NAFTA at 24. University of Texas at El Paso. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso,
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1 University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance NAFTA at 24 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Other Business Commons Comments: Presented at the NAFTA Modernization Conference, March 8, 2018, on the UTEP campus. Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr., "NAFTA at 24" (2018). Border Region Modeling Project This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics and Finance at It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of For more information, please contact
2 NAFTA at 24 Tom Fullerton, Professor & Trade in the Americas Chair Department of Economics & Finance University of Texas at El Paso
3 NAFTA A 24-year-old trade agreement. Still badly misunderstood. Claims of U.S. labor market damage. Claims of U.S. income deterioration. Is NAFTA bad for the USA?
4 The Pancho Villa Trade Treaty Trade = Better Quality, More Varieties, & Lower Prices Involves Uncertainties & Unknowns Almost Always Controversial It is also Controversial in Mexico! What has Really Happened?
5 Labor Market Conditions Have Labor Market Conditions Worsened in the USA?
6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
9 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 Unemployment Rates not that Bad? Are Jobs Deserting the USA?
12 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
14 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
16 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
18 Income Performance Have USA Incomes Weakened under NAFTA?
19 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
21 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
22 International Trade As Marvin Gaye Might Ask, What s Going On?
23 Source: International Monetary Fund
24 Source: International Monetary Fund
25 Source: International Monetary Fund
26 Would Protectionism Erase the Balance of Payments Deficit? Minneapolis Federal Reserve: Not while we run a Twin Federal Budget Deficit
27 USA & Mexico Economic Adversaries or Complementary Allies?
28 Source: OECD & UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
29 Source: OECD & UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
30 Economic Reality Most USA:Mexico Trade is in Intermediate Goods => Intra-Industry Trade USA & Mexico Manufacture Together Strategic Specialization & Logistics
31 What about Sectors Suffering due to Trade with Mexico? AGRICULTURE & MANUFACTURING
32 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Data on U.S. employment in agriculture are from the Current Population Survey and data on U.S. employment in manufacturing are from Current Employment Statistics.
33 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
34 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
35 Sources: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project using BEA data (value added and GDP) and BLS data (agricultural and total civilian employment from the Current Population Survey with manufacturing employment from Current Employment Statistics).
36 Job Losses? There are Many More Job Losses due to Technology than due to Trade!
37 Who Gains Most from Trade? Low Income Consumers benefit most from Trade due to Increased Purchasing Power!
38 Beyond that, the USA Gains From: Trade Technology Immigration
39 NAFTA Modernization Areas Allow More Energy Trade & Investment Stronger Labor and Environmental Standards Enforcement Greater Digital Commerce Flows Services Trade Liberalization for Health Care, Telecommunications, Broadcasting, Education, and Transportation
40 Displaced Worker Assistance Universal Basic Income and Other Policies Universal Wage Insurance Lifetime Worker Training and Re-training Job Loss ESOP Programs Greater Health Insurance Coverage Removal of Criminal Background Checks More Streamlined & Fewer Lcnsng Rqmts
41 Displaced Worker Assistance Uniform Worker Certification Programs Removal of Home Ownership Tax Bias (Renters are More Mobile) Trade and Technology Improve Living Standards, but Benefits are Uneven
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