Income Support for Vulnerable Groups: India

Transcription

1 Income Support for Vulnerable Groups: India Symposium on Income Security for Older Persons in South Asia February 27, 2017 Under the Aegis of UN-ESCAP Mukesh Anand National Institute of Public Finance and Policy New Delhi, India

2 Plan of the Presentation Brief characterisation of India income (average), population (old, young), workers, poor (slides 3-5) Social Security: Imperative, Objective, Management, Sustainability (slides 6-13) Social programmes (slides 14-17) Non-contributory (PAYG) pensions in the public sector (slides 18-19) Contributory provident fund and pensions applicability, coverage, beneficiaries, benefits (slides 20-23) Summary (slides 24-27) Suggestions for way forward (slide 28)

3 India: Income, Population National Income, Exchange Rate GDP at Current Prices, billion INR (trn USD) (1.82) (2.04) Population (million) Per Capita GDP in INR (USD) (1494) (1612) Nominal Exchange rate, Average INR per USD Population Characteristics, 2011 Census Proportion (%) of All ages Proportion (%) of > = 65+ years Proportion (%) of > = 60+ years Proportion (%) < 14 years Proportion (%) < 19 years Proportion (%) of All Ages M F 2.67 M 2.79 F 4.72 M 4.36 F M F M F 69 Rural 31 Urban

4 Population Pyramid, 2011 A g e I n t e r v a l Percent Male Female A g e I n t e r v a l Population Pyramid, 2001 Percent Male Female A g e I n t e r v a l Population Pyramid, 1991 Percent Male Female Population Pyramid, 1981 A g e I n t e r v a l Percent Male Female

5 India (2011-2): Workers, Households, Poverty Description Figures Region Number of Labourers, Workers, Unemployed per 1000 persons NSSO 68 th Round, July 2011-June 2012 Propn. of Labourers (M,F); Workers (M,F) (per cent); e.g 55 (25) per cent of males (females) in rural areas were labourers Out of Workers those that are Self Employed, Regular Wage / Salaried, Casual labour M;F denotes Potential Coverage Average Household Size (persons) Female Headed Households (per cent) Poverty Line, Monthly Per Capita Expenditure, INR (USD) Proportion (%) and Number (mn) of Poor 406, 399, 17 Rural 367, 355, 34 Urban 395, 386, 22 Total (55,25); (54,25) Rural (56,16); (55,15) Urban (55,10,36); (59,6,35) Rural (42,43,15); (43,43,14) Urban 4.5 Rural 4.0 Urban 4.3 Total 12 Rural 12 Urban 816 (17.03 USD) Rural 1000 (20.87 USD) Urban 25.7 %, mn Rural 13.7 %, 52.8 mn Urban 21.9 %, Total

6 Social Imperative Higher incidence of poverty and destitution among old or aged resulting from individuals myopia are unable to foresee decline in earnings capability and thus may not insure for old-age consumption requirements by saving from income when young Increased risk perception vulnerability despite growth in incomes inadequate savings (longevity risk); episodic expenses (health / morbidity risk); isolation, nuclear families (empty nest, physical security risk);

7 Core Objectives Poverty relief anti-poverty measures Consumption smoothing income replacement Insurance supplementary benefits

8 3-tier or 3 Pillar approach Tier 4: Informal intrafamily, intergenerational financial and non-financial support Tier 3: Personal insurance: Voluntary, Fully Funded, Savings, Taxed at normal rates Tier 2: Savings and Co-insurance: Personal Savings or Occupational Plans, Regulated, Mandatory, Funded, Taxed at lower or reduced rates Tier 1: Redistributive: Mandatory, Minimum Pension, Flat, Payroll / Tax financed, Tax exempt Tier 0: Basic income, Anti life-time poverty

9 Managerial (Administration) Arrangement Public (Social) programmes National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP) Swatantrata Sainik Samman Pension Senior Citizen Savings Scheme (SCSS): 0.5 per cent higher interest on deposits by / for the elderly Non-contributory programme Government (Employer) sponsored programmes - Civilian employees [also covering public sector corporations (including banks)] who joined before January 01, 2004, defence employees Co-contributory (Employer Employee) programmes Civilian employees (NPS) joining service on or after January 01, 2004 EPF&MP, CMPF&MP, J&KEPF, SPF, ATPPF&PFS, NPS-private, NPS-lite (Swavlamban, Atal Pension Yojana) Personal savings and annuity plans GPF, PPF, NPS-Private - savings-investment in long-term schemes managed by fund managers (under PFRDA oversight)

10 Financing and Regulation Pension funds long term debt market consolidation of the capital market improved corporate governance and corporate social responsibility Regulation of pension fund, its organisation, its investments, consumer grievances, regulator as a guarantor of fairness and justice

11 Sustainability ratios Passivity ratio (number of years in retirement : number of years in work) Replacement ratio (Pension : Wages) Dependency ratio (demographics) population, system (number of retirees : number of workers)

12 Y e a r Age-dependency Ratio Persons in age-groups 0 14 and 60+ Persons in age-group & & Y e a r Persons in age-group Persons in age-group 60+ Support Ratio

13 Economic Dependency Ratio Census National Sample Survey Office Year Dependents Per 1000 Workers Year Dependents Per 1000 Workers PS + SS PS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

14 National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP), Dec 2015 Below Poverty Line (BPL) Households: Eligibility for Benefits Benefits Scheme Periodicity Beneficiaries Beneficiary (INR) Other Conditions Age (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme (IGNOAPS) Indira Gandhi National Widow Pension Scheme (IGNWPS) Indira Gandhi National Disability Pension Scheme (IGNDPS) National Family Benefit Scheme (NFBS) a. >= 60 and =< 79 monthly b. >= 80 a. >= 40 and =< 79 monthly b. >= 80 a. >= 18 and Severe / multiple (80%) =< 79 monthly disability b. >= =< Age at death of One-time primary bread winner =< 59 lump-sum a. 200 b mn a. 300 b mn a. 300 b mn mn Annapurna Scheme (AS) >= 65 Those not covered under OAPS monthly 10 kgs. of foodgrain 0.93 mn

15 Scheme-wise Beneficiaries from NSAP Schemes, mn Scheme IGNOAPS IGNWPS IGNDPS NFBS Annapurna Year Scheme The Difference of Total, from the Sum of Female and Male, constitute the Transgenders Sanctioned Pensioners and New Applicants Scheme Status Gender Age Total Female Male < 80 >= 80 IGNOAPS Sanctioned New Appl IGNWPS Sanctioned New Appl IGNDPS Sanctioned New Appl

16 Details of Freedom Fighters Pension (Swatantrata Sainik Samman Pension Scheme) Sl. No. Category of freedom fighters or their kin Total pension (per month) before enhancement Total pension (per month) w.e.f. 15 August, 2016* i ii Ex-Andaman political prisoners/spouses Freedom fighters who suffered outside British India (other than Indian National Army (INA)) / spouses iii Other freedom fighters (including INA) iv Dependent Parents (each) / Each unmarried and unemployed daughter (up to three) (dependent parents) (daughters) 50% of the sum that would have been admissible to freedom fighter i.e. in the range of to

17 Year (Apr Mar) Swatantrata Sainik Samman Pension (As on December 31) Beneficiaries Nos. Expenditure INR bn Railway Passes INR mn Home Repair INR mn

18 Year Pub. Sect. Workers (millions) Population (millions) Col. 2 / Col. 3 * 1000 (1) (2) (3) (4) , , Government Trend Growth Rate Retirement Benefits / Tot. Expenditure to Federal All Provinces Combined Public Sector Workers Structure of Employees Cost to Establishment, (Federal Government) Compensation Structure (per cent) Year Pension Wages Expenditure on Retirement Benefits, %

19 States TGR Pensions ( to , ) Pensions / Total Revenue (1987-8, ) Andhra Pradesh Bihar Goa Gujarat Haryana Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Arunachal Pradesh Assam Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Sikkim Tripura

20 Scope and Mandate of Provident / Pension Funds in India Legislation / Act Applicability Members Corpus (INR bn) (1) (2) (3) (4) Employees Provident Fund and Miscellaneous Provisions (EPF&MP)Act, 1952 The Coal Mines Provident Fund and Miscellaneous Provisions (CMPF&MP) Act, 1948 The Seamen s Provident Fund (SPF) Act, 1966 The Assam Tea Plantation Provident Fund and Pensions Fund Scheme (ATPPF&PFS) Act, 1955 The Jammu & Kashmir Employees Provident Fund (J&KEPF) Act, 1961 The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) Act, Industries (except in Jammu & Kashmir) employing 20 or more people 913 Units in private and public sector Seamen engaged in shipping industry (merchant navy) All tea estates or tea gardens Workers in Jammu & Kashmir province in non-pensionable service (a) The National Pension System (b) Pension Schemes not Regulated under any Other Acts As on 31/03/2015 PF: mn PF: 6209 PS: mn PS: 2385 DLI: 157 As on 31/12/ mn As on 31/03/ PF: As on 31/03/2015 PF: PS: 0.16 DLI: 1.16 As on 31/03/2016 Total: mn CG: mn SG: mn Pvt. Sect.: mn NPS-Lite: mn

21 Scope and Mandate of Provident / Pension Funds in India Legislation / Act Applicability Members Corpus (INR bn) (1) (2) (3) (4) Employees Provident Fund and Miscellaneous Provisions (EPF&MP)Act, 1952 The Coal Mines Provident Fund and Miscellaneous Provisions (CMPF&MP) Act, 1948 The Seamen s Provident Fund (SPF) Act, 1966 The Assam Tea Plantation Provident Fund and Pensions Fund Scheme (ATPPF&PFS) Act, 1955 The Jammu & Kashmir Employees Provident Fund (J&KEPF) Act, 1961 The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) Act, Industries (except in Jammu & Kashmir) employing 20 or more people 926 Units in private and public sector Seamen engaged in shipping industry (merchant navy) All tea estates or tea gardens Workers in Jammu & Kashmir province in non-pensionable service (a) The National Pension System (b) Pension Schemes not Regulated under any Other Acts As on 31/03/2013 PF: mn PF: 4367 PS: 80.8 mn PS: 1834 DLI: 121 As on 31/12/ mn As on 31/03/ PF: As on 31/03/2012 PF: PS:.048 DLI: 0.89 As on 31/03/2014 Total: CG: SG: Pvt. Sect.: NPS-Lite:

22 EPF&MP, 1952 CMPF&MP, 1948 Contribution, Pensioners, and Benefits Contribution (%) Avg. Annual Scheme Pensioners Ben. in INR Total Pension Fund (USD) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 8.33 (or max. of INR Member, 3.57 Employer: per annum) mn Seamens Provident Fund, 1966 ATPPF&PFS, 1955 PFRDA, 2013 Employee: Survivor, 1.53 CG: mn Employer: 12 Employee: 12 CG: 1.66 (or max. of INR 3200 per annum) Employer: 12 Employee: mn (231) Employer: 12 Member Employee: (771) CG: 1.16 (a) CG, SG, Pvt. Sect. Employer: 10 Employee: 10 (a) NPS-Lite CG.: INR 1000 pa for to Worker: pa Survivor (74)

23 EPF&MP, 1952 CMPF&MP, 1948 Contribution, Pensioners, and Benefits Contribution (%) Avg. Annual Scheme Pensioners Ben. in INR Total Pension Fund (USD) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 8.33 (or max. of INR Member, 2.97 Employer: per annum) mn Seamens Provident Fund, 1966 ATPPF&PFS, 1955 PFRDA, 2013 Employee: Survivor, 1.43 CG: mn Employer: 12 Employee: 12 CG: 1.66 (or max. of INR 3200 per annum) Employer: 12 Employee: mn (216) Employer: 12 Member Employee: (604) CG: 1.16 (a) CG, SG, Pvt. Sect. Employer: 10 Employee: 10 (a) NPS-Lite CG.: INR 1000 pa for to Worker: pa Survivor (99)

24 Summary: Programmes for income support for elderly Non-contributory NSAP for elderly, widowed, and disabled; Freedom Fighters Public sector workers in service before January 01, 2004, defence workers (defined benefit that is wage and inflation indexed) Contributory Mandatorily applicable to workers in private sector and public sector (excluding defence workers, and joining service on or after January 01, 2004) co-contributed by employee and employer Voluntary participation - with employee-employer co-contribution under EPF&MP and PFRDA with only own contribution in PPF, NPS-Lite (Swavlamban), NPS-Private

25 Summary: Beneficiaries, Expenditure, Benefits, Pension Type Beneficiaries Public Expenditure Benefits NSAP ~ 2.4 % of Popln < 0.70 % of Tot. Pub. Exp (C + S) < Rural Poverty Line (816) per month SSSPS ~ 0.01 % of Popln 0.05 % of Federal Govt. Exp INR per annum Non-contributory ~ 1.25 % of Popln 7.2 % of Tot. Pub. Exp (C + S) > Annual Per capita GDP Contributory ~ 4.25 % of Popln < 0.1 % of Federal Govt. Exp. < Poverty line (from EPFO)

26 Age-Groupwise Percentage Distribution of Workers and Pensioners (Federal Government) Age Groups in Years All Civil Defence % Nos. in Lakh % Nos. in Lakh As on Workers 20 and < and < and < and < Others 0.6 > 60 and < (of which are pre ) (Post %) 19.2 Pensioners > 70 and < > 80 and < (7.01 Family About 21 %) (4.82 Family About 26 %) > 90 and < Others

27 Summary System dependency ratio in public sector exceeds 1 (more retirees or pensioners than workers) Age dependency ratio (for India) appears favourable, but economic dependency (nonworkers to workers ratio) has not shown any improvement. Social pensions cover less than 12 per cent of poor. Social pensions are markedly deficient to address poverty. Labour employment in Public sector has declined And, New civilian recruits moved out of PAYG system to contributory system. Optimistic estimate for coverage under any provident fund / pension system is less than 15 per cent of workforce But, most contributory systems are inadequately funded or inadequately protected. High replacement ratio for those in PAYG, but very low for those in contributory systems. Expectation of life has improved (decline in fertility rate, decline in mortality) Further, expectation of life at older ages has risen more With unchanging age of superannuation, this raises the passivity ratio (number of years in retirement / number of years at work).

28 Tentative Suggestions on the Way Forward To reduce errors of omission and commission With current allocation of resources type-i error (error of omission, exclusion of eligible) is high. But type-ii error (error of commission, inclusion of ineligible) is also high because of inadequate socio-economic mapping. At this stage, resist temptation to convert all in-kind benefits into cash benefit / income transfer Benchmark social pensions (assistance) to poverty line (say, at least at 2/3 rd of poverty line) Pare / rationalise benefits under the PAYG system track life time cost of employee incentivise complete shift to contributory system Encourage work force participation raise mandatory age of superannuation (?) synchronise with expectation of life at average age of joining work

29 Summary: NSAP- Coverage, Funding, and Benefits Upon comparing the number of beneficiaries with potentially eligible poor persons, the coverage under OAPS (22.7 million) appears to be satisfactorily close to target (22.8 million). However, coverage in WPS (4.9 million) appears to have surpassed target (3.9 million), while coverage in DPS (0.74 million) seems significantly below target (5.9 million). NSAP covers almost 2.4 per cent of the population, but total expenditure on this programme is unlikely to exceed 0.70 per cent of the combined expenditure of federal and provincial governments. It appears that NSAP may be afflicted by high probability of errors, both of Type I (of omission of deserving persons) and Type II (of inclusion of undeserving persons). Total (federal plus provincial) assistance provided to individual beneficiaries, in several provinces falls significantly short of even the rural poverty line of INR 816 (monthly per capita expenditure).

30 Summary: Non-contributory Schemes - Coverage, Funding, and Benefits The non-contributory pension programme covers a large section of public sector workers constituting less than 2.5 per cent of extant 463 million Indian workers. Average annual pension benefit in the public sector exceeds per capita GDP. Retirement benefits for public sector ex-workers account for more than 7.2 per cent of combined public expenditure of the federal and provincial governments. Some provinces namely, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and West Bengal are facing an acute burden on account of expenditure on retirement benefits that exceed one-sixth of their total expenditure. In 19 provinces, out of 28 in , expenditure on retirement benefits exceeded interest payments, and emerged as the most critical element of public expenditure.

31 Summary: Contributory Schemes - Coverage, Funding, and Benefits Domain oversight over contributory schemes is exercised under different legislations that are specific to employees in a region or sector (for example, J & K, Coal Mines, Assam Tea Plantations, Seamens etc.). Most of these face a decline in membership. Only contributory schemes under the oversight of EPFO and PFRDA report a rise in membership. A careful reading of legislative domains for the contributory schemes suggests that these effectively exclude self-employed and casual labourers from its ambit of mandatory participation. The objective of social security is ill-served by continuing with a plethora of legislations when membership in sector / region specific provident funds is dwindling, but the workforce has expanded considerably. There appears to be a strong case to consolidate the region and sector specific provident fund legislations under some umbrella legislation that may offer protection to a wider work-force.

32 Classification of workers by type and region of employment, and Gender Description Rural Urban Male Female Male Female Self Employed Regular Wage / Salaried Casual Labour Total Those in regular wage or salaried activities constitute less than eight percent of workers in rural areas. The corresponding number in urban areas is significantly higher at 43 percent. Note that these persons drawing a regular wage / salary are the potential workers who could, at best, hope to be covered under largely employment linked system of pension benefits during old age. This potential for combined rural (26.5 mn) and urban (56.9 mn) areas is estimated at 83.4 mn persons or 18 per cent of workers. In other words this is the maximum possible coverage (potential) in wage / salary linked schemes (both noncontributory and contributory) including private sector participants of NPS and voluntary members of EPF.

33 Summary: Contributory Schemes - Coverage, Funding, and Benefits The mandates are administered as employer-employee co-contributory schemes. Theoretically then, the maximum possible coverage (potential) in wage / salary linked schemes (both non-contributory and contributory) including private sector participants of NPS and voluntary members of EPF may not exceed 83.4 million. In , there were 80.8 million accounts in the pension scheme administered by the EPFO. The annual pension benefit to a retiree emerging out of the EPFO system appears to fall short of the annualised poverty line. Latest valuation report of the pension scheme of EPFO for year suggests underfunding to the tune of INR 616 billion (almost 57 per cent of the corpus). Federal government contribution to all contributory schemes is unlikely to exceed 0.1 per cent of its total expenditure. Rate of contribution (for example in EPFO scheme) has been periodically ratchetedup. But no attempt is made to pare benefits. This arrangement connotes a continual increase in taxation of successive younger members joining the scheme.

34 Population Pyramid: Rebus Sic Stantibus (Latin for Things Thus Standing ) INDIA 1971 INDIA Age Interval in Years Age Interval in Years Percent Percent Female Male Female Male INDIA 1991 INDIA Age Interval in Years Age Interval in Years Percent Percent Female Male Female Male