Palmerston North Central area until they find more permanent accommodation. What will our Families look like? Palmerston North families, like those nationally, are changing. The traditional family structure has been the two parent family. The traditional two-parent nuclear family, however, is becoming only one amongst a number of options. The one parent family

33 32 is on the rise, it is no longer confined to the domain of the female and more males are becoming sole parents and more grandparents are becoming sole caregivers. There is a gradual increase in the proportion of single-parent father families relative to total single parent families. Though the female single parent family is still by far the dominant type of single parent family, there has been a 2% annual increase since 1976 in the number of males acting as a solo parent. There are also increasing numbers of couples choosing not to have children or choosing to have children later in life. This is the fastest growing family type and along with the aging population is contributing to the significant growth in the number of single person households. Figure Statistics New Zealand,

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