Poverty in Afghanistan
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1 Poverty in Afghanistan Socio-economic, demographic and geographic aspects of poverty from the NRVA Prepared by: Dean Jolliffe, Silvia Redaelli, and Andy Kotikula, World Bank, for the 7 th meeting of the Poverty Estimates Technical Review Committee April 21 st, 2010
2 INDEX PHYSICAL AND POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY OF POVERTY LABOR AND INCOME GENERATING ACTIVITIES DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF POVERTY TRENDS IN WELLBEING
3 SECTION II: PHYSICAL AND POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY OF POVERTY POVERTY IN AFGHANISTAN GEOGRAPHY OF POVERTY FOOD CONSUMPTION Main Index
4 Poverty in Afghanistan Poverty in Afghanistan, Poverty Indicators Estimate Std. Err. [95 percent C. I.] Poverty Headcount rate Poverty Gap Poverty Gap Squared Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
5 Poverty in Afghanistan Consumption (monthly per capita AFA) Pen's Parade Inverse CDF of consumption Proportion of Population Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
6 Poverty in Afghanistan Poverty rate, by season Quarter Poverty rate 1 Fall-harvest Winter 07/ Spring Summer Annual 36 comparability Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
7 Geography of Poverty Poverty rate by residence Poverty rate (%) [ 95 percent C.I. ] Urban Rural Kuchi Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
8 Geography of Poverty Poverty rate by region Region Poverty rate (%) Central 30.1 South 43.7 East 45.0 Northeast 36.8 North 39.5 West 35.4 Southwest 22.7 West Central 44.9 National 36 Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
9 Geography of Poverty Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
10 Geography of Poverty Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
11 Geography of Poverty Maps of poverty rate and terrain Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
12 Geography of Poverty Poverty rate by terrain types Elevation Relief roughness Low Medium High Very High Total Plain Plateau Mountain Total Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
13 Food Consumption Food consumption measures, by quarter Qtr Season Calorie deficiency rate (a) (%) Food poverty rate (b) (%) Food consumption (real terms) Food consumption (nominal terms) 1 Fall ,200 1,196 2 Winter ,122 3 Spring ,129 4 Summer ,183 Note: (a) consumption below 2100 calories; (b) Food consumption below the food poverty line Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
14 Food Consumption Food Consumption by quarter and area Food consumption (nominal) Food consumption (real) Daily per capita calorie intake less than 2100 calories Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty Food consumption below food poverty line quarter Full sample % 20% % 31% % 45% % 42% Rural and Kuchi % 21% % 34% % 48% % 46% Urban % 18% % 18% % 31% % 25%
15 Food Consumption Food Consumption by quarter and poverty status Food consumption (nominal) Food consumption (real) Calorie Deficiency Rate Food Poverty Rate quarter Full sample % 20% % 31% % 45% % 42% Poor % 70% % 75% % 77% % 75% Non-poor % 7% % 10% % 20% % 15% Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
16 Food Consumption Diversity of Food Consumption by Quarter and Poverty Food consumption score (WFP) Dietary diversity score 1 (FAO) Dietary diversity score 2 quarter Full sample Poor Non-poor Max Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
17 Food Consumption Calorie Share by Quarter Section 2: Physical and Political Geography of Poverty
18 SECTION III: LABOR AND INCOME GENERATING ACTIVITIES HOUSEHOLDS MAIN SOURCES OF INCOME LABOR MARKET CHARACTERISTICS CHILD LABOR Main Index
19 Households main sources of income Distribution of households by main income source (%) Rural Urban National Farming Home consumption Market Wage farm Wage nonfarm Trade, craft & transport Transfers Other Total Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
20 Households main sources of income No. Seasons households receive income from main activity Rural Urban National Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Farming - Home Consumption Farming - Market Wage Labor Agriculture Wage labor Non-Agric Trade, Craft & Transport Transfers Other Total Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
21 Households main sources of income Seasonality by main income source: Urban 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% FARMING - HOME CONSUMPTION FARMING - MARKET WAGE LABOR AGRICULTURE WAGE LABOR NON-AGRIC. TRADE, CRAFT & TRANSPORT TRANSFERS Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
22 Households main sources of income Seasonality by main income source: Rural 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% FARMING - HOME CONSUMPTION FARMING - MARKET WAGE LABOR AGRICULTURE WAGE LABOR NON-AGRIC. TRADE, CRAFT & TRANSPORT TRANSFERS Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
23 Households main sources of income Share of main income source to total income and number of income sources Main Income Source Share 1 st activity to total HH income Rural Average # of income sources Share 1 st activity to total HH income Urban Average # of income sources Farming - Home Consumption Farming - Market Wage Labor Agriculture Wage labor Non-Agric Trade, Craft & Transport Transfers Other Total Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
24 Households main sources of income Household level poverty rates by main source of income and area of residence Rural Urban National Farming - Home Consumption Farming - Market Wage Labor Agriculture Wage labor Non-Agric Trade, Craft & Transport Transfers Other Total Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
25 Households main sources of income Household level poverty rate by main income source and number of income generating activities: Rural FARMING - HOME CONSUMPTION FARMING - MARKET WAGE LABOR AGRICULTURE WAGE LABOR NON-AGRIC. TRADE, CRAFT & TRANSPORT TRANSFERS OTHER Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
26 Households main sources of income Household level poverty rate by main income source and number of income generating activities: Urban FARMING - HOME CONSUMPTION FARMING - MARKET WAGE LABOR AGRICULTURE WAGE LABOR NON-AGRIC. TRADE, CRAFT & TRANSPORT TRANSFERS OTHER Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
27 Labor market Characteristics Labor market indicators Rural Urban National Participation rate Employment -population ratio Unemployment rate Underemployment rate Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
28 Labor market Characteristics Participation rate by age, gender and area of residence [16-19] [20-29] [30-39] [40-49] [50-59] MALE URBAN MALE RURAL FEMALE URBAN FEMALE RURAL [60-69] [70+] Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
29 Labor market Characteristics Employment rate by age, gender and area of residence [16-19] [20-29] [30-39] [40-49] [50-59] MALE URBAN MALE RURAL FEMALE URBAN FEMALE RURAL [60-69] [70+] Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
30 Labor market Characteristics Household level participation and underemployment Quintiles of Real HH Participation Underemployment monthly expenditure Rate Rate 1 (poorest) (richest) Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
31 Labor market Characteristics Type of employment, by area of residence Rural Urban National Self-employed Unpaid family worker Employer Day laborer Salaried worker private sector Salaried worker in public sector Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
32 Labor market Characteristics Underemployment rate, by status in employment and area of residence RURAL URBAN SELF-EMPLOYED UNPAID FAMILY WORKER EMPLOYER DAY LABORER SALARIED WORKER SALARIED WORKER PRIVATE SECTOR IN PUBLIC SECTOR Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
33 Child Labor Child labor (%) by gender, poverty, and residence All Non-poor Poor Urban Rural Boys ** 10 26*** Girls *** 3 15*** Total *** 7 21*** Note: Asterisks indicate whether poor and non-poor and urban-rural differences are statistically significant (where * indicates p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, and *** p < 0.01) as estimated by design-adjusted Wald tests. Weighted estimates from a sample of 48,259 observations representing a population of 7.84 million children. Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
34 Child Labor Child labor (hours per week) All Nonpoor Poor Urban Rural Boys ** 42 28*** Girls * 11 14* Total ** 34 23*** Note: Asterisks indicate whether poor and non-poor and urban-rural differences are statistically significant (where * indicates p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, and *** p < 0.01) as estimated by design-adjusted Wald tests. Weighted estimates from a sample of 48,259 observations representing a population of 7.84 million children. Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
35 Child Labor Place of child labor (%) by gender and poverty Total Boy Girl At the household dwelling Plantation/farm/garden Shop/market/kiosk/restaurant Other Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
36 Child Labor Place of child labor (%) by gender and poverty status Non-poor Poor Boy Girl Boy Girl At the household dwelling Plantation/farm/garden Shop/market/kiosk/restaurant Other Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
37 Child Labor Place of child labor (%) by gender and residence Urban Rural Boy Girl Boy Girl At the household dwelling Plantation/farm/garden Shop/market/kiosk/restaurant Other Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
38 Child Labor Child activity (% ) by gender, poverty status, and residence Activity Poor Non-Poor Urban Rural Total Male Female Total Total work Total study Total work Total study Total work Total study Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
39 Child Labor Child activity (% ) by gender, poverty status, and residence Gender Activity Poor Non-oor Urban Rural Total Male Study only Work only Study and work Female Total Neither Study only Work only Study and work Neither Study only Work only Study and work Neither Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
40 Child Labor Hours per week spent on household chores All Non-poor Poor Urban Rural Boys *** Girls *** 13 13*** Total *** 12 11** Note: Household-level weights used. Asterisks indicate whether poor and non-poor and urban-rural differences are statistically significant (where * indicates p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, and *** p < 0.01) based on Wald tests adjusted for complex sample design. Estimates based on sample of 48,259 observations representing a population of 7.84 million children Section 3: Labor and Income Generating Activities
41 SECTION IV: DEMOGRAPHIC & SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF POVERTY DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ACCESS TO EDUCATION ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE DISABILITY AND POVERTY ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES Main Index
42 Demographic Characteristics Dependency Ratio and poverty Area Non-poor Poor Total Urban Rural Kuchi Total Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
43 Demographic Characteristics Poverty by age of household head Age of head (years) Poverty rate (%) 20 or less Over Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
44 Access to Education Poverty by education of household head Education level Poverty rate (%) No education 35.3 Primary school 31.0 Middle school 30.4 High school 21.9 Teacher college 22.9 University 8.7 Post-graduate 6.7 Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
45 Access to Education 2007/08 Net primary enrollment of children aged 6-9 PC quintile Boys Girls Total 1 (poorest) (richest) Total Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
46 Access to Education Age Specific Enrollment Rates Age Specific Enrollment Rates For Children Age in years All Female Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
47 Access to Education Primary enrollment of children aged 6-9 by poverty status and area of residence Non-poor Poor Boys Girls All Boys Girls All Urban Rural Kuchi Total Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
48 Access to Health Care 2007/08 Immunization Rates Non-poor Poor Total BCG OPV DPT Measles Full Immunization No Vaccination Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
49 Access to Health Care Antenatal care by consumption quintile PC quintile Antenatal care (%) 1 (poorest) (richest) 57 Total 37 Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
50 Access to Health Care Skilled birth attendance by consumption quintile PC quintile Skilled birth attendance (%) 1 (poorest) (richest) 49 Total 25 Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
51 Access to Health Care Types of providers by consumption quintile Type of provider Per capita consumption quintile assisting at last delivery Poorest Total No one Doctor Midwife Nurse CHW TBA Relative/neighbor/friend Other Total Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
52 Disability and Poverty Individual and Household Disability Rates Individual Household Poor Nonpoor Poor Nonpoor Mild Disability (0.1) (0.1)*** (0.6) (0.4) Severe Disability (0.1) (0.0)* (0.4) (0.3)* Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. Statistical differences in mean of prevalence rates between poor and nonpoor is tested. Significance levels based on adjusted Wald test: * p < 0.10; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01 Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
53 Disability and Poverty Individual and Household Disability Rates by Cause Individual Household Poor Nonpoor Poor Nonpoor Conflict/Accident (0.0) (0.0)*** (0.4) (0.3) Birth Defect (0.0) (0.0) (0.3) (0.2) Illness (0.1) (0.0)*** (0.4) (0.3) Old Age (0.1) (0.1)*** (0.4) (0.3)*** Note: Mild disability. Standard errors are in parentheses. Statistical differences in mean of prevalence rates between poor and nonpoor is tested. Significance levels based on adjusted Wald test: * p < 0.10; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01 Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
54 Disability and Poverty Severe Disability Prevalence by Cause, Poverty, Gender Male Female Poor Nonpoor Poor Nonpoor Conflict/Accident (0.1) (0.1)** (0.1) (0.0)* Birth Defect (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Illness (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)*** Old Age (0.1) (0.1)*** (0.1) (0.1)*** Note: Severe disability. Standard errors are in parentheses. Statistical differences in mean of prevalence rates between poor and nonpoor is tested. Significance levels based on adjusted Wald test: * p < 0.10; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01 Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
55 Disability and Poverty Disability Prevalence by Severity and Consumption Quintile Consumption Quintile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Individual Mild (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2)*** Severe (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)*** Household Mild (0.8) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)** Severe (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)*** Note: Per capita total consumption (price adjusted). Design-corrected standard errors are in parentheses. Asterisks indicate significance level of test of equal means across consumption quintiles (adjusted Wald tests, * p < 0.10; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01). Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
56 Disability and Poverty Severe Disability by Cause and Consumption Quintile Consumption Quintile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Conflict/Accident (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)* Birth Defect (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.3) Illness (0.6) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) (0.5)*** Old Age (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6)** Note: Household-level severe disability by causes. Per capita total consumption (price adjusted). Design-corrected standard errors are in parentheses. Asterisks indicate significance level of test of equal means across consumption quintiles (adjusted Wald tests, * p < 0.10; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01). Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
57 Access to Basic Services Profile of access to services of the poor % of HH with access to: Poor Non-poor Total Safe water Electricity Sanitary toilet Note: Sanitary toilet: flush and improved latrines; access to community health workers refers to community health workers in village Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
58 Access to Basic Services Access to safe drinking water (% of households) by quintile PC quintile Urban Rural Total 1 (poorest) (richest) Total Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
59 Access to Basic Services Avg. travel time to water source (minutes) PC quintile Urban Rural 1 (poorest) (richest) Total Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
60 Access to Basic Services Access to improved sanitation PC quintile Urban Rural Total 1 (poorest) (richest) Total Note: Types of toilet that are considered improved sanitation are improved latrine and flush latrine. Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
61 Access to Basic Services Access to electricity (any source) PC quintile Urban Rural Total 1 (poorest) (richest) Total Section 4: Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty
62 SECTION V: TRENDS IN WELLBEING SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF CHANGE IN WELLBEING CHANGE IN FOOD DEFICIENCY RATES OBJECTIVE MEASURES OF CHANGE Main Index
63 Trends in Subjective Assessment of Wellbeing Subjective Evaluation of Overall Economic Situation, NRVA 2007/ FALL WINTER SPRING SUMMER Assessment deteriorated over the year MUCH WORSE SLIGHTLY WORSE SAME SLIGHTLY BETTER MUCH BETTER Section 5: Trends in Wellbeing: NRVA 2005, 2007, 2007/2008
64 Trends in Subjective Assessment of Wellbeing Subjective Evaluation of Food Needs, NRVA 2007/ percent NEVER RARELY(1 TO3 TIMES) SOMETIMES(4 TO6 TIMES) OFTEN(A FEW TIMES EVERY MONTH) MOSTLY(THIS HAPPENS A LOT) QUARTER Section 5: Trends in Wellbeing: NRVA 2005, 2007, 2007/2008
65 Trends in Subjective Assessment of Wellbeing Subjective evaluation of HH s overall economic situation compared with last year SPRING 2007 SPRING 2008 SPRING 2007 SPRING 2008 Male Female Much worse Slightly worse Same Slightly better Much better Section 5: Trends in Wellbeing: NRVA 2005, 2007, 2007/2008
66 Trends in Subjective Assessment of Wellbeing Subjective Evaluation of Problems in Meeting household food needs last year SPRING 2007 SPRING 2008 SPRING 2007 SPRING 2008 Male Female Never Rarely (1 to 3 times) Sometimes (4 to 6 times) Often (a few times every month) Mostly (this happens a lot) Section 5: Trends in Wellbeing: NRVA 2005, 2007, 2007/2008
67 Non-Comparability of Poverty Estimates Problem 1: Seasonality Summer 2005, Spring 2007, NRVA2007/08 (4 seasons) seasonality Problem 2: Questionnaire Changed Affects both measures of total consumption and the poverty line NRVA 2005 NRVA 2007 /08 Sample size: number of households 30,000 21,000 Number of food items Number of non-food items Section 5: Trends in Wellbeing: NRVA 2005, 2007, 2007/2008
68 Inter-temporal Price Adjustment Summer 2005 Food Poverty Line (FPL) 2005, comparable foods Spring 2007 FPL-05 inflated to FPL-07 w Tornqvist index (weights: split shares) Spring 2008 FPL-07 inflated to FPL-08, Tornqvist, spatial adj based on NRVA07/08 price index Summer 2008 spring to summer adjustment follows NRVA07/08 spatial price index. Section 5: Trends in Wellbeing: NRVA 2005, 2007, 2007/2008
69 Trends in Food Deficiency FOOD DEFICIENCY RATE(%) SUMMER 2005 SPRING 2007 SPRING 2008 SUMMER 2008 Section 5: Trends in Wellbeing: NRVA 2005, 2007, 2007/2008
70 Trends in Food Deficiency Food Deficiency Trends, Season-on-season Change Time period Food deficiency rate (%) 95 percent C.I. SUMMER [ ] SUMMER [ ] SPRING [ ] SPRING [ ] Section 5: Trends in Wellbeing: NRVA 2005, 2007, 2007/2008
71 Trends in enrollment: children of age 6-9 enrolled and regularly attending school (%) Female Male Total / / /2008 Kuchi Rural Urban National
72 Trends in Literacy rate (individuals aged 15 to 24) Female Male Total / / /2008 Kuchi Rural Urban National
73 Trends in vaccination rate (%), of children months NRVA 05 NRVA 07/8 BCG Polio DPT Measles Full Immunization Note: Polio and DPT: at least 3 doses. Full immunization: all 4 vaccines.
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