Thailand Social Protection: Risk, Vulnerability and Institutional Assessment

Transcription

1 Draft Proposal for Thailand Social Protection: Risk, Vulnerability and Institutional Assessment

2 (Draft) Proposal Under the CDP-SP Project Thailand Social Protection: Risk, Vulnerability and Institutional Assessment BY Thailand Development Research Institute Contact Person Dr. Amrnar Siamwalia Distinguished Scholar Thailand Developmezt Research Iiistitute 565 Rarnkhmhaeng Rd. Wangthcngla~g, Bangkok Thailand Tel: Fax: ammar@tdri.or.th

3 Proposal Under the CDP-SP Project Thailand Social Protection: Risk, Vulnerability and Institutional Assessment Rationale and Background People are exposed to inany types of risk that can affect their economic and social wellbeing and may push them into poverty. Risks can be classified into three levels: micro, meso, and macro levels. Risks at the micro level or the idiosyncratic risks such as illness, injury, disability, old age, and death affect individual and household level. Risks at the meso level such as epidemic, drought, flooding, forest fire, riot, and pollution affect household in the same areas or communities. Some types of risks at the meso level may evolve into risks at the macro level in which they affect the entire population. The effective mechanisms that help people cope and mitigate these risks will reduce their levels of vulnerability. The concept of vulnerability has gained attention recently from both policy and academic circles. There is a view held by many that relying on the standard income and expenditure poverty measures do not adequately reflect the nature and extent of deprivation that exists in many societies. Monetary poverty captures only one dimension of deprivation, while there are other dimensions including malnutrition, poor health, lack of economic and educational opportunities and limited political voice. Not all dimensions are relevant for all societies, but there is interest in measuring or assessing deprivation and vulnerability to deprivation more holistically. The terms of deprivation and vulnerability are distinct concepts. The former describes a current state of suffering, while the later refers to future likelihood of suffering a shock or bad outcome (such as deprivation). Both concepts have gained attention recently from both policy and academic circles in Thailand and elsewhere. There have been attempts to quantify various indexes of well being, perhaps the most well know variant being the use of the Human Development Index by the United Nations, published for over 100 countries in the Human Development Reports. An attempt to assess vulnerability to poverty in Thailand was conducted in 2001 by Bidani and Richter. Other related studies were done by Jorgensen (i 999), Dercon (200!, 2003 j, Devereux (2002), and Chaudhury (2000,2001) etc. To mitigate deprivation and vulnerability, different policy mechanisms may be ceeded. Thailand has various types of social protection mechanisms to mitigate deprivation and vulnerability and to help people cope with risks-+.g. health, life cycle, and unemployment risks. Each group of people is covered by different level of protection. Among the work cohort (or taxpayers), government employee is the group that is known to enjoy quite generous types (see table 1) and levels of social protection benefits without explicit payroll tax. On the other hand, workers in agiiculture sector and employees in the informal sector, who are alleged to have iower tax revenue contribution, seem to get the lowest level of social protection from the government.

4 The social protection mechanisms under different public institutions shown in Table 1 are somewhat based on ability to pay of the work cohorts. Private employees, for example, call afford monthly payment to the government are protected against many risks, in return. Table 1 Social Protection Coverage by Types of Benefits in 2005 rivate employees in Source: TDFU. Note: Jmeans Yes. *~racticall~, permanent employees in governmint organizations and state enterprises get tenure without a contract. Table 2 Number of Beneficiaries by Target Group - cash 2,000 Baht (maximum 3 times a year) to families whose members are HIV - cash 4,000 Baht to HIV infected families to invest in the group occupation. - cash 3,000 Baht to HIV infected families to invest in agriculture business. - monthly allowance to families whose

5 Source: Department of Public Welfare ( ). Note: Figures in parentheses are expenditures in millions of Baht. 7 However, Thai government also provides other social protection mechanisms or social assistance programs to mitigate deprivation and vulnerability of those who are not covered by contributory social benefits but are facing difficult circumstances. The target groups among those include children, disadvantaged women, seniors, homeless and beggars, disabled individuals, people suffered from natural disaster or terrorism, families in need, minorities and the poor. The benefits provided to these groups are cash benefits, in-kind benefits (e.g. training and emergency temporary accommodation), and loans that carried over by the Ministry of Sociai Development and Human Security, Ministry of Labor, and Community Development Department. Table 2 shows some types of cash benefits and the budget the Department of Public Welfare allocated to these target groups. It is known that the number of beneficiaries and budget allocated have been low. However, what is not known is the number of those target groups or eligible people. The most difficult and arguable part of specifying the number of eligible people is to determine who are eligible for what types of social protection programs. Eligibility determination of private employee, public servants and state-enterprise employee welfare programs is not a difficult job because the work status of the individual legislatively marks helshe out for a particular welfare program. With a clear concept of deprivation and vulnerability, we can determine who are eligible for what types of social protection program, and consequently, the number of eligible people under such programs. As mentioned before, many public institutions are responsible for social protection programs for the vulnerable and the poor. Many of the programs could be exact the same, for example the occupation training, but handled by different institutions. Such overlapping could result to inefficient use of budget. Not to mention that most of the programs have never been evaluated the impact on trainees' earning or well being. In this study, many of the social programs taken care by various institutions will be reviewed. The cost of the programs per beneficiary will be calculated. The study will also try to explore primarily how such programs benefit the participant. The findings - will help consultant team draw ccnclusion and recommend for policy reform. Objectives of the Study and Sources of Data The study of deprivation and vulnerability will focus on concept of deprivation and vulnerability and examining practical approaches to measuring the relevant dimensions of deprivation in Thailand. The Institutional Assessment will focus on key programs and institutional forming the social protection system and, to the extent possible, will seek to: (a) Estimate the size of the eligible populations for key programs; (b) Determine the number of beneficiaries of programs, and the appropriateness and adequacy of benefits; (c) Examine the benefit incidence of program benefits, with particular attention to the lowest 20 percent of the recipient population;

6 (d) Estimate the cost of programs, divided into administrative and transfer costs, and compare to number of beneficiaries; and (e) Provide concrete recommendations on ways to improve the social protection programs and policies analyzed, and possible ways to finance social protection programs. The primary sources of information are the administrative and program-level data maintained by the central ministries and province offices. Additional information on the programs at the province and Tambon level will be collected by visiting three selected provinces in the north, northeast and central regions. Selected provinces will be concluded by the consultants and Working Group. Project Coverage I. Undertake literature review The pertinent international and Thai literature pertaining to measuring aspects of deprivation or lack of wellbeing, and vulnerability will be reviewed--e.g., the work done by Jorgensen (1999), Bidani and Richter (2001), Dercon (2001,2003), Devereux (2002), and Chaudhury (2000,200 1). Particular attention will be paid to indicators and measured that have been proposed or are being used. 2. Conceptualize deprivation and vulnerability for Thailand In this part, the concept to deprivation and vulnerability will be architected. This allows public to have clear vision about deprivation and vulnerability. The study will suggest possible way of measuring the relevant dimensions of deprivation in Thailand. 3. Determining institutions andprograms for analysis The consultant will work with the Working Group and the PCU to determine which key institutions and programs will be the focus of the data collection and analysis. Candidates would include MOSD, MOL, and CDD programs and other significant interventions such as pension scheme, the 30-baht health scheme and the Village Welfare Fund, among others. Finalization of the analysis plan will be documented in an inception report. 4. Collect institutional and program data The consultant will work with the Working Group and the PCU to collect programlevel and institutional management information from the selected programs. Data should be collected, if possible, for each program on: Program mission, objectives and goals; Total annual costs, divided into administrative and benefit costs (overall and by province for each program), Number and types of administrative workers per year (overall and by province); Average salaries and remuneration of these workers per year (overall and by province); Number of beneficiaries (overall, by province, and by gender and other socioeconomic characteristics if possible) The Working Group will facilitate the basic collection, assisted by the PCU, however, the consultant will collect and process the data.

7 5. Undertake analysis The consultant will analyze the program level information and analyze the information according to the objectives (a) through (d) identified above. Particular attention should be given to determining the cost-effectiveness of programs and their benefit incidence. 6. Develop conclusions and recommendations The main conclusions and recommendations should be determined jointly with the Working Group and the PCU based on the analysis. In particular, recommendations for reform of programs to improve targeting, coverage, and efficiency should be included, as well as recommendations for management and policy changes in light of the ongoing decentralization policies of the government. Further recommendation will be on possible ways of financing the reformed social protection programs.,- Outputs and Timeline Consultant will report to a task leader identified by the Working Group. The task leader will facilitate fiequent communication between the consultant and the Working Group and component task teams as needed. The Assessment will consist of: (i) an inception report that details the study approach and data sources following consultation and agreement with the task leader and the Working Group; (ii) a progress report reviewing the progress to data and remaining analytical steps and summarizing the administrative data collected along with preliminary analysis that has been conducted, and (iii) a final report containing the findings of the analysis and recommendations. The timeline shall be as follows: Project Team Dr. Arnmar Siamwalla is a project leader and Dr. Worawan Chandoevwit and Dr. Niramon Sutummakid (from Tharnmasat University) are core researchers. Three researchers from TDRI, who have accumulated experiences on social protection research, are also involved in the project.