How We Will Win the Constitutional Amendment. Stewards Training February 22, 2016

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Tabitha Hancock
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1 How We Will Win the Constitutional Amendment Stewards Training February 22, 2016

2 Agenda I. What the Amendment Does II. III. IV. How To Pay for it with NO Tax Increases What We ve Done to Put Ourselves in the Best Possible Situation What we Know About the 2016 Election V. What Our Campaign Looks Like

3 What the Amendment Does Last Session: ACR3/SCR184 Passed January 11, the last day of the legislative year. All Democrats in favor, all Republicans against. Exception: Dancer (R-12) abstained, several were absent This session: ACR109/SCR2

4 What the Amendment Does Amend Article VII by adding a new Section IV to read as follows: The State shall make its annual required contribution to each retirement system and pension fund for public employees administered by the State The annual normal contribution plus the annual unfunded accrued liability contribution together shall be the annual required contribution.

5 First Full Payment: FY2021 The State shall commence making its annual required contribution in full to each retirement system and pension fund for public employees administered by the State in the State fiscal year that commences July 1, 2021 and shall make the required contribution in full in each fiscal year thereafter.

6 We re Getting Good at Fractions Commencing July 1, 2017, the State shall make a payment to each retirement system and pension fund of at least 4/8ths of the full annual required contribution for each system and fund for that State fiscal year and a payment that increases by at least an additional 1/8th of the full annual required contribution for each system and fund for each subsequent fiscal year until payment of the full contribution is required to be made commencing July 1, 2021.

7 Quarterly Payments The required contribution to be made by the State shall be paid in each State fiscal year to each system and fund on the following schedule: at least 25 percent by August 1; at least 50 percent by November 1; at least 75 percent by February 1; and at least 100 percent by May 1.

8 Non-forfeitable Right Vested members of a retirement system who were members of a system or fund prior to May 21, 2010 and who attained five years of service credit in the system or fund and were provided pursuant to law with a non-forfeitable right to receive benefits shall have an indefeasible nonforfeitable right to receive benefits as provided under the laws governing the system or fund upon the attainment of five years of service credit in the retirement system or fund.

9 State Appropriations Amend Article VIII, Section II, paragraph 2: No general appropriation law for a fiscal year shall be enacted without including appropriations for the State contributions to each retirement system and pension fund for public employees administered by the State required pursuant to other provisions of this Constitution.

10 Emergency Clause Article VIII, Section II, paragraph 3: This paragraph shall not be construed to refer to any money that has been or may be deposited with this State by the government of the United States. Nor shall anything in this paragraph contained apply to the creation of any debts or liabilities for purposes of war, or to repel invasion, or to suppress insurrection or to meet an emergency caused by disaster or act of God.

11 Real Emergencies Only Addition to that Clause: Nor shall anything in this paragraph apply to the indefeasible obligation of the State to make contributions to each retirement system and pension fund for public employees administered by the State as required pursuant to other provisions of this Constitution.

12 Christie comes out swinging Watch:

13 Now let s hear the real story In FY2015 Budget, Christie cut the required payment from $3.1 billion in Chapter 78 to $1.3 billion. To do so, he unilaterally re-wrote language in Chapter 78, saying that the $1.3 billion contribution represented a three-tenths payment. Democrats wanted a faster ramp up. So in Christie s last budget year, which would have been 5/10ths, they replaced it with 4/8ths.

14 Christie FY15 Plan vs. Constitutional Amendment (Est.)

15 About that massive tax hike New revenue sources vs. new revenue needed for pensions Yearly averages, FY2017 FY2021

16 NJ Strengths and Weaknesses on Ballot Questions We get to: Write the question voters will see on the ballot Write the interpretive statement voters will see on the ballot with it We have no say over: Where it appears on the ballot (law) Where it is in relation to other questions that may be on the ballot (Secretary of State)

17 Key Takeaways from Research Focus on holding politicians accountable Focus on no new benefits Focus on values (fairness, paying our bills) Focus on no new tax burden

18 November 2016 Electorate 3.7 million voters 30% will not vote for amendments Drop off is traditionally higher in strongly Democratic areas That means about 2.6 million votes on the Amendment 1.3 million votes to win

19 Campaign Research: Voter modeling, opposition research Union member education campaign 350,000 public sector members 800,000 total pension beneficiaries 400,000 union members not in state pension plans Plus household members Non-union member campaign Paid media

20 Keys to campaign Drive union membership to vote for Amendment Drive family dependent on pensions and benefits to vote for Amendment Identify voters who will support but are likely to drop-off and drive them to vote for Amendment Identify third-party validators Out organize & Outspend business interests

21 Three scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Public sector union members and pensioners turnout Equal to general population 10 points higher than gen public 20 points higher than gen public Pensioner house hold support Public sector union members and pensioners vote share Drop-off supporters identified and vote down ballot One in three supporters brings 1 family member 60%, same drop off as gen public Half of supporters bring 1 family member 66%, one-third less drop off than gen pub Three in four supporters bring 1 family member 75%, half the drop off as gen public 50, , ,000

22 Three scenarios

23 Business Interests Gearing Up Business groups announced on Friday they are establishing a group, Opportunity NJ. It is able to solicit unlimited, secret donations.

24 Union member campaign Door knocks, phone calls and mail to union members in April, May and June Unprecedented in NJ GOTV in September and October focusing on voting down ballot

ASSEMBLY CONCURRENT RESOLUTION No. 109 STATE OF NEW JERSEY. 217th LEGISLATURE PRE-FILED FOR INTRODUCTION IN THE 2016 SESSION

ASSEMBLY CONCURRENT RESOLUTION No. 0 STATE OF NEW JERSEY th LEGISLATURE PRE-FILED FOR INTRODUCTION IN THE 0 SESSION Sponsored by: Assemblyman VINCENT PRIETO District (Bergen and Hudson) Assemblywoman ANGELICA